TWISL: Effects of Fatigue Results & Observations Topic

Unlike the last post on fatigue, this one is both from a league explicitly testing pitcher fatigue and also features more than one pitcher.

I won't really be looking at in-game fatigue because overall, it wasn't much of a factor. I will call out the few cases where in-game fatigue was a factor as a side note, similar to where I'll call out the one case where appearance fatigue was a factor. Otherwise, the fatigue presented below is strictly pitch-based fatigue.

Aside from showing the overall fatigue from the different fatigue levels and comparing the performances from the fatigue teams to the control teams, I'll also be answering a few questions that came up during the league about why certain teams were performing certain ways. One of the answers to these question centers on defense, so I've also included a few defensive-oriented metrics to highlight those answers. Another answer centers on managerial settings, so I've included metrics to highlight those answers.

So first, the league setup:

Pitching: All Group A (Control) teams and Group B (Test) teams will roster identical pitching staffs with one exception; the Test teams will remove 1994 Brett Saberhagen from their roster. This will leave all Control teams with 1355IP and all Test teams with 1100IP. Control teams must employ a 4-man rotation of Maddux, Saberhagen, Halladay, and Lee, while the Test teams must employ a 3-man rotation of Maddux, Halladay, and Lee. In order to combat early season fatigue, you may start whomever you like the first two games, but rotations need to be set after that. For Control teams, I would like your autorest to be between 90%-95%, for Test teams, I would like your autorest to be between 70%-75%. Any micro managing/bullpen setup is up to the individual owner (If you wanna give Fister a spot start here and there to keep your guys from fatiguing too quickly, you can do so - just please consider the theme goals as you do so)

Role Player T W-L-S IP/162 ERA OAV WHIP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 K-BB Salary
SP 1996 Greg Maddux R 15-11-0 245 2.72 0.241 1.03 6.32 1.03 0.4 172-28 $8,407,161
SP/RP 2011 Roy Halladay R 19-6-0 234 2.35 0.239 1.04 8.47 1.35 0.39 220-35 $7,857,245
SP/RP 2010 Cliff Lee L 12-9-2000 212 3.18 0.24 1 7.84 0.76 0.68 185-18 $6,812,030
SP/RP 1994 Bret Saberhagen R 14-4-0 255 2.74 0.254 1.03 7.26 0.66 0.66 143-13 $7,875,590
SP/RP 2011 Doug Fister R 8-1-2000 70 1.79 0.206 0.84 7.29 0.64 0.51 57-5 $3,018,490
SP/RP 2015 Alex Wilson R 3-3-2002 70 2.19 0.238 1.03 4.89 1.41 0.64 38-11 $1,866,761
SP/RP 2014 Scott Atchison R 6-0-2 72 2.75 0.227 1.03 6.13 1.75 0.5 49-14 $2,110,181
SP/RP 2002 Mariano Rivera R 1-4-28 47 2.74 0.203 1 8.02 2.15 0.59 41-11 $1,612,112
SP/RP 2017 Sean Doolittle L 2-0-24 51 2.81 0.185 0.86 10.87 1.75 0.88 62-10 $2,092,862
SP/RP 1912 Carl Weilman L 2-4-2001 51 2.79 0.227 0.93 4.47 0.56 0 24-3 $1,995,364
SP/RP 2008 Billy Wagner L 2000-1-27 47 2.3 0.185 0.89 9.96 1.91 0.77 52-10 $1,920,067

Offense: This is where it gets really interesting. You get to select whatever offense you want. Test teams will have an additional $7,875,590 due to cutting Saberhagen. The only rule is that you may not add another pitcher to your roster. Improve your offense however you like, but don't change the pitching staff.


The data I have below is only for the other three starters (Maddux, Halladay, Lee) that were in every team in the league. I make points about bullpen use and highlight where we can see that in the data below, but I did not pull each game log for every pitcher in the league.

There were three owners with both a control and fatigue team, for comparison sake I have highlighted each pair of these teams in matching colors to easily see the managerial differences between the two teams and the effects thereof.
12/19/2020 6:02 PM (edited)
Before getting into the fun data, here are the full team stats for offense, defense, and pitching.
First, the offense (this will help explain the W/L records of some of the teams that had similar pitching stats):
Team G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO HBP SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS
Well-rested Whompers 162 6063 1081 1849 395 37 214 1047 276 841 56 63 33 0.305 0.340 0.488 0.828 Control
TWISL- Fatigue Team 162 6060 991 1798 386 48 214 968 345 845 36 91 43 0.297 0.337 0.482 0.819 Fatigue
TWISL- Control Team 162 6087 1126 1822 318 28 228 1091 454 715 75 2 8 0.299 0.354 0.473 0.827 Control
Tested Fatigue 162 5882 952 1704 331 33 288 928 412 1012 33 1 9 0.290 0.339 0.504 0.843 Fatigue
Swing in’ 60’s/I Need. A Nap 162 5864 821 1586 312 22 245 799 326 1022 38 3 11 0.270 0.312 0.457 0.769 Fatigue
So Controlled 162 5994 1099 1898 404 32 169 1067 391 621 50 71 41 0.317 0.361 0.479 0.840 Control
Running on Empty 162 6103 996 1890 426 31 132 961 398 638 29 29 7 0.310 0.354 0.455 0.809 Fatigue
LIFO control 162 5993 852 1740 459 38 110 828 239 654 36 4 3 0.290 0.321 0.435 0.756 Control
Im So Tired 162 5750 1011 1573 281 26 335 997 439 1156 52 24 11 0.274 0.330 0.506 0.836 Fatigue
Illusion of Control 162 6116 1018 1928 363 39 123 975 373 570 50 143 23 0.315 0.358 0.448 0.806 Control
Fatigue is Just a State of Mind 162 6146 1137 1911 416 31 131 1097 441 756 32 114 38 0.311 0.359 0.453 0.812 Fatigue
Controlled Fatigue 162 5774 1050 1638 342 28 309 1025 479 953 45 22 9 0.284 0.342 0.513 0.855 Control
Control vs. Kaos 162 6145 984 1978 388 53 44 945 275 577 45 104 63 0.322 0.354 0.424 0.778 Control
Control Switched On 162 6208 1021 1964 379 43 212 990 289 827 35 30 28 0.316 0.349 0.494 0.843 Control
Chicks dig the long ball 162 5824 921 1570 269 23 356 906 367 1249 35 22 13 0.270 0.315 0.507 0.822 Fatigue
70% Of the Time, We Pitch Every Time. 162 6157 1088 1913 354 55 187 1051 316 804 53 98 51 0.311 0.348 0.477 0.825 Fatigue
LEAGUE AVERAGE 162 6010 1009 1798 364 35 206 980 364 828 44 51 24 0.299 0.342 0.474 0.816
12/19/2020 6:02 PM (edited)
Next, the defense (this will help explain how some of the fatigue teams survived and/or thrived, or how some didn't):
Team GP PO A E DP FPCT + - PB CS SBA CS% PK Type
70% Of the Time, We Pitch Every Time. 162 4282 1679 160 293 0.974 157 59 15 36 168 0.214 5 Control
Chicks dig the long ball 162 4201 1738 120 410 0.980 36 95 9 46 158 0.291 1 Fatigue
Control Switched On 162 4445 1558 120 262 0.980 11 80 9 48 102 0.471 1 Control
Control vs. Kaos 162 4398 1559 135 275 0.978 113 11 9 38 101 0.376 2 Fatigue
Controlled Fatigue 162 4355 1637 122 297 0.980 92 23 6 54 188 0.287 2 Fatigue
Fatigue is Just a State of Mind 162 4332 1778 159 341 0.975 207 21 6 30 50 0.600 1 Control
Illusion of Control 162 4372 1513 94 275 0.984 42 57 5 34 176 0.193 2 Fatigue
Im So Tired 162 4244 1702 144 348 0.976 63 38 10 62 199 0.312 1 Control
LIFO control 162 4351 1507 85 267 0.986 19 58 1 30 130 0.231 2 Fatigue
Running on Empty 162 4271 1688 113 310 0.981 74 41 9 74 160 0.463 0 Control
So Controlled 162 4370 1558 130 279 0.979 131 26 8 40 132 0.303 0 Fatigue
Swing in’ 60’s/I Need. A Nap 162 4184 1747 175 447 0.971 128 68 13 54 116 0.466 3 Control
Tested Fatigue 162 4284 1758 129 387 0.979 129 22 5 52 174 0.299 2 Control
TWISL- Control Team 162 4345 1567 143 263 0.976 76 65 31 32 216 0.148 2 Control
TWISL- Fatigue Team 162 4345 1645 135 283 0.978 148 32 26 54 157 0.344 0 Fatigue
Well-rested Whompers 162 4393 1599 233 280 0.963 115 28 59 46 140 0.329 2 Fatigue
LEAGUE AVERAGE 162 4323 1640 137 314 0.978 96 45 14 46 148 0.308 2
12/19/2020 6:03 PM (edited)
Finally, the pitching stats (I've included both basic and advanced here as the advanced data gets used for some of the other metrics later):
Team G CG SHO W L SV SVO IP H R ER HR BB SO OAV OBP SLG WHIP ERA Type
Well-rested Whompers 573 1 1 113 49 50 61 1,464.33 1464 625 485 94 222 1002 0.250 0.281 0.359 1.15 2.98 Control
TWISL- Fatigue Team 667 7 2 93 69 30 48 1,448.33 1560 771 676 203 260 780 0.269 0.303 0.430 1.26 4.20 Fatigue
TWISL- Control Team 568 7 2 101 61 38 53 1,448.33 1578 724 630 104 225 1007 0.271 0.302 0.396 1.24 3.91 Control
Tested Fatigue 627 2 0 67 95 20 43 1,428.00 1800 973 887 215 354 682 0.303 0.346 0.484 1.51 5.59 Fatigue
Swing in’ 60’s/I Need. A Nap 550 26 0 15 147 5 14 1,394.67 2797 2356 2122 399 986 405 0.410 0.486 0.696 2.71 13.69 Fatigue
So Controlled 649 3 2 112 50 46 65 1,456.67 1369 610 521 134 232 1000 0.242 0.277 0.369 1.10 3.22 Control
Running on Empty 612 1 1 57 105 15 37 1,423.67 1934 1124 1023 278 335 696 0.320 0.359 0.531 1.59 6.47 Fatigue
LIFO control 515 10 0 94 68 47 56 1,450.33 1584 686 632 128 219 1065 0.272 0.301 0.403 1.24 3.92 Control
Im So Tired 644 4 1 64 98 31 55 1,414.67 1946 1132 1013 251 438 677 0.321 0.369 0.517 1.69 6.44 Fatigue
Illusion of Control 659 1 1 104 58 33 48 1,457.33 1544 693 622 134 207 1064 0.266 0.294 0.401 1.20 3.84 Control
Fatigue is Just a State of Mind 846 0 0 87 75 34 48 1,444.00 1744 964 844 227 331 638 0.293 0.334 0.474 1.44 5.26 Fatigue
Controlled Fatigue 516 12 3 104 58 34 48 1,451.67 1548 647 575 116 189 958 0.267 0.294 0.387 1.20 3.56 Control
Control vs. Kaos 471 14 3 116 46 46 60 1,466.00 1389 594 523 129 214 1063 0.243 0.274 0.371 1.09 3.21 Control
Control Switched On 713 0 0 92 70 33 52 1,481.67 1630 741 673 147 265 1031 0.273 0.307 0.410 1.28 4.09 Control
Chicks dig the long ball 623 14 0 18 144 10 22 1,400.33 2802 2160 2018 475 782 528 0.408 0.471 0.731 2.56 12.97 Fatigue
70% Of the Time, We Pitch Every Time. 765 0 0 59 103 22 59 1,427.33 2073 1348 1211 263 561 644 0.332 0.389 0.531 1.85 7.64 Fatigue
LEAGUE AVERAGE 625 6 1 81 81 31 48 1,441.08 1798 1009 903 206 364 828 0.299 0.342 0.474 1.50 5.64
Team QS IR IRS IBB HBP WP BK GIDP GB/FB BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB BFP NP/G NP/PA Type
Well-rested Whompers 115 138 32 6 35 8 4 100 1.2 1.4 6.2 4.5 6199 124.9 3.3 Control
TWISL- Fatigue Team 70 234 65 0 38 6 5 103 1.1 1.6 4.8 3.0 6190 124.9 3.3 Fatigue
TWISL- Control Team 104 183 51 0 46 7 4 93 1.2 1.4 6.3 4.5 6207 125.5 3.3 Control
Tested Fatigue 75 301 116 2 52 16 3 136 1.2 2.2 4.3 1.9 6430 129.8 3.3 Fatigue
Swing in’ 60’s/I Need. A Nap 15 353 167 39 73 12 7 160 1.2 6.4 2.6 0.4 7992 165.8 3.4 Fatigue
So Controlled 114 192 58 10 49 7 2 98 1.2 1.4 6.2 4.3 6011 122.6 3.3 Control
Running on Empty 67 291 114 0 41 8 1 108 1.2 2.1 4.4 2.1 6521 131.0 3.3 Fatigue
LIFO control 94 165 51 36 33 18 0 95 1.1 1.4 6.6 4.9 6140 126.0 3.3 Control
Im So Tired 76 270 97 17 44 12 3 112 1.2 2.3 5.2 3.1 6506 132.5 3.3 Fatigue
Illusion of Control 49 292 117 43 40 11 1 123 1.2 2.8 4.3 1.5 6620 134.8 3.3 Control
Fatigue is Just a State of Mind 92 265 71 1 35 10 5 100 1.2 1.3 6.6 5.1 6120 125.9 3.3 Fatigue
Controlled Fatigue 27 454 142 1 46 13 2 123 1.3 2.1 4.0 1.9 6455 129.2 3.2 Control
Control vs. Kaos 104 209 52 4 45 11 4 107 1.3 1.2 5.9 5.1 6109 123.9 3.3 Control
Control Switched On 114 88 31 0 36 8 2 96 1.2 1.3 6.5 5.0 6033 124.3 3.3 Control
Chicks dig the long ball 101 296 99 51 35 14 4 92 1.2 1.6 6.3 3.9 6354 129.6 3.3 Fatigue
70% Of the Time, We Pitch Every Time. 10 434 194 36 53 24 2 144 1.2 5.0 3.4 0.7 7754 160.1 3.3 Fatigue
LEAGUE AVERAGE 64 422 188 46 43 19 7 106 1.1 3.5 4.1 1.1 6967 142.1 3.3
12/19/2020 6:03 PM (edited)
The following is the first data breaking down fatigue. This is the totals of each individual game from the game logs of the three starting pitchers on every team and sorted by fatigue % at the beginning of their start. Each line represents all of games within designated fatigue buckets (bucket levels shown on right, average fatigue per game in that bucket on the left). I used the same buckets and coloring (to match WIS) as my last post on fatigue representing Marshall. Form these three pitchers we have 2,319 games totaling 13,514.33 IP:
Games Avg PC AVG % IP BFP PC W L SV R ER H HR SO BB WP ERA OAV WHIP TYPE
249 104.2 41.10 1299.33 7691 25936 8 167 0 2468 2244 2880 495 331 940 15 15.54 0.425 2.94 0-59%
246 172.2 64.71 1105.65 5192 16745 38 81 11 913 798 1557 209 466 271 8 6.50 0.319 1.65 60-69%
495 79.6 71.71 2755.53 12202 39419 143 168 3 1730 1535 3367 388 1325 497 11 5.01 0.289 1.40 70-74%
171 77.7 76.64 971.03 4064 13290 37 55 3 571 514 1169 113 509 164 6 4.76 0.286 1.37 75-79%
63 82.6 81.40 366.35 1606 5201 18 23 0 182 155 434 37 198 61 3 3.81 0.283 1.35 80-84%
26 85.1 86.73 156.69 673 2212 8 9 0 82 73 164 14 82 36 0 4.19 0.259 1.28 85-89%
120 92.5 92.17 777.03 3385 11095 39 42 0 436 388 918 71 530 125 7 4.49 0.283 1.34 90-94%
104 92.7 96.53 688.00 2932 9637 48 33 1 333 297 769 58 455 101 2 3.89 0.271 1.26 95-98%
845 89.1 99.92 5440.12 22821 75325 399 197 4 2362 2040 5597 369 3774 801 27 3.37 0.255 1.18 99-100%
2319 85.75 80.93 13514.33 60566 198860 738 775 22 9077 8044 16855 1754 7670 2996 79 5.36 0.294 1.47 Total
12/19/2020 4:11 PM (edited)
Maddux Team type AVG % IP BFP PC W L SV R ER H HR SO BB WP ERA OAV WHIP G G<70/99% AVG G<70% LOW % AVG PC
TWISL - Fatigue Team Fatigue 74.59 332.33 1405 4606 21 15 0 177 153 337 33 159 62 0 4.14 0.251 1.20 54 1 69% 69% 85.30
Tested Fatigue Fatigue 75.72 327.67 1418 4512 17 23 0 189 173 403 35 129 48 2 4.75 0.294 1.38 54 1 69% 69% 83.56
Fatigue is Just a State of Mind Fatigue 66.73 325.67 1437 4646 16 22 5 216 187 386 44 134 53 2 5.17 0.279 1.35 77 57 61% 46% 60.34
I m So Tired Fatigue 77.03 322.33 1398 4525 14 23 1 186 160 371 48 145 61 2 4.47 0.277 1.34 64 7 61% 54% 70.70
Running on Empty Fatigue 74.21 317.00 1405 4566 14 28 0 213 195 401 47 132 56 2 5.54 0.297 1.44 52 1 69% 69% 87.81
70% Of the Time, We Pitch Every Time. Fatigue 72.02 308.33 1412 4536 14 16 0 200 166 397 30 129 75 2 4.85 0.297 1.53 55 15 66% 58% 82.47
Swing in' 60's/I Need. A Nap Fatigue 48.38 300.33 1692 5705 3 38 0 498 451 594 94 69 203 2 13.51 0.399 2.65 52 44 41% 28% 109.71
Chicks dig the long ball Fatigue 50.26 291.33 1644 5535 3 36 0 470 429 599 79 93 185 5 13.25 0.411 2.69 47 39 45% 36% 117.77
Sub-Total 67.87 2525.00 11811 38631 102 201 6 2149 1914 3488 410 990 743 17 6.82 0.315 1.68 455 165 52% 28% 84.90
LIFO Control Control 96.60 306.00 1262 4073 21 14 0 137 125 312 22 183 39 1 3.68 0.255 1.15 42 30 95% 90% 96.98
Controlled Fatigue Control 99.65 292.33 1209 3970 20 14 0 122 104 301 17 173 42 5 3.20 0.258 1.17 40 5 98% 97% 99.25
Well-rested Whompers Control 100.00 284.33 1191 3809 22 6 0 136 96 283 14 158 32 0 3.04 0.244 1.11 42 0 -- 100% 90.69
TWISL - Control Team Control 96.64 283.67 1231 4034 15 10 0 150 126 327 11 163 45 1 4.00 0.276 1.31 39 19 93% 90% 103.44
Control vs. Kaos Control 99.73 281.33 1165 3854 20 11 0 119 103 282 21 171 40 1 3.30 0.251 1.14 41 1 98% 98% 94.00
Illusion of Control Control 98.55 276.00 1164 3834 24 10 0 126 112 304 15 160 39 2 3.65 0.270 1.24 44 4 85% 78% 87.14
Control Switched On Control 100.00 260.67 1125 3691 17 13 0 133 119 297 14 148 50 2 4.11 0.276 1.33 42 0 -- 100% 87.88
So Controlled Control 100.00 259.00 1058 3513 19 9 0 109 85 228 13 170 44 1 2.95 0.225 1.05 40 0 -- 100% 87.83
Sub-Total 98.90 2243.33 9405 30778 158 87 0 1032 870 2334 127 1326 331 13 3.49 0.258 1.19 330 59 94% 78% 93.27
Total 80.92 4768.33 21216 69409 260 288 6 3181 2784 5822 537 2316 1074 30 5.25 0.289 1.45 785 224 63% 28% 88.42
Real Life -- 245.00 978 3460 15 11 0 85 74 225 11 172 28 4 2.72 0.241 1.03 35 -- -- -- 98.86
Normalized # -- 269.50 1076 3806 15 11 0 89 77 248 10 152 30 4 2.57 0.241 1.03 35 -- -- -- 108.74
Average Fatigue 67.87 315.63 1476 4829 13 25 1 269 239 436 51 124 93 2 6.82 0.315 1.68 57 21 52% 28% 84.90
Average F%-2 73.38 322.22 1413 4565 16 21 1 197 172 383 40 138 59 2 4.81 0.284 1.37 59 14 62% 46% 76.94
Average Control 98.9 280.42 1176 3847 20 11 0 129 109 292 16 166 41 2 3.49 0.258 1.19 41 7 94% 78% 93.27
Average Overall 80.92 298.02 1326 4338 16 18 0 199 174 364 34 145 67 2 5.25 0.289 1.45 49 14 63% 28% 88.42
12/19/2020 6:04 PM (edited)
Lee Team Type AVG % IP BFP PC W L SV R ER H HR SO BB WP ERA OAV WHIP G G<70/99% AVG G<70% LOW % AVG PC
TWISL - Fatigue Team Fatigue 74.67 291 1230 3940 17 11 1 162 149 331 51 139 32 1 4.61 0.276 1.25 52 2 68% 66% 75.77
70% Of the Time, We Pitch Every Time. Fatigue 73.35 290.67 1238 3997 13 12 0 145 129 321 37 164 41 5 3.99 0.268 1.25 52 9 65% 59% 76.87
Tested Fatigue Fatigue 75.04 285 1214 3927 17 16 0 153 137 317 41 149 33 0 4.33 0.268 1.23 53 5 69% 67% 74.09
Fatigue is Just a State of Mind Fatigue 67.48 283 1297 4186 8 18 2 218 192 372 55 124 62 4 6.11 0.301 1.53 73 56 66% 56% 57.34
Swing in’ 60’s/I Need. A Nap Fatigue 46.61 280 1551 5142 2 27 1 453 374 546 86 89 161 0 12.02 0.393 2.53 61 53 41% 24% 84.30
Running on Empty Fatigue 72.62 273.33 1224 3950 11 20 0 197 174 354 51 160 39 2 5.73 0.299 1.44 47 10 68% 65% 84.04
I m So Tired Fatigue 75.05 271.33 1229 4015 16 17 1 195 165 369 49 151 44 0 5.47 0.311 1.52 62 13 66% 60% 64.76
Chicks dig the long ball Fatigue 51.24 266.67 1456 4761 2 31 0 417 400 551 105 86 117 3 13.50 0.412 2.51 45 38 45% 38% 105.80
Sub-Total 67.00 2241.00 10439 33918 86 152 5 1940 1720 3161 475 1062 529 15 6.91 0.320 1.65 445 186 54% 24% 76.22
Controlled Fatigue Control 99.85 257 1071 3417 20 8 0 108 98 271 18 156 20 2 3.43 0.258 1.13 40 1 96% 96% 85.43
LIFO Control Control 94.44 252.67 1073 3509 14 11 0 129 120 302 33 178 22 2 4.27 0.287 1.28 36 29 93% 90% 97.47
Control vs. Kaos Control 99.74 250 1038 3440 17 7 0 119 106 250 30 194 28 1 3.82 0.248 1.11 35 2 98% 97% 98.29
TWISL - Control Team Control 94.73 248.67 1075 3475 14 15 0 143 122 281 31 178 27 4 4.42 0.268 1.24 40 34 94% 91% 86.88
Illusion of Control Control 99.75 243 1025 3306 19 8 0 131 116 268 35 178 22 2 4.30 0.267 1.19 40 0 -- 99% 82.65
So Controlled Control 99.93 240 997 3240 20 5 0 113 97 237 30 148 29 3 3.64 0.245 1.11 43 1 97% 97% 75.35
Well-rested Whompers Control 100.00 238 1022 3365 19 11 0 115 88 270 13 167 25 1 3.33 0.271 1.24 37 0 -- 100% 90.95
Control Switched On Control 100.00 238 1017 3319 13 11 1 126 116 262 31 166 36 3 4.39 0.267 1.25 44 0 -- 100% 75.43
Sub-Total 98.61 1967.34 8318 27071 136 76 1 984 863 2141 221 1365 209 18 3.95 0.266 1.19 315 67 94% 91% 85.94
Total 80.10 4208.34 18757 60989 222 228 6 2924 2583 5302 696 2427 738 33 5.52 0.296 1.44 760 253 64% 24% 80.25
Real Life -- 212.33 843 3022 12 9 0 84 75 195 16 185 18 3 3.18 0.240 1.00 28 -- -- -- 107.93
Normalized # -- 233.67 927 3324 12 9 0 89 79 215 10 153 20 3 3.05 0.241 1.01 28 -- -- -- 118.71
Average Fatigue 67.00 280.13 1305 4240 11 19 1 243 215 395 59 133 66 2 6.91 0.320 1.65 56 23 54% 24% 76.22
Average F%-2 73.03 282.39 1239 4003 14 16 1 178 158 344 47 148 42 2 5.02 0.289 1.37 57 16 64% 56% 70.84
Average Control 98.61 245.92 1040 3384 17 10 0 123 108 268 28 171 26 2 3.95 0.266 1.19 39 8 94% 91% 85.94
Average Overall 80.10 263.02 1172 3812 14 14 0 183 161 331 44 152 46 2 5.52 0.296 1.44 48 16 64% 24% 80.25
12/19/2020 6:05 PM (edited)
Halladay Team Type AVG % IP BFP PC W L SV R ER H HR SO BB WP ERA OAV WHIP G G<70/99% AVG G<70% LOW % AVG PC
Fatigue is Just a State of Mind Fatigue 70.26 314.67 1436 4707 20 19 5 203 178 397 42 159 87 2 5.09 0.294 1.54 78 46 64% 49% 60.35
Tested Fatigue Fatigue 77.79 308.33 1353 4443 15 18 0 158 138 359 21 178 60 2 4.03 0.278 1.36 53 0 -- 71% 83.83
Running on Empty Fatigue 75.24 307.33 1372 4475 13 21 0 199 187 399 38 183 61 0 5.48 0.304 1.50 51 1 69% 69% 87.75
Swing in' 60's /I Need. A Nap Fatigue 50.08 304.00 1752 5789 1 34 0 502 457 616 85 107 197 3 13.53 0.396 2.67 51 42 43% 32% 113.51
I m So Tired Fatigue 78.73 302.00 1337 4414 9 15 3 164 154 368 31 174 73 1 4.59 0.291 1.46 63 4 68% 64% 70.06
70% Of the Time, We Pitch Every Time. Fatigue 74.09 297.33 1383 4519 10 17 0 211 179 403 31 162 66 2 5.42 0.306 1.58 55 7 66% 56% 82.16
TWISL - Fatigue Team Fatigue 73.37 295.33 1325 4407 16 19 1 190 169 373 48 189 64 1 5.15 0.296 1.48 51 6 67% 59% 86.41
Chicks dig the long ball Fatigue 48.09 267.00 1568 5316 3 37 0 478 440 607 102 100 173 2 14.83 0.435 2.92 43 36 40% 32% 123.63
Sub-Total 69.30 2395.99 11526 38070 87 180 9 2105 1902 3522 398 1252 781 13 7.14 0.329 1.80 445 142 52% 32% 85.55
LIFO Control Control 93.55 280.67 1204 4063 17 15 0 119 109 302 20 210 63 2 3.50 0.265 1.30 42 34 92% 90% 96.74
TWISL - Control Team Control 96.44 271.00 1191 3948 17 13 0 152 139 319 15 206 53 0 4.62 0.280 1.37 41 33 96% 92% 96.29
Control vs. Kaos Control 99.47 269.67 1130 3810 21 7 0 101 88 259 19 213 48 1 2.94 0.239 1.14 38 6 98% 97% 100.26
Controlled Fatigue Control 100.00 268.00 1133 3769 25 8 0 106 94 293 18 197 38 0 3.16 0.268 1.24 40 0 -- 100% 94.23
Well-rested Whompers Control 100.00 266.67 1137 3788 24 10 0 93 71 260 16 217 62 0 2.40 0.242 1.21 42 0 -- 100% 90.19
So Controlled Control 100.00 266.00 1074 3555 22 6 1 75 72 229 11 190 49 0 2.44 0.223 1.05 42 0 -- 100% 84.64
Control Switched On Control 100.00 261.00 1100 3683 22 9 0 98 88 273 12 229 39 0 3.03 0.257 1.20 41 0 -- 100% 89.83
Illusion of Control Control 99.33 258.67 1098 3776 21 11 0 123 114 274 12 213 51 0 3.97 0.262 1.26 43 4 97% 95% 87.81
Sub-Total 98.58 2141.68 9067 30392 169 79 1 867 775 2209 123 1675 403 3 3.26 0.256 1.22 329 77 94% 90% 92.38
Total 81.75 4537.67 20593 68462 256 259 10 2972 2677 5731 521 2927 1184 16 5.31 0.296 1.52 774 219 67% 32% 88.45
Real Life -- 233.67 933 3435 19 6 0 65 61 208 10 220 35 2 2.35 0.239 1.04 32 -- -- -- 107.34
Normalized # -- 257.00 1026 3779 19 6 0 71 67 242 9 171 39 2 2.36 0.243 1.07 32 -- -- -- 118.09
Average Fatigue 69.30 299.50 1441 4759 11 23 1 263 238 440 50 157 98 2 7.14 0.329 1.80 56 18 85.55
Average F%-2 74.69 304.17 1368 4494 14 18 2 188 168 383 35 174 69 1 4.96 0.296 1.48 59 11 76.82
Average Control 98.58 267.71 1133 3799 21 10 0 108 97 276 15 209 50 0 3.26 0.256 1.22 41 10 92.38
Average Overall 81.75 283.60 1287 4279 16 16 1 186 167 358 33 183 74 1 5.31 0.296 1.52 48 14 88.45
12/19/2020 6:06 PM (edited)
Combined Team type AVG % IP BFP PC W L SV R ER H HR SO BB WP ERA OAV WHIP
70% Of the Time, We Pitch Every Time. Fatigue 73.15 896.33 4033 13052 37 45 0 556 474 1121 98 455 182 9 4.76 0.294 1.45
Chicks dig the long ball Fatigue 49.90 825.00 4668 15612 8 104 0 1365 1269 1757 286 279 475 10 13.84 0.415 2.71
Control Switched On Control 100.00 759.67 3242 10693 52 33 1 357 323 832 57 543 125 5 3.83 0.267 1.26
Control vs. Kaos Control 99.65 801.00 3333 11104 58 25 0 339 297 791 70 578 116 3 3.34 0.248 1.13
Controlled Fatigue Control 99.83 817.33 3413 11156 65 30 0 336 296 865 53 526 100 7 3.26 0.261 1.18
Fatigue is Just a State of Mind Fatigue 68.18 923.34 4170 13539 44 59 12 637 557 1155 141 417 202 8 5.43 0.294 1.47
I m So Tired Fatigue 76.95 895.66 3964 12954 39 55 5 545 479 1108 128 470 178 3 4.81 0.292 1.44
Illusion of Control Control 99.19 777.67 3287 10916 64 29 0 380 342 846 62 551 112 4 3.96 0.266 1.23
LIFO Control Control 94.89 839.34 3539 11645 52 40 0 385 354 916 75 571 124 5 3.80 0.267 1.24
Running on Empty Fatigue 74.06 897.66 4001 12991 38 69 0 609 556 1154 136 475 156 4 5.57 0.300 1.46
So Controlled Control 99.98 765.00 3129 10308 61 20 1 297 254 694 54 508 122 4 2.99 0.232 1.07
Swing in' 60's/I Need. A Nap Fatigue 48.25 884.33 4995 16636 6 99 1 1453 1282 1756 265 265 561 5 13.05 0.398 2.62
Tested Fatigue Fatigue 76.18 921.00 3985 12882 49 57 0 500 448 1079 97 456 141 4 4.38 0.281 1.32
TWISL - Control Team Control 95.93 803.34 3497 11457 46 38 0 445 387 927 57 547 125 5 4.34 0.278 1.31
TWISL - Fatigue Team Fatigue 74.22 918.66 3960 12953 54 45 2 529 471 1041 132 487 158 2 4.61 0.274 1.31
Well-rested Whompers Control 100.00 789.00 3350 10962 65 27 0 344 255 813 43 542 119 1 2.91 0.256 1.18
Combined Team type AVG % IP BFP PC W L SV R ER H HR SO BB WP ERA OAV WHIP
Sub-Total Fatigue 67.61 7161.99 33776 110619 275 533 20 6194 5536 10171 1283 3304 2053 45 6.96 0.321 1.71
Sub-Total F%-3 73.79 4529.32 19943 64832 217 271 7 2739 2428 5503 591 2343 815 22 4.82 0.288 1.39
Sub-Total Control 98.68 6352.35 26790 88241 463 242 2 2883 2508 6684 471 4366 943 34 3.55 0.260 1.20
Total Overall 83.15 13514.34 60566 198860 738 775 22 9077 8044 16855 1754 7670 2996 79 5.36 0.294 1.47
Average RL -- 691.00 2754 9917 46 26 0 234 210 628 37 577 81 9 2.74 0.233 1.03
Average RL# -- 760.17 3029 10909 46 26 0 249 223 705 29 476 89 9 2.64 0.236 1.04
Average Fatigue 67.61 895.25 4222 13827 34 67 3 774 692 1271 160 413 257 6 6.96 0.321 1.71
Average F%-3 73.79 905.86 3989 12966 43 54 1 548 486 1101 118 469 163 4 4.82 0.288 1.39
Average Control 98.68 794.04 3349 11030 58 30 0 360 314 836 59 546 118 4 3.55 0.260 1.20
Average Overall 83.15 844.65 3785 12429 46 48 1 567 503 1053 110 479 187 5 5.36 0.294 1.47
8.5.5
12/19/2020 6:06 PM (edited)
Combined Advanced Team type G G<70/99% AVG G<70% LOW % AVG PC Starter % Pithers/G Defensive XO XO/Opp OAV-+ %>RL# OAV %>RL# OAV-+ %>RL# BB/9 %>RL# HR/9
70% Of the Time, We Pitch Every Time. Fatigue 162 31 66% 56% 80.57 50.3% 4.72 73 1.07% 0.320 25% 35% 73% 187%
Chicks dig the long ball Fatigue 135 113 43% 32% 115.64 89.2% 3.85 32 0.43% 0.401 76% 70% 392% 809%
Control Switched On Control 127 0 -- 100% 84.20 67.7% 4.40 -30 -0.47% 0.297 13% 26% 41% 97%
Control vs. Kaos Control 114 9 98% 97% 97.40 78.6% 2.91 119 1.94% 0.280 5% 18% 24% 129%
Controlled Fatigue Control 120 6 97% 96% 92.97 72.0% 3.19 103 1.62% 0.282 10% 19% 5% 70%
Fatigue is Just a State of Mind Fatigue 228 159 64% 46% 59.38 47.2% 5.22 219 3.40% 0.342 25% 45% 87% 300%
I m So Tired Fatigue 189 24 65% 54% 68.54 51.7% 3.97 69 1.03% 0.299 24% 26% 70% 275%
Illusion of Control Control 127 8 91% 78% 85.95 63.8% 4.08 14 0.22% 0.261 13% 11% 23% 109%
LIFO Control Control 120 93 93% 90% 97.04 77.0% 3.18 6 0.09% 0.255 13% 8% 26% 134%
Running on Empty Fatigue 150 12 68% 65% 86.61 66.1% 3.78 118 1.78% 0.309 27% 31% 48% 297%
So Controlled Control 125 1 97% 97% 82.46 67.3% 4.01 122 1.98% 0.267 -2% 13% 36% 85%
Swing in' 60's/I Need. A Nap Fatigue 164 139 42% 24% 101.44 61.2% 3.40 139 1.85% 0.412 69% 74% 442% 685%
Tested Fatigue Fatigue 160 6 69% 67% 80.51 62.0% 3.87 182 2.76% 0.309 19% 31% 31% 176%
TWISL - Control Team Control 120 86 95% 90% 95.48 76.1% 3.51 -38 -0.59% 0.281 18% 19% 33% 86%
TWISL - Fatigue Team Fatigue 157 9 67% 59% 82.50 66.1% 4.12 136 2.14% 0.305 16% 29% 47% 277%
Well-rested Whompers Control 121 0 -- 100% 90.60 72.5% 3.54 -6 -0.10% 0.283 8% 20% 29% 43%
Combined Advanced Team type G G<70/99% AVG G<70% LOW % AVG PC Defensive XO XO/Opp
Sub-Total Fatigue 1345 493 56% 24% 82.24 59.8% 4.12 967 1.81% 0.339 36% 44% 145% 370%
Sub-Total F%-3 818 82 65% 24% 79.26 58.4% 4.09 577 1.76% 0.308 22% 30% 54% 242%
Sub-Total Control 974 203 94% 78% 90.60 71.7% 3.60 291 0.59% 0.269 10% 14% 27% 94%
Total Overall 2319 696 67% 24% 85.75 60.3% 3.86 1258 1.20% 0.308 24% 30% 89% 240%
Average RL 95 -- -- -- 104.39 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
Average RL# 95 -- -- -- 114.83 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
Average Fatigue 168 62 56% 50% 82.24 59.8% 4.12 121 1.81% 0.339 36% 44% 145% 370%
Average F%-3 164 16 65% 58% 79.26 58.4% 4.09 115 1.76% 0.308 22% 30% 54% 242%
Average Control 122 25 94% 94% 90.60 71.7% 3.60 36 0.59% 0.269 10% 14% 27% 94%
Average Overall 145 44 67% 72% 85.75 60.3% 3.86 79 1.20% 0.308 24% 30% 89% 240%
8.5.5
12/19/2020 6:32 PM (edited)
Couple of notes on the above:

When I first started compiling the data there were two teams that clearly had spiraled out of control fatigue-wise and skewed the overall numbers significantly. So you'll notice on the individual pitchers sections I have a sub-total for the fatigue teams that does not include those two teams labeled "F%-2". you'll notice that for the section that combines all three pitchers together that sub-total is now called "F%-3" because as I dug into the data it became clear that there was in fact a third team that had spiraled into out of control. So I also removed them from them from this data. It was harder to pick up on the individual pitcher sections because of the more limited data, though it did still stand out as an outlier for reasons I'll get into in the next post.

The made up metrics to the right of each pitchers data are the number of games that pitcher pitched below the defined thresholds of 70% and 99%. That column is labeled "G<70/99%". For those specific games below the threshold, the average fatigue % is displayed in the column labeled "AVG G<70/99%". Then the lowest fatigue level that pitcher appeared in a game at is in the column labeled "Low %". Next we have the more straightforward "AVG PC" which is how many pitches that pitcher threw per game - and I highlighted in red the few cases where in-game fatigue played a role.

For the remaining columns, here is a short legend/key:
Starter % - Percentage of pitches thrown per game by starters
Pitchers/Game - Number of pitchers to appear per team game
Defensive XO - Net outs added by defensive (includes errors, +/- plays, CS, and double plays)
XO/OPP - Extra outs added by defense per opportunity
OAV-+ - OAV with + plays removed
%>RL# OAV - The increase to OAV over the RL# OAV for these pitchers.
%>RL# OAV-+ - The increase to OAV with + plays removed over RL# for these pitchers.
%>RL# BB/9 - The increase to BB/9 over the RL# for these pitchers.
%>RL# HR/9 - The increase to HR/9 over the RL# for these pitchers.

I included the RL, RL#, and love having the control group as ways to compare performance relative to each other, as well as at this particular cap level. At this cap ($85m) we weren't so far removed from realistic in that we still had a team have their starters cumulatively exceed their RL and RL# stats. However, we were far enough removed, that the average control team was roughly 10% worse on OAV, 27% worse on BB/9, and 94% worse on HR/9 than these same pitchers RL#. Comparatively, relative to the control teams the best fatigue team was within the range of the control teams (16%,47%,277%), but as a group (F%-3) the fatigue teams were 12% worse than control on OAV, 27% worse on BB/9 and 148% worse on HR/9. You can see this to an extent on the fatigue groups in the post above to gauge the linear effect of fatigue on these three stats, and as I'll touch on more below, understand how these can be controlled with defense, ballpark, and managerial settings).
12/19/2020 9:25 PM (edited)
League Question 1: If defense is as valuable as postulated, why with the league's best defense did "Fatigue is Just a State of Mind" not do better?
In short, defense saved this team from a complete and total out of control death spiral. This is the third team excluded from the combined stats above because it was severely fatigued and so much so that it was skewing the average fatigue numbers so far offline. The quality of the defense not only masked the level of fatigue, but also kept this team's overall pitching performing at enough of a level to allow the offense to keep scoring and the the team winning. The question shouldn't so much be, why wasn't this team better from a stats standpoint, but amazement at how competitive this teams defense allowed them to be despite the severe level of fatigue they faced. The three starters on this team played 159 games with their fatigue below 70% and pitched to a low of 46% fatigue. The fact that they managed to win 87 games and these starters still put up a pitching slash of 5.43/.294/1.47 with that much fatigue is a solid testament to how successful fatigue teams can be if built well. Without the + plays, that OAV goes all the way up to a .342 and the pitchers would've spiraled even more from all those extra pitches needed to make up those outs.



League Question 2: Bullpen Management
What I didn't understand during the league about the team above, but I do now, is essentially what drove them to be so fatigued? For the team above, it was the only case of appearance fatigue as a factor. This team averaged 5.22 pitcher/game and was one of only two above 4.5. With the number of pitchers we had and the number of pitchers with SP-like IP/G, use-management became a factor, as well. These starters weren't able to recover between appearances because they were getting into too many games. There were only two pitcher that finished the season with appearances in more than 70% of team games, and one was from this team. However, almost every pitcher on this team appeared in enough games to trigger the appearance fatigue projection and fatigue level from recovering. If they'd pitched less games they would have seen their recovery look more like 59(73) as opposed to 59(62). This contributed to the inability to recover back over 70%. The starter share of pitches was also a league low 47.2%.

A couple of other fatigue teams dealt with bullpen management issues. One (70% of the Time...) was the other team to have a pitcher appear in more than 70% of team games and who had the second lowest share of pitches by the starters at 50.3%, but was the one that publicly acknowledged they were making sure their starters stayed above 70% to provide valuable data and letting their bullpen take the brunt of fatigue. Their starters slashed 4.76/.294/1.45 and yet their overall slash was 7.64/.332/1.85. Which goes to show how painful their late innings must've been to watch.

Another that appeared to also deal with bullpen issues was Tested Fatigue, whose starters alone were almost identical to the one fatigue team that was unarguably successful (TWISL - Fatigue), but their overall slash was 25-50% worse. Tested Fatigue also so it's starters share of pitches among the lowest in the league.

On the flip side, the two teams that spiraled had the highest share of starter pitches and they were the only two teams that dealt with in-game fatigue, often having their starters throw beyond their allotted pitches per game, which only served to increase the rate of fatigue these pitchers encountered.

With fatigue teams, managing work load across the three fatigue types is also crucial to success, as you can see from the results of the teams that treaded into appearance or in-game fatigue on top of their pitch-based fatigue.
12/19/2020 8:05 PM (edited)
Observations (not already made above):
  • Two Cliff Lee with least IP combined for 81 G, 476 IP, .271 OAV, 1.2457 WHIP, and 4.56 RA/9. Two Cliff Lee with most IP combined for 104 G, 581.67 IP, .272 OAV, 1.2464 WHIP, and 4.75 RA/9. Average fatigue of two with least IP was 100%, while average fatigue of two with most was 74%. That's 23 extra games and 105 extra IP with no real drop in performance.
  • The three sets of teams run by a single owner were each nearly identical on offense despite each fatigue version having a top 3 defense and two control versions having a bottom 3 defense and the third a league average defense. The TWISL Fatigue team was also almost identical to the TWISL Control team on pitching, thanks to that extra defense.
  • The 85-89% bucket, though the smallest sample, isn't necessarily an aberration, the better stats there over the 90-94% bucket could be explained by defense in that sample since these buckets aren't controlled by defense or matchups, etc...
12/19/2020 8:23 PM (edited)
There are multiple ways to define success from the fatigue teams here:

First, is by W/L record, of which only two of the fatigue teams managed better than .500. However, a team's run scoring capabilities has as much to do with winning as their run prevention, and there were a few fatigue teams that performed well enough on the prevention side to have won more games, but didn't score enough to to turn that performance into a winning record.

Second, is by the overall pitching performance relative to expectations (either RL, RL#, the control teams, or some other standard). By this measure, only one fatigue team appears to have succeeded with this test.

Third, is how just the starting pitchers performed relative to expectations (either RL, RL#, the control teams, or some other standard) given that at least one team let their bullpen go to make sure their starters continued to provide useful data (and from the data, intentional or not, at least two other fatigue teams bullpen was their weakness that kept them from winning more games). Again, by this measure, only 1-4 fatigue teams appear to have succeeded with this test (and that depends on your standard above).

Given that, depending on how you define success in for a fatigue team here, at best half the teams were successful and at worst, only one was.

That said, there is a clear importance in building a fatigue team with the first goal of winning games in mind to be successful, and that includes building a team that can score enough runs, have a defense oriented to overcoming the effects of fatigue as your pitchers tire, and drafting the right kind of pitchers to begin with. Your ballpark selection also goes a long way towards helping your team.

With 1,100 total innings and WIS Park, the pitchers were the right type, low-mid OAV, low BB, low HR pitchers. Most fatigue teams put their team in front of better than average defenses as can be seen by the 121 net extra outs from the fatigue teams as opposed to the net 36 extra outs from the control teams.

12/19/2020 8:06 PM (edited)
I think it is still quite clear, despite, a lack of overall "success" depending on how you're defining it from above, that fatigue teams can be used successfully (using the same definition). There is definitely a balance that must be obtained between the different types of fatigue, a defense that helps control for hits (+ plays and lack of - minus plays) and helps minimize run scoring opportunities (CS, few errors, DPs, etc), a ballpark that also helps control for hits (-1B) and HR (-HR). However, if you can do the above, you can win because your pitching will be at the top of the league with average offense, or you'll have average pitching with an offense near the top of the league.

I'd love to do this test again, but with the owners now all having a better understanding of the inter-play at work.

(similar to the last fatigue thread, I'll post a link to a google sheet here early next week)
12/19/2020 8:24 PM (edited)
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