For myself, I don’t find it very helpful to think about effort credit in terms of a single unit of currency. There are just so many modifiers involved (preferences, prestige), and it’s all specific to your team, so it’s not really comparable across teams. I prefer to think in terms of impact. The difference is that I’m not getting concerned about the detail so much as I am about the strategic timing, and how much I’m moving the needle in the battle. Fulfilling a promise to a first year player is almost always going to hurt my team, in terms of this year’s performance. If I’m going to offer a promise, I want it to make a difference in the battle, for a player that will be a long term benefit for my program. The worst outcome, in my thinking, is to offer a promise and win a player in a situation where the promise didn’t make an impact in the battle; either it wasn’t necessary, or it didn’t really move the needle at all. That’s just my mental approach, your mileage will vary.
If I had give an answer to this specific question, I’d say probably around 3.5 or so. A bit more than a CV, I think.