I have two underclassmen on the big board listed as likely going. What are the chances they actually declare?


1. Player A- #9 overall, 2nd C on the board, Sophmore
2. Player B- #17 overall, 4th SF on the board, Junior

There's a 80-90% chance that each leaves right? Or is it even higher?

Player A - 91%
Player B - 83%

Does "2nd C on board" or "4th SF on board" play a role?

I figured it was just placement on board, student year (fr, so, jr, sr), and outlook (likely going, etc.).

Posted by upsetcity on 3/4/2020 12:21:00 PM (view original):
Does "2nd C on board" or "4th SF on board" play a role?

I figured it was just placement on board, student year (fr, so, jr, sr), and outlook (likely going, etc.).

Nope. You can change listed position and it won't impact early entry results. Supposedly player accolades and team success plays a factor but it seems minimal and I haven't really tried that hard to find a correlation.

One season I looked at big board rankings before and after the postseason. My guy went up 5 spots after final four run and a couple others actually dropped after their teams final four.

Benis is your calculation just 100-projected spot= %chance they leave?

Is that really how you think it works, or close enough to not be worth trying something different? Asking for my glorious future teams, which will no doubt be filled with guys who could leave early but like the college experience so much that they stick around.

Posted by upsetcity on 3/4/2020 12:21:00 PM (view original):
Does "2nd C on board" or "4th SF on board" play a role?

I figured it was just placement on board, student year (fr, so, jr, sr), and outlook (likely going, etc.).

It does. Technically, it's the position the system thinks your player is not what's listed but at the top of the list it doesn't matter much. If you change your players listed position to SG but he is really a C, the system ranks him as a C.

Seble said during beta that's how it works. He also said the higher up on the position ranking, the more likely you are to be drafted.


Also, the system also tries to draft a reasonably equal # of positions. That's why players off the draft board get taken. If the system decides 12 PF's must get drafted and only 11 are seniors or declare, #12 comes from off the draft board.

Posted by Benis on 3/4/2020 12:57:00 PM (view original):

Posted by upsetcity on 3/4/2020 12:21:00 PM (view original):
Does "2nd C on board" or "4th SF on board" play a role?

I figured it was just placement on board, student year (fr, so, jr, sr), and outlook (likely going, etc.).

Nope. You can change listed position and it won't impact early entry results. Supposedly player accolades and team success plays a factor but it seems minimal and I haven't really tried that hard to find a correlation.

One season I looked at big board rankings before and after the postseason. My guy went up 5 spots after final four run and a couple others actually dropped after their teams final four.

Ha, I assumed he was just ******* with me. I should have taken it to the next level and figured out his complex formula. If he is serious, Benis is the probably one of the most knowledgeable guy about EE's. I mean him and shoe. They are pretty much equals.

Posted by Trentonjoe on 3/4/2020 1:24:00 PM (view original):

Posted by upsetcity on 3/4/2020 12:21:00 PM (view original):
Does "2nd C on board" or "4th SF on board" play a role?

I figured it was just placement on board, student year (fr, so, jr, sr), and outlook (likely going, etc.).

It does. Technically, it's the position the system thinks your player is not what's listed but at the top of the list it doesn't matter much. If you change your players listed position to SG but he is really a C, the system ranks him as a C.

Seble said during beta that's how it works. He also said the higher up on the position ranking, the more likely you are to be drafted.


Also, the system also tries to draft a reasonably equal # of positions. That's why players off the draft board get taken. If the system decides 12 PF's must get drafted and only 11 are seniors or declare, #12 comes from off the draft board.

“at the top of the list it doesn't matter much.”

The rest is pretty valid i think, but this is an important caveat on this concept (positions and draft assessment). How the system assesses a player’s abilities matters a lot more to the guys on the cusp between on the fence and likely going, and between likely staying and on the fence. Those areas are where you can sometimes see large game-by-game changes, because a guy might move up from the #11 to #10 PG (speculative, I don’t know how or where the line is actually drawn), or his attributes change the assessment to the point where the system now sees him as a SF (perhaps his rebounding has seen big growth this year), and instead of the #11 PG, he’s now the #8 SF.

Posted by Trentonjoe on 3/4/2020 1:27:00 PM (view original):

Posted by Benis on 3/4/2020 12:57:00 PM (view original):

Posted by upsetcity on 3/4/2020 12:21:00 PM (view original):
Does "2nd C on board" or "4th SF on board" play a role?

I figured it was just placement on board, student year (fr, so, jr, sr), and outlook (likely going, etc.).

Nope. You can change listed position and it won't impact early entry results. Supposedly player accolades and team success plays a factor but it seems minimal and I haven't really tried that hard to find a correlation.

One season I looked at big board rankings before and after the postseason. My guy went up 5 spots after final four run and a couple others actually dropped after their teams final four.

Ha, I assumed he was just ******* with me. I should have taken it to the next level and figured out his complex formula. If he is serious, Benis is the probably one of the most knowledgeable guy about EE's. I mean him and shoe. They are pretty much equals.

Your previous post is correct about the system calculating its own position based upon ratings. You will see this happen when a player has a small increase in ratings but jumped quite a bit on the big board. They're now being evaluated by a different position.

I'm always serious. And don't call me shirley.

"Also, the system also tries to draft a reasonably equal # of positions."

I think there is validity to this statement.

Just using listed position only (which is probably reasonably accurate to what the system calculates their position) here is what I have.

# of EEs by position
C - 130
PF - 170
SF - 138
SG - 110
PG - 143

% EE vs Total underclassmen listed by position
C - 42%
PF - 42%
SF - 45%
SG - 44%
PG - 40%

# of graduating seniors on big board
C - 112
PF - 149
SF - 132
SG - 120
PG - 123

I like how you both used valid. Super cute.

Number 9 moved up to #6 and stayed.

Number 17 moved up to #16 and left early.

Posted by Trentonjoe on 3/12/2020 11:40:00 AM (view original):
Number 9 moved up to #6 and stayed.

Number 17 moved up to #16 and left early.

Hit the jackpot