Posted by savoybg on 11/2/2022 8:49:00 PM (view original):
Posted by copernicus on 11/2/2022 8:04:00 PM (view original):
50 is statistically net neutral in terms of suppressing opp fg% - you got a couple of guys who might impact their match-ups and your aggregate is not great
Yes, so 250 is net neutral for the 5 guys on the court. I am at 336. My average defender in the starting lineup is 67.2. No way that's "bad" defense. It's not great, but it's certainly good.
I'd say 85+ is great, 70-84 is very good, and 60 to 69 is good.
Not exactly accurate.
Look at most players that are used in this and other premium leagues. The lowest defense rating you can find is a 4 and the lowest for a season over $3M is 14. In this league I would say the lowest you will find is around 35 for a player playing more than 10 MPG. That would bring the simple average to 67.5 [(35+100)/total data set]. This means in this league you need a defense around 67.5 to prevent overall mismatches. 337.5 is the baseline for net neutral not 250. The effective range of defenses can possibly fall between 28 and 500, but this is not realistic for this or any league.
Now to get nerdy...the average of the 5 players the will play the most minutes in this league per team is 364.0833 with a standard deviation of 44.04634. While your team falls within one STDEV you are on the back side of that, as am I. Any team in this league that has a defense between 320-408 will see a similar effect (not identical as those toward the bottom of the 320 figure will not do as well as those closer to 408) or a difference that is somewhat predictable. The team below and above will see marked differences.
Now to your team...and where I disagree with steelers. Your problem isn't defense. Your problem is picking the wrong seasons and that you will never use all of your defense. Cowens, Dream, West, Outlaw, and Tinsley all may as well be running out there with meat cleavers. Dream and Cowens will stay in foul trouble. Outlaw will too. You picked the wrong Olajuwon season for sure. Cowens is just the wrong player for this league...period. While 35% OReb is going to help with some second chance scoring, 78.1% DReb% (these percentages are for players with the most minutes) is not going to cut it in this league. You will be eaten alive on the defensive glass. Your team will definitely finish bottom quarter in rebounding and there is nothing your team is elite at. Too many minutes, too low efg%, too low CReb%, too many TO's, too many fouls and not enough stocks to off set the damage. You can outscore, you can't gain more possessions, and you can't not foul.
The first season of ODL is a tough place. You will learn and get better. I say all of this not to be mean, but just to help you understand the landscape. Those guys were grew up watching were great, but that isn't the sim. Player A29DC8 is Reggie Theus and those 10 MPG he plays will be brutal. You can't assume he will wake up and be Reggie Theus with his sweet stroke and have a great game. The sim doesn't think like that. "It can't be reasoned with. It doesn't feel pity, or remorse, or fear. And it absolutely will not stop, ever, until you are dead." Ok, maybe not quite that bad...but hopefully you get my point.