Has anyone ever seen a team with the highest chance win a 3 way roll?

Genuine question. Would love a screenshot.

Legend tells of a team winning a 3-way with 50%. It all started on a cold February night. Full moon. The coach draws a circle on the creaky wooden floor with chalk, surrounded by candles. Right before the signing cycle, he summons the spirit of Bajiani, the pagan god of chance.

He won the roll, but unbeknownst to him, the cost was losing the #115 sophomore on the big board who was definitely "Staying". ARE YOU HAPPY NOW BAJIANI?!?!?

This is a genuine question. I was perusing my data, I realized I’ve been involved in 7 three way rolls in my career and the team with the highest percent hasn’t won any of them. Something like 3% chance. Can anyone testify with screenshots otherwise?

Posted by mlitney on 5/5/2022 10:00:00 AM (view original):
Legend tells of a team winning a 3-way with 50%. It all started on a cold February night. Full moon. The coach draws a circle on the creaky wooden floor with chalk, surrounded by candles. Right before the signing cycle, he summons the spirit of Bajiani, the pagan god of chance.

He won the roll, but unbeknownst to him, the cost was losing the #115 sophomore on the big board who was definitely "Staying". ARE YOU HAPPY NOW BAJIANI?!?!?

This made me chuckle.

I tracked battles across a few worlds for top 100 when 3.0 first launched.

For 3 way battles with a VH vs H vs H, the VH won 32/49 times. I didn't track exact odds.

For 3 way battles with a VH vs VH vs H, the high won 23/68 times.

Posted by Benis on 5/5/2022 10:20:00 AM (view original):

Posted by mlitney on 5/5/2022 10:00:00 AM (view original):
Legend tells of a team winning a 3-way with 50%. It all started on a cold February night. Full moon. The coach draws a circle on the creaky wooden floor with chalk, surrounded by candles. Right before the signing cycle, he summons the spirit of Bajiani, the pagan god of chance.

He won the roll, but unbeknownst to him, the cost was losing the #115 sophomore on the big board who was definitely "Staying". ARE YOU HAPPY NOW BAJIANI?!?!?

This made me chuckle.

I tracked battles across a few worlds for top 100 when 3.0 first launched.

For 3 way battles with a VH vs H vs H, the VH won 32/49 times. I didn't track exact odds.

For 3 way battles with a VH vs VH vs H, the high won 23/68 times.

kk that’s good enough

Posted by cubcub113 on 5/5/2022 10:25:00 AM (view original):

Posted by Benis on 5/5/2022 10:20:00 AM (view original):

Posted by mlitney on 5/5/2022 10:00:00 AM (view original):
Legend tells of a team winning a 3-way with 50%. It all started on a cold February night. Full moon. The coach draws a circle on the creaky wooden floor with chalk, surrounded by candles. Right before the signing cycle, he summons the spirit of Bajiani, the pagan god of chance.

He won the roll, but unbeknownst to him, the cost was losing the #115 sophomore on the big board who was definitely "Staying". ARE YOU HAPPY NOW BAJIANI?!?!?

This made me chuckle.

I tracked battles across a few worlds for top 100 when 3.0 first launched.

For 3 way battles with a VH vs H vs H, the VH won 32/49 times. I didn't track exact odds.

For 3 way battles with a VH vs VH vs H, the high won 23/68 times.

kk that’s good enough

I did think the high team winning 23/68 times was kinda unusual. Seems like too many long shots win. What's the typical high sign chance when against two VHs? Should be lower than the 33% win rate that I saw, right?

I recently lost a 3-way in VH-VH-H. The odds were 39/38/23. I was the 39% and the 38% won. I've never won a 3-way roll in my long history of playing HD, which is probably like 10-12 instances. I was probably the favorite team in at least 7 of them.

I was in a 4-way battle for the first time recently. VH (34%)-VH (23%)-H (22%)-H (21%).

The guy signed with VH 23%.

When it comes to probabilities, we would need a much larger sample size to determine anomalies.

I was involved in two 3-way battles in Phelan last season, where there was a single VH. The VH won both.

I just took a look at the top 100 in Iba that have signed after RS1 (beats doing actual work).

6 2 VH/1 H battles - a VH team won 5.
1 1 VH/2 H battle - a H team won that one.

And one 5-way battle (1 VH, 4 H) won by one of the H teams.

Probably not overly helpful without the actual odds, but it was either this or do work, so...

Cub...... Christopher Adames was a 3way roll you were in and lost while at Louisville.

He went to Alabama at 44% you had 41% and a third team had 15%. I tried to share the pic but it wouldn't load.

I also have won a couple 3way rolls as the leader (go figure. I'd put my roll loss percentage up against ANYONE in the game. And I'd say mine is the worst. And a few of my friends may back me up on that! But that's another story!).

I don't mean to be a butthead sharing one with you in it. I just chat with lots of coaches. And that was one of the first pics that came up when I searched

Posted by topdogggbm on 5/5/2022 3:39:00 PM (view original):
Cub...... Christopher Adames was a 3way roll you were in and lost while at Louisville.

He went to Alabama at 44% you had 41% and a third team had 15%. I tried to share the pic but it wouldn't load.

I also have won a couple 3way rolls as the leader (go figure. I'd put my roll loss percentage up against ANYONE in the game. And I'd say mine is the worst. And a few of my friends may back me up on that! But that's another story!).

I don't mean to be a butthead sharing one with you in it. I just chat with lots of coaches. And that was one of the first pics that came up when I searched

i am fairly certain cub would rather see an example including himself. we all make mistakes, the barely evolved monkeys we are. doesn't make you a dick at all to show the best possible example - one cub himself experienced and could perhaps vet as being certain truth - even if it shows he was wrong in an earlier statement.

i throw tons of stuff out there, its how i figure out where i am off base and stuff. the only real mirror in life comes from others' reactions to us. if you can ever shoot me down so directly, so unambiguously, it would be much appreciated! on this end at least, but someone like cub, i have to imagine is the same way. its all about that pursuit of knowledge. i'd throw away everything i'd ever believed in a second, if presented with good enough evidence.

Pretty sure I won a 3-way battle at Weber State in Tark once as the favorite. But have definitely lost at least a couple 3-way rolls as the favorite too.

Posted by gillispie on 5/5/2022 5:05:00 PM (view original):

Posted by topdogggbm on 5/5/2022 3:39:00 PM (view original):
Cub...... Christopher Adames was a 3way roll you were in and lost while at Louisville.

He went to Alabama at 44% you had 41% and a third team had 15%. I tried to share the pic but it wouldn't load.

I also have won a couple 3way rolls as the leader (go figure. I'd put my roll loss percentage up against ANYONE in the game. And I'd say mine is the worst. And a few of my friends may back me up on that! But that's another story!).

I don't mean to be a butthead sharing one with you in it. I just chat with lots of coaches. And that was one of the first pics that came up when I searched

i am fairly certain cub would rather see an example including himself. we all make mistakes, the barely evolved monkeys we are. doesn't make you a dick at all to show the best possible example - one cub himself experienced and could perhaps vet as being certain truth - even if it shows he was wrong in an earlier statement.

i throw tons of stuff out there, its how i figure out where i am off base and stuff. the only real mirror in life comes from others' reactions to us. if you can ever shoot me down so directly, so unambiguously, it would be much appreciated! on this end at least, but someone like cub, i have to imagine is the same way. its all about that pursuit of knowledge. i'd throw away everything i'd ever believed in a second, if presented with good enough evidence.

I had this down at 44% me and 41% Bama. Whoops. Thanks for the help top!