haven’t been this surprised by a recruiting battle in a long time.

The other coach won’t respond to my sitemail so I can only guess what he put into the recruit.

So I just won a national championship with Northwestern. Was A prestige before and the NC bumped my back up to an A+. Found a JUCO during the second recruiting period and dumped 12 home visits into him and 80 AP’s. Was contested by a D+ prestige school that was previously a SIM that had just picked up a human coach before the second cycle began.

All preferences were equal except I had a very good for strong conference preference, and I assume the other school was neutral or worse (midmajor conference). No playing time preference and I didn’t offer any minutes or a start.

I assumed 12 home visits would be more than enough to fend off a D+ prestige school with worse preferences. Boy was I wrong. I got knocked down all the way to moderate and lost the guy in the next cycle.

Is anyone else surprised by this result? What happened here? I thought maybe simai had put in a ton of AP during the first recruiting period, but the other school was at very low at the beginning of the second period.

Am I overestimating the power of prestige?

Just trying to learn from mistakes....

80 AP/ cycle, or 80 total?

Hard to say without the full picture, but I would guess promises are also part of this. Especially in these short 2nd session battles, promises have big impact, when there isn’t a mountain of AP to slog through. Promises and max visits are probably the culprit. You put in significant effort, but if the other guy was all the way in, you were beatable. But if you were doing 80 AP/cycle, I would be a little surprised you were locked out.

Still..... D+ vs A+ is absurd given what he threw in.

What was the final battle %?

Posted by mullycj on 11/28/2019 10:04:00 AM (view original):
Still..... D+ vs A+ is absurd given what he threw in.

What was the final battle %?

If he was at moderate, the odds would be 100-0.

If it’s 80 AP total, say 20 /cycle over 4 cycles, this result is completely in line with what I would expect, assuming the rival put in significantly more (say, 60/cycle) AP, made promises, and did more visits. D+ can’t touch A+ if effort is equal or anywhere close; but 20 AP/cycle, only 60% visits, and no promises is leaving a whole lot of room. Remember, this is a second session only battle, meaning the isolated impact of promises is especially large.

If the OP is saying 80 AP per cycle for the A+, then there might be something else going on. Promises are big, but I wouldn’t think they would cover that much ground, to hold the A+ to moderate in that situation.

Posted by shoe3 on 11/28/2019 11:10:00 AM (view original):

Posted by mullycj on 11/28/2019 10:04:00 AM (view original):
Still..... D+ vs A+ is absurd given what he threw in.

What was the final battle %?

If he was at moderate, the odds would be 100-0.

If it’s 80 AP total, say 20 /cycle over 4 cycles, this result is completely in line with what I would expect, assuming the rival put in significantly more (say, 60/cycle) AP, made promises, and did more visits. D+ can’t touch A+ if effort is equal or anywhere close; but 20 AP/cycle, only 60% visits, and no promises is leaving a whole lot of room. Remember, this is a second session only battle, meaning the isolated impact of promises is especially large.

If the OP is saying 80 AP per cycle for the A+, then there might be something else going on. Promises are big, but I wouldn’t think they would cover that much ground, to hold the A+ to moderate in that situation.

When a human takes over for a SIM, only the recruiting $$$ is refunded but any accumulated AP is not and stays with the recruits. The other coach likely still had all of first recruiting session AP into that recruit so the AP difference could be quite large. Also, I've heard that prestige changes might not even take effect in RS2 and the OP was still only getting credit using his RS1 prestige.

I've also been told by CS that even when the recruit does NOT have a PT preference, its still a multiplier when offering starts/minutes (it's just a much larger multiplier when they want PT). Thus its likely the mid-major offered start/minutes immediately followed by the full CV/20 HV dump (magnifying the recruiting credit for each visit).

Posted by buddhagamer on 11/28/2019 12:12:00 PM (view original):

Posted by shoe3 on 11/28/2019 11:10:00 AM (view original):

Posted by mullycj on 11/28/2019 10:04:00 AM (view original):
Still..... D+ vs A+ is absurd given what he threw in.

What was the final battle %?

If he was at moderate, the odds would be 100-0.

If it’s 80 AP total, say 20 /cycle over 4 cycles, this result is completely in line with what I would expect, assuming the rival put in significantly more (say, 60/cycle) AP, made promises, and did more visits. D+ can’t touch A+ if effort is equal or anywhere close; but 20 AP/cycle, only 60% visits, and no promises is leaving a whole lot of room. Remember, this is a second session only battle, meaning the isolated impact of promises is especially large.

If the OP is saying 80 AP per cycle for the A+, then there might be something else going on. Promises are big, but I wouldn’t think they would cover that much ground, to hold the A+ to moderate in that situation.

When a human takes over for a SIM, only the recruiting $$$ is refunded but any accumulated AP is not and stays with the recruits. The other coach likely still had all of first recruiting session AP into that recruit so the AP difference could be quite large. Also, I've heard that prestige changes might not even take effect in RS2 and the OP was still only getting credit using his RS1 prestige.

I've also been told by CS that even when the recruit does NOT have a PT preference, its still a multiplier when offering starts/minutes (it's just a much larger multiplier when they want PT). Thus its likely the mid-major offered start/minutes immediately followed by the full CV/20 HV dump (magnifying the recruiting credit for each visit).

****** EDIT ***** **** my bad this is gillispie, i was looking at the team i co-coach with chap, and accidentally posted this. sorry!!

WHAT??

that would be huge news to me. promises as a multiplier, even without a preference - as opposed to a fixed amount (which may vary per recruit and per school offering, but still given a school and a recruit, i thought it was a fixed value).

that is pretty crazy. i actually HATE promises, i feel like 3.0 promises are total BS, you have to promise so many recruits and throw away the regular season, it just sucks. i wish they'd rip them out root and stem. but them being a % that is not retroactive is a lot different than a fixed value and would have to do even more of the damn things. any chance you still have that CS ticket around and could post here?

****** EDIT ***** **** my bad this is gillispie, i was looking at the team i co-coach with chap, and accidentally posted this. sorry!!

I gave him 80 AP total. I found him late so I slammed all 80 in on one cycle so I could unlock home visits and scholarship offer the next cycle.

My very rough recruiting math goes something like this.

From what I gather a letter difference in prestige is roughly say 25 percent stronger. 2 letter difference is 150 percent, 3 letter 175 percent. So a 3 letter difference (in this case, D+ to A+) means if I give the recruit 10 visits, he has to give him 17 or 18 visits for equal footing.

Also, I had the strong conference preference working in my favor, so I think I get an addition 10 percent or so. So at this point I'm assuming that my recruiting actions are almost twice as powerful as his.

sound good so far?

Next, I assume 30-40 AP is equal to a home visit. And a scholarship offer is worth 2 home visits. And I usually give a start and 25 minutes promise about 4 home visits worth of "credit" for guys that don't have a playing time preference. I like to add up recruiting effort by totaling "home visits" as the unit of measurement. Just makes sense to me that way.

Let me know where you think I am way off base.

So I gave the recruit 80 AP, 12 home visits, and a scholarship. Let's call it roughly 16 home visits worth of credit.

So, because of the huge gap in prestige and my better recruit preference, every action I take theoretically is almost twice as powerful as his actions. So he would need 30 home visits or so worth of credit to equal my effort. More importantly though, in order to knock me down to moderate interest, he would have to put in at least 150 percent MORE effort that I did. So by my very rough calculations, he would have to do around 45 or so home visits or the equivalent of.

so let's assume he maxes home visits, promises, campus, and scholarship offer. I calculate that to total around 30 or so home visits worth of credit. so theoretically he needed an additional 600 or so AP (to get to the equivalent of 45 home visits of credit) in order to knock me down to moderate. I just find it hard to figure how he get's that in during only 4 cycles of the second period. Is it safe to assume the computer put in 300 or so AP in early recruiting? I have never switched teams so I don't know how the computer recruits.

how is my math? In the past, I have been pretty good at guessing how D1 battles will play out, so I don't think I'm WAAAAAY off.

of course we are assuming that the other school played it optimally.

I just have never been in danger of losing a recruit to a D+ prestige school since Northwestern ascended up to A- prestige and above. Just trying to unpack how it happened.

Also, I thought that offering playing time and promises to recruits without the playing time preference was a one time boost, and NOT a modifier for ever subsequent action. Can someone please clarify?

Posted by chapelhillne on 11/28/2019 1:25:00 PM (view original):

Posted by buddhagamer on 11/28/2019 12:12:00 PM (view original):

Posted by shoe3 on 11/28/2019 11:10:00 AM (view original):

Posted by mullycj on 11/28/2019 10:04:00 AM (view original):
Still..... D+ vs A+ is absurd given what he threw in.

What was the final battle %?

If he was at moderate, the odds would be 100-0.

If it’s 80 AP total, say 20 /cycle over 4 cycles, this result is completely in line with what I would expect, assuming the rival put in significantly more (say, 60/cycle) AP, made promises, and did more visits. D+ can’t touch A+ if effort is equal or anywhere close; but 20 AP/cycle, only 60% visits, and no promises is leaving a whole lot of room. Remember, this is a second session only battle, meaning the isolated impact of promises is especially large.

If the OP is saying 80 AP per cycle for the A+, then there might be something else going on. Promises are big, but I wouldn’t think they would cover that much ground, to hold the A+ to moderate in that situation.

When a human takes over for a SIM, only the recruiting $$$ is refunded but any accumulated AP is not and stays with the recruits. The other coach likely still had all of first recruiting session AP into that recruit so the AP difference could be quite large. Also, I've heard that prestige changes might not even take effect in RS2 and the OP was still only getting credit using his RS1 prestige.

I've also been told by CS that even when the recruit does NOT have a PT preference, its still a multiplier when offering starts/minutes (it's just a much larger multiplier when they want PT). Thus its likely the mid-major offered start/minutes immediately followed by the full CV/20 HV dump (magnifying the recruiting credit for each visit).

WHAT??

that would be huge news to me. promises as a multiplier, even without a preference - as opposed to a fixed amount (which may vary per recruit and per school offering, but still given a school and a recruit, i thought it was a fixed value).

that is pretty crazy. i actually HATE promises, i feel like 3.0 promises are total BS, you have to promise so many recruits and throw away the regular season, it just sucks. i wish they'd rip them out root and stem. but them being a % that is not retroactive is a lot different than a fixed value and would have to do even more of the damn things. any chance you still have that CS ticket around and could post here?

Had to go back to the previous ticket system to find it.

Here is my ticket:

3/20/2017 10:39 PM	buddhagamer
A question regarding recruiting actions and if they have some type of multiplier associated with them. In the absence of any preferences, does the order of any recruiting actions have any effect of other subsequent actions? Two identical teams battling for a recruit with NO preferences what so ever, Team A sends start promise, 20 minutes in one cycle, then next cycle sends 20 HVs + CV. Team B sends 20 HVs + CV in one cycle, then next cycle sends start promise + 20 minutes. Is the recruiting effort equal? or does Team A benefit due to some multiplying effect given by promise start and/or minutes.
3/22/2017 3:31 PM	Customer Support
Hi Robert, Team A would benefit. Promises do have a multiplying effect but only for that cycle and onward. Preferences also have a multiplying offer.

Posted by chapelhillne on 11/28/2019 1:25:00 PM (view original):

Posted by buddhagamer on 11/28/2019 12:12:00 PM (view original):

Posted by shoe3 on 11/28/2019 11:10:00 AM (view original):

Posted by mullycj on 11/28/2019 10:04:00 AM (view original):
Still..... D+ vs A+ is absurd given what he threw in.

What was the final battle %?

If he was at moderate, the odds would be 100-0.

If it’s 80 AP total, say 20 /cycle over 4 cycles, this result is completely in line with what I would expect, assuming the rival put in significantly more (say, 60/cycle) AP, made promises, and did more visits. D+ can’t touch A+ if effort is equal or anywhere close; but 20 AP/cycle, only 60% visits, and no promises is leaving a whole lot of room. Remember, this is a second session only battle, meaning the isolated impact of promises is especially large.

If the OP is saying 80 AP per cycle for the A+, then there might be something else going on. Promises are big, but I wouldn’t think they would cover that much ground, to hold the A+ to moderate in that situation.

When a human takes over for a SIM, only the recruiting $$$ is refunded but any accumulated AP is not and stays with the recruits. The other coach likely still had all of first recruiting session AP into that recruit so the AP difference could be quite large. Also, I've heard that prestige changes might not even take effect in RS2 and the OP was still only getting credit using his RS1 prestige.

I've also been told by CS that even when the recruit does NOT have a PT preference, its still a multiplier when offering starts/minutes (it's just a much larger multiplier when they want PT). Thus its likely the mid-major offered start/minutes immediately followed by the full CV/20 HV dump (magnifying the recruiting credit for each visit).

WHAT??

that would be huge news to me. promises as a multiplier, even without a preference - as opposed to a fixed amount (which may vary per recruit and per school offering, but still given a school and a recruit, i thought it was a fixed value).

that is pretty crazy. i actually HATE promises, i feel like 3.0 promises are total BS, you have to promise so many recruits and throw away the regular season, it just sucks. i wish they'd rip them out root and stem. but them being a % that is not retroactive is a lot different than a fixed value and would have to do even more of the damn things. any chance you still have that CS ticket around and could post here?

This is actually something that I've been thinking lately. It just seems very gimmicky. Go to any P6 conference and look at all of the successful teams. Most will be starting multiple freshman, until they reach their promise for the season, then immediately send him to the bench. It may alter their regular season, but the best teams will win come NT and they just need to make it.

The kicker? They're also benefitting by keeping the veteran on the bench as he was also, often times, the highly touted recruit who was offered a promise, but the team is keeping him on the bench to prevent his progressions up the Big Board.

I do like the promises and I think they're an important part of the game. I don't like the idea of removing them. What I've been thinking is to make MORE promises - diluting the meaning of each one - and holding you more accountable to reaching those that you offer. Breakdown promised starts into sub-categories such as "promise regular season start", "promise CT/NT/PI start (if you make it that far), "promise sophomore year start". That was they aren't starting 27 games and get sat during the ones any player would most want to play. The lower level teams would be more likely to make those additional starts as they want to reach success, while successful teams may be more hesitant to offer a freshman starts during their NT.

Promised minutes aren’t a multiplier for players who don’t want playing time. Promised starts are never multipliers, stand alone only. Before seble got back, there was misinformation, and a lot of misunderstanding, even among CS, apparently.

**********

Date	User
1/13/2018 4:06 PM	shoe3
It appears there are now conflicting responses from CS regarding whether promises affect the value of visits for players without a preference to playing time. See this thread - https://www.whatifsports.com/forums/Posts.aspx?topicID=506533 Can you please clarify? Is there any benefit at all in promising a start and/or minutes to a player prior to conducting visits if the player has no playing time preference?
1/13/2018 6:43 PM	Customer Support
The only extra impact from a minutes promise is that if the player has a "Wants to play" preference, the promise will flip that preference into a positive one. Then it has a similar impact as other preferences.
1/13/2018 7:15 PM	shoe3
And there is no multiplier effect on promised starts for visits to a player with no playing time preference? Just the stand alone one time value? So promising a start as a last resort for a player with no playing time preference has the same effect as promising the start up front, before visits? Or are you purposely specifying minutes here because you’d rather not get specific on the starts? Just making sure we’re not spreading misinformation based on a previously mistaken CS response to new users.
1/14/2018 5:39 PM	Customer Support
No, promising starts does not impact the preference at all.
1/14/2018 9:33 PM	shoe3
I understand that, the question is whether the start affects the value of visits?
1/15/2018 10:39 AM	Customer Support
As mentioned earlier, the only boost is related to flipping the "Wants to Play" preference to Good or Very Good. That only happens by promising minutes. So, outside of that, there is no other boost related to promises.
1/15/2018 11:54 AM	shoe3
Ok one more clarification, because one way or another, a mistaken CS response has led to misinformation being spread, and I’m intent on avoiding that. Going back to the original, apparently mistaken CS response to a scenario presented in the thread I posted, when a player has no preference for playing time, a team that offers a start before doing visits is getting no additional value than they would get by promising a start at the very end of recruiting as a last resort. Is that right? Simple yes or no, and I’ll stop bugging you, thanks!
1/15/2018 11:54 AM	shoe3
1/15/2018 12:19 PM	Customer Support
That's correct.

Posted by jimmychino on 11/28/2019 1:40:00 PM (view original):
I gave him 80 AP total. I found him late so I slammed all 80 in on one cycle so I could unlock home visits and scholarship offer the next cycle.

My very rough recruiting math goes something like this.

From what I gather a letter difference in prestige is roughly say 25 percent stronger. 2 letter difference is 150 percent, 3 letter 175 percent. So a 3 letter difference (in this case, D+ to A+) means if I give the recruit 10 visits, he has to give him 17 or 18 visits for equal footing.

Also, I had the strong conference preference working in my favor, so I think I get an addition 10 percent or so. So at this point I'm assuming that my recruiting actions are almost twice as powerful as his.

sound good so far?

Next, I assume 30-40 AP is equal to a home visit. And a scholarship offer is worth 2 home visits. And I usually give a start and 25 minutes promise about 4 home visits worth of "credit" for guys that don't have a playing time preference. I like to add up recruiting effort by totaling "home visits" as the unit of measurement. Just makes sense to me that way.

Let me know where you think I am way off base.

So I gave the recruit 80 AP, 12 home visits, and a scholarship. Let's call it roughly 16 home visits worth of credit.

So, because of the huge gap in prestige and my better recruit preference, every action I take theoretically is almost twice as powerful as his actions. So he would need 30 home visits or so worth of credit to equal my effort. More importantly though, in order to knock me down to moderate interest, he would have to put in at least 150 percent MORE effort that I did. So by my very rough calculations, he would have to do around 45 or so home visits or the equivalent of.

so let's assume he maxes home visits, promises, campus, and scholarship offer. I calculate that to total around 30 or so home visits worth of credit. so theoretically he needed an additional 600 or so AP (to get to the equivalent of 45 home visits of credit) in order to knock me down to moderate. I just find it hard to figure how he get's that in during only 4 cycles of the second period. Is it safe to assume the computer put in 300 or so AP in early recruiting? I have never switched teams so I don't know how the computer recruits.

how is my math? In the past, I have been pretty good at guessing how D1 battles will play out, so I don't think I'm WAAAAAY off.

of course we are assuming that the other school played it optimally.

I just have never been in danger of losing a recruit to a D+ prestige school since Northwestern ascended up to A- prestige and above. Just trying to unpack how it happened.

Also, I thought that offering playing time and promises to recruits without the playing time preference was a one time boost, and NOT a modifier for ever subsequent action. Can someone please clarify?

Just to clarify, you gave him 80 AP one cycle, then dropped him to zero? And he signed the cycle your visits and scholarship offer all processed?

Just a couple other thoughts.

I’ve never seen a sim do more than ~27 AP/cycle, and they stop when knocked down to very low consideration. If the team started the 2nd session at very low, it’s unlikely they had more than 100 or so AP to start with.

Promises are really, really big when you’re only talking about a couple cycles worth of effort. I don’t think you’re taking that into account. You can mute the effect of promises over the course of a dozen cycles, with consistent AP; but 80 is really thin.

I don’t know that calibrating everything to home visits as a standard unit is a good way to think about it, but let’s say you’re right about 175% (I have no idea, because I don’t think about it like this). If we assume your rival put in max visits, he’s holding pretty steady with you at 20-12, and if you didn’t do a CV, and he did, he’s a bit ahead. He may have doubled or tripled your attention, or perhaps even more. So he’s really pulling ahead there. The (presumed) promises on top of it are definitely enough, from what I’ve seen, to explain the battle outcome.

Posted by jimmychino on 11/28/2019 1:40:00 PM (view original):
I gave him 80 AP total. I found him late so I slammed all 80 in on one cycle so I could unlock home visits and scholarship offer the next cycle.

My very rough recruiting math goes something like this.

From what I gather a letter difference in prestige is roughly say 25 percent stronger. 2 letter difference is 150 percent, 3 letter 175 percent. So a 3 letter difference (in this case, D+ to A+) means if I give the recruit 10 visits, he has to give him 17 or 18 visits for equal footing.

Also, I had the strong conference preference working in my favor, so I think I get an addition 10 percent or so. So at this point I'm assuming that my recruiting actions are almost twice as powerful as his.

sound good so far?

Next, I assume 30-40 AP is equal to a home visit. And a scholarship offer is worth 2 home visits. And I usually give a start and 25 minutes promise about 4 home visits worth of "credit" for guys that don't have a playing time preference. I like to add up recruiting effort by totaling "home visits" as the unit of measurement. Just makes sense to me that way.

Let me know where you think I am way off base.

So I gave the recruit 80 AP, 12 home visits, and a scholarship. Let's call it roughly 16 home visits worth of credit.

So, because of the huge gap in prestige and my better recruit preference, every action I take theoretically is almost twice as powerful as his actions. So he would need 30 home visits or so worth of credit to equal my effort. More importantly though, in order to knock me down to moderate interest, he would have to put in at least 150 percent MORE effort that I did. So by my very rough calculations, he would have to do around 45 or so home visits or the equivalent of.

so let's assume he maxes home visits, promises, campus, and scholarship offer. I calculate that to total around 30 or so home visits worth of credit. so theoretically he needed an additional 600 or so AP (to get to the equivalent of 45 home visits of credit) in order to knock me down to moderate. I just find it hard to figure how he get's that in during only 4 cycles of the second period. Is it safe to assume the computer put in 300 or so AP in early recruiting? I have never switched teams so I don't know how the computer recruits.

how is my math? In the past, I have been pretty good at guessing how D1 battles will play out, so I don't think I'm WAAAAAY off.

of course we are assuming that the other school played it optimally.

I just have never been in danger of losing a recruit to a D+ prestige school since Northwestern ascended up to A- prestige and above. Just trying to unpack how it happened.

Also, I thought that offering playing time and promises to recruits without the playing time preference was a one time boost, and NOT a modifier for ever subsequent action. Can someone please clarify?

what was the prestige from the prior year? i think you went up, did he go down? that may help explain it - there is credible evidence, not proof, but credible evidence that prestige doesn't take effect till session 1 of the next recruiting.

your modelling sounds pretty good

prestige the prior year was an A. His was a D+.

I offered an initial 80 AP to unlock recruiting actions, and that was it for AP. At that point, we were both at very low. I then offered 12 home visits and a scholarship offer. Following that I was at very high and he was at moderate. The following cycle he signed, and he finished at Very High and me at moderate.

I stopped giving AP after the initial 80 because I was in another battle with a conference rival, and as I said before, I've never had any trouble with low prestige schools before.

I can understand how I lost the battle, I am just shocked he was able to knock me down to moderate. I must be greatly underestimating the impact of promises...

Even if he maxed out the AP for those 4 cycles, he still can only get to 320. That's not a huge number relative to the 12 home visits I was offering, and again, it is pretty hard to knock a school down to moderate without significant advantages.

This experience will probably cause me to totally overreact every time I see a mid major appear on a recruit's consideration list going forward.

has anyone else lost a battle like this?

Posted by jimmychino on 11/28/2019 10:10:00 PM (view original):
prestige the prior year was an A. His was a D+.

I offered an initial 80 AP to unlock recruiting actions, and that was it for AP. At that point, we were both at very low. I then offered 12 home visits and a scholarship offer. Following that I was at very high and he was at moderate. The following cycle he signed, and he finished at Very High and me at moderate.

I stopped giving AP after the initial 80 because I was in another battle with a conference rival, and as I said before, I've never had any trouble with low prestige schools before.

I can understand how I lost the battle, I am just shocked he was able to knock me down to moderate. I must be greatly underestimating the impact of promises...

Even if he maxed out the AP for those 4 cycles, he still can only get to 320. That's not a huge number relative to the 12 home visits I was offering, and again, it is pretty hard to knock a school down to moderate without significant advantages.

This experience will probably cause me to totally overreact every time I see a mid major appear on a recruit's consideration list going forward.

has anyone else lost a battle like this?

well, ive lost like d+ to a+ but i was maxed on visits and promises, so that was brutal! 75-25 it was, and they only had like 200 AP on us. my takeaway - prestige is worth less than i thought, OR it takes a ridiculous advantage to put to moderate (which would go against a possibly takeaway from yours, which is maybe its not insanely hard to push to moderate - seems like it is to me though).

hey one more question - who was in the lead? if you were both VL, and the leader wasn't doing jack, then prob wasn't much AP from the old coach (the sim). also, did the D+ school have a ship on? if they had like 300-400AP, i could see how you could be moderate (with +240 on you over 4 cycles with 80 per, if that is even possible - who has 80 ap in session 2 - i guess some people)