Coming into this draft, I didn’t have a specific strategy in mind. A couple of things I was fairly certain about though.
(1) As much as I wanted to try the calhoop strategy of going stud RP early, I knew that would really hurt me late as the position players and SPs started thinning out.
(2) RP1, RP2 and Bench are the three buckets that I have to wait on. I didn’t want to end up with default players at the key positions. I can survive with one default SP as long as I get four SPs with 1000+ innings.
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Pick 1.05
2018 Jacob deGrom (Mets)
With overall pick #5, I was hoping that Jake Arrieta would fall to me, but missed him by one pick. Ron Guidry was the best statistical SP available, but the Yankees are deep in talent. Ignoring the salary cap and draft order implications, George Brett was my math model’s choice (i.e., the biggest standard deviation difference between player and rest of team). But I wanted to keep my early pick status. I strongly considered Joe Horlen to knock out the White Sox but decided on Jacob deGrom due the slight talent advantage. After seeing ronthegenius select Horlen right after me makes me think I screwed this pick up. Right out of the chute, I am second-guessing myself. It won’t be the last time.
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Pick 2.09
1980 George Brett (Royals)
With some of the top RPs going at the end of round 1, I dropped down to pick 9. I was hoping Saberhagen or Bieber would still be here but both went a few picks before me. I considered both Joe Morgan and Ken Caminiti. But my math model pick (Brett) is still available. How can I pass him up again? I knew that would hurt me in the draft order AND I would need to make sure I got a decent backup 3B. But KC has some terrible players and I have to keep reminding myself, that later in the draft, I will be glad I don’t have to worry about getting stuck with guys like Frank White or Paul Splittorff. Ken Caminiti went a few picks after me and I immediately regretted my decision.
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Pick 3.22
1976 Frank Tanana (Angels)
Yep, the Brett pick dropped me from pick 9 to pick 22. Why didn’t I pick Caminiti? I figured out that I would’ve been able to draft Juan Marichal or Don Drysdale at pick 3.6 had I taken Caminiti instead of Brett. Crap. And of course, there was a big run on SP1 this round. At my pick, the top guys left at SP1’s were Palmer, McLain and Tanana. The Angels have the least amount of talent, so I went with Tanana. Plus, there was a slight chance that McLain or Scherzer will still be left next round. I probably should have just taken a stud hitter (instead of Tanana) as there were lots of studs sitting there, including Bonds (PIT), Belle, Betts, Lynn and B.Harper. But nope – I am playing the “long game” and hoping I can make up the talent disadvantage when others have to start drafting Royals and Angels.
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Pick 4.23
2018 Mookie Betts (Red Sox)
Both McLain and Scherzer went this round so forget about getting my Tiger. I have been eyeing Ryne Sandberg to knock off the Cubs and to get a top 2B but there are a plethora of really strong 2B available that I like, so I can wait at 2B. Randy Jones is available but he never does well for me and there are a bunch of SP2’s that I like, so I guess it’s time for one of those stud hitters. Bonds and Belle are gone, but Lynn, Betts and Harper are still left. The Red Sox talent is thinning out, so it’s between Lynn and Betts. I probably should’ve taken Lynn as he’s a lefty and plays defense better, but for some unknown reason, I went with Betts instead.
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Pick 5.23
1976 Randy Jones (Padres)
I am still picking near the end. Damn that Brett pick. I considered drafting a backup 3B (for Brett) which would move me up in the draft order but moving up at the expense of a using up a valuable pick doesn’t make much sense. I must save those Bench picks till the end. I still had Randy Jones in my team center as I strongly considered him last round. Just like Brett, my thought process is that if I almost took a guy a round before and he makes it back, then it’s a sign that I have to take him now. I almost took Sandberg here, but there are still many 2B that I like. Guess what – Sandberg, Alomar, Cano, Loretta and a bunch of other 2B all went off the board. Once again, I have buyer’s remorse on the Jones selection. Since 1950, there have been exactly 6 instances of a pitcher that had 200+ innings with a K/9 < 3 and an ERA < 3.00. Randy Jones has two of those seasons, including 1976. The last time was 1978. We’ll never see this again. I’m sure Jones will suck for me.
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Pick 6.23
2003 Marcus Giles (Braves)
Whatever strategy I may have had coming into the draft has basically changed to “see what everybody else is doing and adjust accordingly”. I would have preferred to take a stud catcher (Chris Hoiles) or stud outfielder (Billy Williams) here but needed to draft a 2B now before I missed getting a good one. I was debating between Jeff Kent, Marcus Giles and Chase Utley. I went with Giles due to his defense and the fact I might need to draft Daulton or Posey next round. I actually thought about waiting until much later and grabbing Detroit OF, Tony Phillips (who is A+/A+ at 2B) – which would allow me some flexibility with the Round 25 expansion player draft. Of course, ronthegenius grabbed him a few picks later, so that strategy would have horribly backfired. As usual, Ron is playing Chess, the rest of us are playing Checkers.
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Pick 7.24
2007 Victor Martinez (Indians)
I am officially picking last now. I need a SS, C, 1B and two OF. I really want Billy Williams or Jim Edmonds here, but if Chris Hoiles was available, I would’ve taken him. Sadly, footballmm11 grabbed him 5 picks in front of me. I looked at the remaining OF, SS and C and it’s clear I need to take a catcher now. Most of the remaining catchers are right-handed. There is one switch-hitter left and you know I love switch-hitters. I also like that Victor Martinez has 645 plate appearances so I don’t need a strong backup catcher. This pick does remove Omar Vizquel from my SS list though. At this point, the remaining shortstops aren’t that strong so I may finally get to draft Billy Williams in round 8.
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Pick 8.24
1972 Billy Williams (Cubs)
After multiple long stretches of zero picks on Monday, we finally got the draft moving again Tuesday morning. There are 4 or 5 shortstops left I can live with and are all about the same quality, so I am gambling that at least one will make it back in the next round. The best SP left is Stephen Strasburg, but that’s more of a luxury than a need. It’s really between 1B Prince Fielder and OF Billy Williams. I should take Fielder because Brewers don’t have a SS available, and taking Billy eliminates Ernie Banks from my SS options. But Ron Santo and Fergie Jenkins just got selected so I know the Cubs will be on people’s minds and Billy is the last really good Cubs player left. I love Billy’s offense, enough to live with his D- range in the OF. I now have three hitters with SLG% > .600 and my two weakest hitters (C, 2B) are slugging over .500. I am really hoping Prince Fielder makes it back, but also need to monitor the SS situation. At this point, pitchers aren’t even in consideration until I fill my starting batting positions.
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Pick 9.23
2021 Carlos Correa (Astros)
Prince Fielder is still left, but a bunch of shortstops went off the board and the guy I am targeting has now moved to the top of the list of those that remain. There are only 4 left that I can take, so as much as I’d love to roster Prince, I have to take Correa now. He has just one season in his performance history and that season, he had 21 + plays. Let’s hope he can repeat that. Of course, Prince Fielder went 9 picks later. I am now targeting switch-hitter Eddie Murray, but a bunch of people in front of me still need their 1B.
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Pick 10.22
1981 Kevin Saucier (Tigers)
Damn! Eddie Murray gets taken and there’s not really any other 1B left that I feel is worth a pick now. I can always move George Brett to 1B which gives me the flexibility to take a 1B or 3B in the expansion draft. I was strongly considering Adam Wainwright as my SP4 here or maybe stud RP1’s Blake Treinen or Joe Nathan. Sure enough, both Nathan and Treinen get taken. So now it’s either Gossage (NYY) or Saucier (Det). Since both njbigwig and redcped need a 1B, let’s make sure I draft ahead of them next round, so I go with Saucier to lower my salary and move ahead of my competition for 1B. Of course, redcped drafts a cheap RP to stay ahead of me. I’m sure that was no accident.
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Pick 11.19
1981 Rich Gossage (Yankees)
With the Saucier pick, I moved all the way up to pick 19. It looks like I can still wait on my starting 1B and since ’81 Gossage is still on the board, this was one an easy decision. I still need to draft my fourth SP from the SP2 group. Since I drafted a lot of SP1 innings with Randy Jones and Frank Tanana, I only need about 180 innings and can scrap my third SP2. Chris Short and Mike Boddicker are two guys I am looking at. I also still need to monitor the outfield position, since I still need one more starting OF.
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Pick 12.14
1964 Chris Short (Phillies)
Fourteenth is the highest I’ve selected since I drafted George Brett in round 2. A bunch of 1B went since my last pick, but miraculously, it worked better than I could have expected. I am now the only person who can draft Jason Thompson. I was going to wait on 1B anyway, but now I have the piece-of-mind knowing I won’t get docked the $3M penalty and Thompson is a guy I can live with at 1B. This is one of the main reasons Andrew McCutcheon lasted as long as he did (I couldn’t afford to lose any of my few remaining 1B options). This opens up my Round 25 options as I don’t necessarily need to draft a 1B. Maybe I can pick an OF instead if I don’t get a good third OF. Anyway, time to complete my starting staff with the best SP available. I thought about waiting another round and hoping Boddicker slipped, but I want to keep my options open for Al Bumbry.
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Pick 13.18
1988 Jose Canseco (Athletics)
Well, Bumbry went to njbigwig (not a surprise). Now I was hoping for either Jose Canseco, Ben Oglivie or one of the White Sox outfields (Dye/Ordonez). It’s tempting to wait on OF and grab somebody in Round 25, but I’m still not sure if I will draft high enough to get one of the OFs. I’ve also mapped out the rest of my picks for each franchise…. I have to figure out which order to take them. Since Dye went, I decided not to gamble and just grab the best OF remaining. The Athletics don’t have a lot of talent left, so I am very happy to get an above average OPS# outfielder this late in the draft. I don’t have great OF defense though. I should’ve taken Lynn over Betts.
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Round 14.20
1970 Ken Sanders (Brewers) 1998 Ugueth Urbina (Expos)
Although I didn’t need him, I wanted Mike Boddicker here. I don’t need to use my fifth SP, but I wanted a cheap guy to help me move up in the round 25 expansion draft. Only one cheap SP2 left, Jonathan Sanchez from SF. But he’s not good, so I hate to waste a pick on him now. Nope – it’s time to get more relief pitching. I have this theory that the better my relievers are, the less likely I am to blow a 4-run 9th-inning lead. I know, it’s really just a theory and there’s no proof this is actually true. EDIT: I wrote this paragraph assuming I would get Sanders. The only person in front of me who could take a Brewer (redcped) took the guy I wanted, so thanks for that. I hated to use my Expos pick here (I was eyeing Bret Barberie to back up George Brett), but Urbina was the best left.
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Round 15.17
1995 Dean Palmer (Rangers)
This pick was a little premature. Although Palmer is a stud (.336/.448/.613 in 164 PA), I should have waited as there were other good 3B bench players that I could have taken, much later. I should have taken Dick Hall here. I needed a RP2 with decent innings, considering all three of my RP1’s had fewer than 75 IPs. Hall almost made it all the way back to me. Then nocomm999 crushed my dreams by taking Hall right before me.
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Round 16.13
2020 Raisel Iglesias
I was at the Eagles concert when I saw that I had lost out on Dick Hall. I didn’t want to hold things up, and I had very little phone battery left, so I was kind of rushing to make this pick. I knew I was taking a RP2, and I couldn’t really afford to take a guy with 35-40 innings (which is why I passed on Doug Rau). I strongly considered Jason Isringhausen, but I knew the Cardinals had a lot of good choices left, so I went with some guy I’ve never used before. Had I had more time to research, I probably would have taken Steve Howe because the Reds also have a lot of good bench hitters. And this pick removed Jim Maloney from my SP2 options, making it more likely I could get stuck.
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Round 17.10
2007 Troy Percival
Yep, I just said that I passed on Rau because I needed innings. So what do I do the next round? I take a guy with 40 innings. It really came down to Percival vs. Pete Ladd (who has 50 IPs). The Brewers have Fetters and Schroeder still available, so I went with the higher quality RP instead of the guy with 10 more innings. There is almost no chance that Ladd makes it back to me. I am also gambling that Sanchez is still there in the next round. Losing Maloney hurt, as I only have Viola and Sanchez as eligible SP2 left to take. I may need to take Sanchez next round, which will move me up in the expansion draft.
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Round 18.09
1992 Mike Fetters (Brewers)
I really struggled with this pick. If I needed the starting innings, I would have taken my SP2, Jonathan Sanchez here. His only value is that I save $2M+ in salary and move up a few picks in the Expansion draft. My starting lineup is strong enough, so it’s looking more and more likely that I will take a relief pitcher in round 25, and I think those guys will be available later in the draft. Adding a $5M player really hurts my draft position now, and I want to draft the RP and bench hitters that will actually help me. The reason I passed on Ladd last round was to grab a Brewer this round. As tempting as it was to take the Bill Schoeder, I just didn’t need him. So I went with the best RP available to me. My starting lineup and 10-man pitching staff is set. From here on out, it’s bench players. And I want to get my first choices. Need to figure out the order which to take them.
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Round 19.09
1975 Phil Roof (Twins)
An interest twist. Chisock grabbed Sanchez (he wanted to move up in the draft order too) and mpitt76 grabbed Viola, so I am now locked into needing a default SP2. Without the Viola pick, I probably would have waited on using my Twins selection this early. Instead, I have some flexibility now. I was going to take Steve Yeager as my backup catcher, but LA has more pinch hitter options than the Twins, so I grab Phil Roof this round. Had I known for sure that Sanchez & Viola would have been selected, I would have gone Bill Schroeder at catcher last round, then selected one of the Twins RPs.
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Round 20.10
2002 Mike Kinkade (Dodgers)
Going into this round, I still had the Dodgers, White Sox, Orioles & Giants to select from (plus the Pirates’ Jason Thompson as my starting 1B). I need some OF plate appearances and I am looking at either the Orioles’ Jack Voigt or the White Sox’ Tony Phillips or Alejandro De Aza. I can wait another round for that need. So this round, let’s get the best pinch hitter available. Kinkade only has 60 PA, but with a slash line of .382 / .482 / .586, he’ll be using all of them and then some. Hoping one of the White Sox outfielders makes it back to me.
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Round 21.07
2011 Alejandro De Aza (White Sox)
My decision to punt my third SP2 is paying off. I started the run on the Dodgers bench guys, and now started the run on White Sox bench guys. Had I drafted my third SP2, I would have missed the guys I wanted. Instead, I am getting every single bench guy I have targeted. I chose De Aza over Tony Phillips because his defense is a bit better and I will need somebody to spell Billy Williams D- range.
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Round 22.07
1997 Aaron Ledesma (Orioles)
Once again, I get my pick of the litter on the Orioles bench guys. I take a great pinch hitter, Ledesma. My four bench guys (Palmer, Kinkade, De Aza & Ledesma) totals are 499 PA, .342 / .433 / .553. And I'm going to use all 499 of those plate appearances.
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Round 23.06
1982 Jason Thompson (Pirates)
As I mentioned earlier, I was fortunate to be able to wait on this position, when a 1B run eliminated everybody else’s Pittsburgh option. This type of luck helps me build a strong bullpen and bench. Never used Thompson before but his performance history isn't too bad for a $5.2 million 1B (his avg RC = 110, in 15 seasons). He might have been the last 1B taken, but I bet he won't be the worst statistically.
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Round 24
2014 R.A. Dickey (Deafult SP2)
I selected Dickey over Brian Anderson because Dickey is right handed and a bit better quality. The extra $300K doesn’t bother me. He’ll be used strictly in mop-up duty only. But if I end up taking a hitter in the Expansion draft, I may need to start Dickey a few times, since I only have 1422 *good* innings. EDIT: I took a pitcher, so Dickey won't ever start a game.
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Round 25.17
2013 Jose Fernandez (Expansion)
Just for fun, I checked to see what my Round 25 draft position would have been had I drafted Sanchez and not wasted $2.5 million on my default SP2. I would have moved all the way to pick 16. LOL - no regrets. For about the last 10 rounds, I knew I was taking a pitcher here, due to my draft position. Going in, I hoped that Jose Fernandez would make it to me, but would’ve been fine taking McGee, Balfour or Henke. The only downside to this pick was that I am now stuck in a division with redcped, njbigwig and pedrocerrano, all very sharp WIS players.
Hitting Totals: 5740 PA, .319 / .400 / .558 (includes all four bench hitters)
Pitching Totals: 1595 IP, 2.17 ERA, .202 OAV, 0.98 WHIP, 0.48 HR/9 (excluding default SP2)
Comments: I didn’t calculate everybody else’s stats so really have no basis for comparison, but on the surface, I am not seeing a lot of weaknesses with this team. I don’t really have a stud SP and everybody knows that Frank Tanana and Randy Jones have disappointed many owners before me. Hoping my good offense, strong bench and solid bullpen can be enough. But in this tough division, my upside may only be 86-87 wins, which isn’t good enough to win the division.
Key Takeaways from the Draft:
(1) Don't waste a pick on a bench player early. Those who did, just to move up in the order, got stuck pretty quickly
(2) Position flexibility is critical. Having Brett able to play 1B allowed me to blow off the starting 1B postition.
(3) Draft enough innings from four of the five SPs, allowing that fifth pitcher to be picked late (or defaulted)
(4) In middle-to-late stages of the draft, see which franchises have multiple Bench/RP options left, and don't pick from those franchises until very late.
(5) Don't draft over-priced studs, unless they are true difference makers. '95 Maddux = Difference Maker. '80 Brett = Not a difference maker.