ODL 86 Over/Unders Topic

savoybg
Posts: 3015 (0)
All Star
10 30
Prospect
Posted by steelers821 on 11/2/2022 4:48:00 PM (view original):
Posted by savoybg on 11/2/2022 3:59:00 PM (view original):
This is gonna be fun. Other than myself, the 3 ballots that have been posted all are going under 32.5 on my team, with 2 of the 3 having that pick as a Lock. Steelers and 24K both have me as a lock to win under 32.5 games. Can't wait to play those two!
Meh efg bad defense and 20.4k mins has me wondering how you’ll break 20 wins
You consider this to be BAD defense?

These are the guys in the rotation. The ONLY bad defenders are Young and Theus. Four of the 5 starters are 70-82.

Cowens - 70
Olajuwon - 80
Williams - 70
Outlaw - 82
Young - 34
West - 54
Smith - 59
Tinsley - 82
Theus - 41

The big assists totals I will have will raise the eFG to where I needs it to be. I should average 35+ assists per game. The turnovers are high though and I think my def rebounding is a bit low. We'll see.
11/2/2022 7:38 PM (edited)
copernicus
Posts: 5324 (0)
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511 22 1 127
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50 is statistically net neutral in terms of suppressing opp fg% - you got a couple of guys who might impact their match-ups and your aggregate is not great
11/2/2022 8:04 PM
savoybg
Posts: 3015 (0)
All Star
10 30
Prospect
Posted by copernicus on 11/2/2022 8:04:00 PM (view original):
50 is statistically net neutral in terms of suppressing opp fg% - you got a couple of guys who might impact their match-ups and your aggregate is not great
Yes, so 250 is net neutral for the 5 guys on the court. I am at 336. My average defender in the starting lineup is 67.2. No way that's "bad" defense. It's not great, but it's certainly good.

I'd say 85+ is great, 70-84 is very good, and 60 to 69 is good.
11/2/2022 8:47 PM
savoybg
Posts: 3015 (0)
All Star
10 30
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Posted by copernicus on 11/2/2022 8:04:00 PM (view original):
50 is statistically net neutral in terms of suppressing opp fg% - you got a couple of guys who might impact their match-ups and your aggregate is not great
Your 5 starters average 72.2 on defense, 5 points per player higher than me. So if I really am bad, then you are just okay. I'd say I'm good, and you're very good.
11/2/2022 8:59 PM (edited)
steelers821
Posts: 2996 (1)
Hall of Famer
184 2
Rookie
Posted by savoybg on 11/2/2022 8:59:00 PM (view original):
Posted by copernicus on 11/2/2022 8:04:00 PM (view original):
50 is statistically net neutral in terms of suppressing opp fg% - you got a couple of guys who might impact their match-ups and your aggregate is not great
Your 5 starters average 72.2 on defense, 5 points per player higher than me. So if I really am bad, then you are just okay. I'd say I'm good, and you're very good.
My defense should be unstoppable then.
11/2/2022 9:42 PM
savoybg
Posts: 3015 (0)
All Star
10 30
Prospect
Posted by steelers821 on 11/2/2022 9:42:00 PM (view original):
Posted by savoybg on 11/2/2022 8:59:00 PM (view original):
Posted by copernicus on 11/2/2022 8:04:00 PM (view original):
50 is statistically net neutral in terms of suppressing opp fg% - you got a couple of guys who might impact their match-ups and your aggregate is not great
Your 5 starters average 72.2 on defense, 5 points per player higher than me. So if I really am bad, then you are just okay. I'd say I'm good, and you're very good.
My defense should be unstoppable then.
Yes, the starters average 85.4. Off rebounding and assists are a little light in your starting lineup, but you have several better off rebounders on the bench. Giannis, Irving and Nance can only play about 27 mins each per game, so you'll be relying a lot on your bench.
11/2/2022 11:07 PM
copernicus
Posts: 5324 (0)
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Posted by savoybg on 11/2/2022 8:59:00 PM (view original):
Posted by copernicus on 11/2/2022 8:04:00 PM (view original):
50 is statistically net neutral in terms of suppressing opp fg% - you got a couple of guys who might impact their match-ups and your aggregate is not great
Your 5 starters average 72.2 on defense, 5 points per player higher than me. So if I really am bad, then you are just okay. I'd say I'm good, and you're very good.
not sure about the math there - might want to factor in per minutes (16 minutes of Tinsley is about 2/3 of a game short of a position covered for instance) and also I wasn't arguing I had a good defense, I have an OK maybe goodish defense (for upwards of 30 minutes a game) at best
11/3/2022 12:53 AM
savoybg
Posts: 3015 (0)
All Star
10 30
Prospect
Posted by copernicus on 11/3/2022 12:53:00 AM (view original):
Posted by savoybg on 11/2/2022 8:59:00 PM (view original):
Posted by copernicus on 11/2/2022 8:04:00 PM (view original):
50 is statistically net neutral in terms of suppressing opp fg% - you got a couple of guys who might impact their match-ups and your aggregate is not great
Your 5 starters average 72.2 on defense, 5 points per player higher than me. So if I really am bad, then you are just okay. I'd say I'm good, and you're very good.
not sure about the math there - might want to factor in per minutes (16 minutes of Tinsley is about 2/3 of a game short of a position covered for instance) and also I wasn't arguing I had a good defense, I have an OK maybe goodish defense (for upwards of 30 minutes a game) at best
Four of my 5 starters are very good defenders and they play 39, 37, 35 and 31 minutes a game.
11/3/2022 1:50 AM
PBandJ
Posts: 1036 (2)
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214
Rookie
User Avg. Wins O/U Lock?
24kpyrite 43.4 O
benhoidal 53.3 U
bfhendricks 32.5 U
berkelon 43 O
chewy3344 49.7 O L
copernicus 42.1 O
dakjd901 19 O L
gerryred 40.8 O
jackedjamie 47.1 U
jethroeg 19.2 O
jhsukow 38.6 O
Midge 43.3 O L
ncih 29.8 U
PBandJ 23 O L
PirateSteve 38.5 O
raggedclaws 44.4 O
reeldeal01 50.4 U
riftonapple 54.5 O
robusk 51 O
savoygb 32.5 U L
steelers821 37 O L
thomcat 37.4 O
ty84moss 53 U
ysw128 41.6 U
11/3/2022 9:36 AM
dakjd901
Posts: 1305 (1)
Hall of Famer
22 157 3 50
Rookie
User Avg. Wins O/U Lock?
24kpyrite 43.4 O
benhoidal 53.3 O
bfhendricks 32.5 O L
berkelon 43 O
chewy3344 49.7 U
copernicus 42.1 U
dakjd901 19 O L
gerryred 40.8 O L
jackedjamie 47.1 U L
jethroeg 19.2 O
jhsukow 38.6 U
Midge 43.3 U
ncih 29.8 U
PBandJ 23 O L
PirateSteve 38.5 O
raggedclaws 44.4 U L
reeldeal01 50.4 O
riftonapple 54.5 U
robusk 51 U
savoygb 32.5 U
steelers821 37 U
thomcat 37.4 O
ty84moss 53 O
ysw128 41.6 U
11/3/2022 9:49 AM
bfhendricks
Posts: 3065 (0)
Hall of Famer
114 177 2 74 5 67
Rookie
User Avg. Wins O/U Lock?
24kpyrite 43.4 U
benhoidal 53.3 O
bfhendricks 32.5 O L
berkelon 43 O
chewy3344 49.7 U
copernicus 42.1 U
dakjd901 19 O
gerryred 40.8 U
jackedjamie 47.1 U L
jethroeg 19.2 U
jhsukow 38.6 O
Midge 43.3 O
ncih 29.8 U
PBandJ 23 O L
PirateSteve 38.5 U
raggedclaws 44.4 U L
reeldeal01 50.4 U
riftonapple 54.5 O
robusk 51 O
savoygb 32.5 U
steelers821 37 U
thomcat 37.4 U
ty84moss 53 O L
ysw128 41.6 O - L
11/3/2022 10:26 PM (edited)
chewy3344
Posts: 3189 (7)
Hall of Famer
312 584 29 20 5
Rookie
User Avg. Wins O/U Lock?
24kpyrite 43.4 O
benhoidal 53.3 O
bfhendricks 32.5 O
berkelon 43 O Y
chewy3344 49.7 O Y
copernicus 42.1 O
dakjd901 19 O Y
gerryred 40.8 O
jackedjamie 47.1 U
jethroeg 19.2 U
jhsukow 38.6 O
Midge 43.3 O Y
ncih 29.8 U Y
PBandJ 23 O
PirateSteve 38.5 U
raggedclaws 44.4 O
reeldeal01 50.4 U
riftonapple 54.5 U
robusk 51 O
savoygb 32.5 U Y
steelers821 37 O
thomcat 37.4 U
ty84moss 53 O
ysw128 41.6 U
11/3/2022 10:52 AM
copernicus
Posts: 5324 (0)
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511 22 1 127
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Posted by savoybg on 11/2/2022 8:59:00 PM (view original):
Posted by copernicus on 11/2/2022 8:04:00 PM (view original):
50 is statistically net neutral in terms of suppressing opp fg% - you got a couple of guys who might impact their match-ups and your aggregate is not great
Your 5 starters average 72.2 on defense, 5 points per player higher than me. So if I really am bad, then you are just okay. I'd say I'm good, and you're very good.
also my starting unit is 80-90-88-90-46 = closer to 79 so a tad more than 5 points but I am not sure just averaging it like this is the right way to think about it
11/3/2022 11:19 AM
copernicus
Posts: 5324 (0)
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511 22 1 127
Veteran
Posted by savoybg on 11/3/2022 1:50:00 AM (view original):
Posted by copernicus on 11/3/2022 12:53:00 AM (view original):
Posted by savoybg on 11/2/2022 8:59:00 PM (view original):
Posted by copernicus on 11/2/2022 8:04:00 PM (view original):
50 is statistically net neutral in terms of suppressing opp fg% - you got a couple of guys who might impact their match-ups and your aggregate is not great
Your 5 starters average 72.2 on defense, 5 points per player higher than me. So if I really am bad, then you are just okay. I'd say I'm good, and you're very good.
not sure about the math there - might want to factor in per minutes (16 minutes of Tinsley is about 2/3 of a game short of a position covered for instance) and also I wasn't arguing I had a good defense, I have an OK maybe goodish defense (for upwards of 30 minutes a game) at best
Four of my 5 starters are very good defenders and they play 39, 37, 35 and 31 minutes a game.
70 is not very good is what I am trying to tell you - 70 is a lot closer to just OK than it is to very good
11/3/2022 11:21 AM
steelers821
Posts: 2996 (1)
Hall of Famer
184 2
Rookie
Maybe I’m thinking about this wrong but If you had a team full of players at 50 you’d probably be one of the worst defenses in the league. It may be net neutral in terms of impact but so many other teams will be so far above that.
11/3/2022 11:39 AM
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ODL 86 Over/Unders Topic
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