It's my understanding that there are diminishing returns beginning with the 2nd minute of practice in anything. Very early on, admin (Tarek) said something in a dev chat along the lines of "below 20 minutes of practice in any given category diminishing returns won't affect your outcomes very much" and then it became a forum fact that diminishing returns kick in at 20 minutes. I'm fairly certain that the way he described it - and of course seble could have changed things, who knows - it's a constant curve but it doesn't get steep until you get somewhere above 20. But I think he chose that particular number somewhat arbitrarily, and then a bunch of users got way more attached to it, specifically, than ever intended.

old warrior, old resorter, old somebody did a "regression analysis" or some other fancy term and found that diminishing returns starts somewhere way below 20 for IQ but it wasn't significant until 20.

Posted by shoe3 on 5/6/2019 11:16:00 AM (view original):
I haven’t tested closely either, it’s just based on eyeball observations. There may well not be a diminishing return directly on the value of the 20th minute vs the 10th minute in set practice; as I said, it’s probably pretty small under 20, if it exists. But there is kind of an undeniable built-in diminishing return effect to cumulative set practice anyway, given that it takes a lot more cumulative effort to move from B to A+ than it takes to move from D to C+.

thius is for sure true - moving up in the B+, A-, A range takes more and more minutes per grade improvement.

This guy started out straight Fs in the sets I run (flex, press/zone combo). I use 20 for flex and zone, 10 for press. He moved up to C in flex and zone this morning after the 15th “day” of the season.

If there is no direct diminishing return effect on set minutes prior to the 20th minute, he should move up to C in press after day 30, the final game of the regular season. If he moves to C in press before that game, it means there is a diminishing return effect somewhere between the 10th minute and the 20th minute. I’ll try to remember to keep an eye out, and post when he does move to C.

I think your experimental design is likely flawed. It assumes that "F" is a single value, and not a range. We know the reality is that each IQ level is, in fact, a range.

It's possible that F is really just code for "0.00" and A+ is code for "100.00," but we don't know that. It's also possible that recruits are always generated with IQs at the bottom of a range. We know, or at least think we know, that recruit ratings are always generated as integers. But we don't that this is true for IQs.

So basically, even if your experiment is, for one of these reasons, working as you think, we won't really know that. The only way to really answer this question would be to accumulate progression data for a number of recruits over time and compare.

I’m much more concerned about the work ethic increase (very slightly) affecting the results. Every guy I’ve ever seen with 10+ minutes goes from F to D- in a single day, I think it’s pretty safe to assume the Fs are starting from about the same place, close enough to be able to tell if there is a diminishing return on 20 vs 10 minutes over the course of a season.

i think its established fact that diminishing returns kick in from 10m or even less. this is outside of how much longer it takes to go from A- to A than C- to C, that is a different effect. it may only take 10 points to go from F to D-, and 500 from A to A+, but also, its very possible the in-game impact of A to A+ is bigger than F to D-; however, both of these are outside of the pure 'diminishing returns on points received towards IQ based on minutes practiced', which was fairly well established in a study someone did (iguana maybe?).

anyway, think of it like this - if you practice 10m, your player may get 10 points towards their IQ in there (that 10m is modified by a bunch of stuff, like highschool GPA, playing time, and work ethic). where the diminishing returns definitely are in effect is basically this - say that same player practiced 2 days at 10m. now he has 20 points. then he practices 1 more day, at 20m of practice. he is not going to be at 40 points, at +20 from the day - he might be +17 and now 37 total. if he practices 30m the next day, he might only get +22 points towards IQ on that day. what is known fact is that the # of points towards IQ you get per minute, it goes down the more you practice, and this impact is in place *at least* by 10 minutes.

in reality, the difference in points gotten per minute practiced between 10 and 20 is actually pretty significant. i would guess if you get like 10 points for 10 minutes, you get something like 16-17 per 20. but IQ is so important, that basically 99% of people should be at 20/20 or more anyway. only weird stuff like folks who want zone or press to choose from game to game, or hcp which is basically a terrible proposition almost always, would there be a case for less than 20m in something (also during transitions between sets). high end teams should aspire to be around 25/25 but should change it up based on the amount of growth left. the diminishing returns between 20 and 25 are a lot less severe than 25 to 30, i feel like basically there is a significant diminishing return effect starting around 5-10m but it really kicks into overdrive around 25m.

“or hcp which is basically a terrible proposition almost always”

LOL

Posted by shoe3 on 5/8/2019 3:03:00 PM (view original):
“or hcp which is basically a terrible proposition almost always”

LOL

im curious, do you actually run much hcp, or do you have both IQs so you can pick zone or press as it suits your team, and occasionally mix in some hcp? i tried that and it was pretty sweet - having two IQs - and in there i'd occasionally play some hcp, just because it was literally free at that point. not asking to argue, im just curious how you are using it.

Posted by gillispie1 on 5/8/2019 3:49:00 PM (view original):

Posted by shoe3 on 5/8/2019 3:03:00 PM (view original):
“or hcp which is basically a terrible proposition almost always”

LOL

im curious, do you actually run much hcp, or do you have both IQs so you can pick zone or press as it suits your team, and occasionally mix in some hcp? i tried that and it was pretty sweet - having two IQs - and in there i'd occasionally play some hcp, just because it was literally free at that point. not asking to argue, im just curious how you are using it.

HCP, almost exclusively. One year, when OK St had 2 walkons plus an ineligible, and i redshirted a guy, I went straight zone for maybe a handful of games. Sometimes when I have a full squad, I am tempted to go full press, but I almost always resist it.

The extra 10 points I spend on the press really isn’t adding a lot of value anywhere else. I could use it to bolster IQ for the primaries, but as discussed, we’re already into diminishing returns at 20. I could use it to work on non-cores earlier in guys careers, but why? In D1 that’s a hindrance, as the more “well-rounded” players are more likely to leave early. Makes a little more sense in lower levels, but honestly, the extra turnovers every game just feel a lot more tangibly valuable to me, over a guy maxing out an extra non-core or two over the course of his career.

I think when I ran through a couple teams with various practice times and either the 26th minute or minutes 26-30 lost about 35% of the effort.

If it was for the entire 5 minute range, over 34 practices a season, that's a total of 170 minutes between minutes 26-30 for a single category. You still got the growth rate of 65%, or about 110 minutes. So 30 minutes did improve faster than 25, but you saw no growth from the 35%, or 60 minutes.

Posted by gillispie1 on 5/8/2019 3:49:00 PM (view original):

Posted by shoe3 on 5/8/2019 3:03:00 PM (view original):
“or hcp which is basically a terrible proposition almost always”

LOL

im curious, do you actually run much hcp, or do you have both IQs so you can pick zone or press as it suits your team, and occasionally mix in some hcp? i tried that and it was pretty sweet - having two IQs - and in there i'd occasionally play some hcp, just because it was literally free at that point. not asking to argue, im just curious how you are using it.

I practice both zone and press with most of my teams (all but UNC in Smith) and my approach differs a bit from Shoe. I prefer press above all other defenses, but with EEs it is really hard to be competitive each season because I sometimes have 2-3 walk ons, so the zone is primarily a hedge for seasons where I don’t have the depth the play press full time. I sometimes also lean zone/hcp when I don’t have a lot of speed in my backcourt. Speed is a premium in recruiting and is sometimes difficult to keep in stock when your best guards keep leaving after their sophomore season.

Other benefits include the ability to promise 25 minutes to a recruit, despite the press being my primary defense. I can mix in zone or hcp against inferior teams with slow down and pad my freshman’s minutes. Then in the big games I switch back to press and can lower his minutes because of the padding.

You also get the benefit of multiple preferences, even through you are usually only at good instead of very good, it gives more coverage. This is especially valuable when you first take the job and don’t have the benefit of other preferences.

Posted by shoe3 on 5/8/2019 4:32:00 PM (view original):

Posted by gillispie1 on 5/8/2019 3:49:00 PM (view original):

Posted by shoe3 on 5/8/2019 3:03:00 PM (view original):
“or hcp which is basically a terrible proposition almost always”

LOL

im curious, do you actually run much hcp, or do you have both IQs so you can pick zone or press as it suits your team, and occasionally mix in some hcp? i tried that and it was pretty sweet - having two IQs - and in there i'd occasionally play some hcp, just because it was literally free at that point. not asking to argue, im just curious how you are using it.

HCP, almost exclusively. One year, when OK St had 2 walkons plus an ineligible, and i redshirted a guy, I went straight zone for maybe a handful of games. Sometimes when I have a full squad, I am tempted to go full press, but I almost always resist it.

The extra 10 points I spend on the press really isn’t adding a lot of value anywhere else. I could use it to bolster IQ for the primaries, but as discussed, we’re already into diminishing returns at 20. I could use it to work on non-cores earlier in guys careers, but why? In D1 that’s a hindrance, as the more “well-rounded” players are more likely to leave early. Makes a little more sense in lower levels, but honestly, the extra turnovers every game just feel a lot more tangibly valuable to me, over a guy maxing out an extra non-core or two over the course of his career.

makes sense, i mean i definitely wouldn't use the 10 points for the off-cores, i'm assuming managing your draft picks is still one of the most important fringe parts of d1. however, with the guys leaving early, i also look at 25 points as near-mandatory for high d1 because of how many sophs/juniors are playing leading roles. diminishing returns or not, 20->25 is a very meaningful difference especially on offense, so you are giving up something pretty substantial.

unfortunately 10m isn't really enough to go full press - kind of a shame - press is really the only unbalanced set at the highest levels of play, its hard to have teams well suited for it every year, but its a shame you aren't able to use it those years when you are 12 deep and hoping for a championship, where zone is at its worst!

Posted by drichar138 on 5/8/2019 7:20:00 PM (view original):

Posted by gillispie1 on 5/8/2019 3:49:00 PM (view original):

Posted by shoe3 on 5/8/2019 3:03:00 PM (view original):
“or hcp which is basically a terrible proposition almost always”

LOL

im curious, do you actually run much hcp, or do you have both IQs so you can pick zone or press as it suits your team, and occasionally mix in some hcp? i tried that and it was pretty sweet - having two IQs - and in there i'd occasionally play some hcp, just because it was literally free at that point. not asking to argue, im just curious how you are using it.

I practice both zone and press with most of my teams (all but UNC in Smith) and my approach differs a bit from Shoe. I prefer press above all other defenses, but with EEs it is really hard to be competitive each season because I sometimes have 2-3 walk ons, so the zone is primarily a hedge for seasons where I don’t have the depth the play press full time. I sometimes also lean zone/hcp when I don’t have a lot of speed in my backcourt. Speed is a premium in recruiting and is sometimes difficult to keep in stock when your best guards keep leaving after their sophomore season.

Other benefits include the ability to promise 25 minutes to a recruit, despite the press being my primary defense. I can mix in zone or hcp against inferior teams with slow down and pad my freshman’s minutes. Then in the big games I switch back to press and can lower his minutes because of the padding.

You also get the benefit of multiple preferences, even through you are usually only at good instead of very good, it gives more coverage. This is especially valuable when you first take the job and don’t have the benefit of other preferences.

i absolutely love this approach, i tried it once and it worked really well. i even tried almost exactly what you mentioned, running zone all season to get the right guys minutes, and then to running press in the tourney (when i could). i imagine now where you are flipping coins on players, its way harder to consistently field press teams, not that it ever really was easy. props on playing such a unusual way, i hope that's working out well for you, its definitely not easy to pull off but i think its a pretty awesome scheme. being able to compete for a top spot when you are screwed and only 8 deep, or being able to put out a title favorite when you are 12 deep, its pretty unique.

WFU is waiting for you in Phelan Gil. Let's go! ACC B+