Sac State Megathread: D1 success w/o D1 players? Topic

Posted by Trentonjoe on 2/4/2022 11:20:00 PM (view original):
Posted by sol_phenom3 on 1/22/2022 10:56:00 AM (view original):
Posted by texrangers18 on 1/21/2022 4:04:00 PM (view original):
I can already answer this. It won't work. Either at D1 or at D3.
I think this depends how you define success. I think you could consistently make the postseason at D3 with all D3 players but I don't think you'd survive past the first round most seasons.

At D1 I'm curious to see how cubcub and benis perform...Big Sky is a tough conference so cubcub could prove a lot of people wrong by just netting a positive conference record and a postseason appearance of any kind in his first 4-5 seasons.

Outside of loading up like a 0-0-6-6 lineup with the absolute highest potential players I'd say this strategy isn't viable for a deep NT run for sure.
I made the S16 when I did only D3 players at D3. It was hard but you could at least make the NT consistently.

At D1 I never made the NT. I think I tried for 6-7 seasons. It was brutal.

Cub and Benis are excellent coaches. Cub is significantly better than I am and Benis is at least better than I am. I honestly don’t think they can do it. I give them a less than 10% chance of ever winning 2 NT games in a season and less than 40% chance of winning one. I would be impressed if they even made the NT in a 1/2 way competitive conference.

I agree with TJ's odds here for S16 (10% seems solid). I'm a little more optimistic that Benis or I can pull out a 2R NT season. Just takes a good sim.
2/5/2022 12:06 PM
Posted by HouseBert on 2/4/2022 9:34:00 PM (view original):
I think this is a silly experiment with a coach who is obviously just bored with HD. He has three teams all of which he is in the first year with. Just look at his resumes in those worlds. It reads like a list of Taylor Swift's exes. Now I get that he's typically a nice guy. He posts a lot of helpful stuff, but is just stupid. I just want a normal HD experience at a lower level like I'm used to. Not necessarily easy, but normal. A CA D1 coach scouting D2 players in South Dakota so he can get his rocks off in a game that he used to find fun and challenging isn't normal.
I understand your frustration and I am sorry. That being said, the guy you're unhappy about me taking is genuinely a D1 level player. I'm not even the only D1 coach interested in him, another guy (much higher prestige, and a Big 6 team by the way) who isn't even doing a challenge also showed interest. I have said (and continue to say) that I will stop doing this challenge if I end up not being able to compete at a real D1 level and just end up stealing high-end D2 quality recruits from D2 schools, but it's not really fair for you to complain that I'm stealing actual low D1 quality guys from your D3 school.

Also, I still find this game very fun and challenging. I do take (slight) offense to your criticism of my resumes ;). My Tark resume does include a bunch of hopping around but in Allen I've spent 6 seasons each completing two rebuilds and I spent a combined 29 seasons at my last 2 schools in Wooden...
2/5/2022 12:15 PM
Posted by topdogggbm on 2/5/2022 3:42:00 AM (view original):
Posted by HouseBert on 2/4/2022 9:34:00 PM (view original):
I think this is a silly experiment with a coach who is obviously just bored with HD. He has three teams all of which he is in the first year with. Just look at his resumes in those worlds. It reads like a list of Taylor Swift's exes. Now I get that he's typically a nice guy. He posts a lot of helpful stuff, but is just stupid. I just want a normal HD experience at a lower level like I'm used to. Not necessarily easy, but normal. A CA D1 coach scouting D2 players in South Dakota so he can get his rocks off in a game that he used to find fun and challenging isn't normal.
Ya know, you're not wrong! It is a silly experiment. But that's what some guys here do. Not that it's bad or I'm singling anybody out. I've thought of silly things to try. Thus particular experiment just depends on what kinda recruits get generated, because the fact that a player is in a D2 pool doesn't mean that he's not D1 talent (looking at you Kilbourne, D2 Naismith, North Alabama from a few seasons back). So if the talent is there to sign, this is an easy one. If not, it'll be more difficult).

I've seen a press team "no defense" make the championship game (which might as well be a title because it's just one game that could've went either way). It was all high SPD, high ST, and all players with 40 DEF or less.

I don't hate this experiment tho. I think the promoting of it is what makes it silly to YOU. But as you can see there are others interested, and even one other coach that's trying it as well. This is what is basketball math nerds do!
It is a subjective and not objective. It’s affecting me so I’m naturally more bothered. Maybe he’s actually trying to be decent by not dunking exclusively on local D2s like TJ, but that still means dunking on someone else somewhere. I think we all know that, especially at D3 (which is exclusively my experience since returning to HD I know) one player can make a huge difference on title aspirations.

The fact that more coaches are doing it doesn’t make it better. My main point, which may be obscured by my overt bitterness, is these “experiments” don’t take place in a vacuum or “lab”. They affect real paying customers of a game of which retention has been a perpetual topic of interest. That may sound dramatic but merely present as factual. Maybe no one has issue but me. And maybe others wouldn’t care enough to comment. Maybe they’d just quit. IDK.

my other point is that the optics aren’t great. You may have hit the target that this public promotion is one thing that makes it seem worse subjectively. And the guy has jumped school to school, world to world and that is only obvious because of how active he is on forums etc.

I just feel caught up in a whim of a guy who has now admittedly given 10% chance of the most minimal “success” in one NT win. And it could theoretically cost other coaches players that could bring the highest degree of relative success in lower divisions. And he does abandon projects. See his YouTube series. Not hating, but just frustrated.

I get it if others aren’t bothered. I’m not saying they should be. I just feel a certain way and this is the way I’ve chosen to vent it.
2/5/2022 12:37 PM
Posted by HouseBert on 2/5/2022 12:37:00 PM (view original):
Posted by topdogggbm on 2/5/2022 3:42:00 AM (view original):
Posted by HouseBert on 2/4/2022 9:34:00 PM (view original):
I think this is a silly experiment with a coach who is obviously just bored with HD. He has three teams all of which he is in the first year with. Just look at his resumes in those worlds. It reads like a list of Taylor Swift's exes. Now I get that he's typically a nice guy. He posts a lot of helpful stuff, but is just stupid. I just want a normal HD experience at a lower level like I'm used to. Not necessarily easy, but normal. A CA D1 coach scouting D2 players in South Dakota so he can get his rocks off in a game that he used to find fun and challenging isn't normal.
Ya know, you're not wrong! It is a silly experiment. But that's what some guys here do. Not that it's bad or I'm singling anybody out. I've thought of silly things to try. Thus particular experiment just depends on what kinda recruits get generated, because the fact that a player is in a D2 pool doesn't mean that he's not D1 talent (looking at you Kilbourne, D2 Naismith, North Alabama from a few seasons back). So if the talent is there to sign, this is an easy one. If not, it'll be more difficult).

I've seen a press team "no defense" make the championship game (which might as well be a title because it's just one game that could've went either way). It was all high SPD, high ST, and all players with 40 DEF or less.

I don't hate this experiment tho. I think the promoting of it is what makes it silly to YOU. But as you can see there are others interested, and even one other coach that's trying it as well. This is what is basketball math nerds do!
It is a subjective and not objective. It’s affecting me so I’m naturally more bothered. Maybe he’s actually trying to be decent by not dunking exclusively on local D2s like TJ, but that still means dunking on someone else somewhere. I think we all know that, especially at D3 (which is exclusively my experience since returning to HD I know) one player can make a huge difference on title aspirations.

The fact that more coaches are doing it doesn’t make it better. My main point, which may be obscured by my overt bitterness, is these “experiments” don’t take place in a vacuum or “lab”. They affect real paying customers of a game of which retention has been a perpetual topic of interest. That may sound dramatic but merely present as factual. Maybe no one has issue but me. And maybe others wouldn’t care enough to comment. Maybe they’d just quit. IDK.

my other point is that the optics aren’t great. You may have hit the target that this public promotion is one thing that makes it seem worse subjectively. And the guy has jumped school to school, world to world and that is only obvious because of how active he is on forums etc.

I just feel caught up in a whim of a guy who has now admittedly given 10% chance of the most minimal “success” in one NT win. And it could theoretically cost other coaches players that could bring the highest degree of relative success in lower divisions. And he does abandon projects. See his YouTube series. Not hating, but just frustrated.

I get it if others aren’t bothered. I’m not saying they should be. I just feel a certain way and this is the way I’ve chosen to vent it.
"Maybe he’s actually trying to be decent by not dunking exclusively on local D2s like TJ, but that still means dunking on someone else somewhere. I think we all know that, especially at D3 (which is exclusively my experience since returning to HD I know) one player can make a huge difference on title aspirations."

I think it's extremely unfair you feel that you have a "right" to sign the D1 quality, D2 projected guys in your backyard. You're a D3 school. D3 success hinges on trying to find the D2 quality guys who fall through the cracks, not fixating on the D1 quality guy that multiple D1 teams are interested in. If this was a different situation where I was a D prestige D1 team recruiting D1 projected guys I would still be all over him. And I probably wouldn't even land him, because I'm sure there would be a C/C+ level team that would reach on him, even though he isn't *quite* that level of player.

"I just feel caught up in a whim of a guy who has now admittedly given 10% chance of the most minimal “success” in one NT win. And it could theoretically cost other coaches players that could bring the highest degree of relative success in lower divisions. And he does abandon projects. See his YouTube series. Not hating, but just frustrated."

1. I said 10% chance to make S16, not 10% chance to make 2R. I really think there is a super solid chance to make 2R.
2. Since you haven't played D1, I think you're pretty misinformed about how successful Low D1 D prestige teams generally are. You do realize that a 10% chance to make a S16 in the next 7-8 seasons for a D prestige complete rebuild is quite solid, right? It's not exactly easy to scrounge the bottom of the D1 pool for guys that can compete with teams laden with 5 stars...
3. If I steal a guy from you that is not a remotely D1 level player, complain all you want. But I have a track record of succeeding at D1 with D2 projected recruits (Idaho State Iba 3 seed's best player was projected D2 in fact), so let's see how good my guys end up being before you complain too much. If I am dipping down and hurting you to form a team that isn't relevant at the D1 level, then it's my bad and I will stop. But if we end up being fringe Top 25 then you have nothing to complain about.
4. Yeah, my bad on the YouTube series. Turns out its a lot of work, but clearly, I don't abandon all my projects because within the past year I've rebuilt low 3 D1 teams into true Top 25 talent teams, and made an E8 in my fourth season at a D1 school with no seniors. I have a pretty good track record for completing pretty much every rebuild I've started in my HD career.

tl;dr I don't think anyone should get mad at me for signing D1 quality players, no matter what their projected division is. Every Proj D2 guy I sign is one more Proj D1 guy that is available. The jury is still out on how effective they can all be together, but I'm excited to find out. It's not like I'm really reaching that far down in talent this RS1 period and signing guys who don't deserve a D1 uniform. I think I have a pretty solid chance to achieve real NT success.
2/5/2022 3:04 PM (edited)
Dudes just venting, let him vent.

Nobody is doing anything wrong.
2/5/2022 3:32 PM
To be fair, if it was any world other than Tark, I would have jumped on Montana just so I could beat you and Benis every season :)
2/5/2022 3:36 PM
Posted by Trentonjoe on 2/5/2022 3:32:00 PM (view original):
Dudes just venting, let him vent.

Nobody is doing anything wrong.
That’s the long and short of it. I don’t deserve anything. I’ve had D1’s poach late for MUCH lesser talent. I’m not mad about the result so much as the unorthodoxy that led there. Finding a D1-level talent in D2 that gets snatched up by someone playing by different self-imposed (albeit legal) rules is just tough.

I will certainly publicly apologize for likening him to Taylor Swift and anything else that was over the line.

Still not pacified or happy, but I’m dropping it. Cub and I disagree. Leave it at that.
2/5/2022 4:54 PM
Taylor Swift’s last couple albums were very good. Teaming up with dudes from The National was another in a long line of excellent career choices. No comment on her exes, of course, although I do doubt she pulled from the D2 pool very often.
2/5/2022 5:55 PM (edited)
Posted by HouseBert on 2/5/2022 4:54:00 PM (view original):
Posted by Trentonjoe on 2/5/2022 3:32:00 PM (view original):
Dudes just venting, let him vent.

Nobody is doing anything wrong.
That’s the long and short of it. I don’t deserve anything. I’ve had D1’s poach late for MUCH lesser talent. I’m not mad about the result so much as the unorthodoxy that led there. Finding a D1-level talent in D2 that gets snatched up by someone playing by different self-imposed (albeit legal) rules is just tough.

I will certainly publicly apologize for likening him to Taylor Swift and anything else that was over the line.

Still not pacified or happy, but I’m dropping it. Cub and I disagree. Leave it at that.
Understood. You're a great coach so cheers. Hopefully, I end up making use of any players. If not, I really sincerely apologize.
2/5/2022 5:51 PM
As has been mentioned, no one (95-100%) Cubcub is signing would ever make it to D3. They’d all get snatched up by D2 schools at least if they weren’t signed by Sac state or another D1.
2/5/2022 8:57 PM
Bert allow me to play my world’s smallest violin. I hope
it brings you comfort.
2/5/2022 9:42 PM
i get the frustration and i think cub's sentiment expressed re: not wanting to screw the d2 teams shows he gets it, too.

but i think its more important to be able to try interesting stuff... and for coaches to be able to pursue a wide range of strategies. plus the nature of d3 (especially in 3.0) is you get what's left over. if you don't want to be in that spot, you can play d1, otherwise it just goes with the territory.

so anyway, i sympathize, and take no issue with folks expressing the acute frustration that results. but i think its unambiguous that there is nothing wrong with what cub is doing.
2/6/2022 1:30 AM
Posted by HouseBert on 2/5/2022 12:37:00 PM (view original):
Posted by topdogggbm on 2/5/2022 3:42:00 AM (view original):
Posted by HouseBert on 2/4/2022 9:34:00 PM (view original):
I think this is a silly experiment with a coach who is obviously just bored with HD. He has three teams all of which he is in the first year with. Just look at his resumes in those worlds. It reads like a list of Taylor Swift's exes. Now I get that he's typically a nice guy. He posts a lot of helpful stuff, but is just stupid. I just want a normal HD experience at a lower level like I'm used to. Not necessarily easy, but normal. A CA D1 coach scouting D2 players in South Dakota so he can get his rocks off in a game that he used to find fun and challenging isn't normal.
Ya know, you're not wrong! It is a silly experiment. But that's what some guys here do. Not that it's bad or I'm singling anybody out. I've thought of silly things to try. Thus particular experiment just depends on what kinda recruits get generated, because the fact that a player is in a D2 pool doesn't mean that he's not D1 talent (looking at you Kilbourne, D2 Naismith, North Alabama from a few seasons back). So if the talent is there to sign, this is an easy one. If not, it'll be more difficult).

I've seen a press team "no defense" make the championship game (which might as well be a title because it's just one game that could've went either way). It was all high SPD, high ST, and all players with 40 DEF or less.

I don't hate this experiment tho. I think the promoting of it is what makes it silly to YOU. But as you can see there are others interested, and even one other coach that's trying it as well. This is what is basketball math nerds do!
It is a subjective and not objective. It’s affecting me so I’m naturally more bothered. Maybe he’s actually trying to be decent by not dunking exclusively on local D2s like TJ, but that still means dunking on someone else somewhere. I think we all know that, especially at D3 (which is exclusively my experience since returning to HD I know) one player can make a huge difference on title aspirations.

The fact that more coaches are doing it doesn’t make it better. My main point, which may be obscured by my overt bitterness, is these “experiments” don’t take place in a vacuum or “lab”. They affect real paying customers of a game of which retention has been a perpetual topic of interest. That may sound dramatic but merely present as factual. Maybe no one has issue but me. And maybe others wouldn’t care enough to comment. Maybe they’d just quit. IDK.

my other point is that the optics aren’t great. You may have hit the target that this public promotion is one thing that makes it seem worse subjectively. And the guy has jumped school to school, world to world and that is only obvious because of how active he is on forums etc.

I just feel caught up in a whim of a guy who has now admittedly given 10% chance of the most minimal “success” in one NT win. And it could theoretically cost other coaches players that could bring the highest degree of relative success in lower divisions. And he does abandon projects. See his YouTube series. Not hating, but just frustrated.

I get it if others aren’t bothered. I’m not saying they should be. I just feel a certain way and this is the way I’ve chosen to vent it.
I understand!
2/6/2022 1:20 PM
Dang, I went all in on a D2 guy and lost to another D1 school. Cub and I aren't the only D1 coaches dipping into the d2 pool.
2/7/2022 1:25 PM
Man, if I had a dollar for every time I heard a D2/D3 coach complain about a D1 coach "poaching" their recruit. The entitlement is real. The players may be broken up into their projected divisions, but it's still one big player pool. It's just a projection and the sim isn't all that great at them.

If you don't want to deal with other coaches poaching your targets, move yourself up to the top levels of this game. If you enjoy D3 and want to stay there, get used to the fact that it's just 1 pool and you're only going to sign the kids that D1 and D2 coaches pass over.

Also, as Benis has noted, there are several D1 teams looking at projected D2 players. This isn't just happening in one area. It's happening to all D2/D3 coaches and so you're not at a competitive disadvantage. It's a result of 140+ coaches in D1, and that probably isn't changing anytime soon.

Ok, I'm done with my annual rant where I look like an a-hole. I guess we all need to vent every now and again.
2/7/2022 2:15 PM
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Sac State Megathread: D1 success w/o D1 players? Topic

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