Posted by pexetera on 3/24/2021 9:34:00 PM (view original):
Ok, I've taken a look at the rosters and here are my predicted rankings for the final regular season standings. I'm only predicting regular season standing because the head-to-head matchups in the playoffs are difficult to model with confidence. I predicted the top 4 in order, but after that left some room for variation because I had to assume which seasons you were picking and how the squads are arranged. No apologies.

Owner Should Finish Between....

pexetera	1	and	1	1st Group 1-4
robusk	2	and	2
cmcafeeky	3	and	3
kinoa1	4	and	4
20ks	5	and	9	2nd Group 5-10
jkaye24	5	and	10
dbkc	6	and	8
ashamael	6	and	10
dh555	7	and	8
tarheel1991	7	and	9
ysw128	11	and	15	3rd Group
jpevans31	11	and	16
albiband0	12	and	14
jhsukow	12	and	16
notoriousj	13	and	14
gerryred	13	and	18	4th Group
bds9992	15	and	17
amerk1180	17	and	21
midge	18	and	21
24kpyrite	19	and	20
mikee1	19	and	24	5th Group
benhoidal	20	and	23
beloud	22	and	23
jcred5	22	and	24

I will bet you a team that Ben does not finish in the bottom 3

I was surprised at that result too, but the point system I use to evaluate players had him near the bottom. I suspect he'll organize his teams smartly and will outperform my point system. Anyone else have a ranking prediction or top 10?

just about done working on my teams...didnt like the look of the first build and had to change things up...ill have the league #s sent out tomorrow

@midge and @ashamael: both super funny posts. They both cracked me up.

@pexetera: Probably too high for me. I’ll be happy with top 5. You, kinoa and dBKC are hard to beat in this type of format typically.

@benhoidal: I think you can rest easy. I also did the assist heavy format last season and it went decent.

Posted by pexetera on 3/24/2021 9:36:00 PM (view original):
Ok, I've taken a look at the rosters and here are my predicted rankings for the final regular season standings. I'm only predicting regular season standing because the head-to-head matchups in the playoffs are difficult to model with confidence. I predicted the top 4 in order, but after that left some room for variation because I had to assume which seasons you were picking and how the squads are arranged. Just my best guesswork, but I feel pretty confident in top 10.

Owner Should Finish Between....

pexetera	1	and	1	1st Group 1-4
robusk	2	and	2
cmcafeeky	3	and	3
kinoa1	4	and	4
20ks	5	and	9	2nd Group 5-10
jkaye24	5	and	10
dbkc	6	and	8
ashamael	6	and	10
dh555	7	and	8
tarheel1991	7	and	9
ysw128	11	and	15	3rd Group
jpevans31	11	and	16
albiband0	12	and	14
jhsukow	12	and	16
notoriousj	13	and	14
gerryred	13	and	18	4th Group
bds9992	15	and	17
amerk1180	17	and	21
midge	18	and	21
24kpyrite	19	and	20
mikee1	19	and	24	5th Group
benhoidal	20	and	23
beloud	22	and	23
jcred5	22	and	24

Looks about right. We all know cmcafeeky's gonna blow it, though.

Posted by ashamael on 3/24/2021 8:23:00 PM (view original):
They say a picture's worth a thousand words, so I'll use pictures to explain myself.

1. James Harden

2. Ben Wallace



3. Horace Grant



4. Bob McAdoo



5. Dale Davis



6. Vince Carter

7. Victor Oladipo



8. Pat Beverley

This one requires sound

9. Fat Lever



10. Larry Nance, Jr.



11. Roy Tarpley

12. Hot Rod Williams


Overall conclusion:

I don't know how many champs your teams will win, but you're the self eval world champs!

i hate to admit it but that was great.

I should've done it that way. In fact, I will do it that way.

DeAndre Jordan


Kevin McHale


Paul George


Penny Hardaway


Paul Pierce


Connie Hawkins


John Collins


Jeff Teague


Walt Bellamy


Ervin Johnson


Shawn Bradley


Curtis Perry



Prediction

Posted by pexetera on 3/24/2021 9:56:00 PM (view original):
I was surprised at that result too, but the point system I use to evaluate players had him near the bottom. I suspect he'll organize his teams smartly and will outperform my point system. Anyone else have a ranking prediction or top 10?

I think it is great you are putting this out there. For your model, will your projections change once we see the rosters, but before we play the games?

I'm not going to revisit it again, but it certainly would change based on actual rosters. It's one of the reasons I gave ranges. I assumed owners would pick the 5 best seasons of each player, and that's not always going to happen.

I have several metrics I can go off here, but I am going to use them as context and rank off of feel more than anything here. Final standings, top 10, prediction:
1. kinoa1
2. dbkc
3. robusk
4. jkaye24
5. pexetera
6. dh555
7. ashamael
8. benhoidal
9. 24kpyrite
10. jhsukow

Just outside:
tarheel1991, jpevans31, gerryred

It's just one man's opinion. I just didn't want pex to be the only person putting himself out there. Whether or not you are listed above does not mean a damn thing.

If I can't finish top 10 with Shaq, shame on me. But not surprising given how I admittedly screwed up the draft. Gonna need to nail the team builds.

Posted by tarheel1991 on 3/25/2021 1:03:00 PM (view original):
If I can't finish top 10 with Shaq, shame on me. But not surprising given how I admittedly screwed up the draft. Gonna need to nail the team builds.

I originally had you at 9. But jhsukow has a way of exceeding my expectations and something about 24k’s squads made me want to take a flyer on him.

wow, no Lebron in top 10. Even bds took Lebron to a top 10 finish.

1. Always gonna bet on myself whether I should or not
2. dbkc - I’ve learned not to bet against him
3. Pex - ditto
4. kinoa - yup thought this is entirely on reputation & not the team
5. dh555 - really liked his first half of draft enough to consider him even higher, but I’m giving the former champs their due
6. Rob - he’ll probably be higher than this
7. Ben - he doesn’t do poorly two seasons in a row
8. cmcafeeky - he had a nice draft but will he manage it well enough?
9. Jkaye24 - could go anywhere from 3 to 13. Defense too sketchy for me to confidently pick higher though
10. Jp - I really liked a lot of the picks

first out: 24kpyrite, 20ks, tarheel