Posted by bds9992 on 3/16/2021 10:53:00 PM (view original):

Posted by robusk on 3/16/2021 10:37:00 PM (view original):

Posted by bds9992 on 3/16/2021 10:05:00 PM (view original):
I too understand where you're coming from. I'm a little confused because I can't think of any point guards who would ever be acceptable with Bill Russell's eFG% and average defense at their position, let alone in the early rounds, but we can't go through everyone right now.

I think you are trying to make an interesting point here and I am willing to go through the rabbit hole with you. But I can’t figure out what the point is. Can you restate?

I will try.

We make greater concessions for rebounders than we do for passers or two way players. While there may be serviceable big men and point guards available late in drafts, even second and third round centers come with flaws we would not accept at any other position were it not for their rebounding and defense. There is a sharper fall off in quality for big men than there is for perimeter players. If I were to plot eFG%, Def, Ast%, FP48, TO%, and Usg% for point guard-eligible and center-eligible players over the first five rounds of any draft, there would be a much sharper dropoff in those qualities for center-eligible players than there would be for point guard-eligible players.

Well, using ast% and not rebounding % in that hypothetical plot seems to tilt the scales a little unfairly towards big men. Is 5% assist for a big man really a bigger flaw than a crb around 10% for a PG?

And again, I would distinguish between "Point guards" specifically and other perimeter players. I think wings in this league are generally a dime a dozen, after the elite options. You can find all sorts of useful wings in the mid to late rounds. Not nearly as much the case with PGs, which are much scarcer (particularly if you can't afford terrible D).

Posted by tarheel1991 on 3/16/2021 11:15:00 PM (view original):

Posted by bds9992 on 3/16/2021 10:53:00 PM (view original):

Posted by robusk on 3/16/2021 10:37:00 PM (view original):

Posted by bds9992 on 3/16/2021 10:05:00 PM (view original):
I too understand where you're coming from. I'm a little confused because I can't think of any point guards who would ever be acceptable with Bill Russell's eFG% and average defense at their position, let alone in the early rounds, but we can't go through everyone right now.

I think you are trying to make an interesting point here and I am willing to go through the rabbit hole with you. But I can’t figure out what the point is. Can you restate?

I will try.

We make greater concessions for rebounders than we do for passers or two way players. While there may be serviceable big men and point guards available late in drafts, even second and third round centers come with flaws we would not accept at any other position were it not for their rebounding and defense. There is a sharper fall off in quality for big men than there is for perimeter players. If I were to plot eFG%, Def, Ast%, FP48, TO%, and Usg% for point guard-eligible and center-eligible players over the first five rounds of any draft, there would be a much sharper dropoff in those qualities for center-eligible players than there would be for point guard-eligible players.

Well, using ast% and not rebounding % in that hypothetical plot seems to tilt the scales a little unfairly towards big men. Is 5% assist for a big man really a bigger flaw than a crb around 10% for a PG?

And again, I would distinguish between "Point guards" specifically and other perimeter players. I think wings in this league are generally a dime a dozen, after the elite options. You can find all sorts of useful wings in the mid to late rounds. Not nearly as much the case with PGs, which are much scarcer (particularly if you can't afford terrible D).

One day you are going to post something I am going to disagree with and I am going to be really f'ing delighted.

Posted by bds9992 on 3/16/2021 10:05:00 PM (view original):
I too understand where you're coming from. I'm a little confused because I can't think of any point guards who would ever be acceptable with Bill Russell's eFG% and average defense at their position, let alone in the early rounds, but we can't go through everyone right now.

I take your point about Russell, though personally I would not take him in the first two rounds of this league anyway, for exactly the reason you suggest (efg%). But as a counterpoint, Wes Unseld just went in the 6th round. Is there a similarly valuable PG who was available even into the 5th? Unseld has 5+ seasons of 2800+ minutes of good to great rebounding and solid assists without significant flaws other than meh defense.

But really I think the answer to your question is that PG's who bring the total package of Russell with only efg% as a glaring flaw (albeit in a low-usage package) don't really exist. Who is the PG with elite stats for his position across the board, but a sub-45% efg? That player archetype doesn't really exist. But if there was a hypothetical low-usage PG who brought elite assists, plus rebounding for his position, 70+ defense, and plenty of minutes without any flaws other than efg%, you can bet that guy would get drafted in the first 2-3 rounds. Kidd is the closest thing to that (obviously two of his good seasons have very solid efg%), and he goes in the middle of the second round.

Posted by tarheel1991 on 3/16/2021 11:24:00 PM (view original):

Posted by bds9992 on 3/16/2021 10:05:00 PM (view original):
I too understand where you're coming from. I'm a little confused because I can't think of any point guards who would ever be acceptable with Bill Russell's eFG% and average defense at their position, let alone in the early rounds, but we can't go through everyone right now.

I take your point about Russell, though personally I would not take him in the first two rounds of this league anyway, for exactly the reason you suggest (efg%). But as a counterpoint, Wes Unseld just went in the 6th round. Is there a similarly valuable PG who was available even into the 5th? Unseld has 5+ seasons of 2800+ minutes of good to great rebounding and solid assists without significant flaws other than meh defense.

But really I think the answer to your question is that PG's who bring the total package of Russell with only efg% as a glaring flaw (albeit in a low-usage package) don't really exist. Who is the PG with elite stats for his position across the board, but a sub-45% efg? That player archetype doesn't really exist. But if there was a hypothetical low-usage PG who brought elite assists, plus rebounding for his position, 70+ defense, and plenty of minutes without any flaws other than efg%, you can bet that guy would get drafted in the first 2-3 rounds. Kidd is the closest thing to that (obviously two of his good seasons have very solid efg%), and he goes in the middle of the second round.

Russ?

ah low usage

Yeah I mean that's the issue right - no one would tolerate Bill Russell having such terrible efg% if he didn't have such low usage.

Exactly. It is what separates Kidd from Westbrook and Russell from ********.

Posted by tarheel1991 on 3/16/2021 11:30:00 PM (view original):
Yeah I mean that's the issue right - no one would tolerate Bill Russell having such terrible efg% if he didn't have such low usage.

I think the Kidd thing is spot on.

I learned a lot about Bill the Savage player in S2. (I will be using two new seasons this go around and they might surprise you) I loved my Jason Kidd experience in S3.

I don’t take this as me being on trial, but rather an expert witness.

low usage allows to get away with the flaw.

Posted by robusk on 3/16/2021 11:34:00 PM (view original):
Exactly. It is what separates Kidd from Westbrook and Russell from ********.

You can go ahead and say Bob Pettit, I don't think anyone is drafting him

But also Russ rebounds almost as good as Russell in those top 3 RB seasons.

Posted by NotoriousJ on 3/16/2021 11:39:00 PM (view original):
But also Russ rebounds almost as good as Russell in those top 3 RB seasons.

I had him too!


_{...Wait, am I on trial?}

Selection	Pick	Coach	+/- ADP	Round
James, LeBron	1	cmcafeeky	0.0	Round 1
Chamberlain, Wilt	2	jhsukow	0.0	Round 1
Curry, Stephen	3	jkaye24	0.0	Round 1
O'Neal, Shaquille	4	tarheel1991	-0.3	Round 1
Howard, Dwight	5	robusk	-1.3	Round 1
Jordan, Michael	6	pexetera	1.3	Round 1
Antetokounmpo, Giannis	7	dbkc	-7.0	Round 1
Paul, Chris	8	albiband0	0.0	Round 1
Abdul-Jabbar, Kareem	9	gerryred	5.0	Round 1
Robinson, David	10	jpevans31	-1.7	Round 1
Durant, Kevin	11	ysw128	0.0	Round 1
Malone, Karl	12	beloud	5.0	Round 1
Barkley, Charles	13	24kpyrite	2.7	Round 1
Harden, James	14	ashamael	0.7	Round 1
Garnett, Kevin	15	20ks	-0.3	Round 1
Bird, Larry	16	jcred5	2.3	Round 1
Davis, Anthony	17	mikee1	-6.0	Round 1
Gilmore, Artis	18	NotoriousJ	-1.0	Round 1
Jordan, DeAndre	19	bds9992	-1.7	Round 1
Duncan, Tim	20	kinoa1	-0.3	Round 1
Stockton, John	21	benhoidal	5.0	Round 1
Malone, Moses	22	amerk1180	2.3	Round 1
Johnson, Magic	23	Midge	4.3	Round 1
Olajuwon, Hakeem	24	dh555	2.3	Round 1
Wade, Dwyane	25	dh555	-6.7	Round 2
Gobert, Rudy	26	Midge	-7.3	Round 2
Pippen, Scottie	27	amerk1180	4.3	Round 2
Erving, Julius	28	benhoidal	5.7	Round 2
Leonard, Kawhi	29	kinoa1	-6.7	Round 2
McHale, Kevin	30	bds9992	0.0	Round 2
Rodman, Dennis	31	NotoriousJ	7.3	Round 2
Thompson, Klay	32	mikee1	3.7	Round 2
Payton, Gary	33	jcred5	0.3	Round 2
Nash, Steve	34	20ks	0.0	Round 2
Wallace, Ben	35	ashamael	-4.7	Round 2
Kidd, Jason	36	24kpyrite	2.3	Round 2
Robertson, Oscar	37	beloud	1.3	Round 2
Whiteside, Hassan	38	ysw128	-2.3	Round 2
Jokic, Nikola	39	jpevans31	-14.7	Round 2
Williams, Buck	40	gerryred	-11.0	Round 2
Mutombo, Dikembe	41	albiband0	4.7	Round 2
Kemp, Shawn	42	dbkc	0.7	Round 2
Drummond, Andre	43	pexetera	3.7	Round 2
Marion, Shawn	44	robusk	0.7	Round 2
Chandler, Tyson	45	tarheel1991	5.7	Round 2
Towns, Karl-Anthony	46	jkaye24	13.0	Round 2
Russell, Bill	47	jhsukow	-0.7	Round 2
Nance, Larry	48	cmcafeeky	-0.7	Round 2
Camby, Marcus	49	dh555	-0.3	Round 3
Allen, Ray	50	Midge	-7.7	Round 3
Ewing, Patrick	51	amerk1180	-7.3	Round 3
Green, Draymond	52	benhoidal	-9.3	Round 3
Jones, Bobby	53	kinoa1	-5.0	Round 3
George, Paul	54	bds9992	8.7	Round 3
Lillard, Damian	55	NotoriousJ	-25.3	Round 3
Frazier, Walt	56	mikee1	8.0	Round 3
Walton, Bill	57	jcred5	-2.3	Round 3
Brand, Elton	58	20ks	12.0	Round 3
Grant, Horace	59	ashamael	-7.3	Round 3
Billups, Chauncey	60	24kpyrite	7.3	Round 3
Ibaka, Serge	61	beloud	-3.7	Round 3
Mourning, Alonzo	62	ysw128	-1.7	Round 3
Ginobili, Manu	63	jpevans31	6.7	Round 3
Price, Mark	64	gerryred	-5.3	Round 3
Boozer, Carlos	65	albiband0	-32.3	Round 3
Simmons, Ben	66	dbkc	-3.0	Round 3
Capela, Clint	67	pexetera	-12.7	Round 3
Lowry, Kyle	68	robusk	3.3	Round 3
Blaylock, Mookie	69	tarheel1991	11.0	Round 3
Marshall, Donyell	70	jkaye24	-8.3	Round 3
Irving, Kyrie	71	jhsukow	2.0	Round 3
Parish, Robert	72	cmcafeeky	10.0	Round 3
Noah, Joakim	73	cmcafeeky	-2.3	Round 4
Bryant, Kobe	74	jhsukow	-0.3	Round 4
Gasol, Pau	75	jkaye24	0.0	Round 4
Holiday, Jrue	76	tarheel1991	-8.7	Round 4
Williams, Deron	77	robusk	-13.7	Round 4
Kirilenko, Andrei	78	pexetera	8.3	Round 4
Drexler, Clyde	79	dbkc	10.3	Round 4
Robertson, Alvin	80	albiband0	-17.3	Round 4
Rondo, Rajon	81	gerryred	-1.7	Round 4
Okafor, Emeka	82	jpevans31	-28.7	Round 4
Harper, Derek	83	ysw128	-12.7	Round 4
Lucas, Jerry	84	beloud	11.3	Round 4
Stoudemire, Amare	85	24kpyrite	5.7	Round 4
McAdoo, Bob	86	ashamael	-2.3	Round 4
Wallace, Gerald	87	20ks	3.7	Round 4
Rollins, Tree	88	jcred5	-39.7	Round 4
Johnson, Marques	89	mikee1	-8.7	Round 4
Vucevic, Nikola	90	NotoriousJ	-10.3	Round 4
Hardaway, Anfernee	91	bds9992	-2.0	Round 4
West, Jerry	92	kinoa1	-8.7	Round 4
Nowitzki, Dirk	93	benhoidal	-9.0	Round 4
Bledsoe, Eric	94	amerk1180	3.3	Round 4
Harrell, Montrezl	95	Midge	-26.7	Round 4
Butler, Jimmy	96	dh555	-14.3	Round 4
Brandon, Terrell	97	dh555	-31.0	Round 5
Cowens, Dave	98	Midge	-46.3	Round 5
Horford, Al	99	amerk1180	10.7	Round 5
Bogut, Andrew	100	benhoidal	-15.0	Round 5
Barry, Brent	101	kinoa1	21.0	Round 5
Pierce, Paul	102	bds9992	12.3	Round 5
Faried, Kenneth	103	NotoriousJ	-19.7	Round 5
Embiid, Joel	104	mikee1	-23.7	Round 5
Reed, Willis	105	jcred5	-3.0	Round 5
Cheeks, Maurice	106	20ks	24.7	Round 5
Davis, Dale	107	ashamael	9.3	Round 5
Lanier, Bob	108	24kpyrite	17.3	Round 5
Green, Danny	109	beloud	17.3	Round 5
Beal, Bradley	110	ysw128	-10.7	Round 5
Iguodala, Andre	111	jpevans31	23.0	Round 5
Valanciunas, Jonas	112	gerryred	-19.3	Round 5
Henson, John	113	albiband0	-35.3	Round 5
Porter, Terry	114	dbkc	28.7	Round 5
Calderon, Jose	115	pexetera	-3.7	Round 5
Moncrief, Sidney	116	robusk	20.3	Round 5
Conley, Mike	117	tarheel1991	-3.7	Round 5
Pressey, Paul	118	jkaye24	-15.0	Round 5
Millsap, Paul	119	jhsukow	0.7	Round 5
Love, Kevin	120	cmcafeeky	-37.3	Round 5
Walker, Kemba	121	cmcafeeky	-11.7	Round 6
Porter, Otto	122	jhsukow	-24.7	Round 6
Favors, Derrick	123	jkaye24	-12.3	Round 6
Mason, Anthony	124	tarheel1991	22.7	Round 6
Andersen, Chris	125	robusk	-10.0	Round 6
Kanter, Enes	126	pexetera	-12.0	Round 6
Bynum, Andrew	127	dbkc	12.0	Round 6
Roundfield, Dan	128	albiband0	-55.3	Round 6
Korver, Kyle	129	gerryred	21.3	Round 6
Green, A.C.	130	jpevans31	-46.3	Round 6
Johnson, Kevin	131	ysw128	-22.0	Round 6
Ward, Charlie	132	beloud	-6.0	Round 6
Silas, Paul	133	24kpyrite	21.3	Round 6
Carter, Vince	134	ashamael	-20.3	Round 6
Mullin, Chris	135	20ks	9.7	Round 6
McMillan, Nate	136	jcred5	9.0	Round 6
Oakley, Charles	137	mikee1	50.3	Round 6
Westbrook, Russell	138	NotoriousJ	-49.0	Round 6
Hawkins, Connie	139	bds9992	-135.0	Round 6
McGee, Javale	140	kinoa1	-17.0	Round 6
Boerwinkle, Tom	141	benhoidal	-13.7	Round 6
McGrady, Tracy	142	amerk1180	-43.3	Round 6
Adebayo, Bam	143	Midge	-15.0	Round 6
Outlaw, Bo	144	dh555	23.0	Round 6
Unseld, Wes	145	dh555	5.3	Round 7
Sabonis, Domantas	146	Midge	-54.3	Round 7
Ray, Clifford	147	amerk1180	-13.3	Round 7
Miller, Reggie	148	benhoidal	26.7	Round 7
Washington, Kermit	149	kinoa1	13.0	Round 7
Collins, John	150	bds9992	-57.3	Round 7
Barry, Jon	151	NotoriousJ	3.3	Round 7
Webber, Chris	152	mikee1	-0.3	Round 7
Batum, Nicolas	153	jcred5	-26.0	Round 7
Dalembert, Samuel	154	20ks	24.0	Round 7
Oladipo, Victor	155	ashamael	-7.0	Round 7
Smith, Josh	156	24kpyrite	-18.0	Round 7

20ks	Garnett, Kevin
	Nash, Steve
	Mullin, Chris
	Wallace, Gerald
	Brand, Elton
	Cheeks, Maurice
	Dalembert, Samuel
24kpyrite	Barkley, Charles
	Kidd, Jason
	Billups, Chauncey
	Stoudemire, Amare
	Lanier, Bob
	Smith, Josh
	Silas, Paul
albiband0	Paul, Chris
	Mutombo, Dikembe
	Robertson, Alvin
	Boozer, Carlos
	Roundfield, Dan
	Henson, John
amerk1180	Pippen, Scottie
	Malone, Moses
	McGrady, Tracy
	Ewing, Patrick
	Horford, Al
	Bledsoe, Eric
	Ray, Clifford
ashamael	Harden, James
	Wallace, Ben
	Davis, Dale
	Grant, Horace
	Carter, Vince
	McAdoo, Bob
	Oladipo, Victor
bds9992	Jordan, DeAndre
	George, Paul
	McHale, Kevin
	Hardaway, Anfernee
	Pierce, Paul
	Hawkins, Connie
	Collins, John
beloud	Malone, Karl
	Robertson, Oscar
	Lucas, Jerry
	Green, Danny
	Ibaka, Serge
	Ward, Charlie
benhoidal	Erving, Julius
	Stockton, John
	Miller, Reggie
	Green, Draymond
	Nowitzki, Dirk
	Bogut, Andrew
	Boerwinkle, Tom
cmcafeeky	James, LeBron
	Parish, Robert
	Nance, Larry
	Love, Kevin
	Walker, Kemba
	Noah, Joakim
dbkc	Antetokounmpo, Giannis
	Drexler, Clyde
	Kemp, Shawn
	Simmons, Ben
	Porter, Terry
	Bynum, Andrew
dh555	Wade, Dwyane
	Olajuwon, Hakeem
	Outlaw, Bo
	Unseld, Wes
	Camby, Marcus
	Butler, Jimmy
	Brandon, Terrell
gerryred	Abdul-Jabbar, Kareem
	Williams, Buck
	Rondo, Rajon
	Price, Mark
	Korver, Kyle
	Valanciunas, Jonas
jcred5	Bird, Larry
	Payton, Gary
	Walton, Bill
	McMillan, Nate
	Batum, Nicolas
	Reed, Willis
	Rollins, Tree
jhsukow	Chamberlain, Wilt
	Bryant, Kobe
	Irving, Kyrie
	Porter, Otto
	Millsap, Paul
	Russell, Bill
jkaye24	Curry, Stephen
	Towns, Karl-Anthony
	Gasol, Pau
	Pressey, Paul
	Favors, Derrick
	Marshall, Donyell
jpevans31	Robinson, David
	Iguodala, Andre
	Ginobili, Manu
	Jokic, Nikola
	Okafor, Emeka
	Green, A.C.
kinoa1	Duncan, Tim
	Leonard, Kawhi
	Jones, Bobby
	Barry, Brent
	West, Jerry
	McGee, JaVale
	Washington, Kermit
Midge	Johnson, Magic
	Gobert, Rudy
	Allen, Ray
	Cowens, Dave
	Harrell, Montrezl
	Sabonis, Domantas
	Adebayo, Bam
mikee1	Frazier, Walt
	Thompson, Klay
	Johnson, Marques
	Davis, Anthony
	Webber, Chris
	Oakley, Charles
	Embiid, Joel
NotoriousJ	Gilmore, Artis
	Rodman, Dennis
	Lillard, Damian
	Westbrook, Russell
	Faried, Kenneth
	Vucevic, Nikola
	Barry, Jon
pexetera	Jordan, Michael
	Drummond, Andre
	Capela, Clint
	Calderon, Jose
	Kirilenko, Andrei
	Kanter, Enes
robusk	Howard, Dwight
	Marion, Shawn
	Moncrief, Sidney
	Lowry, Kyle
	Williams, Deron
	Andersen, Chris
tarheel1991	O'Neal, Shaquille
	Chandler, Tyson
	Mason, Anthony
	Holiday, Jrue
	Blaylock, Mookie
	Conley, Mike
ysw128	Durant, Kevin
	Whiteside, Hassan
	Johnson, Kevin
	Beal, Bradley
	Mourning, Alonzo
	Harper, Derek

Posted by tarheel1991 on 3/16/2021 9:35:00 PM (view original):
So Unseld is just a Camby backup, right?

I needed more usage at SF, otherwise I might have considered Bo. It's tough to swing a 10-13% usage SF when you already have a board lord. But you have the usage to cover with Hakeem, Wade, etc. Still got work to do at PG/SG though, to improve on Butler and Brandon's meh seasons.

yup...ill have some usg behind hakeem

i never like having two .5 usg guys out there at the same time but im all in on defense with this squad...im hoping to improve the backcourt offense but it wont be so bad using some of those 47-49 efg% seasons of butler/brandon considering everything else they bring...miami jimmy will probably get some run as a backup

im predicting a lot of 110-100 games with this team...hopefully im the one with 110

Posted by dBKC on 3/16/2021 1:04:00 PM (view original):

Posted by jcred5 on 3/16/2021 12:46:00 PM (view original):
I've been meaning to share a number of random thoughts, not quite an eval. I'll keep adding to it

• Are we sure LeBron should be the #1 pick? Here's my case:
  • If there was a player out there who had ~ 900 minutes for 5 seasons with creb of high 30'3, eFG 55%-68%, FC assists 11% - 18%, Def mostly in the 80's, where would he be drafted?
  • Answer: maybe 4th round, probably 5th
  • With Wilt's minutes so high you're drafting a starting Center AND the best back up in the league
  • So by taking Wilt 1 over LeBron you get two positions, a top of the 1st round talent and a 4th/5th round awesome back up.
  • I just think that's more valuable than anyone

I see what you’re saying and I was there for a while, but currently I don’t even have Wilt as the sure fire #2 (I put my money where my mouth was on that one too).

Small sample size, but through 2 savage seasons (10 regular seasons), LeBron teams average 45 wins per season and have zero championships. Wilt teams average 41 wins per season and have zero championships. Steph teams average 47.6 wins per season and have 1 championship. Shaq averages 45.7 wins per season and has 3 championships (Shaq had 5 more chances than the other 3 though).

I have LeBron as the clear cut #1 and I personally have Steph #2 but I know I’m in the minority there.

I feel like Kemp or Whiteside in the late 2nd is closer to Wilt’s production than someone like Paul George or Steve Nash would be to Bron/Steph’s. I think you get a better final team getting the elite guards early. That’s just my opinion though.

The 3 crown winners’ 1sts have been Shaq, KG, and David Robinson, so clearly there’s value to getting an elite big in the first and that anecdote is a point against my argument I guess. However, I came in 2nd with Harden, and with Steph, and JKaye came in 2nd with Stockton, so elite guard play is important too.

That's a good point I didn't consider, the replacement value concept. The 1st round is filled with FC players many that do some of what Wilt does. The drop off from LeBron is bigger. It's why I would consider taking CP so high.