Posted by hurst47 on 8/13/2019 10:38:00 PM (view original):

Posted by ozomatli on 8/13/2019 10:28:00 PM (view original):

Posted by hurst47 on 8/13/2019 10:24:00 PM (view original):

Posted by ozomatli on 8/13/2019 10:20:00 PM (view original):
Again, hurst47, I would encourage you to stop engaging with owners who don't make these decisions and aren't responsible for running the tournament. You have yet to directly address a single comment I've made, which confuses me.

Owners are ranked based on past performance specifically to ensure an even distribution of quality across the 4 versions of each league (or at least to make a best effort at it -- the formula isn't perfect). This is in service of the goal of the tournament, which is to crown the best owner that year as the champion.

You're secret formula is skewing the draw. I can't be more plain than that.

I'm happy to personally refund the cost of your GC if you feel scammed.

I will say though, this approach has been public for 15 years -- I would encourage you to think critically about your own viewpoint and whether in truth you've uncovered something secret, or if you are misconstruing something.

Ticket submitted which I assume will be dismissed.

Submitting a ticket for what? I don't work for WIS, so I don't see tickets.

Posted by ozomatli on 8/13/2019 7:20:00 PM (view original):

Posted by justinlee_24 on 8/13/2019 7:14:00 PM (view original):

Posted by milest on 8/13/2019 7:08:00 PM (view original):
I'm ranked 15th and I have the 26th most difficult schedule. I'm feeling left out of the (perceived) schedule advantage for top ranked owners.... I did a quick glance and I think it is the 2nd worst draw when you consider owner ranking in correlation to difficulty of schedule.
I will admit that it is it is fairly disheartening, especially when I see the ease of the schedule for some of the past winners and favorites.
I'm certainly not claiming it was rigged or anything of that nature, but coming from my view, it's hard to see it as exactly a 'fair' process to all 96 owners involved.

The only way to fix that would be to forcibly make every division have the same 48.5 average and have ozomatli manually determine everyone's division and conference in every league. That would be the only way to remove people getting lucky or unlucky draws.

Actually, that wouldn't be more fair. Randomness is guaranteed to be fair, while that solution would only be as fair as my ranking system is in the first place. Which, I put my best effort into, sure but, as I mentioned, there are flaws (hence is not being a perfect prediction each year). Randomness is superior if the goal is to be fair.

I think you need to put more effort into the rankings.

I am by far the shittiest owner in the tournament.

Posted by hurst47 on 8/13/2019 10:41:00 PM (view original):

Posted by justinlee_24 on 8/13/2019 10:36:00 PM (view original):

Posted by hurst47 on 8/13/2019 9:54:00 PM (view original):
* The leagues will not be determined randomly, but the divisions within each league will be. Once the 96 owners have purchased the $15 GC, then I will use a complex formula, originally developed by schwarze and updated by ozomatli, to rank every entrant and use this ranking for the league alignments for Round 1. This will essentially distribute the higher-ranking owners into different leagues.

This is what I'm saying. The "complex formula" to distribute the high ranked owners into different leagues is what's skewing the draw. It is the definition of skewing the draw. Randomization would say that it would be possible for the top four ranked owners to be in the same division. This process makes that impossible. How can you call the draw fair in that light? This is at best a flawed process and at worst a scam.

You forgot to mention that the lower-ranked owners are also distributed into different leagues.

Here are the facts:

Every league has a certain number of high ranked and lower ranked owners.
All the divisions seem to have relatively the same average strength.
The divisions themselves within a league are generated randomly by Whatifsports.

It is virtually impossible for the "complex formula" to distribute high ranked owners into different leagues to skew the draw, because every league has a high ranked owner (or two). It is simple mathematics that an owner like Brianjw is likely to get an "easier" division when the measurement in question excludes his own owner ranking, and on top of that he got lucky. At no point does this have anything to do with League Assignments, and everything to do with luck of the draw.

In order for the "complex formula" to skew the draw, some leagues would have to have highly ranked owners and other leagues would have to have none. For example, a league has 3 or 4 top ranked owners and everyone else is in the bottom 24, while another league has no top owners but is filled with people in the 20-50 range.

That would be more random. Artificially separating the higher ranked owners away from each other is the skew.

Since the divisions themselves are randomly generated by Whatifsports, the only way there can be a skew is if some leagues are harder or easier than others because of League Assignments. That is to say, based on owner rankings some leagues were assigned a group of owners that taken as a whole group is weaker than the group of owners assigned to another league.

However...

League___	Owners___	SumRank___	AvgRank
-----------	-----------	---------------	---------------
1-A	24	1157	48.2
1-B	24	1179	49.1
1-C	24	1163	48.5
1-D	24	1157	48.2
-----------	-----------	---------------	---------------
2-A	24	1165	48.5
2-B	24	1155	48.1
2-C	24	1159	48.3
2-D	24	1177	49.0
-----------	-----------	---------------	---------------
3-A	24	1174	48.9
3-B	24	1188	49.5
3-C	24	1144	47.7
3-D	24	1150	47.9
-----------	-----------	---------------	---------------
4-A	24	1168	48.7
4-B	24	1158	48.3
4-C	24	1173	48.9
4-D	24	1157	48.2
-----------	-----------	---------------	---------------
5-A	24	1156	48.2
5-B	24	1162	48.4
5-C	24	1163	48.5
5-D	24	1175	49.0
-----------	-----------	---------------	---------------
6-A	24	1162	48.4
6-B	24	1183	49.3
6-C	24	1150	47.9
6-D	24	1161	48.4

Based on Avgrank in each league, this claim is unsupported.

Remember, the "complex formula" assigns leagues, not divisions. Division difficulty ranking measures the difficulty of divisions, but that is determined by Whatifsports. Therefore, the divisions cannot be skewed unless the leagues are, and the data above directly disproves that.

At last I understand what's been going on. Every year I enter the six best teams ever built in the history of WIS and I've never won the tourney. How can that be? I demand that all of the prior tourneys be replayed from the beginning until I win them all!

He’s not going to listen so it is best to save our breath. Let’s see how that ticket plays out.

Hurst, why don’t you take the energy and effort you’re putting into this argument and instead write up your team
selection strategies? Or why not come up with your own “fair” league alignments to see how those compare to Oz’s? Repeating the same nonsense just comes off as whining and is going nowhere.

Posted by hurst47 on 8/13/2019 10:20:00 PM (view original):
Why give up when I've discovered the source of the bias? That shouldn't be how a "random" draw should work. The draw should be fair for all and not favor anyone or any group. Right now you've got a Ponzi scheme for a tournament and I don't think that's particularly fair.

So what does that say about you? You knew how this worked, yet you plopped your money down to join, and are only now ******** about how unfair it is. Why did you sign up in the first place then?

You’re the type of guy who goes swimming and then complains the water is wet.

Posted by jbohrman on 8/13/2019 11:10:00 PM (view original):
He’s not going to listen so it is best to save our breath. Let’s see how that ticket plays out.

Hurst, why don’t you take the energy and effort you’re putting into this argument and instead write up your team
selection strategies? Or why not come up with your own “fair” league alignments to see how those compare to Oz’s? Repeating the same nonsense just comes off as whining and is going nowhere.

I can't wait for his "fair" league alignments. Like Buddhagamer said, someone is going to get screwed so bad by his proposed "alignments".

Posted by hurst47 on 8/13/2019 11:11:00 PM (view original):

Posted by ozomatli on 8/13/2019 10:50:00 PM (view original):

Posted by hurst47 on 8/13/2019 10:38:00 PM (view original):

Posted by ozomatli on 8/13/2019 10:28:00 PM (view original):

Posted by hurst47 on 8/13/2019 10:24:00 PM (view original):

Posted by ozomatli on 8/13/2019 10:20:00 PM (view original):
Again, hurst47, I would encourage you to stop engaging with owners who don't make these decisions and aren't responsible for running the tournament. You have yet to directly address a single comment I've made, which confuses me.

Owners are ranked based on past performance specifically to ensure an even distribution of quality across the 4 versions of each league (or at least to make a best effort at it -- the formula isn't perfect). This is in service of the goal of the tournament, which is to crown the best owner that year as the champion.

You're secret formula is skewing the draw. I can't be more plain than that.

I'm happy to personally refund the cost of your GC if you feel scammed.

I will say though, this approach has been public for 15 years -- I would encourage you to think critically about your own viewpoint and whether in truth you've uncovered something secret, or if you are misconstruing something.

Ticket submitted which I assume will be dismissed.

Submitting a ticket for what? I don't work for WIS, so I don't see tickets.

To Admin. To let them know what's going on.

The same Admin who collected 96 $15 gift certificates and watches the annual tournament that brings in 576-720 teams to the site? It’s a bold strategy Cotton, let’s see how it plays out for him.

Whatever. You talk about scams. You’re the scammer. You knew what you were getting into, yet you wait until now to cry foul so you can try to milk some credits or a GC refund out of it. It’s pathetic.