Hey fellas,

I'm relatively new to D1 and have never had an EE. However, I have a sophomore who is # 18 on the big board and is "on the fence". What are my chances of getting him back? What kind of prestige bump would I be looking at if he were to leave?

Here he is:

https://www.whatifsports.com/hd/PlayerProfile/Ratings.aspx?tid=0&pid=4135377

You get a modest temporary prestige bump for a draft pick (no different whether EE or graduating.) Something like the move from A- to A, but maybe less. DIssipates after a season or two.

There are threads with more detail, but ballpark I think of on the fence as 50-50 BUT then adjust for him being darn high on the list. I would guess apx 2/3 chance he is gone.

Guys higher up the list are more likely to go, so I wouldn’t be counting on him next year. If a guy ahead of him declines to go, he effectively moves up a spot, and potentially becomes “likely going”, although I don’t think there is a large gap in probability between the bottom of likely going, and the top of on the fence. I’d guess FD is about right, somewhere in the vicinity of 60-70% likely to leave.

Does the class of the player have any bearing on whether they stay or go? Are juniors more likely to go than sophomores?

Fwiw, you usually only get the prestige bump if the guys is a top 5 pick.

Posted by tgblackw on 4/1/2019 12:13:00 AM (view original):
Does the class of the player have any bearing on whether they stay or go? Are juniors more likely to go than sophomores?

Yes. In some sense, that is reflected in the “outlook”. Juniors on the big board are likely going down to ~28 or so, and are otherwise on the fence. Sophs are likely going in the top ~16 or so, on the fence to ~30, and likely staying below that. So within each class, they have their own criteria. The higher they are on the draft board, the more likely they are to go, regardless of class. But a junior at #32 is more likely to go than a soph at #30, if that makes sense.

Posted by tgblackw on 4/1/2019 12:13:00 AM (view original):
Does the class of the player have any bearing on whether they stay or go? Are juniors more likely to go than sophomores?

Yes definitely. A JR who is top 10 is more likely to leave than a Soph who is top 10. Even though both are listed as likely going.

Also, a Soph who is on the fence is more likely to leave than a JR who is on the fence.

Thanks to all of those that answered. My guy bolted if anyone cares to know the outcome.

Also, since I'm a nice guy, I'll let you in on a little secret. Once you get past three top 40ish, there isn't a pattern and it's completely random.

A Soph likely staying at #50 has the same chance to leave as #90.

And a JR on the fence at #50 has the same chance of leaving as #90.

Posted by Benis on 4/2/2019 10:42:00 AM (view original):
Also, since I'm a nice guy, I'll let you in on a little secret. Once you get past three top 40ish, there isn't a pattern and it's completely random.

A Soph likely staying at #50 has the same chance to leave as #90.

And a JR on the fence at #50 has the same chance of leaving as #90.

I also had a junior who was in the mid-80 range that was on the fence as well. Luckily, he decided to return. Thanks for the tip Benis.

Just the tip...

OK so I just had my first player bolt - he was a Junior and I was super excited to have him back for a nice run next year. He emailed telling me he was leaving for the draft but it appears the draft just took place and I don't think he was drafted - what happens next? He appears on my roster everywhere except the screen where you recruit - he is gone from that roster and I just signed a recruit in his place but am waiting for the roster updates...any chance I get him back?

Draft does occur until after recruiting closes, he is gone.

It takes it a little while after it announces the draft results for the new rosters to appear. Smith has not had the new players show up and the drafted ones leave.

I have seen them all over the board leave and stay. I had a freshmen leave when he was "staying" and in the 50's on the board. Last season I had a sophomore that was #9 and "likely going" stay.