Posted by cal_bears on 12/5/2021 2:49:00 AM (view original):
I understand that. But if you have a full even roster of three a class, at least two will have difficulty meeting those minutes. But that's not my question. Say you have to promise freshmen minutes as part of recruiting and then you would have two sophomores who might only get 4 minutes. Would they stay for sure? That's what I am trying to establish for us all here.
i think the issue is the old rate of transfer was so insanely low, that many of us who had been around for ever basically never saw them. i definitely never had one and i ignored the soph/jr PT emails the entire time i was there. i've heard of people losing them, but not in proximity to me. i don't think i've ever had a conf mate lose a transfer over promises.
so i think it is going to be rather hard for someone to confirm this one, like a single person, unless CS has confirmed there was a change in 3.0 to get rid of soph/jr transfers (or if its in the change log for 3.0). no individual has nearly the body of experience on an individual basis to be able to rule out transfers, you'd have to have a thousand players complain and none of them to leave to start having confidence there was a change. so in light of that, i would want to see the topic go around at least a few times, preferably a half dozen, without anyone having seen a single transfer in 3.0, to feel any confidence they don't exist anymore.
but like i was saying earlier - the conventional wisdom before 3.0 was to ignore those transfer emails, not to worry about getting minutes, because it was so rare to lose a transfer. conventional wisdom i am 100% on board with. between the odds and the realities on the ground, its just not a common problem. great sophs tend to need to get minutes for growth, and only the best teams are able to regularly take great juniors and have them not playing. usually the guys who don't get minutes tend to be not that great, and you can also 100% safely bench seniors. for the remaining edge cases, you just take the risk, because its so small. that's how its always been, so the additional assurance you are looking for before you leap - just not necessary.
its a perfectly good question though, and if anyone does know the answer i agree it would be nice to know!