Posted by dBKC on 3/16/2021 10:24:00 AM (view original):
Gerry has such an affinity for white guys that can shoot that he’ll probably draft Benhoidal in the 11th.

You could do worse in the 11th. I’ve done worse in the 11th

I feel really good about where the team is at. Sure, there are lots of ways it can be better and I am not even sure it is good. But I feel like there are no holes big enough in the boat to cause it to sink. I feel like I can go BPA mostly for the rest of the draft.

Posted by 24kpyrite on 3/16/2021 10:27:00 AM (view original):

It's business
It's business time
You know when I'm down to my socks
It's time for business that's why they call it business socks, ooh

I've been meaning to share a number of random thoughts, not quite an eval. I'll keep adding to it

• Are we sure LeBron should be the #1 pick? Here's my case:
  • If there was a player out there who had ~ 900 minutes for 5 seasons with creb of high 30'3, eFG 55%-68%, FC assists 11% - 18%, Def mostly in the 80's, where would he be drafted?
  • Answer: maybe 4th round, probably 5th
  • With Wilt's minutes so high you're drafting a starting Center AND the best back up in the league
  • So by taking Wilt 1 over LeBron you get two positions, a top of the 1st round talent and a 4th/5th round awesome back up.
  • I just think that's more valuable than anyone

happy to see we have some fotc fans here....murray was definitely my favorite

Posted by jcred5 on 3/16/2021 12:46:00 PM (view original):
I've been meaning to share a number of random thoughts, not quite an eval. I'll keep adding to it

• Are we sure LeBron should be the #1 pick? Here's my case:
  • If there was a player out there who had ~ 900 minutes for 5 seasons with creb of high 30'3, eFG 55%-68%, FC assists 11% - 18%, Def mostly in the 80's, where would he be drafted?
  • Answer: maybe 4th round, probably 5th
  • With Wilt's minutes so high you're drafting a starting Center AND the best back up in the league
  • So by taking Wilt 1 over LeBron you get two positions, a top of the 1st round talent and a 4th/5th round awesome back up.
  • I just think that's more valuable than anyone

thats an interesting point...no denying the value in wilts heavy mins...but i think what lebron does at the guard position, with higher and more consistent usg, is even more valuable

Posted by dh555 on 3/16/2021 12:46:00 PM (view original):



happy to see we have some fotc fans here....murray was definitely my favorite

Murray was by far my favorite too.

Posted by jhsukow on 3/16/2021 10:32:00 AM (view original):

Posted by dBKC on 3/16/2021 10:24:00 AM (view original):
Gerry has such an affinity for white guys that can shoot that he’ll probably draft Benhoidal in the 11th.

You could do worse in the 11th. I’ve done worse in the 11th

LOL

Posted by jcred5 on 3/16/2021 12:46:00 PM (view original):
I've been meaning to share a number of random thoughts, not quite an eval. I'll keep adding to it

• Are we sure LeBron should be the #1 pick? Here's my case:
  • If there was a player out there who had ~ 900 minutes for 5 seasons with creb of high 30'3, eFG 55%-68%, FC assists 11% - 18%, Def mostly in the 80's, where would he be drafted?
  • Answer: maybe 4th round, probably 5th
  • With Wilt's minutes so high you're drafting a starting Center AND the best back up in the league
  • So by taking Wilt 1 over LeBron you get two positions, a top of the 1st round talent and a 4th/5th round awesome back up.
  • I just think that's more valuable than anyone

I see what you’re saying and I was there for a while, but currently I don’t even have Wilt as the sure fire #2 (I put my money where my mouth was on that one too).

Small sample size, but through 2 savage seasons (10 regular seasons), LeBron teams average 45 wins per season and have zero championships. Wilt teams average 41 wins per season and have zero championships. Steph teams average 47.6 wins per season and have 1 championship. Shaq averages 45.7 wins per season and has 3 championships (Shaq had 5 more chances than the other 3 though).

I have LeBron as the clear cut #1 and I personally have Steph #2 but I know I’m in the minority there.

I feel like Kemp or Whiteside in the late 2nd is closer to Wilt’s production than someone like Paul George or Steve Nash would be to Bron/Steph’s. I think you get a better final team getting the elite guards early. That’s just my opinion though.

The 3 crown winners’ 1sts have been Shaq, KG, and David Robinson, so clearly there’s value to getting an elite big in the first and that anecdote is a point against my argument I guess. However, I came in 2nd with Harden, and with Steph, and JKaye came in 2nd with Stockton, so elite guard play is important too.

Avg points by first round pick:

Row Labels	Avg ADP	Avg Wins	Sum of Titles	Avg Points
O'Neal, Shaquille	4	46	3	304
Harden, James	13	46	1	294
Paul, Chris	8	44	1	293
Curry, Stephen	3	48	1	291
Olajuwon, Hakeem	22	44	2	288
Garnett, Kevin	15	44	1	279
James, LeBron	1	45	0	275
Erving, Julius	22	44	2	275
Robinson, David	12	42	1	272
Jordan, DeAndre	21	44	1	271
Abdul-Jabbar, Kareem	4	41	0	252
Bird, Larry	14	42	1	246
Davis, Anthony	23	43	0	244
Howard, Dwight	6	43	0	242
Antetokounmpo, Giannis	14	42	0	238
Barkley, Charles	10	41	0	237
Gilmore, Artis	19	41	0	233
Pippen, Scottie	23	40	1	228
Chamberlain, Wilt	2	41	0	227
Jordan, Michael	5	41	0	223
Durant, Kevin	11	39	0	220
Stockton, John	16	36	1	214
Rodman, Dennis	24	36	1	212
Malone, Karl	7	39	0	208
Johnson, Magic	19	38	0	204
Malone, Moses	20	37	0	196
Duncan, Tim	20	35	0	185

(above is ADP 24 or less)

Duncan is about to get a fat Kinoa bump though, tbf

Thanks for providing data, Rob

eh. with the specificity of each build and the number of seasons on file, I think average wins is just a reflection of each owner's choices rather than the strengths of Wilt or LeBron.

having had LeBron, he's certainly an amazing building block to have, but I think drafting in the top part of the order presents its own challenges. for example, what are you going to do at center for five seasons if you take LeBron or Steph? take a defender later who fouls a lot, or get usage (Ewing for example) and D early? how many picks do you want to invest in that, and how many turnovers can you take at that position before you're making life unnecessarily difficult on Bron?

I chose a bunch of low usage, high defense, good eFG% guys to go with Bron, and were I to do it all over again, I might have gotten even more aggressive in finding rebounds. Not sure I'd take Ewing again but I would address the center position within the first seven rounds.

With Steph, I would mimic dB's strategy and grab guys like Simmons and Kemp. Finding unique two way guys who rebound, pass, and defend for Steph make him that much more likely to succeed.

Wilt is an interesting build indeed. I'd go for 67, 68, and 69 immediately, followed by 72 and either 73 or 66. In the ODL, what I've seen is that if you can get any sort of perimeter defenders who can shoot a little bit, you can compete for the title. In this league, I think I could just take Kobe in the 2nd and mail in the next ten picks.

To me it all comes down to who makes life easiest. I think that's Wilt, followed by LeBron and Steph. but that is just my useless opinion - one should not feel required to start an argument over it

bonus points if you get two of them?