well, the 10 foul advantage for the press team, vs the zone team, is quite a bit on its face. but after looking at it, the foul difference is not really that surprising, its the 2pt possessions that has a crazy disparity.
you took a ton of 3s (draw few fouls) and he took a ton of 2s (draws many fouls). i don't know why you took so many more 3pta than normal, if that was intentional (pushed distro to the guards) or if there was an extreme roll on 3pta on the high side for you... but to me that really stands out as a main driver. how much of that was intentional? seems his 3pta were low, same question on that side.
also you are fouling at 2 minutes, and fouled intentionally 5 times in those final 2 minutes. i don't think those really count, so the actual margin is closer to 5.
your team definitely should be a low fouling team, but his is reasonably efficient, too... the press and ath/def should work against him, but that is a weaker factor than him taking so many more 2pt attempts than you. 2pt fga were over 50% higher, but with so many fouls, the actual possession count where he was going for a 2 (and potentially leading to a lot of fouls) is probably even more than 50% higher than you. part of this is because his raw offensive possessions are (predictably) higher from his TO advantage. seems he won reb too, not sure he exactly should have (but didn't look too closely)
end of the day, the rate of 2pt offensive possessions, knowing he has more than 50% more of those than you, probably makes up for at least 5 fouls of the difference. overall, running zone and with your ath/def, you should definitely be a few fouls ahead of him, in a game with even ratios of 2pt/3pt possessions, so the gap from average is certainly more than 5, but its probably less than 10, and i would call that a few fouls of luck and 5+ fouls from the actual 2pt possession disparity (with 5 irrelevant intentional fouls). so IMO the fouls themselves are unremarkable, but the disparity in 2pt possessions might be, seems extreme to me.
8/27/2021 1:35 PM (edited)