Posted by mlitney on 4/2/2020 7:57:00 PM (view original):
Just from a recent battle, I was ahead very high versus high with just 15 minutes promised (maxed hv & CV). Right before signings start, other school jumped to very high (I assumed they offered start). I then offered a start and pushed other school back down to high. The eventual result was 69% (me) to 31%. Recruit had no playing preference.
So I guess a start is maybe worth around 10-15% advantage, all else being equal. Of course this is guesswork and probably not accurate (maybe even nonsensical?). Lol.
i could certainly wrong here, but i would vote for the nonsensical option! :)
the reason is, while i am foggy on a huge amount of 3.0 recruiting stuff, i am pretty confident the promises do an amount of value for a given situation - which can't really be measured in %. i think the general model is:
1) each action is worth a concrete, tangible amount of effort (say, 50 points) - even if this amount might vary by situation (a promise could be impacted by how the recruit views the school, for example - not sure if it does, but perhaps?)
2) when an action is applied, the amount of effort is multiplied by applicable modifiers (prestige and preferences, at a minimum)
3) at this point, there is a concrete # of points for every school involved. i believe the % lead of the leader is calculated over each school, which is then converted to a % chance of winning, for each team.
anyway, that said - the % change of a start varies wildly. in a low effort situation, where its a ship + 50ap for 2 schools, a start will take it from a 50/50 to a 100/0 - so thats 50%. in a 20hv, cv, 1000 ap battle, that start might move the needle perhaps 6% or whatever (just picking a #). so, i think the answer to jimmy's very good question here, would be in the form of # of AP, # of HV, etc