Posted by just4me on 12/9/2020 11:34:00 AM (view original):

Posted by d_rock97 on 12/9/2020 10:56:00 AM (view original):

Posted by just4me on 12/9/2020 12:36:00 AM (view original):

Posted by ozomatli on 12/8/2020 8:12:00 PM (view original):

Posted by just4me on 12/8/2020 4:30:00 PM (view original):

Posted by adlorenz on 12/8/2020 4:17:00 PM (view original):
What should those numbers be in the draft center? Right now its 1500 IP and 6000 PA.

Think of the bottom of the barrel new player, if they didn't know how to use $200k players to soak up innings in blow outs or utilize their AAA's properly... what do you think the recommended IP/PA should be in the draft center.

Thanks!

Adam

1,300 IP and 5,200 PA

With the built in 10% buffer already, that's more than enough for anyone, even without AAA or even if they choose a hitter-friendly park like Coors. That would go a VERY LONG WAY towards helping new owners be competitive from the get go. But if you're afraid that's cutting too close (I don't think it is), you could even add a small note that if they choose a hitter friendly park, they may want to have a little buffer and take another 50-100 IP and 200-400 PA.

This still isn't right, IMO.

1,300 IP for a new player will lead to a ton of fatigue death spirals. The right number should be 1,450 (162 * 9 = 1,458). Adding a note that says expert players go much lower should be enough and give them something to work for. If you combine this with the suggestion of a "beginner's league" that isolates newbies from vets, recommending a number like 1,300 becomes less important for competitive reasons since everyone will be new. Then, they'll learn over time and understand there will be a learning curve when they "graduate" to regular leagues.

The PA recommendation is about right, but it'd be more useful to recommend a per position number. This makes it more actionable for new players. Oh, I need 650 PAs for each position, cool (rather than, ok I need 5,200 between my starters and bench)

This doesn’t take into account the 10% buffer. With that added in, 1,300 IP equals 1,430 give or take. With 1,350, even in Coors, there’s no real chance of a fatigue death spiral unless a team is just completely neglected, and even then, it would happen with 1,600 IP under those same circumstances.

There’s never a reason to draft more than 1,350 IP in an $80m league. 1,300 is very reasonable and only needs more in the most extreme circumstances.

That’s assuming new players draft good pitchers. I’ve seen some guys put pitchers with 7 ERAs IRL in their rotation, and play them on a regular basis. Gotta account for...illogical reasoning

But those poor quality pitchers have extra pitches built in by default. See https://www.whatifsports.com/forums/Posts.aspx?topicID=522636 where I took the literally worst/cheapest 1,300 IP I could into an OL and had no fatigue issues, ended up waiving one and picking up an RP and bringing me to 1,222 IP and still had no fatigue issues (and finished 83-79). I wasn't in Coors, but even in Coors with poor pitchers, unless severely mismanaged (which if is happening would still happen with significantly more IP), you don't need more than 1,350 as a safeguard against fatigue. 1,300 is adequate even in Coors unless you get significantly unlucky with a bunch of extra inning games early on or completely mismanage your staff.

Right — but again, what's a more likely reason to leave the site:

• Not winning quite as many games in their first season as they would have with 50 fewer IP
• Winning 20 games all season because you (as a newbie) severely mismanaged your staff and/or had multiple extra inning games

This isn't about helping newbies win the WS, it's about helping them stay on the site longer than 1 or 2 teams.

Posted by milest on 12/9/2020 12:19:00 PM (view original):
Since the topic of AAA is being discussed:
I think the whole concept of AAA (Rookies in the NBA sim) is ridiculous.

All it is is an unwarranted addition of unfair randomness.
If you get a great AAA draw, you're ahead of the game. I'd you get a poor AAA draw (either quality or quantity wise), you're screwed. Neither is fair.

If i enter a league with Ozomatli, Skunk, Redcped, etc- I want to see which one of us builds the best team within the league rules.. I'm not interested in seeing who can get the luckiest in terms of a random AAA draw.

None of it makes any sense whatsoever to me.

I started playing WIS in the NBA sim and the rookie concept total ruins open leagues. You can't really win at the highest possible percentage unless you build your team with the rookies in mind- yet you screwed if they end up no providing what you need (as far as quality, number of minutes they can play, and position played- getting 'what you need' from your rookie class is much more vital in the NBA sim that MLB imo- I can explain if anyone is interested bit it's not really important to the overall point). You have MUCH more control of your success in leagues without rookies... personally, this is why I dont play in open leagues (I will play in 1 or 2 every 2 years or so just to remember why I hate them) and I HAVE to believe I'm not the only one who chooses not to play open leagues for those very same reasons..

Open leagues are advertised/treated like the place for beginners to start.. If they get screwed by the AAA/rookie draw (which is extremely possible) they're not gonna come back- and that's the main point of this conversation.

AAA are fine but milest is right that it's weird to have them in Open Leagues. Open Leagues (or Beginner Leagues, if you guys end up creating those) should be as simple and straightforward as possible

AAA = added complexity

Posted by ozomatli on 12/9/2020 12:58:00 PM (view original):

Posted by just4me on 12/9/2020 11:34:00 AM (view original):

Posted by d_rock97 on 12/9/2020 10:56:00 AM (view original):

Posted by just4me on 12/9/2020 12:36:00 AM (view original):

Posted by ozomatli on 12/8/2020 8:12:00 PM (view original):

Posted by just4me on 12/8/2020 4:30:00 PM (view original):

Posted by adlorenz on 12/8/2020 4:17:00 PM (view original):
What should those numbers be in the draft center? Right now its 1500 IP and 6000 PA.

Think of the bottom of the barrel new player, if they didn't know how to use $200k players to soak up innings in blow outs or utilize their AAA's properly... what do you think the recommended IP/PA should be in the draft center.

Thanks!

Adam

1,300 IP and 5,200 PA

With the built in 10% buffer already, that's more than enough for anyone, even without AAA or even if they choose a hitter-friendly park like Coors. That would go a VERY LONG WAY towards helping new owners be competitive from the get go. But if you're afraid that's cutting too close (I don't think it is), you could even add a small note that if they choose a hitter friendly park, they may want to have a little buffer and take another 50-100 IP and 200-400 PA.

This still isn't right, IMO.

1,300 IP for a new player will lead to a ton of fatigue death spirals. The right number should be 1,450 (162 * 9 = 1,458). Adding a note that says expert players go much lower should be enough and give them something to work for. If you combine this with the suggestion of a "beginner's league" that isolates newbies from vets, recommending a number like 1,300 becomes less important for competitive reasons since everyone will be new. Then, they'll learn over time and understand there will be a learning curve when they "graduate" to regular leagues.

The PA recommendation is about right, but it'd be more useful to recommend a per position number. This makes it more actionable for new players. Oh, I need 650 PAs for each position, cool (rather than, ok I need 5,200 between my starters and bench)

This doesn’t take into account the 10% buffer. With that added in, 1,300 IP equals 1,430 give or take. With 1,350, even in Coors, there’s no real chance of a fatigue death spiral unless a team is just completely neglected, and even then, it would happen with 1,600 IP under those same circumstances.

There’s never a reason to draft more than 1,350 IP in an $80m league. 1,300 is very reasonable and only needs more in the most extreme circumstances.

That’s assuming new players draft good pitchers. I’ve seen some guys put pitchers with 7 ERAs IRL in their rotation, and play them on a regular basis. Gotta account for...illogical reasoning

But those poor quality pitchers have extra pitches built in by default. See https://www.whatifsports.com/forums/Posts.aspx?topicID=522636 where I took the literally worst/cheapest 1,300 IP I could into an OL and had no fatigue issues, ended up waiving one and picking up an RP and bringing me to 1,222 IP and still had no fatigue issues (and finished 83-79). I wasn't in Coors, but even in Coors with poor pitchers, unless severely mismanaged (which if is happening would still happen with significantly more IP), you don't need more than 1,350 as a safeguard against fatigue. 1,300 is adequate even in Coors unless you get significantly unlucky with a bunch of extra inning games early on or completely mismanage your staff.

Right — but again, what's a more likely reason to leave the site:

• Not winning quite as many games in their first season as they would have with 50 fewer IP
• Winning 20 games all season because you (as a newbie) severely mismanaged your staff and/or had multiple extra inning games

This isn't about helping newbies win the WS, it's about helping them stay on the site longer than 1 or 2 teams.

The example above was to show the effect of poor quality pitchers in regards to the effect of needed IP. Quality doesn't affect it because they have extra pitches built in. Mismanagement is the culprit as long as you have at least 1,300-1,350 IP at $80m. If they're mismanaging 1,300 or 1,350 IP, they'll also mismanage 1,400 or 1,600 IP. (And the extra innings would only come into play if they had 1,300 IP and then had somewhere north of 40 extra innings in their first 12 games - unlikely, but thrown out there because it is possible; at 1,350 IP, that's no longer an issue.)

Agree on the goal being to keep new users on the site and not winning titles, but the more wins they get in the first run (without risk of snowballing), the more likely they are to stay. 1,400 is a good compromise to start, but there's still wasted salary, especially if they discover and use AAA. I'm just saying the wasted salary should be a choice, not a recommendation.

AAA is only an added complexity in the current system.

if you remove the fake names that forces owners to know detailed information in order to find out their true quality, and just put real names for the AAA players, and explain in the draft center that you get AAA and the benefit they can add, then there’s no added complexity.

Veteran players understand what that benefit is worth, for newbies it's another thing to account for that they've never seen before (like the game itself).

Newbies don't even know to degree to which deadball pitchers suppress HRs. We should be setting them up for success, not expecting them to understand more than they have to.

Posted by ozomatli on 12/9/2020 3:24:00 PM (view original):
Veteran players understand what that benefit is worth, for newbies it's another thing to account for that they've never seen before (like the game itself).

Newbies don't even know to degree to which deadball pitchers suppress HRs. We should be setting them up for success, not expecting them to understand more than they have to.

I guess I just disagree that AAA would detract from that. If anything I feel AAA would be a tool that can help when they don’t draft well

I think my biggest point I’m trying to make is, really in regards to everything, new owners aren’t given the necessary information or tools for success. Inning recommendations, “beginner leagues”, no AAA...none of that will fix the issues we currently have if they’re not given better tools and information to succeed.