Player wants to play, wants success, prefers paint style, strong conference, and press defense.

Team A is D1, A prestige.
120 AP (80 AP and scholarship after the promises)
No visits
25 minutes + start
Wants success - VG
Paint - neutral
Press - good
Conference - good

Team B is D3, A prestige.
561 AP
9 Home
1 Campus
20 minutes and start, offered at the very end
Want Success - Good
Paint - Very Good
Strong Conference- Good
Press - Neutral

Is there a battle, and if so, what are the odds?

There better not be a battle here....but I'll guess 77-23 DI if there is one....

No way this is a battle. A DI (a good one, at that) who offers a Start and 25 Minutes to a DI recruit who wants to play should absolutely bury a DIII.

I think it's close to being a battle, but not quite.

I have the total recruiting effort about 4:1 in favor of the D1.

Team D1 wins 100%

Another thing with this specific situation.

Since the DIII is recruiting a DI recruit, we know he can't sign him until the final day of the second session. So the recruit's signing preference makes a huge difference here. It's the DIII's responsibility to "pull down" the DI to at least Moderate for practically two whole sessions. Zero chance he's able to do that.

My guess this is a last ditch effort on the part of the D1 to land a backup on the second to last day of recruiting. It goes to a coin flip due to timing and lack of resources for the D1 to make the home visits and host the campus visit. Outcome, unjust as it might seem to be, the D3 gets 50% odds of signing because of preferences and effort combined.

I'm with Favre. I wouldn't be shocked to see the D3 favored, in fact I would lean that way rather than the D1 being favored. If the D3 isn't able to sign yet (signs before last 24 hours) then it won't be a roll because the D1 will be in signing range.

When can we know?

Some were fairly close. There was a battle, and it was 75-25 in favor of team A. The recruit chose team B. Such is life. Team B’s odds would have been a bit better had the promises come early. But they would likely still be behind quite a bit at the end, I think.

This was indeed a recruit I only looked at on the last day prior to opening up to D3, getting just 3 cycles of attention. Had my initial battles ended one cycle earlier, the player would be a Jayhawk with no battle, though to be honest the only reason I made the promises was because he’s likely to be ineligible, and I knew I wouldn’t have to keep them - and if I did, letting him walk wasn’t a big deal. He was in the mid-70s by position, and projects out to be at low-70s to low-80s in cores. He’s a marginal bench player at D1, who would have been decent insurance against losing battles and EEs in the next few years, but basically an afterthought, literally. He’ll be an excellent D3 player.

Posted by pallas on 5/6/2020 3:08:00 PM (view original):
No way this is a battle. A DI (a good one, at that) who offers a Start and 25 Minutes to a DI recruit who wants to play should absolutely bury a DIII.

This.

Ridiculous this is a battle IMO.

Yeah, fix this. And only do VH, VH rolls. I lost a 75-25 roll this morning and it is impossible to think it’s logic.

Posted by zorzii on 5/7/2020 7:38:00 AM (view original):
Yeah, fix this. And only do VH, VH rolls. I lost a 75-25 roll this morning and it is impossible to think it’s logic.

Why is it impossible to think that something that would happen 25% of the time happened?

You know how many times I've been 2- or 3-outered in poker games? Or pulled runner-runner after a bluff shove? Low probability events can happen quite often when you have big samples.

I think it’s about right, in terms of risk/reward gameplay. Had I launched in sooner, I’d have taken him without a battle. Had I reserved cash for a last minute plan C option, I’d have taken him without a battle. I didn’t do those things beecause I did not prioritize carrying a project big this year. I don’t need the roster insurance for frontcourt players, I don’t currently have any high or even moderate risk early entry candidates there. So after losing my prime target, I’m fine just taking my chances next season. The system didn’t screw me, I just didn’t prioritize him enough to gaurantee a win.

The big thing I think this shows is that the idea that a D3 team can do enough to keep up and get in range with a decent D1 program who matches visits is clearly nonsense. This shows us pretty close to the low end of how much a D1 team has to do to put away an invested D3. And it isn’t much.