Posted by gillispie1 on 5/15/2020 7:24:00 PM (view original):
Posted by sol_phenom3 on 5/15/2020 3:54:00 PM (view original):
Posted by emy1013 on 5/15/2020 3:46:00 PM (view original):
Posted by sportstar6ms on 5/15/2020 12:00:00 PM (view original):
On first glance, what are your third point settings? I think you have way too many players shooting threes.
This is the first thing I noticed as well. Dial back on the threes and you'll probably see some improvement immediately. Too many wasted possessions.
And running slowdown every game with wasted possessions...that's a recipe for a losing record.
what do you mean - that running slowdown makes it worse? i sort of get theres a mentality like, having fewer possessions just makes each one matter more. perhaps that is where you are coming from? but in the simulation i think its pretty generally the case that the losing team benefits from the fewer possessions / increased volatility. bigger chance of upset. so if hes a losing record team - isn't the slowdown helping him, generally speaking?
im not saying he shouldn't run slowdown, i really have no idea if he should run slowdown, i just think in general if someone is wasting possessions, and they go play fewer possessions, both the # of possessions total and the # of wasted scale together. its really more about the % of wasted possessions than the count, is what im getting at. but i'm also uncertain i'm reading you the right way...
anyway the reason i ask is i usually suggest for crappy and rebuilding teams to run slowdown, both to increase the RNG and to ease the burden of talent required to field an effective squad.
Hey gil, I should clarify, my emphasis was on
every game. His team isn't that bad - they're good enough to be at .500 and 5-14 is a surprising outcome given the talent on his squad.
The fact that he ran slowdown and had all his players set to 0 for 3pt settings in
every game is the main issue here. Because against lesser opponents his running slowdown and generating a high % of wasted possessions resulted in some of those shocking losses to 300+ RPI squads. In those instances, had had he run normal, he would have generated more possessions and more play distribution variability (with more subs and different player matchups against teams that have even less depth than he has) which should increase his offensive efficiency.
I by no means meant to imply that he shouldn't run slowdown. He should against the programs that are faster/more athletic than his and he should also rectify his 3 pt settings so his team takes smarter shots. If he can get his team to take smarter shots he can probably even get away with running slowdown against weaker or equal opponents because by substantially increasing his offensive efficiency he should also increase his win probability.
But yes, I also meant that generally speaking fewer possessions = increased value in each possession. To your point, wasted possessions % should scale, particularly for weaker teams, so tempo is honestly irrelevant. But I don't think that's the case in every instance, particularly when taking into account the play distribution variability generated by an increase in unique offensive possessions. More plays = more variations in matchups which should have a significant influence on that wasted possessions % (though, to your point, this could drive that % up
or down depending on quality & depth of the team).