actually, a bolt of recollection just hit me. i still have no idea if i got a longshot job but i remember i wanted to evaluate this myself - so i had a policy of applying to every job with longshot or the other status... keep looking is it? - anyway this was when i didn't want to move jobs (or had extra applications to spare) - so i would apply, wait, then pull my resume if i wasn't immediately rejected. i believe i carried on like this for a while and felt the ratio of instant rejection felt like you'd get somewhere around 1 shot in every 10. now, if those are attractive jobs, your odds of getting it from there are pretty low - so actual ratio of jobs gotten is probably minuscule. but that is sort of a different question right - we all know the better resume wins (by whatever dumb metric is used) - and the interest will vary by school. but you can investigate when you even quality easily.
so yeah - just do that (if you still care to find out, that is!). any time you don't want to leave a job just use all your job apps on all the available longshot / keep lookings and you'll get a feel for what the actually chance is. actually if random folks want to do this like 2x each, it takes literally 2 minutes of effort, we could perhaps get like 100 applications in a pretty short period and actually have a sense what the odds are here in 3.0 era.