Posted by laramiebob on 1/6/2021 11:22:00 AM (view original):
It's true that the Party that we KNEW as the Republican Party is no more. A great reckoning is coming for those folks and a huge re-alignment is likely. Don't know how it will all shake out but my guess is that two new Parties will emerge and one will still use the Rep. label. One of the two "factions' will be the newer "converts" (TP-ers and Trumpets/anti Fed group including KKK types and associated malcontents), the more radical tear it all down folks because the good 'ol US of A is no more/has been stolen by THEM and we need to reclaim it and clean it up bunch.
The "other" faction will be the moderate Conservative types like Kasich, Flake, Romney, Bush's, etc.
FWIW, I also think a great shakeup is coming for the Dems as well. Probably AFTER the Republican internal battle.
No Party can hold together folks as disparate in belief as the farthest left wing of the Dems. (AOC, etc) and also retain more moderate (even fiscally conservative libs like me) traditional heartland Dems who are (generally) the swing votes in the Country. Going back clear to Truman's surprise victory it's this "silent majority" voter who decides our elections I think. The conservative DEMS and the moderate/liberal REPUBS.
By 2028 (I may not be around to find out) I suspect we'll have 4 Party's.
Maybe that's a good thing!
I don't think this is right. It just doesn't make sense given the realities of our presidential election system. Direct election of the POTUS (ok, maybe not direct, but it's not a PM situation) with the requirement for a majority, rather than a plurality, really only lends itself to a two-party system. At most you could see a party splinter for one presidential election cycle. After they get crushed - as the Democrats did in 1860 in spite of combining to absolutely dominate Lincoln in the popular vote - they'd find enough common ground to come back together before the following midterm. There's very little chance of your 4-party vision of the future. Every presidential election would be thrown to the house in that scenario. We'd effectively lose direct election of the POTUS. People would absolutely find a way to consolidate around the preferred candidates.
I think it's likely we're going to see some significant shifts in party ideologies and geographic bases in the coming decade. The expansion of urban populations in the Sun Belt - evidenced in Georgia, shrinking Republican margins in Texas, etc. - are going to force the Republicans to find a way to appeal to some new groups. The short-term dominance is going to move Democrats left. I suspect that that's going to push much of the Rust Belt into the Republican party. I wouldn't be surprised if PA, OH, MI, and WI are solid red states by the 2028 election. I wouldn't be surprised if Georgia and the Carolinas are solid blue and Texas is a true swing state. Ideologically I expect the Dems to be more progressive by then and the Republicans to be more socially liberal and more fiscally conservative - a mix that will appeal to those Rust Belters they so desperately need.
But 4 parties? I can't see that. Not under the Constitution we have now.