Division From Snell
(Note that I wrote all this round by round to capture my thinking at the time, and then I saved you some tedium and trimmed some of the fat. I acknowledge it remains tedium for almost everyone still, however if you need to kill a few minutes do read on a bit.)
Initial thoughts: When I selected players to represent the Expos/Nats franchise, I went for the best possible seasons for the choices I made. I felt like that roster should be pretty competitive if fielded against any of the ones we end up with. It had a $121M payroll for 24 players, with an offense slashing .318/.391/.546. The team ERA was 2.11 with a WHIP of 0.98. At the very least, it gave me a baseline to compare against what I end up with.
In building out my draft sheets, I noticed that most owners seem to have taken my basic approach. But a few of you seemed to throw poison pills into the draft for entertainment, selecting in some cases one of the worst options for a player or at least only grabbing maybe their 2nd or 3rd best season. Some teams clearly didn’t have great choices at spots, or their true stars really never had a great season that fit the parameters either. We all have the same pool ultimately, but it does make some franchises more critical to select from earlier if possible. Let’s just call this the “Someone Winds Up With Wally Joyner Playing 1B Factor.”
Post-draft note: No one wound up with Joyner! I nearly did, though.
Round 1, Pick 19: SP1 2009 Tim Lincecum, Giants
The strategy here was to take the best SP with the lowest reasonable salary to move up near the top in Round 2 and take a second but more expensive pitcher then. There was really no one else in the SP1 group I liked as a 1st pick with a sub-$10M salary.
Round 2, Pick 6: SP2 1989 Bret Saberhagen, Royals
I had Saberhagen targeted from the outset and was really pleased he was still there. Like the Freak, his lower HR/9 rate will come in handy in a league likely to be loaded with sluggers. Neither guy walks too many either. At this point, even though I missed out on the very top SP I can at least roll out a top two who keep me competitive.
Round 3, Pick 7: SP1 1964 Don Drysdale, Dodgers
I was definitely going to take a hitter here, and my top choice was Garciaparra … whom brm_fan snagged 4 picks ahead of me. I then looked hard at position scarcity and how deep I felt comfortable falling at each lineup spot. I went to bed with Cal Ripken as my next target because the offensive dropoff at SS is steep and quite a few middling guys aren’t even great with the glove either. … But Drysdale kept staring at me, with so many of the big-inning SP1 choices left looking rather average once you get past the top 20 or so. Also, the Dodgers choices at almost every offensive position left are sub-par (early pick Piazza notably the exception). I say that even as a huge fan who thought Fernando and Orel were gifts from the gods at the time, but I didn’t really want to rely on either in this league.
Taking a 3rd SP already didn’t feel like a great strategy, but … now I have over 800 innings of top-tier starters at least and can blow off the 5th SP entirely. My gut tells me this was the right pick even if it veers from the plan. We’ll see.
Round 4, Pick 13: SS 1991 Cal Ripken Jr., Orioles
I spent a rough 1.25 rounds waiting to see if I’d be able to nab a great SS or C, and as all my top choices remained on the board I kept waiting for the coach to turn back into a pumpkin. I was convinced mpitt76 was going to take Ripken the pick before me, but somehow the second hand stayed a notch before midnight and I wound up landing him after all.
I don’t think too much needs to be said about Cal. But with few A+ range guys in this draft who can hit at all and most of the top offensive options a bit shaky in the field, his A/B glove pairs darn well with one of the top few OPS choices. Pretty thrilled to get him, and now I just hope he proves worth it.
Round 5, Pick 18: C 1998 Mike Piazza, Mets
My backup choice if Ripken was gone last round was Piazza. So color me pretty stunned for the second round in a row that 30-some picks later I could still get my targeted player. Maybe I’m playing this wrong, but I think there’s still a ton of 1B and OF talent out there but dwindling really good offensive players at the other positions. I was watching the run on the top OF go and was tempted to jump in and grab someone, but the opportunity cost was higher if I let Piazza go and wound up with a much worse hitter behind the plate. The D+ arm is a mild concern, but overall this doesn’t look like a super base-stealing league. ‘66 Torre had about the same slash line, but his A+ arm would have cost almost $2M more to get 20% better at throwing out runners. I liked how taking a sub-$6M player would vault me back up to the top 10 picks next round, too. If Piazza allows 200+ SB, someone please remind me of this miscalculation.
Round 6, Pick 10: 2B 2010 Robinson Cano, Yankees
One of my mottos in a draft like this is “it’s better to be at the start of a run than the back,” and the 2B run most definitely started with an Alomar going a few picks before me. There were 10 2B taken in the next 27 picks (Sandberg, Molitor, Vidro, Loretta, Giles, Utley, Pedroia, and Tony Phillips, whom I’m expecting ronthegenius to shift over there). I got the second of the 10 here, and I’m really glad I didn’t wait.
I was trying to weigh scarcity at 2B and 3B, positions I felt there were only a few players I really wanted, vs. getting a much better bat at 1B or OF. A few of my top OF targets were taken earlier in the round (including O’Neill and Puckett), and I kept looking at the depth of the position and feeling confident I’d still have a very good OF even if I waited. I also started thinking about Round 25, where a few really good 1B and OF are available that might be lower on other teams’ priority lists (Post-draft note: Boy was I wrong about that!). I expect the SP and MI to be most prized there (Post-draft note: Boy was I wrong about that, too!).
I went with Cano over Sandberg or Giles largely for the defense (A+/A to pair with Cal’s A/B up the middle) and lefty bat. With Ripken and Piazza already in the lineup and 3B being a very likely RH bat as well, I was worried about balance. I also took Sandberg early in a draft like this a couple years ago and got a very blah performance out of him, unfortunately. His speed and glove were hard to pass up, but the L/R thing weighed a lot on me. A downside to this pick is having to scratch Mattingly off my 1B list, and he was my top remaining choice. Not many high average hitters left, and I’m trying to avoid one-dimensional hitters. The upside is now I have covered the weakest offensive positions with three .900+ OPS# hitters, ensuring a deep lineup even if I’m lacking a thunderous bat in there.
Round 7, Pick 17: OF 2004 Jim Edmonds, Cardinals
I had settled this round on getting a LH-hitting outfielder, because there frankly were few left on my available list worth having. Potential CF who can hit were also dwindling, and I’m still pretty worried about getting anyone decent there. This pick came down to Edmonds or Billy Williams. I preferred Willams as a more balanced hitter with high average, but Edmonds won out on defense and speed and also a higher OPS#. With B range, he can be my CF if I run out of other options or just be an above-average RF if I do. And with A/C ratings at 1B, he can even shift there if I get a great OF in Round 25.
I’m very likely to wind up with RH bats now in my other OF spots and 3B, so getting the LH in there was critical here. With half my lineup set and a .319/.390/.575 slash line so far, I feel pretty good considering I started with three pitchers.
Round 8, Pick 21: 3B 1966 Ron Santo, Cubs
We had a bit of a lull in the draft at this juncture, so I did a lot of overthinking. In my mind I had already written my analysis of why I was picking Mike Trout here -- and regretting it. Best A+ option left to play CF, fills Angels spot, still a very solid OPS# even if it’s like his worst season, blah blah blah. Also, he's never done squat for me any time I’ve used him, even his best seasons. But it was a done deal in my head that I’d take him or McCutchen to play CF. I would be happy with any of the remaining 3B on my list one way or another … but I had to get that CF now, I had decided firmly.
Then I drove to work and saw that Schmidt went off the board a few picks before me, and it all unraveled instantly as I sat in my car in the parking lot already late and getting later (Ed. note: my boss gets in later than I do, so she was none the wiser -- also I wrote most of this during my shifts, and she doesn't know that either). I’d been eyeing Santo since the earliest rounds, and he’s one of my favorite 3B in the sim. I’m irresistibly drawn to his range, ability to get on base, and solid power. There certainly were good alternatives left to me, including a great hitting but no glove Perez, solid Beltre, and a somewhat one-dimensional but not too bad Glaus. But I saw the dominoes falling if I went with Trout (eliminating Glaus as an option) and then those guys all getting picked before I draft again. And then I’m sitting here with Trout in center and Tim Wallach or Robin Ventura and wondering where I went wrong.
Santo slashes an adjusted .315/.420/.537 and instantly becomes my 2nd-best hitter while giving me three very good infield gloves. No speed at all, like the rest of my team alas. But with 62.5% of my lineup now set and a (raw) slash of .317/.394/.568, I’m feeling like we can generate runs with a lot of walks and power up and down the lineup pretty well.
Who knows? Maybe one of those CF will last until my next pick after all. Or I’ll change my mind again. (Spoiler alert: I did)
Round 9, Pick 20: OF 1991 Manny Ramirez, Indians
Trout finally went but McCutchen was still on the board for me if I wanted to acquire, you know, someone who got on base with speed and could play center field. But who needs those pesky things when there’s a monster Manny season just dangling out there begging to be drafted? Yeah, I will end up with either a Round 25 pick or Edmonds in CF most likely now, and I’ll probably take someone later in the draft who’s at the bottom of the OF ranks as the fill-in or defensive replacement … unless I can get Cutch still somehow.
In the meantime, the lineup gets deeper and scarier with Manny in the middle of it. With 6 starters in place, I’ve got 211 homers and a .320/.402/.582 slash line. I’m starting to worry that there isn’t near enough pitching in this league to counteract these lineups and it might be time to get a bullpen. Picking late again next round so I have another wait ahead, but the plan is for relievers the next round or maybe two.
Round 10, Pick 21: RP2 2018 Sean Doolittle, Expos (Nats)
The time arrived to start building a bullpen, I felt … as did several others. In fact, my top two targets (Nathan and Treinen) went in the two picks immediately preceding mine (Post-draft note: Clearly I was not alone here). I decided to grab the best RP2 on the table, a fairly unhittable Doolittle with a sub-1 ERC# to close out games. I definitely need at least 2 other really good RP in this league so I might be shopping this aisle for a couple more rounds. My lower salary pick moved me up all of 3 spots next round, alas. Gotta hope more people go elsewhere and don’t grab the guys atop my list again.
Round 11, Pick 18: RP1 2007 Heath Bell, Padres
I almost took Bell in the previous round, so I was really pleased he lasted. I’m building at least a competitive bullpen now as his 93 innings of 1.55 ERC# and low HR/9 should make him a strong setup guy. Ideally I get 2 more quality RP to feel like I can navigate the back ends of games without too much disaster.
I moved up 7 spots in the next round, which helps keep options open. With so many priorities to fill now, each pick knocks down other dominoes in my plans and I’m playing 5-D chess with myself here at times. Now I’m mixing my game metaphors. Yowza. Also, maybe I should do some work ...
Round 12, Pick 11: OF 2012 Andrew McCutchen, Pirates
Astute readers (Ed. note: I do appreciate you! Assuming any of you got this far, that is) will note Cutch was first mentioned in Round 8’s writeup. He’s been on my short list for so long I really can’t believe I wound up actually getting him. This pick came down to SP2 Chris Short, RP1 Billy Wagner or Cutch. Short (Ed. note: He went to schwarze a few picks later, so that kept me from being cursed a third time in his writeup) was by far my best remaining 4th SP option, but I don’t need a full season of starts from that spot and can handle dropping there.
Cutch fills a big lineup void: He can lead off, he has speed, and his glove is solid for CF. The entire rest of my team is slow, so with OBPs fairly similar at least I can get a guy at the top of the lineup with wheels now. His stat line doesn’t blow you away, but he does everything well, just none of it exceptionally. He moves my lineup’s slash to .321/.402/.578 with 7 spots locked, and that works for me.
Now, as for the other challenges developing … the SP2 pool is drying up quickly and even though I probably only need 15-20 starts there it’s going to be with a subpar choice, clearly. And the final SP I have to take will likely be a long man so I’ll get whoever fits.
It’s clear now I’ll be stuck with Wally Joyner because at this point only 3 teams need a 1B and the other two already have an Angel. So that means my Round 25 plan is locked in to draft the best 1B or OF and shift Edmonds as needed. (Post-draft note: I hadn’t counted on anyone defaulting at 1B so the disaster didn’t materialize)
Round 13, Pick 19: RP2 1998 Tom Gordon, Red Sox
All the SP2 choices I really would have liked were gone, so it seemed like a good time to get that 3rd top RP. The best remaining ERC# pitchers are all in the RP2 group, though several are low inning guys. Gordon’s 80 innings of 1.54 ERC# aren’t the best possible innings here, but the bulk makes them appealing because I won’t get as much quality with my RP1 choices. Also, the Red Sox didn’t have anyone else in a category I really needed to fill, so it was better to take him than someone from one of the few teams with a SP2 left that I will need to draft.
Round 14, Pick 11: RP1 1970 Ken Sanders, Brewers
I didn’t have any Brewers targeted anywhere else, and Sanders is one my best remaining RP1 options at this point. There are better RP2 choices on the board still, but this pick doesn’t tie my hands at any other positions either. I really like his 0.08 HR/9 rate, and this gives me 4 darn good relievers at this point.
As for other palace intrigue, I’ve realized my salary is looking to be on the higher end and I still have to load up with two garbage SP2 guys who will bloat me further. This means my options in R25 might end up being much more limited and maybe all the 1B/OF will be gone before I pick. At this stage there are 3 owners who still need a 1B: me, ff09, and schwarze. Ff09 has no possible picks, however, and is stuck with Carlos Pena. I can still take Hrbek or be left with Joyner. Schwarze can still take Hrbek or Jason Thompson. My fear is schwarze takes Hrbek to force me to Joyner, which gives me a real need for that R25 upgrade. But if I take Hrbek first, he can settle for Thompson and we both remain flexible. How long do I wait to see if he acts first, though? Tough call …
(Post-draft note: Turns out while I was worried about schwarze tying my hands, I took the guy he really wanted here instead. I’m guessing he wishes he’d taken revenge by snatching Hrbek.)
Round 15, Pick 10: RP2 1964 Bill Henry, Reds
At this stage of the draft, I felt it was better to take a RP who can help my team rather than one of a few mediocre SP left to fill out my rotation. Yeah, this did take a Reds pitcher, Maloney, off the board, but it’s not like he’s really worth having anyway. My only trick is keeping two different franchise spots open to get my last two SP, and I’m down to 5. I almost have to take one next round just to avoid getting stuck somehow.
Henry adds a 5th strong arm to my bullpen and a second lefty, which is helpful. His 1.45 ERC# for 52 innings provide depth I think will be critical down there.
(Post-draft note: Maloney wound up making it to the very last round because no one else could take him, and I got stuck with a default player. I wonder if that made the difference between being in the division from hell or not? Of course, by drafting Snell I would have pushed him to a LR role anyway.)
Round 16, Pick 9: SP2 2002 Barry Zito, Athletics
The time arrived to secure my second SP2 before my options dried up. It was only a question of whether it would be Zito or Dave Stewart to take my A’s spot. Only four franchises left I can take an SP2 from! If everything else breaks well for me (i.e., getting Hrbek at 1b), I can take one of the two Angels SP2 options to fill out this position. But if schwarze nabs Hrbek (he jumped me in the draft order, so now I’m nervous), at least there are still Twins and Rangers SP2 options left to avoid getting stuck there. Still, that all requires two more picks to go my way, and that’s no assurance. Also, my salary is getting really high and I’ll probably draft really late in R25 and can’t count on anything there.
Oh, and as for Zito … well hopefully he only has to make about 15 starts and doesn’t hurt me too much. You’ve got to have some weaknesses in this league. My bench will be another one, as almost all the best available guys left are on teams I can’t use. The 107 PA McGwire was one of them, but now I can’t have another A’s player. Oh well.
Round 17, Pick 17: 1B 1984 Kent Hrbek, Twins
I couldn’t wait any longer to make this pick. I’m already low in the draft order, but I think that matters less as everyone has limited spots and teams left to choose from anyway. If I could have picked a cheap bench player and vaulted back ahead of schwarze here, I would have postponed this pick another round. But the ripple effects of losing out on Hrbek as an option could have left me weaker later, so it’s best to lock him down now. This means I will almost certainly take an Angels SP2 in the next round because I’ll be down to so few possibilities there.
Hrbek is certainly not terrible (.311/.385/.514 normalized) and will be my No. 8 hitter most likely. Like the rest of my team, he’s got power, a solid glove and no speed. This team will be an Earl Weaver special, aiming for a lot of 3-run homers and eschewing pesky things like base stealing and bunting while eking out walks and having a dangerous bat in every spot. Might even be time to start thinking about the ballpark that suits this group best.
Round 18, Pick 18: Bench 1984 Mike Brown, Angels
Cue up “The Gambler,” folks. I needed either Finley or Lackey to stay on the board to give me the SP2 options I needed or else be locked into Kenny Rogers. But both Angels went in between my 17th and 18th picks, and that means only I can take Rogers but I also can’t take anyone else there. Why is this so bad? Well, because the last two non-Rangers I could take at RP1, John Hiller and Mark Wohlers, also went back-to-back at the end of this round. Which means I gambled in taking Brown instead of the one remaining Angel at RP1, and now I’m stuck having to use one of the punishment players. So welcome aboard, Brian Fuentes? Yikes!
On the plus side, Brown is a solid bat off the bench (.855 OPS#), and I’m nearly out of decent options for a useful PH at this point. So at least I got my Angel with some value, and he’s also not particularly pricey for a bench guy.
Round 19, Pick 17: Backup C 1986 Ron Karkovice, White Sox
The options started to thin rapidly for me at this spot, even though more than half the owners still need to take their C2. As the round started, I could only take 4 of the 16 still available. Not wanting a second penalty, I took the best remaining option here (.745 OPS# isn’t saying much, though he is half a million cheaper than the other guys). This leaves only bench positions to fill the next three rounds, with four franchises to choose from due to my stuck position elsewhere. It seems I should be able to avoid getting stuck twice if I select carefully, and then I can draft my remaining pitchers in the last two rounds.
Round 20, Pick 16: Bench 1983 Jerry Mumphrey, Astros
There were only two Astros left in the bench pool at this point, and even though I didn’t really want to spend $1.9M on a bench player, Mumphrey ticks off a few boxes. He’s a switch hitter with decent speed and a great glove to back up Manny in the OF, and a .340 hitter to boot. This does put me with two backup outfielders now, and increasingly it looks like I won’t have anyone in reserve at 2B, SS, or 3B … but that doesn’t matter too much since all my starters can go without rest all season, and none needs a defensive replacement either. Of course they’re slow as dirt and can’t be run for either. Oh well.
Round 21, Pick 16: Bench 1971 Greg Luzinski, Phillies
Da Bull assures that I won’t get stuck on the bench players, as I am at least guaranteed one of the remaining Braves and possibly a Tiger option even. Not that I really needed another slow righty hitter, but Luzinski only played 1B this season and actually will make a good platoon bat against LH starters. His stats are pretty close to Hrbek’s. So now it’s just a question of whether I get a 1B/OF in R25 and render this pointless or not.
Round 22, Pick 16: Bench 1979 Eddie Miller, Braves
This final choice came down to two speedy outfielders, Miller and Gary Pettis. Miller got the nod for the A+ range, .300 average, and better base stealing percentage. He can be used to run for some of my slower guys and take over late in games for Manny.
Round 23, Pick 16: SP2 1985 Kenny Rogers, Rangers
Well, I could only draft a Ranger at SP2 or RP1 at this stage, so it was a matter of which combination of pitcher and default choice (plus penalty) to go with. Of the 72 pitchers in this group, Rogers has the worst ERC# at 3.35. The two Rangers RP available to me, Benoit and Darwin, actually are a bit better. But in no case are any of these guys anything but innings fillers, so I went with the less costly option to try to keep the penalty down and the salary lower for the final round draft.
Round 24, Pick 16: RP1 Brian Fuentes, Default
He’ll join Rogers as long relievers/mopups as I have 1,410 innings of useful pitching available and shouldn’t need a whole lot from these guys.
Pending that 25th player, I’ve got 5950 PA with a .317/.396/.557 slash and 284 homers and B+/B+ defense. I’m quite pleased with the lineup despite the lack of speed. I don’t feel the need to upgrade in the final round now.
Projected lineup, with OPS# and normalized slash:
CF R McCutchen .950 (.332/.406/.544)
RF L Edmonds 1.039 (.301/.416/.623)
LF R Ramirez 1.068 (.327/.432/.636)
3B R Santo .958 (.315/.420/.537)
C R Piazza .945 (.328/.389/.556)
2B L Cano .902 (.321/.381/.521)
SS R Ripken .934 (.324/.374/.560)
1B L Hrbek .899 (.311/.385/.514)
Round 25, Pick 18: 2018 Blake Snell, Rays
I was genuinely surprised how quickly so many hitters went off the board in this round and how few pitchers were gone by the time I picked. I had already shifted away from expecting to upgrade my lineup, though Stanton definitely would have qualified if I wanted to gain 100 points of OPS and become more righty-heavy. As it neared me and I saw that either Jose Fernandez or Snell might be left, I knew it would be hard to pass on them. Getting 200 much better innings in my rotation and shifting Zito to LR and Rogers/Fuentes to irrelevant definitely improves this pitching staff significantly.
But then there was the pesky math of the salary totals and the division alignment to consider. If I took Grant Balfour, I could have jumped a couple spots and been close to assured of escaping the division with guys who usually beat me. Oh that was very tempting … but then I wondered if other owners might shift around after me and leave me there anyway and I’d have passed up an extra 130 innings of upgrade. I decided to let the chips fall and take the guy who improved me the most. So, welcome to a brutal division in what I also think is going to be the tougher league generally. Just getting a wild card will be a victory now.
Rotation:
RH Saberhagen 263 IP, 1.90 ERC#, 0.96 WHIP#, 0.41 HR/9#
RH Drysdale 322, 2.03, 1.01, 0.39
RH Lincecum 225, 2.05, 1.04, 0.31
LH Snell, 181, 1.89, 1.00, 0.55
Key bullpen:
RH Bell 93 IP, 1.55 ERC#, 0.94 WHIP#, 0.21 HR/9#
RH Sanders 93, 1.68, 0.98, 0.08
LH Doolittle 45, 0.93, 0.62, 0.44
LH Henry 52, 1.45, 0.87, 0.32
RH Gordon 80, 1.54, 0.98, 0.16