Obviously, any one individual event cannot be tied directly to the probability. But generally, if they are not working as the probabilities warrant, they need to be fixed.

If there anyway we can access the probabilities of battles for a given season? I would be happy to look at a season of battle numbers .. the probabilities and who won and put together a spreadsheet to see the results, if that data is available.

Posted by hughesjr on 3/7/2022 6:58:00 PM (view original):
Obviously, any one individual event cannot be tied directly to the probability. But generally, if they are not working as the probabilities warrant, they need to be fixed.

If there anyway we can access the probabilities of battles for a given season? I would be happy to look at a season of battle numbers .. the probabilities and who won and put together a spreadsheet to see the results, if that data is available.

Yes, this has been done. The probabilities work fine, it's a closed case. People don't realize that a 70-30 will only yield a different result than a 50-50 roll one in five times. It's a completely valid strategy to pool your resources so you get in two 30-70s instead of two 50-50s. And it's fair to expect to win one of those two 30-the 70s slightly more often than not. Losing a 75-25 is actually half as likely as losing a 50-50, but it's about 4 times more maddening.

That being said I couldn't agree with Wedgeva more that the coin-flip aspect of the game has been getting pretty bad as D1 has *really* filled up (every power school taken along with 150 total), which is probably why its time for a new world. The game will work better and it will provide excitement for the community.

Also, a quick point that is lost on a lot of people. Offering a ship/start/25 minutes is a *huge* amount of resources. I would estimate it's worth about 8-10 HVs, along with even more considering the wants to play modifier. And people underestimate the effectiveness of CVs as well... If you have an option to put all your resources on 1 guy, you'll get to put 20 HVs, 1 CV (worth 2.5 HVs), a ship, a start and 25 minutes on a single guy. That comes out to about 31 HVs. For a slightly less amount of money (assuming no AP to simplify, but you can just split it and my point stands), you can put 9 HVs, 1 CV, a ship, a start, 25 minutes on 2 guys. This comes out to about 20 HVs on 2 guys, or 40 HVs of effort total or about 30% more. And often, this will give you 2 30-70 rolls instead of 1 50-50.

I would say it is frustrating ... but not failing.

D1 (where the recruiting dice rolls dominate) has more participants than I can ever remember.

Posted by utthead on 3/7/2022 7:50:00 PM (view original):
I would say it is frustrating ... but not failing.

D1 (where the recruiting dice rolls dominate) has more participants than I can ever remember.

Yes, highest D1 numbers since I joined are right now mainly because of the new job change.

Posted by wedgeva on 3/7/2022 6:22:00 PM (view original):

The feeling I had about what a quality game HD Hoops was has finally lost its shine—because the recruiting process (i.e. coin toss) is not working, and it’s not fair! A player’s success in this game rest almost solely on his luck with the coin tosses! And it is further exacerbated by a coin toss the WIS keeps saying is totally random and but somehow consistently keeps rewarding top-notch recruits to teams that can’t even cross the 30% probability threshold because they can’t muster the required prestige, APs and recruiting funds to do so! In essence the process is punishing those teams that can! Believe me when you are constantly losing recruiting battles when you have a 70% or more probability of winning—this game gets old in a hurry! Do something please!

That it does. I had a "almost rage quit" moment in Rupp this season. Losing 3 rolls, and all of my cash, all in one cycle while having 5 openings, and a crappy pool. HD is weird. There's no way to really grasp how the odds shake out. Because we all face different scenarios and feel different based on what's happening to us. For example, my current random stupid thought is "I wonder if each world does something similar each season with rolls?". Like in Naismith, Rupp, and Crum I was like 1-11 as the very high team. But in Wooden i was 3-0 at only high. So this go 'round, is it favoring the high teams? It just seems like a season or two ago I was doing great things and winning rolls left and right. Now it's the opposite and all my teams suck. In another couple of seasons, I'll win a bunch of rolls and start thinking up something else.

But fact is, all views are likely wrong. And it's just what we're "trying" to see. It's not there!

Well .. it certainly sucks to loose a roll with you are 2/3 or above for probability. But, in reality, I do think it is a good thing that recruits do make random choices, so long as the 'probabilities' are correct. I can live with loosing sometimes and winning others.

Having played a lot before the random change for recruiting (when they always went with the odds), it was much less fun, unless you were at an A+ (+++super) team. Then it was quite easy to get almost whomever you wanted.

Posted by hughesjr on 3/8/2022 6:27:00 AM (view original):
Well .. it certainly sucks to loose a roll with you are 2/3 or above for probability. But, in reality, I do think it is a good thing that recruits do make random choices, so long as the 'probabilities' are correct. I can live with loosing sometimes and winning others.

Having played a lot before the random change for recruiting (when they always went with the odds), it was much less fun, unless you were at an A+ (+++super) team. Then it was quite easy to get almost whomever you wanted.

Yeah, the odds decision is a very good mechanic but at this time it's so difficult to set up backup options now that D1 is just so full.

Posted by cubcub113 on 3/8/2022 9:20:00 AM (view original):

Posted by hughesjr on 3/8/2022 6:27:00 AM (view original):
Well .. it certainly sucks to loose a roll with you are 2/3 or above for probability. But, in reality, I do think it is a good thing that recruits do make random choices, so long as the 'probabilities' are correct. I can live with loosing sometimes and winning others.

Having played a lot before the random change for recruiting (when they always went with the odds), it was much less fun, unless you were at an A+ (+++super) team. Then it was quite easy to get almost whomever you wanted.

Yeah, the odds decision is a very good mechanic but at this time it's so difficult to set up backup options now that D1 is just so full.

I think that makes it more fun .. everyone is at the same disadvantage.

It might make you try new strategies (2 six man classes, etc).

Although I am having issues finding 6 recruits in a new world during session 2 (Nebraska, Rupp).

Having the rolls be somewhat sporadic is great for the game! I agree. It HAS to be that way...... it just sucks when you go thru that cold streak. Just a necessary evil. I'm in no way against making the "rolls" be more exact or anything. It's great how it is.

the odds has really grown on me, too. i kinda hated it at first, but it just adds too much strategy. its overly harsh in recruiting to get no odds for 1% less effort, i think there are layers there as a result, its definitely less cookie cutter than d1 recruiting used to be. but the team building and coaching ramifications, that's the real winner in my book. whether it was high d1 or high d2 or high d3, in the old game, you had so much selection, so much agency over the shapes of players as a result. i like that now its a real struggle sometimes, a lot of overcoming adversity and making compromises.

plus i like the spreading of the wealth aspects, not the same schools getting the best classes every year, that's great as well.

I think it's frustrating for the most part, not because you got a bad roll, but becasue after you lose 1 or 2 rolls your entire recruiting session is now a complete waste because it's so hard to be able to find and compete for backups. And that probably means your entire next season is a complete waste.

I almost wish they would reduce the effect of APs so that once you've maxed out on a recruit with promise/20 HV/1 CV then it would be easier to throw your AP on someone else and position yourself to go after them if you lose a roll. Right now it feels like if you don't go 80 AP on guys every cycle that you're at a big disadvantage. Or give back 50% or your resources after you lose a roll. I'm sure these would cause other problems.

Or maybe base recruit generaiton on number of coaches. More coaches = more recruits.

i don't know that you were losing it - i wasn't even really looking at our positions as adversarial.

i do agree that its too hard to get decent backup options. i don't mind it too much, but it definitely feels to hardcore for the average coach. its just a blood bath out there. part of the problem is, i think we are all scared to upset the competitive balance of d1, if WIS adds more recruits, they very well overdo it and send us back to the times when a dozen 850 overall teams were around each season. i think that would be worse than the status quo. but i would like to see something done to make mediocre players more accessible.

i know i've said this before a bunch but my preferred solution... make RS2 a real session, as in, some non-signing cycles to kick it off, to give schools a chance to switch targets, and to move d2 schools a bit down the totem poll. maybe even generate some new mediocre recruits - not a ton, and not great ones. there's enough high end talent. i would personally like to see recruit gen tied to human population a bit so that the competitive balance isn't so vastly shifted by changes in the number of mid major coaches. that said, i am scared also if they tied all recruit gen to d1 pop, i think there's enough high end talent, its really the broadening of the base that i think makes sense there.