1) I think arb is correct here; this happens occasionally in MLB with Japanese players.
2) I expect his demand will depend on service time, OVR, and some random factors, just like any other arb-eligible player.

I believe this is right. When I first started, I signed a pitcher with no major league time to a 5 year deal (I was enamored with the false projected ratings lol, i learned the hard way). I did give him a mutual option in the 5th year. He actually declined his 5th year mutual, at which point he went to arbitration. I had wised up but that point, and cut him to end that debacle haha.

If a player refuses to resign with a team because they took him to arbitration 3 times, what are the odds that player would resign with a team that trades for him? Or is he headed for FA no matter what?

Posted by mborden308 on 4/7/2022 8:01:00 PM (view original):
If a player refuses to resign with a team because they took him to arbitration 3 times, what are the odds that player would resign with a team that trades for him? Or is he headed for FA no matter what?

I asked this question in a separate thread several weeks ago; consensus was most but not all of the time the guy will re-sign with the new team. And the guy I asked about did re-sign with the new team I sent him to.

Posted by mborden308 on 4/7/2022 8:01:00 PM (view original):
If a player refuses to resign with a team because they took him to arbitration 3 times, what are the odds that player would resign with a team that trades for him? Or is he headed for FA no matter what?

Its fairly often the guy will resign with the new team because they aren't the one that Arb'ed him 3 times. That being said, if you are trading for the player 'buyer beware'.

I feel like this gets asked all the time. Now it’s my turn. What do you have to offer a departing free agent that says ‘Unless you really surprise me i’m filing for FA’. I feel like it was somewhere between 10% and 25% over asking but can’t remember exactly what it was.

Posted by hockey1984 on 4/11/2022 9:20:00 AM (view original):
I feel like this gets asked all the time. Now it’s my turn. What do you have to offer a departing free agent that says ‘Unless you really surprise me i’m filing for FA’. I feel like it was somewhere between 10% and 25% over asking but can’t remember exactly what it was.

1.5x, I'm pretty sure.

Posted by dedelman on 4/11/2022 2:10:00 PM (view original):

Posted by hockey1984 on 4/11/2022 9:20:00 AM (view original):
I feel like this gets asked all the time. Now it’s my turn. What do you have to offer a departing free agent that says ‘Unless you really surprise me i’m filing for FA’. I feel like it was somewhere between 10% and 25% over asking but can’t remember exactly what it was.

1.5x, I'm pretty sure.

I have not had an opportunity to try this. It seems like every time I think I'll have a chance to try it, I get hit with the future payroll restriction or uneven contract rule. If this works, please let us know.

Posted by dedelman on 4/11/2022 2:10:00 PM (view original):

Posted by hockey1984 on 4/11/2022 9:20:00 AM (view original):
I feel like this gets asked all the time. Now it’s my turn. What do you have to offer a departing free agent that says ‘Unless you really surprise me i’m filing for FA’. I feel like it was somewhere between 10% and 25% over asking but can’t remember exactly what it was.

1.5x, I'm pretty sure.

I have definitely read 1.5x a number of times before but not had a chance to try it either

To be clear-- 1.5x definitely works, I've done it a couple of times. I don't think you can get away with less but I'm only "pretty sure" about that.

I had to take a hard pass. 1.5 was too much for either of the guys I wanted to keep.

then they both went to FA and no one wanted them so I got them both for less then their innital ask anyways.

I'm thinking of using it more on a stud pitcher

Oh for sure. It’s all about value for each dollar.

Alex Hunter : https://www.whatifsports.com/hbd/Pages/Popups/PlayerRatings.aspx?pid=9774649

was not worth $7.2 million a year. But he is worth 4.8.

I should have tried it on Thumper, but I didn't know it worked.

Does this also work on the guy that says he's filing for free-agency no matter what, or does it specifically have to read the above language?

‘Unless you really surprise me i’m filing for FA’.

The guy who says he's filing no matter what, is filing, no matter what.