At the 139-game mark, here is a quick look at my predictions...
League 2, NL (Braves & Reds)
Pick #6
Braves- 1953, 1999, 2019, 1899, 1960
This entire debacle started when I mis-judged the number of teams drafting from the Braves. I should have gone the Reds. Prediction: This team will lose 90+ games and fail to advance to Round 4.
Record 62-77. This team started 4-17 and has pretty much sucked all season. Sadly, I hit this projection perfectly.
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League 1, AL (Yankees)
Pick #5
Seasons - 1956, 1936, 1904, 1998, 2002
Chesbro did really well for me in one of thejuice6's early rounds last year. Hoping he does the same. Prediction: I believe this is a playoff team and could push upper 90's in wins.
Record 74-65. While Chesbro has been very good (34-20, 3.88 ERA, 1st in A.L. Cy Young), the rest of the pitching staff has been horrendous (ranks 18th, w/6.00 ERA). So despite being ranked 2nd in runs scored, we won't even hit 90 wins and are a coin flip to make the playoffs.
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League 4, NL (Cubs / Pirates)
Pick #5
Pirates - 1935, 1992, 1908, 1972, 1905
Projection: This is easily the best team I drafted. The 5 seasons I selected would have been my first or second choice in each group. Without sounding too cocky, I would be shocked if this team didn't make the playoffs and has a shot at 100+ wins.
Record: 86-53. Ranked 1st in scoring and 6th in ERA. On pace to win exactly 100 games. I'd say I hit this projection pretty accurately.
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League 6, NL (D'Backs, Astros, Expos/Nats, Mets, Padres, Rockies)
Pick 8
Padres - 2007, 1998, 1978, 2010, 1989
Then Chisock took a big fat dump onto my well thought out plan by immediately jumping in to the Padres mix. WTF? Surely, anybody else could see that there isn't enough starting pitching to support two Padres teams in this tournament. Prediction: This team has very little shot at making the playoffs. I would be thrilled if this team could get to .500 and advance to round 3, but 74-78 wins is more likely.
Record: 68-71. Despite having very strong relievers, this team is 12-22 in 1-run games. We won't make the playoffs but have a decent shot at advancing to round 4. As I suspected, Chisock's team is the worst team in the N.L. and his selection of the Padres (instead of Expos or Astros) basically screwed us both.
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League 3, NL (Cardinals & Phillies)
Pick 9
Phillies - 1894, 1981, 2008, 1952, 1905
Prediction: Not sure how this team stacks up with the Cardinals teams in the league, but I would be shocked if we weren't one of the top two Phillies teams in terms of W-L record. I say top 2, because of ronthegenius. I am a little annoyed that the other Phillies owners allowed 1893 to fall into ronthegenius' lap after he drafted '15 Pete Alexander with the 2nd overall pick (top Phillies pick). I think 86-90 wins is possible, albeit we'll probably be a wildcard team at best.
Record: 68-71. Completely overrated how good this team was going to be. We've been a little unlucky as we're +62 run differential (best in division). But the offense is worse than expected (only ranked 4th in the N.L. in runs scored). I was also wrong on ronthegenius (his team is tied with my team). Huge miss.
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League 3, NL (Cardinals & Phillies)
Pick 1
Cardinals - 1985, 1943, 1952, 1922, 2021
Prediction. My Hornsby pick means only 8 usable pitchers, so I'm a little weak on my 4th SP (one of my 1922 bums will have to soak up about 150 ips), but I have really good RPs (both in depth and quality), and the offense will absolutely crush. This may not be my best team, but it will be close, and it will be fun reading the boxscores every day. I will temper my excitement and guess 92-96 wins, although I wouldn't be surprised if it was more.
Record; 80-59. Ironically, the reason for the nice record is not the offense, but the pitching. We're ranked 1st in the N.L. in ERA (and 6th in runs scored). My $16M+ Hornsby has been fine (.341, .396, .589) but he's not even leading my team in RBIs (Willie McGee). Also, Hornsby is ranked 4th in MVP. Still, no complaints and we're on pace for 93-94 wins, which is what I expected.
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League 4, AL (White Sox & Tigers)
Pick 3
White Sox- 1917, 1957, 2000, 1967, 1905
Prediction: The defense and pitching should result in a lot of 3-2 and 2-1 games. I predict that I will lead the league in ERA and be bottom 5 in runs scored. That formula is typically good enough to produce 86-90 wins. Of course, due to the expected abundance of 1-run games in this league, my 1-run record will go along way toward how close I get to that prediction.
Record: 72-67. We are right about the pitching (1st in fewest runs allowed) and offense (4th to last in runs scored). Also, we're 5th in fielding% and first in + plays. The forty-five 1-run games we've played leads the league. We're a bit unlucky (21-24) in those games, otherwise we'd be on pace for 86 wins. Fairly accurate prediction.
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League 4, AL (White Sox & Tigers)
Pick 9
Tigers - 1968, 1945, 1987, 1937, 1908
Prediction: I have no idea if this team will be any good. Drafting pitching early means my hitting is the worst among all the Tigers teams. But isn't good pitching supposed to beat good hitting? Don't like my chances against other White Sox teams. Feels like a .500 team if I only played other Tiger teams, so probably below .500.
Record: 77-62. I was right about my Tigers' hitting and pitching ranks. The six Tigers teams' run totals: 895, 846, 829, 792, 771, 708. The Tigers' runs allowed: 657, 714, 756, 830, 838, 950. First in pitching, last in hitting. We're on the lucky side of 1-run games (21-16) so we're overachieving. I certainly underestimated the quality of this team. A pleasant surprise even though due to a tough division, this team will probably miss the playoffs.
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League 1, NL (Giants)
Pick 1
Seasons - 1908, 1921, 1989, 1958, 2009
Prediction: I love this team's offense despite no Bonds. The defense is strong at the key positions. The starting pitching is really strong. The team's weakness: I don't really have any lock-down RPs, so Garrelts will have to be the 2-3 inning closer while mediocre pitchers like Stu Miller (1.15 whip) and Rosy Ryan (1.17 whip) will soak up long relief innings. I have a feeling this could be one of those teams that wins 85-90 games despite the Exp Win% indicating this is a 100-win team. I see a 20-30 record in 1-run games in my future.
Record: 91-48. Well, believe it or not, this team is neutral in 1-run games (15-14), so their .656 Exp Win% is about the same as their real life Win% .655. I'll take that every time. This is currently my best team and is on track to be the #2 overall team in round 3. With '08 Mathewson crushing it (34-12, 2.67 ERA), it looks like I made a decent choice with my #1 selection.
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League 5, NL (Dodgers)
Pick 7
Seasons - 1930, 1985, 2003, 1969, 1945
Prediction: Looking back, I'm fairly certain I should have taken 2013 instead of 2003. As a result, my starting pitching just doesn't seem as good as it should be for being a Dodgers franchise. I have Gagne and Niedenfuer leading the bullpen, so maybe I do well in close games. It feels like my hitting will be above average and my pitching below average. Statistically, feels like a .500 team, but with some 1-run luck, maybe overachieve and win 85-89 games.
Record: 82-57. Ironically, this team is fighting it out with mllama54 and his '13 Kershaw/Jansen for the best record in the N.L. Kershaw (19-6, 3.64) and Jansen (39/44 saves, 3.60 era) have been solid for mllama54. Meanwhile, my K.Brown (16-8, 4.40) and Gagne (31/33 saves, 0.86 ERA) have also been very good. But his 2013 hitters have been way better than mine (all who have been benched), so advantage 2013. Regardless, this team is performing better than anticipated. The hitting is 2nd in NL as expected, but the pitching is way better than I thought (3rd).
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For whatever reason, I never got around to doing pre-season writeups on my others eight teams.
1/27/2022 9:52 AM (edited)