Have been getting my clock cleaned lately in recruiting battles. Prolly lost 10 of our last 12 or so.

We've lost the battle when @ 69%, 64%, 60%, 54%, 51%, and so on. These are mostly to A and A- prestige teams, (have raised my teams to current prestige scores of "C" and "C+), but have lost a battle to a team with lower prestige when we were up 60% - 40%.

First thing you're thinking: He's recruiting too high. These are mostly guys in the 20s and 30s at their respective positions. Usually avoid any guys under position ranking of 20, guessing that the A prestige guys will scoop them up. Recently got into a battle with an A prestige for a #64 ranked SG. So I'm trying to stay in my lane, but maybe push up just a little to increase our talent level.

Is there a better a timing formula in terms of how you drop points and $ on guys? I've tried to get on top and stay on top, but have found these guys run off the minute an A prestige looks their direction for more than 5 seconds. Pivoted and worked to stay no lower than Moderate, while keeping attention points steady at 60 (equivalent to a HV) then dropped a bunch of $ once signing season opens. Still lost that battle even though we were up 59-41.

Have lost guys when I've given them everything: Start + 25 minutes + all $ + steady diet of 60-80 points throughout. Have lost guys when there is literally nothing else I could have offered them. Been up. Lost. Again, these are guys in the 20s and 30s, guys who will never be drafted cause they'll max out around 800 OVR.

We're just getting destroyed over the last couple seasons in these battles. Appreciate any tips. Hoping to play the long game and try to raise these mid-majors to competitive, but starting to read the writing on the wall. The engine seems so wildly stacked to favor a few big schools if all they have to do is whistle thinly in a guy's direction.

BTW, yes, I'm trying to hone in on guys who offer 3-4 Good or Very Good preferences. Am being mindful to stay away from guys with huge potential in ATH + DEF, cause those are the guys the giants will scoop up.

Thanks again for any thoughts.

My advice is go after guys that A Prestige teams have no business offering a start. That is how you make up the difference on prestige a little. Also dont show all of your cards too soon. By that i mean if you have 3 schollys and you are VH all alone on 3 guys and other coaches see that they know you cant go all in on one of the 3. This opens the door for them to snag a player from you.
In the same lane but always watch what the competition is doing. If you see A prestige UCLA on 6 studs and he only has 4 schollys you know he cant go all in on all of them. This is when i would sneak attack on signing day or a few turns after signing.

The best advice i have is to not get into a heated recruit battle with a team more than 1 full letter grade above you. If you are a C+ you can battle with B+ but A or A- might have the ability to push you out of the roll if they really want the player.

As a general rule, it’s best to avoid battles with teams that have higher prestige, but it sounds like you’re just catching a lot of bad luck. Of course, you want to avoid battles if possible, but you’re putting yourself in a position to win a lot of them. I wouldn’t change too much and just trust that you’ll start to win some rolls.

Thanks, Nick. I do like the stay-within-a-grade" rule. I might add, though, that I'm usually in on my guys from the start. I believe lower prestige can't afford to miss a single points cycle. Then, once I'm in 240 or so points, most of my allotment, here comes the "A team" reaching lower than they should. They're prolly getting bumped elsewhere. Kinda late for a lower prestige team to start over with points elsewhere, so I go all in rather than chasing somebody else by the tail. What to do with resources in this moment? Find a lesser player and bump an even lower prestige? Or raise up against the A? Kind of a lose lose.

I see what you are saying RLS1. Like trojan said it does seem like some bad luck. If you are in the roll that is all you can ask for. If you are in the roll with an A prestige at a C prestige you did well. Maybe shoot for 1 or 2 sure role players and 1 C+ prestige stud player to mitigate the chances of losing guys. Recruiting at C prestige is hard because you know what you need to succeed and advance but getting those players takes some luck. Recruit local and recruit cheap. Try to get a guy for "free" and go after more stud players. It's a fun game when you get lucky on a couple guys.

Thanks, Nick. Am using a multi-tiered system at the moment, and it feels a little better to think I won't go 0-for-3, like I did last round. (Jinx activated . . . )

Btw, anyone know how the engine ultimately decides? Is it literally just a coin flip, ala draft lottery kind of odds? When I'm up 60% or even 69% are the bingo balls falling against me over and over? I've been recruiting as if there's a way to convince a player/the engine, but maybe not. Could I be up 90% and lose the bingo roll a 10%? Is there a # at which it's automatic?

Posted by rls1 on 9/16/2021 12:49:00 PM (view original):
Btw, anyone know how the engine ultimately decides? Is it literally just a coin flip, ala draft lottery kind of odds? When I'm up 60% or even 69% are the bingo balls falling against me over and over? I've been recruiting as if there's a way to convince a player/the engine, but maybe not. Could I be up 90% and lose the bingo roll a 10%? Is there a # at which it's automatic?

I’ve assumed that a 60% chance means a literal 60% chance. But I’ve questioned that at times because it seems the higher prestige wins more often than not even if the odds are against them lol.

Posted by baseball4309 on 9/16/2021 3:23:00 PM (view original):

Posted by rls1 on 9/16/2021 12:49:00 PM (view original):
Btw, anyone know how the engine ultimately decides? Is it literally just a coin flip, ala draft lottery kind of odds? When I'm up 60% or even 69% are the bingo balls falling against me over and over? I've been recruiting as if there's a way to convince a player/the engine, but maybe not. Could I be up 90% and lose the bingo roll a 10%? Is there a # at which it's automatic?

I’ve assumed that a 60% chance means a literal 60% chance. But I’ve questioned that at times because it seems the higher prestige wins more often than not even if the odds are against them lol.

+1

I try to get the higher % but ultimately i look at rolls with 2 teams as 50/50 no matter the %. When in 3 way rolls i look at it as 33% chance no matter what the percentage. This helps keep my sanity.

Posted by Nick_Bennett on 9/16/2021 5:36:00 PM (view original):
I try to get the higher % but ultimately i look at rolls with 2 teams as 50/50 no matter the %. When in 3 way rolls i look at it as 33% chance no matter what the percentage. This helps keep my sanity.

Oh my goodness I've said this for years and all the spreadsheet stat guys come out of the woods to blast me for hours!!!

Prestige rating plus effort plus preference scenarios equals, versus those same things for an opposing coach, equals a total effort score. Once that score is measured up between the two teams, odds are created. Once odds are created, the player makes his decision. So yes at that point the decision is just a weighted coin flip.

I've talked with coaches in the past that thought prestige and effort were totaled up, and if the total score was enough from both teams to get them both involved in the roll, THEN the player would decide between the two based off of the preferences. That is not accurate.

Some things that I try to do as a lower prestige team. 1) patience. I just wrote this recently, maybe here. But you need time for your preferences to develop. Like wants success, long term coach. 2) unlock, offer ship, and offer max promises immediately. That's not going to fully scare anybody. But the faster you approach, the more a team will assume you're going to be a factor in the fight. You DON'T wanna necessarily go all in with visits immediately. That you have to feel out by paying attention to coaching tendencies over the years/seasons. Sometimes it's a good idea to spend early, sometimes it's not. It's only better to spend early when 3) your preferences are better than other schools on the players list.

#4) is a bit different. START your recruiting search by looking at preferences FIRST. Before looking at the talent of the player. If you go thru and color dot all THE best preference matches you have with a color of your choice, you can then go back and look from that pool specifically, and see if there's any talent you want to pursue.

5) you don't "need" EE caliber players to win. It helps! But a roster full of elite 4 year players can be just as deadly. Be patient, and only try for those 5*s when they come to you. Don't try it every season just to do so. Don't force. There WILL be a player or two each season that you will match perfectly. If it's a season where that player happens to be an elite 5*, go for him. If not, keep it moving.

6) load AP on that player. Get up over 1000 if it's a late signer. Over 600 or so if it's an early guy. It's your big chance so gotta swing for the fences. All you can ask for in a roll/flip is to lead. The rest is decided by odds/luck.

Wow that got a little longer than expected

That's what she said. - Michael Scott

Honestly, if you are getting those percentages against A prestige teams, then it seems like you aren't doing anything wrong. You just have had a string of bad luck. The pendulum will swing in your favor.

1. the percentages will even out, as noted
2. but, work to find players who an A prestige wont be thrilled about - say a guy with a flaw that you dont mind. For example, a big man who will be outstanding in ATH, DEF and BLK - and has nice secondary ratings like passing - BUT who is very limited LP. Take him and enjoy four great seasons
3. Get inside the head of the A prestige team. Who are his priorities - and who are his backups. Fight for a backup but dont fight an A for a priority prospect
4. think about timing - if you are against an A who will have EE's you face a tough battle for a late signer - because the A will get more $$ from the EEs and will surely go all in. On the other hand if you are against an A for early signer who looks like a secondary target for the A, maybe he wont go all in
5. know when to hold em, know when to fold em