oh my,.... the highest correlation to wins with 0.86 (very high) is number of teams in playoffs. so if you really want wins, just get the most number of teams in the playoffs.

Posted by bds9992 on 4/16/2021 8:10:00 PM (view original):
the recent collapse on my part not withstanding, pex, you've never been shy about getting lots of boards. in any league it's a mix of everything. some amount of inefficiency can be stomached in this league, but it likely has to be coupled with low usage, boards, assistst, volume 3s and/or defense. The Connie pick was a less offensive attempt on this front, but it hasn't totally worked out. Of course I immediately coupled him with Collins.

robusk (much as I hate to admit it) has always maintained that there isn't enough of a benefit of getting assists beyond the floor. The numbers seem to still agree with that philosophy. I have experienced a difference between 52 and 57, much as I've heard it's a step function, but no team I've had has experienced any notable jump in efficiency upwards of 65. I think it's because turnovers usually accompany assists, and a possession the forfeit of a possession. Rebounds with low turnovers, high boards and acceptable efficiency is always apt. (scorching hot take section: There are some guys (like Elgin or Westbrook) who can defy their inefficiency by making large contributions on rebounds for their positions, and high usage/low efficiency guys can be useful in this league with the right low usage/high efficiency guys around them and 3s. Just as a real usage whale like Harden can lift low usage defenders to a respectable offense, so too can a fake whale like Westbrook lift low usage defenders to a respectable rebounding margin, at the very least. Or DeMarcus Cousins, or someone like that. Embiid is the best of these, at least for now. anyway. It's kind of like a reverse Trojan horse, where the real players reveal the Trojan horse within, at least for as long as needed)

I did pretty decent with an assist build last season. I just think you have to go heavy or not at all. Above 80% seems like it has some benefit in this format if you can be site in one other category. But if I am not above 80, I may as well be at 50 IMO. There are only a small handful of players you can draft and make a successful assist heavy team here.

In low capped leagues though, I am a huge advocate for hit the floor and nothing else.

World	Team Name	Coach	Wins	Losses	TSDiff	eFGDiff	A/GDiff	RebDiff	TO%Diff	F/GDiff
4	Ghosts of Stonewall Jackson	kinoa1	20	6	5.10%	5.90%	1.8	-3.30%	-0.50%	-0.7
5	Cottonmouth	pexetera	20	6	2.60%	2.50%	1	15.80%	-0.80%	0.3
2	BLUE RAT	cmcafeeky	19	7	2.50%	3.60%	5	-2.40%	-1.00%	-2.3
2	Copperhead	pexetera	19	7	2.60%	2.70%	2.5	5.20%	-1.70%	-0.9
1	Peggy Made Brad Comatose	24kpyrite	19	7	3.60%	2.50%	2.9	-5.70%	-0.10%	-5.5
3	Eastern Tiger Snakes	amerk1180	19	7	0.90%	0.20%	0.4	11.30%	-1.30%	-2.3
5	D 5	dh555	19	7	2.30%	1.60%	2.3	7.10%	-1.40%	-3.2
1	Shaq Daddy	tarheel1991	18	8	2.50%	3.60%	2	0.70%	0.40%	-2
3	Boston	Midge	18	8	2.20%	1.60%	2.3	5.50%	-1.00%	-1.9
4	Peggy Does Colorado	24kpyrite	18	8	2.40%	2.10%	3.3	-0.20%	-0.80%	0.3
1	Dorothy Mantooth Saints	kinoa1	17	9	4.20%	4.40%	0.3	1.40%	1.10%	0.3
5	Peggy Abroad in Italy?	24kpyrite	17	9	4.90%	4.90%	4.8	-1.70%	2.90%	-2.7
4	Massaman	jkaye24	17	9	2.30%	2.50%	0.7	8.00%	1.50%	1.7
3	Merry F*ing Christmas	jcred5	17	9	1.70%	1.00%	2.9	1.70%	0.80%	-0.4
3	Old Old Wooden Ships	kinoa1	17	9	2.40%	3.10%	0.2	1.20%	-1.40%	0.3
3	About an Hour with Peggy (E)	mikee1	17	9	0.10%	0.60%	-1.7	4.40%	-3.00%	1.3
1	Ashland Strats	ashamael	17	9	-1.00%	0.00%	0.7	21.00%	-1.30%	0.3
5	Ashland Vs	ashamael	17	9	0.30%	0.50%	-1.8	0.60%	-3.10%	0
2	Da 2 Bloods	robusk	16	10	1.30%	2.60%	-4.5	-4.30%	-0.80%	1.1
5	Confirmed Convicts	20ks	16	10	1.30%	0.90%	2.5	4.00%	-0.20%	-1.6
2	About an Hour with Peggy (A)	mikee1	16	10	0.90%	0.30%	-4.5	2.50%	-0.40%	0.6
4	About an Hour with Peggy (D)	mikee1	16	10	0.20%	0.30%	-1.6	-0.30%	-1.80%	-1.5
4	Mozambique Spitting Cobras	amerk1180	16	10	1.50%	0.90%	0.9	9.60%	0.20%	-1.8
3	BLUE PIG	cmcafeeky	16	10	0.80%	0.70%	-0.1	4.20%	-0.40%	0.3
2	Ashland Explorers	ashamael	16	10	-0.30%	-0.50%	-2	6.80%	-1.50%	0.7
4	Chaos Hammer	jhsukow	16	10	-0.10%	0.20%	-1.2	0.20%	-0.90%	-0.7
3	living with a hernia	ysw128	15	11	4.50%	3.50%	1.2	-17.90%	0.60%	-1.1
4	Shamrock	bds9992	15	11	2.40%	2.20%	-4.2	-3.80%	0.00%	-0.2
4	Clear Eyes, Full Harp	beloud	15	11	2.80%	2.70%	4.2	-9.40%	-1.10%	2
1	Da 1 Blood	robusk	15	11	2.60%	2.50%	0.1	-3.20%	-0.20%	-2.2
5	The Sandman	jhsukow	15	11	0.20%	0.60%	1.9	0.50%	-2.50%	-1.3
1	white & nerdy	ysw128	15	11	1.90%	2.10%	2.5	-17.70%	-1.20%	0.4
3	Should Have Drafted Manu	24kpyrite	15	11	0.80%	0.50%	4.3	-9.50%	-1.80%	-1.2
1	Saw Sealed Vipers	amerk1180	15	11	0.10%	0.70%	1.7	3.50%	0.00%	0.5
2	Lukanomics	beloud	15	11	-0.70%	-1.40%	0.9	10.10%	-0.10%	-1.9
1	Black Mamba	pexetera	15	11	0.50%	0.60%	-1.9	11.10%	2.00%	3
3	Chris, the caregiver	albiband0	15	11	-0.30%	0.50%	0.4	5.10%	0.50%	0.2
2	Funke Family Band	jpevans31	15	11	-0.40%	-0.40%	-2.3	4.00%	-1.60%	-1.2
2	Def Leppard	Midge	14	12	3.70%	3.00%	1.2	-1.40%	1.10%	-2.6
3	Buster	jpevans31	14	12	2.70%	3.10%	4.8	-6.20%	-0.10%	0.5
4	Da 4 Bloods	robusk	14	12	2.60%	2.40%	-1.6	3.70%	1.60%	-3.5
2	Lasso Special	jhsukow	14	12	1.60%	1.70%	-2.8	0.50%	0.30%	-1
4	4 Non Blondes	dBKC	14	12	0.50%	2.00%	2.3	9.50%	2.70%	1.6
5	Chickens of the Cave	kinoa1	14	12	1.30%	1.50%	-1.8	0.40%	0.20%	1.6
5	I like money	NotoriousJ	14	12	0.40%	1.30%	3.6	15.50%	2.80%	2.3
1	BLUE DOG	cmcafeeky	14	12	-0.10%	-0.90%	-1.3	4.80%	-0.40%	-1.2
1	Loose Seal	jpevans31	14	12	1.10%	1.20%	-2.6	0.70%	1.30%	0.1
4	Diesel	tarheel1991	14	12	-0.10%	-0.20%	-0.1	-2.20%	-0.50%	-1.5
5	Panang	jkaye24	14	12	-0.10%	0.00%	-0.6	8.70%	-0.50%	1.3
2	Green	jkaye24	14	12	1.40%	1.60%	2.5	-0.60%	1.30%	1.6
5	Brazilian Frere-de-lance's	amerk1180	14	12	-0.60%	-0.50%	-2	2.40%	-0.50%	-1.2
1	Midnight Poutine	jhsukow	14	12	-1.70%	-0.90%	5.9	6.40%	-1.30%	-1
5	Da 5 Bloods	robusk	13	13	0.90%	1.90%	-1.8	1.00%	2.30%	2.3
5	Spider	bds9992	13	13	1.80%	1.50%	-2.8	0.70%	0.80%	-1.1
2	Shogun	bds9992	13	13	1.30%	1.00%	-2.4	-7.60%	0.20%	0.1
4	Automatic Artillery	20ks	13	13	1.30%	1.80%	1.6	-6.80%	-1.50%	-0.2
1	Dana Dane	beloud	13	13	1.50%	0.60%	1.4	-15.40%	-0.50%	-0.9
5	How Did You Get So Many Qs?	tarheel1991	13	13	1.80%	2.50%	3.7	-6.70%	1.10%	-0.5
5	Best QB in New York	beloud	13	13	1.00%	0.60%	1.5	-2.60%	1.40%	-0.7
4	Vega$ Vacation	gerryred	13	13	0.80%	1.30%	2.3	-4.00%	-0.60%	-1.3
3	3 Non Blondes	dBKC	13	13	-0.80%	-0.50%	4	10.60%	-0.50%	-1.8
1	Red	jkaye24	13	13	-0.70%	-0.30%	-0.5	4.20%	-0.80%	1.8
3	Da 3 Bloods	robusk	13	13	-0.20%	-1.00%	-3.7	-1.20%	0.50%	-1.6
2	D 2	dh555	13	13	1.80%	0.80%	2.9	-11.70%	-0.80%	-1.9
1	D 1	dh555	13	13	-2.00%	-2.00%	0.4	-0.20%	-3.70%	-0.8
4	Who's Playing for Second	jcred5	13	13	0.20%	0.90%	6	2.90%	-1.10%	3
2	Inland Taipans	amerk1180	13	13	-3.30%	-3.50%	0.5	12.90%	-1.90%	-0.9
3	Ashland Les Pauls	ashamael	13	13	-2.50%	-2.10%	-3.4	8.70%	-0.30%	-0.8
2	Bits of Real Panther	kinoa1	13	13	-0.50%	-0.40%	-1.8	2.60%	-0.90%	0.8
4	Ashland SGs	ashamael	13	13	-4.20%	-4.50%	-3.9	15.40%	-0.70%	-0.2
1	America	Midge	12	14	3.20%	2.30%	2.8	-7.30%	1.80%	-0.3
3	Bugs	benhoidal	12	14	1.20%	0.80%	0.8	-3.60%	2.90%	1.9
3	Upside-Down Taxi	jhsukow	12	14	-0.10%	0.60%	-1.4	8.90%	0.00%	-3
2	Larry Legend	jcred5	12	14	-0.50%	0.30%	2.3	2.70%	-1.40%	1.7
3	California Mountain Snake	pexetera	12	14	0.60%	1.70%	1.8	3.30%	-0.70%	0.9
3	Stormin' Norman	beloud	12	14	0.40%	0.10%	2.5	-13.70%	-0.80%	0.7
1	1 Non Blondes	dBKC	12	14	0.40%	1.20%	3.9	-4.60%	1.20%	1.4
1	About an Hour with Peggy (C)	mikee1	12	14	0.80%	-0.10%	-5.2	-3.50%	-0.70%	-1
5	Garbage	Midge	12	14	-0.30%	-0.30%	1.7	2.50%	1.20%	1.4
5	Sycamores	jcred5	12	14	-3.00%	-2.00%	1.6	-3.50%	-2.90%	2.5
2	Big Biscuits	20ks	12	14	-0.90%	-1.40%	-0.3	4.80%	0.00%	0.3
3	Welcome to Costco, I love you	NotoriousJ	12	14	-2.30%	-1.60%	-0.6	22.00%	1.70%	1.3
4	Sidewinder	pexetera	12	14	-2.60%	-3.00%	-3.1	3.30%	-1.90%	0.2
2	Lord Carlos, semaforo verde	albiband0	12	14	-4.00%	-3.80%	-0.4	10.00%	-0.10%	0.8
5	BLUE FOX	cmcafeeky	12	14	-4.00%	-4.60%	-3.6	-2.10%	-2.90%	0
5	5 Non Blondes	dBKC	11	15	0.90%	0.50%	-1.8	-6.10%	0.80%	-1
1	Disarming Dojos	20ks	11	15	0.30%	-0.90%	-0.6	-6.20%	0.10%	-0.6
4	D 4	dh555	11	15	0.10%	-0.60%	2.5	-5.60%	0.10%	-1.3
1	Bones	bds9992	11	15	1.40%	1.00%	-4.8	-9.80%	1.50%	-1.2
2	2 Non Blondes	dBKC	11	15	0.80%	0.20%	0.8	-8.80%	1.60%	0.8
2	Shaqtin A Fool	tarheel1991	11	15	-0.60%	-0.50%	0.1	-2.80%	1.80%	0.3
2	Daffy	benhoidal	11	15	0.10%	-0.30%	3.6	-12.20%	0.40%	0.7
4	Steve Holt!	jpevans31	11	15	-0.30%	-0.40%	-3.8	-4.60%	0.70%	0.1
3	Fireball	bds9992	11	15	-2.40%	-2.50%	-3.2	-1.00%	-1.00%	0.8
3	D 3	dh555	11	15	-1.10%	-1.70%	-0.6	0.00%	0.90%	-1.1
4	My last name is not "Sure"	NotoriousJ	11	15	-1.20%	-0.80%	-1.7	10.60%	2.80%	-1.5
5	About an Hour with Peggy (B)	mikee1	11	15	-3.60%	-4.20%	-3.1	1.80%	-2.30%	-1.1
5	The CO$MOPOLITAN	gerryred	10	16	-1.70%	-1.80%	1	-4.30%	-1.90%	-1.3
5	Gob	jpevans31	10	16	-0.60%	-1.60%	-5.4	-10.00%	1.70%	-1.6
3	The Big Aristotle	tarheel1991	10	16	-0.70%	-0.40%	-2.8	-8.90%	0.50%	0.3
1	Lola	benhoidal	10	16	-2.30%	-2.90%	-0.5	-3.90%	0.90%	3.5
1	Brawndo's got electrolytes	NotoriousJ	10	16	-3.50%	-3.40%	-3	13.50%	0.50%	-0.2
2	Peggy's Round Mound	24kpyrite	9	17	-2.80%	-3.20%	-1.5	-1.40%	1.50%	-0.6
4	smells like nirvana	ysw128	9	17	-0.40%	-0.40%	1.9	-12.40%	2.00%	1.5
2	eat it	ysw128	9	17	-1.10%	-0.90%	-0.2	-7.30%	1.80%	2.4
1	One for the Glove	jcred5	9	17	-3.50%	-2.70%	1.5	3.50%	-0.30%	3.5
2	Viva La$ Vega$	gerryred	8	18	0.30%	1.60%	2.3	-6.60%	1.20%	0.7
4	Chicago	Midge	8	18	-2.30%	-3.10%	-2.2	-9.60%	-1.20%	0.3
5	Taz	benhoidal	8	18	-0.70%	-0.10%	1.2	-8.90%	2.80%	4.9
4	BLUE CAT	cmcafeeky	8	18	-2.90%	-3.60%	-0.7	0.20%	-1.40%	-0.9
4	Tweety	benhoidal	8	18	-3.30%	-2.80%	0	-8.90%	2.20%	4.8
5	Duke Alvin, the thief	albiband0	8	18	-4.40%	-5.00%	-3.3	-3.60%	-0.80%	-1.1
1	Monsieur Mike, laissez-passer	albiband0	8	18	-6.50%	-5.70%	-4.7	8.80%	-0.50%	2.1
2	Go away! 'Batin'!	NotoriousJ	7	19	-3.30%	-3.30%	-1.8	5.30%	1.00%	0.8
4	Count Elvin, the benchwarmer	albiband0	7	19	-5.10%	-6.00%	-3.4	6.20%	0.00%	-0.3
3	Yellow	jkaye24	7	19	-3.20%	-3.60%	-3.7	-8.10%	0.50%	3.8
3	Leaving La$ Vega$	gerryred	6	20	-1.90%	-1.20%	0.2	-3.30%	0.00%	-0.8
5	bedrock anthem	ysw128	6	20	-0.90%	-0.90%	1.2	-11.90%	1.90%	1.9
3	Estimating Earnings	20ks	5	21	-2.90%	-3.00%	-4.5	-16.50%	3.50%	3.6
1	The Hangover	gerryred	5	21	-3.20%	-3.00%	-1.2	-2.70%	0.30%	-0.2

	PyWins v. Wins	AvgDReb%	AvgOReb%	AvgCReb%	AvgTO%	OppWin%	EstimatedFnlWins
kinoa1	1.5	72.90%	27.40%	100.20%	14.70%	49.64%	259
pexetera	-0.4	74.00%	29.90%	103.90%	14.60%	49.03%	245
ashamael	-2.4	75.30%	29.90%	105.30%	13.90%	49.79%	235
amerk1180	-2.8	74.20%	29.80%	104.00%	14.20%	48.91%	237
24kpyrite	-5.3	72.10%	26.10%	98.10%	15.20%	49.40%	235
jhsukow	3.6	72.00%	29.60%	101.60%	14.50%	49.46%	232
mikee1	0.8	72.80%	27.70%	100.50%	14.00%	49.19%	229
robusk	0.6	72.80%	26.80%	99.60%	15.40%	49.69%	225
Midge	4.8	72.70%	26.30%	99.00%	14.90%	49.51%	212
cmcafeeky	-1.3	72.90%	27.50%	100.50%	13.90%	48.90%	215
dh555	1.4	72.40%	26.60%	99.00%	14.70%	50.41%	214
beloud	-0.9	71.70%	25.20%	96.90%	15.00%	50.10%	212
bds9992	1.7	72.70%	25.10%	97.90%	14.70%	50.43%	202
jkaye24	1.4	72.50%	28.70%	101.20%	14.60%	49.44%	208
tarheel1991	-3.4	71.40%	26.60%	98.00%	15.40%	50.30%	201
jpevans31	-1	72.90%	25.50%	98.40%	15.40%	49.70%	200
jcred5	0.9	75.20%	25.50%	100.70%	15.10%	50.34%	201
dBKC	0	73.60%	26.40%	100.10%	16.00%	50.58%	192
20ks	2.5	72.80%	25.10%	97.90%	15.40%	50.46%	185
NotoriousJ	1.5	75.40%	31.30%	106.70%	15.70%	50.36%	173
ysw128	-0.4	71.70%	21.50%	93.30%	15.20%	50.36%	169
gerryred	12.8	72.50%	25.40%	97.90%	14.70%	51.40%	160
albiband0	-6.9	74.10%	28.50%	102.60%	14.90%	51.50%	143
benhoidal	-6.9	73.00%	23.30%	96.30%	16.70%	51.11%	140

Posted by Midge on 4/16/2021 8:21:00 PM (view original):
I still say that all you need to draft is grit, determination, and hustle. None of the other stuff matters.

That's 100% why I took Nic Batum

4 of the top 8 individual teams in my division, great!

Serious recommendation for the draft next time, we have a list somewhere that has compiled the record of owners in this league. I think most of us agree the owner, not the fortune of the strength of which team they enter, is what drives the difficulty of a division. I think we should take the all time rankings of the owners and just snake them through each division. 1. Atlantic, 2. Central, 3. midwest, 4. pacific, 5 pacific, 6 midwest and so on. We'd then have to come up with a close alternative for the 5 worlds, which with a little thought should be doable. Maybe as simple as W2 starts with 1. in the Central and snake from there.

Thoughts?

The current model is set up to minimize the occurrences of any one owner playing another owner an imbalanced amount of times.

my first piece of BIRTHDAY CAKE....

and what is even more strange:
I have yet to savor a
**** SANDWICH....

normally,
Ive feasted on a smorgasboard of **** Sandwiches by this point in the season....
(big fat juicy ones, like the chef knew I was coming)

Looks like the wheels are officially off. All things considered, there was no remedy past the fifth or sixth round. Didn’t start out with enough usage and was hoping to get enough despite the absence of an A1 scorer. Well, that didn’t work out. Time to pin down some ideas for next year *shrug*

Owner	Points	Playoff Teams	1st Round Bye
24kpyrite	112	4	2
kinoa1	112	3	3
amerk1180	111	5	3
pexetera	108	5	3
ashamael	105	5	1
cmcafeeky	102	3	1
beloud	99	5
jhsukow	99	4	1
tarheel1991	95	3	1
jkaye24	94	4	1
robusk	94	2
mikee1	92	2	1
midge	90	2	1
jcred5	89	2
dh555	88	2	1
bds9992	83	2
dbkc	83	1
jpevans31	80	1	1
20ks	79	2
ysw128	75	1
notoriousj	73	1
benhoidal	68	0
albiband0	66	1
gerryred	63	0

Up until this season, I don't think I had won 5 games in a cycle before...it has happened a bunch this season, but sure feels like lots of 5 L's too. All or nothing!

is there any way to balance how many games you play an opponent over the 5 seasons. try to play each opponent between 15 and 20 games. i think the avg if you could balance it is close to 18 games an opponent.

Posted by ysw128 on 4/24/2021 9:35:00 PM (view original):
is there any way to balance how many games you play an opponent over the 5 seasons. try to play each opponent between 15 and 20 games. i think the avg if you could balance it is close to 18 games an opponent.

Rob ran extensive computer analysis and this was the best it came out.

Posted by ysw128 on 4/24/2021 9:35:00 PM (view original):
is there any way to balance how many games you play an opponent over the 5 seasons. try to play each opponent between 15 and 20 games. i think the avg if you could balance it is close to 18 games an opponent.

That is exactly how it is set up. I ran it through and optimizer for it. The output matrix is on one of these threads.