Posted by tlowster on 2/17/2020 2:35:00 PM (view original):
Posted by dedelman on 5/4/2019 6:03:00 PM (view original):
Let's see... he's a 22 year-old international, so he won't develop much if any more, and he's an SP4 innings eater. That's good value, but I wouldn't get too excited.
This guy, on the other hand, has been on the MVP ballot (ie, top 5) every full season he's been in the majors, signed for $4.5M late in the season when everyone else who could see him was out of prospect dollars. And I bet someone else out there can top him.
Man! That is awesome. I know many owners play that waiting game and end up stuck with $10+ million in dead money, but I assume the above referenced guy was signed for $4.5 because the Intl class for that season was a great class. Is that accurate?
You are correct; 5 IFAs got $18M+ that season, and another 5 got $10-15M. Hell, another 13 got $4.5-10M.
Well... they were expensive, but I don't know about good. Ten years after signing:
$26.8M-- solid, not special RF, career OPS = .790
$22.6M-- 2B that has fought his defense to a draw despite a glove of 69, OPS = .770 (this was my own overpriced signing)
$19.4M-- SP5-type, performance has been below average but above replacement over 180 IP/year. Beware the 22-yo INTL.
$18.9M-- Very solid SP2, ERA about 15% better than league average over 180 IP per year.
$18M-- Tweener left sided IF with a big injury history (HE=41); overmatched at SS, excellent defensive 3B but OPS = .700 not the bat you want there.
$15.1M-- Homer-prone SP5 who couldn't cut it in SFE, looking for a contract after his release.
$12M-- legitimate power 1B with a lifetime SLG of .550 and an OPS of .900. Impressive even in CIN.
$11.2M-- 23 yo IFA went to ML quickly and has had a nice 8 year career as a U for all the positions that don't need an arm;
$11M-- Adequate LF, careeer OPS .755
$10M-- weak but not unplayable defensive 2B with a career OPS of .800.
This seems to have been a very deep but not top-heavy IFA class. It shows that (a) IFAs are hard to evaluate with any precision, and (b) because of that, depth draws money out of owners moreso than top-heavy-ness.
Anybody out there want to comment as to whether this feels like a typical outcome for a set of IFA bids?