Re-Destribution Draft Strategy Writeups Topic

Posted by schwarze on 11/3/2022 12:31:00 PM (view original):
So here's the delimma. There are 17 people that still need a 3B. But there are plenty of 3B that I like and that I can live with, so I should wait another round or two, right? But, just about anybody else I pick (from a different position) will also reduce the 3B options. So if there does happen to be a run on 3B run, those half dozen 3B I like may disappear quickly.

So, when looking at it from a different angle, there is one 3B I can take, who I do like, who I have ranked pretty highly, that is also on a franchise where I don't really like the other options left. So I guess it's time.

1954 Eddie Mathews, Braves 3B 6,306,721

Fun fact: Of the 30 thirdbasemen nominated, 24 bat right-handed. I am glad I got one of the lefties. Mathews is also the reason I didn't draft Brett 4 rounds earlier.
My Svengali meter is running a little high right now ...
11/3/2022 12:43 PM
I really didn't want to make this pick. I should've taken '81 Gossage last round and '07 Chris Young this round. But the Braves have no other starting batters or starting pitchers I can take and I don't like their RP options. I've shifted my strategy from "just take the guys I like" to "take guys I can live with on a franchise where the other players on that franchise suck"
11/3/2022 12:54 PM
I'm torned between a left-handed batter like Mathews who has poor range defensively verses a player who hits right-handed but had plus range. Does the lefty bat make up the difference for poorer defense?
11/3/2022 1:38 PM
2B 2004 Mark Loretta SD Padres 7,089,278

Total; 84,934,220
11/3/2022 1:39 PM
via proxy, ff09 takes Jim Thome, 3B Indians $6,384,351
11/3/2022 1:44 PM
Posted by bheid408 on 11/3/2022 1:38:00 PM (view original):
I'm torned between a left-handed batter like Mathews who has poor range defensively verses a player who hits right-handed but had plus range. Does the lefty bat make up the difference for poorer defense?
Oh I know what mean. I always love a good A+ range fielder. But the 3B position does have a propensity for committing a lot of errors. A thirdbaseman who is D/A+ could hurt your team more than a 3B who is an A+/D. Mathews' B+ fielding grade is reasonably good. I do have Mathews rated as the fourth best hitting 3B in this draft, +1.09 standard deviations better than average.
11/3/2022 1:53 PM
Nationals 2b Daniel murphy
everyone ahead of me has their 2b

Someone sm for me I am at the eye doctor.
11/3/2022 2:03 PM (edited)
I can jump Pedro,

OF2: 1996 Gary Sheffield (Marlins) $7,429,378
11/3/2022 2:03 PM
i feel like i'm going to regret this one when bats are picked this round... but at the same time there are still too many people who need their sp1 and i have to have 300+ ip from the spot...

1924 Dazzy Vance Dodgers P1 11,875,690

(no one left this round can take p1)
11/3/2022 2:03 PM
that has to be the fastest three picks ever.
11/3/2022 2:05 PM
I couldn't believe that Vance lasted this long! In my opinion, steal of draft at this point!
11/3/2022 2:05 PM
Posted by bheid408 on 11/3/2022 1:38:00 PM (view original):
I'm torned between a left-handed batter like Mathews who has poor range defensively verses a player who hits right-handed but had plus range. Does the lefty bat make up the difference for poorer defense?
I get a little hung up on L/R in these drafts, too. I just looked and approximately 1/4 of the P1-4 are lefties, and I'm not sure if that's about average or not but it gives us some point of reflection. If you were facing 50-50 pitching, it wouldn't matter who you drafted (skipping over switch hitters, obviously). If it's 75-25, then in approximately half your games you're facing what you'd get anyway in an even split, but now in the other half it's 100% righties instead of 50% as you'd get in an even split. So to me, it's only that 40 or so "extra" games against righties that tilt the scale, and I'm only talking about starters anyway. So that's maybe 120-150 PA extra that come into play. Do we know how many of those outcomes will be different because of handedness? Is it as high as 20%? Are we looking at maybe 10-20 extra or fewer hits over the course of the season? I really don't know, but it's one way of trying to look at it.

At the end of the day, I prefer a balanced lineup if possible. Sometimes in these drafts, it's just not. Does it change the course of your season? My instinct says it matters some, enough to weigh it in my decisions, but probably not enough to let it make me crazy either.
11/3/2022 2:07 PM
2007 Rafael Betancourt - Indians - P7 - $4,272,869
11/3/2022 2:07 PM
ROUND 10
Pick Owner________ Player__________ Season___ Salary_______ Pos
1 3dayrotation 1985 Ozzie Smith Cardinals 6,271,200 SS
2 thejuice6 2012 Aaron Hill Diamondbacks 7,306,823 2B
3 Jtpsops 2011 Doug Fister Tigers 3,018,490 P7
4 bheid408 1992 Rod Beck Giants 3,949,104 P5
5 reddtrain 2008 C.C. Sabathia Brewers 4,896,303 P6
6 firesalt 1991 Todd Frohwirth Orioles 4,209,280 P6
7 ronthegenius 2021 Salvador Perez Royals 5,964,209 C
8 happyhours 2019 Alex Bregman Astros 6,893,269 3B
9 midknight 1992 Sid Fernandez Mets 7,004,033 P3
10 footballmm11 1981 Rich Gossage Yankees 4,290,510 P8
11 BeAllEndAll 1971 Willie Stargell Pirates 6,457,567 OF3
12 joerat1 2014 Garrett Richards Angels 6,239,078 P4
13 calhoop 1967 Cisco Carlos White Sox 3,097,799 P11
14 bigsteve12 2018 Sean Doolittle Nationals 2,566,363 P11
15 Chisock 1983 Dan Quisenberry Royals 5,065,903 P6
16 vilefileman 2002 Miguel Tejada Athletics 6,653,782 SS
17 NebHusker 2019 Anthony Rendon Nationals 6,609,138 3B
18 redcped 1939 Ted Lyons White Sox 6,422,560 P3
19 schwarze 1954 Eddie Mathews Braves 6,306,721 3B
20 alice 2004 Mark Loretta Padres 7,089,278 2B
21 ff09 1996 Jim Thome Indians 6,384,351 3B
22 pedrocerrano 2007 Rafael Betancourt Indians 4,272,869 P7
23 njbigwig 1996 Gary Sheffield Marlins 7,429,378 OF2
24 mllama54 2017 Daniel Murphy Nationals 5,868,234 2B
11/3/2022 2:08 PM
Posted by njbigwig on 11/3/2022 2:05:00 PM (view original):
I couldn't believe that Vance lasted this long! In my opinion, steal of draft at this point!
I took a Dodger in R1 and never had a chance to consider him ... but yeah, it hadn't escaped my notice that he was still sitting there.
11/3/2022 2:08 PM
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Re-Destribution Draft Strategy Writeups Topic

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