If I understand your question, and the projection report, I think the game with team B is a higher stakes game. I think beating them helps you more and losing to them hurts you more. That is not a strongly held position, though, and I have no data.

No data here either but my guess is that beating Team A helps more and losing to team B hurts more. I guess my thinking is that a win over Team A would help your own SOS and RPI (assuming that A's own schedule isn't complete trash and B's isn't a murderer's row) more than the win over Team B. Since RPI/SOS (along with your team's record) seem to be the prime drivers of where a team ends up on the PR, that's why I'm going with Team A. Again, only the eyeball test for my guesses, no firm data. I'm also inclined to believe that wins over a human coached team are valued more on the PR than a win over the exact same team that was Sim coached would be. Just a hunch on that one though.

B helps more. Although if team A was #100 RPI I wouldn’t be so quick to answer.

For the record, I appreciate mully trying to not throw shade. But I am team B. And he feels as if I'm hurting the conference. I'm being transparent because I'd really like to know the answer. As I'm new to D1 and I feel like I'm not wrong in this situation. But there's more to the story.

First of all, those numbers were before last night's sim. I ended non con with SOS 5 at Louisville. 4-6 or 3-7 I forget. But the conference that mully and I share, in my opinion HAS to be the weakest Big 6 conference in all of HD. No offense to him, myself, or anyone there. We have 6 sims I think, and only like 2 established human controlled programs.

Going into last night with 9 games remaining in conference play, 7 of my 9 left were all +100 rpi, some in the 200s.

So my view was that I was "expecting" to win those 7. And the other two, to be honest I'd likely lose. It's only my 3rd season there.

My argument was, in what world is it better to beat a team with 104 rpi and 309 sos, compared to beating a team that's 64 rpi and 20 sos?! That makes no sense to me. No matter what the wins or losses are for either team. Mully beat me (64/20) this season. And I told him that's a quality win. He hasn't played the 104/309 team, but he feels winning that game does more for him because they're 15-2.

I just don't see how that makes any sense. I'm 10 spots higher than mully on the projection list, and mully is 6 spots higher than the 104/309 team.

I'm open to learn if I'm incorrect. But I just do not feel like I am. If i am wrong, just another learning bump in D1 for me I guess. But I really need to know this answer cuz it baffles me if I'm incorrect. It would go against everything I understood about HD rankings and projections.

Thanks for your time to anyone who wants to contribute

Can we get some input from any D1 coaches on this please?

if you're looking at strictly RPI the opponent record makes up 50%, and the opponent opponents record is 25%. In that case the RPI should improve more with a win over 15-2 record. Long ways to the end of the season for those records to move.

Posted by oldwarrior on 8/2/2020 7:30:00 PM (view original):
if you're looking at strictly RPI the opponent record makes up 50%, and the opponent opponents record is 25%. In that case the RPI should improve more with a win over 15-2 record. Long ways to the end of the season for those records to move.

^^^ This was the answer I was waiting for.
Team A has an 88% winning %.
Team B has a 53% winning %.

RPI is STILL the biggest driver for projection report placement and I don't believe the "quality opponent" bump you get for playing Team B offsets the 35% difference in winning %.

I think you gotta look at the record at end of the season. I would expect team B to pick up more wins than Team A the rest of the season.

Irrelevant for this particular discussion. This is really only about whether Team A or Team B help "me" get a better projection report ranking based only on the data given.

Posted by mullycj on 8/2/2020 8:12:00 PM (view original):
Irrelevant for this particular discussion. This is really only about whether Team A or Team B help "me" get a better projection report ranking based only on the data given.

I think that at the end of the day, it's super minor. It's like asking how much of a better shooter the guy with 90 PER over 89 PER. Max 1 spot difference on projection report.

If rpi is the biggest driver for projection report, then why was team B 16 places higher than team A on projections?

I just don't believe it's JUST the rpi. I feel it's the rpi, sos, wins against top 100 (which I assume I have many more of than team A but I didn't look), and a few other factors

Also keep in mind these numbers are from yesterday if anyone is looking on their own. I lost to a sim last night and things look different. But having said that, THAT is my point I'm trying to get to. I just feel that it all needs to be settled at the end of the season and not midseason. Sure if I lose the rest of the games, then I can see mullys argument here. But if I win every game the rest of the season, it's not even a discussion, in my opinion

Mully,

Here are the current numbers. You’ll see by the end of the season whether you’re right; I have a feeling you won’t be. As team A loses games they will decrease, their sim controlled opponents in non-conference were horrendous. There is a reason why they aren’t an NT team.


***Currently***


Team A

37.5 out of 50 (Record)
7.08 out of 25 (Opponent Record)

44.58 out of 75


Team B

32 out of 50 (Record)
17.44 out of 25 (Opponent Record)

49.44 out of 75

Posted by mullycj on 8/2/2020 7:48:00 PM (view original):

Posted by oldwarrior on 8/2/2020 7:30:00 PM (view original):
if you're looking at strictly RPI the opponent record makes up 50%, and the opponent opponents record is 25%. In that case the RPI should improve more with a win over 15-2 record. Long ways to the end of the season for those records to move.

^^^ This was the answer I was waiting for.
Team A has an 88% winning %.
Team B has a 53% winning %.

RPI is STILL the biggest driver for projection report placement and I don't believe the "quality opponent" bump you get for playing Team B offsets the 35% difference in winning %.

If the question is *at a specific point midway through the season*, what win is going to move you higher up the PR, I still think the answer is B. At game 18, notching another top 100 RPI win will have a bigger impact, I think, than the amount the opponent’s record changes those SOS/RPI formulas; in other words, the quality opponent bump is direct.

Now there is lots of season left, and as I understand it, team A could end up being a top 100 team, and thus end up eventually counting as a top 100 or even top 50 win, which would change the equation. But the point at which you ask the question, i think B is doing more for you.

Since, as oldwarrior mentioned, opponents' records is 50%, if your own record/RPI is good enough it could make the 104 RPI jump into the top 100 even if they lose to you (also dependent upon what teams in the 90 through 110 range do on that given night). That could give you a top 100 win even though when you played them they were not in the top 100. In general, it's kind of a silly question taking it out of context of the season at large.