1924-42 Dodgers (26-21)
1928 Dazzy Vance
Real Life Stats: 297 ip, .221 oav, 1.06 whip, 2.09 era
Sim Stats: 71 ip, .310 avg, 1.68 whip, 7.19 era, 5-4
Grade: D
Comment: After a terrible start, this team has won 15 of it's last 19 games. During this stretch, '28 Dazzy has gone 3-0 in his 5 starts, bringing his ERA down from 10.46 to 7.19. There is a lot of offense in this league and there really wasn't a hitting clone that would significantly upgrade the team, so I basically need to live with '28 Vance as being a below-average pitcher who can get some wins if he can allow 5 runs or less in 7+ innings. I can't believe I hose this team over all the 1927 Ruth-Gehrig possible teams. FYI - this team's cumulative ERA of 5.26 is ranked 7th in the league.
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1922-39 Reds (29-18)
1925 Dolf Luque
Real Life Stats: 309 ip, .239 oav, 1.17 whip, 2.63 era
Sim Stats: 81 ip, .253 avg, 1.35 whip, 2.99 era, 7-4
Grade: A+
Comment: This Reds team was the last team selected in League #6. I was looking at this team for a really long time and finally pulled the trigger (this was my 31st and last team selected). I knew the pitching would be good (ranked 1st in ERA) and the offense would be weak (ranked 22nd). I love '24 Rixey & '23 Luque. Despite having plenty of solid pitching options ('39 Walters, '32 Lucas), I decided on '25 Luque so I could use Rixey as my main long reliever / setup guy. In a million years, I never expected '25 Luque to be ranked 2nd in the entire league in ERA. I doubt it lasts, but I'm enjoying the ride.
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1930-70 Athletics (29-18)
1930 Left Grove
Real Life Stats: 307 ip, .247 oav, 1.14 whip, 2.54 era
Sim Stats: 88 ip, .246 avg, 1.33 whip, 4.41 era, 6-5
Grade: B+
Comment: Just like the '28 Vance selection, when a league has tons of hitting, I opted to go for a starting pitcher as my clone even though he isn't really considered a stud pitcher. In real life 1930 Grove is much worse than 1931 Grove. Ironically, in the sim, my '30 Grove is pitching better than my '31 Grove (4.41 era to 5.47 era). This team has the all-lefty starting rotation (Gorve/Grove/Shantz) and the bullpen is pretty much all right-handed (except for closer '70 Blue). Interesting observation... thejuice6's 1931-71 A's are 31-16 and in 1st place in the NL East. My 1930-70 A's are 29-18 and in 1st place in NL Central. And 3dayrotation's 1929-69 A's are 32-15 and in 1st place in the NL West. I'm a few games behind because of some horrendous blown 9th-inning leads (4-8 in 1-run games).
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1936-51 Giants (22-25)
1936 Mel Ott
Real Life Stats: 562 ab, .328 avg, .448 obp, .588 slg
Sim Stats: 179 ab, .268 avg, .354 obp, .553 slg
Grade: B-
Comment: Both of my Mel Ott's started off terribly. It took 25 games for '36 Ott to get above the Mendoza line. But regression is finally kicking in and now his numbers are looking more reasonable. This team really isn't that good and are right on the cusp of not advancing to round 2. Not much else to say about this team.
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1939-46 Yankees (24-23)
1946 Spud Chandler
Real Life Stats: 271 ip, .218 oav, 1.13 whip, 2.10 era
Sim Stats: 61 ip, .292 oav, 1.76 whip, 6.68 era, 4-4
Grade: D
Comment: I could've cloned Joe DiMaggio but I figured I'd need pitching more than hitting. '46 Chandler is my worst pitcher. Total waste of a clone. My third OF (Selkirk) is hitting .214, so clearly I should have gone with DiMaggio.

To be continued

1942-47 Cardinals (22-26)
1943 Stan Musial
Real Life Stats: 650 ab, .365 avg, .434 obp, .587 slg
Sim Stats: 203 ab, .266 avg, .346, .414
Grade: D
Comment: I never realized how poorly my '43 Stan Musial was performing until I started writing this up. There are three other '43 Musials in the league and they are hitting .398, .317 & .294. This is one of the worst teams I have record-wise, and now I know why.
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1953-94 Indians (33-15)
1954 Al Rosen
Real Life Stats: 491 ab, .300 avg, .404 obp, .506 slg
Sim Stats: 88 ab, .352 avg, .404 obp, .557 slg
Grade: A+
Comment: Before the season began, I joked that this might be one of my weakest clone selections. His $5.2 million salary is pretty low for a hitter and he's currently only playing part time, but he's way overachieving - I am avoiding the temptation to play him full time (if it ain't broke... ). But I do expect some negative regression soon.
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1956-62 Yankees (24-24)
1957 Mickey Mantle
Real Life Stats: 499 ab, .365 avg, .512 obp, .665 slg
Sim Stats: 170 ab, .324 avg, .463 obp, .576 slg
Grade: A
Comment: Thru 24 games, '57 Mantle was hitting .239 with a .375 slug%. Since then, he's been what I expected from a $14 million player. The mediocre W-L record can no longer be blamed on my Mantles. The team is ranked 3rd in run scored, but bottom 6 in pitching. I don't see this changing too much. If my Mantles are hitting, we have a shot at winning some games. If they are not, we have no shot at winning.
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1963-72 Dodgers (30-18)
1965 Sandy Koufax
Real Life Stats: 336 ip, .179 oav, 0.86 whip, 2.04 era
Sim Stats: 99 ip, .245 oav, 1.27 whip, 4.65 era, 5-5
Grade: C-
Comment: So this team is 12 games over .500 yet this Koufax is 5-5 and has an ERA worse than the league average of 4.58. That's pretty disappointing. I am currently using 72 Sutton as a long reliever / setup guy. I may have to move Sutton into the starting rotation and have '65 Koufax come out of the pen. I expected more from a guy with a sub 0.90 whip, playing his home games in Dodger stadium, in the lowest scoring league.

To be continued

1964-83 White Sox (36-14)
1967 Joe Horlen
Real Life Stats: 258 ip, .203 oav, 0.95 whip, 2.06 era
Sim Stats: 89 ip, .261 oav, 1.18 whip, 3.74 era, 8-4
Grade: A-
Comment: Ranked 1st in pitching (expected) and 3rd in offense (huge surprise), this team is competing for the #1 overall team, so it's hard to be disappointed in any playr on the team. '67 Horlen is the weaker of the two Horlens, although their real life stats are similar. My other Horlen is ranked 3rd in ERA (2.23). '67 Horlen is ranked 24th - still very good. No complaints.
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1964-81 Phillies (25-25)
1980 Steve Carlton
Real Life Stats: 303 ip, .218 oav, 1.10 whip, 2.34 era
Sim Stats: 96 ip, .268 oav, 1.40 whip, 4.61 era, 5-6
Grade: C
Comment: His ERA is exacty the same as the league overall ERA. He's an average pitcher with a .500 record for a .500 team with an average ERA. C seems like the only grade that makes sense. Ironically, the *good* Carlton is also 5-6 with a 5.59 ERA. Frankly, the entire pitching staff sucks - the offense sucks. We're lucky to be .500.
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1967-85 Cardinals (30-20)
1969 Bob Gibson
Real Life Stats: 314 ip, .219 oav, 1.10 whip, 2.18 era
Sim Stats: 89 ip, .277 oav, 1.54 whip, 4.55 era, 5-4
Grade: C
Comment: Just like '80 Carton, '69 Gibson is pitching at essentially league average. He is pitching better than his teammate, '82 Andujar, so he's not the worst pitcher on the team. He's a league average innings eater.
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1969-07 Padres (31-20)
1987 Tony Gwynn
Real Life Stats: 589 ab, .370 avg, .447 opb, .511 slg
Sim Stats: 175 ab, .280, .383, 383
Grade: C
Comment: Sorry, but when your sim batting average is close to 100 points worse than your real life batting average, you're not getting a good grade. Somehow, he has only 2 doubles thru 51 games (36 in real life).

To be continued

I don't know why 1985 John Tudor hates me.
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Lg	.	Team	.	Owner	.	Games	.	IPs	.	Sim ERA	.	League ERA	.	ERA Diff
14		1971 - 1996 Cardinals		thejuice6		14		93		2.04		4.85		-2.81
13		1968-87 Double Gibson Cardinals		ronthegenius		14		108		3.00		4.62		-1.62
17		1982-01 St. Louis Cardinals		BeAllEndAll		12		84		4.41		5.02		-0.61
13		1967-85 St. Louis Cardinals (Gibson)		schwarze		13		92		4.11		4.62		-0.51
16		1981-00 St. Louis Cardinals (Lankford)		schwarze		14		89		4.97		5.31		-0.34
17		1985-02 St. Louis Cardinals (Tudor)		schwarze		14		94		5.38		5.02		+0.36

Strange happenings in League 13 AL West...

Three of the four teams in that division are Twins teams from similar seasons. Current standings:

West	W-L	PCT	GB	Division	1-Run G	Extra Inn	RS	RA	Exp.%	Owner
1967-1992 Twin City Cupcakes	41-17	0.707	-	11-4	9-4	4-1	360	261	0.653	bigsteve12
1969-2002 Twins	30-28	0.517	11	9-6	7-5	0-3	316	348	0.452	barracuda3
1968-87 San Francisco Giants	25-33	0.431	16	6-9	3-7	0-4	274	313	0.436	DarthDurron
1970-03 Minnesota Twins [Carew]	22-36	0.379	19	4-11	4-10	2-2	338	361	0.467	footballmm11

Looking first at the 11 game difference in the standings between my team and bigsteve12's, I'd assume that the two teams would have some of the same players, which on average should perform similarly for each team, meaning that the difference should be explained by the players who differ. To quote one of the most annoying sports commentators in history, not so fast my friend.

Offense:

						Common Players						Differing Players
					PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS		PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
1967-1992 Twin City Cupcakes					937	.306	.379	.489	.868	_____	1170	.276	.334	.376	.710
1969-2002 Twins					928	.289	.345	.444	.789	_____	1170	.281	.335	.403	.738

The EXACT same players (the same players from the same seasons) are performing significantly differently, while the different players are performing almost identically. For the record, my team is playing its home games at Fenway (1.09) and his are in the Metrodome (1.07).

Pitching:

					Common Players				Differing Players
					IP	WHIP	ERA		IP	WHIP	ERA
1967-1992 Twin City Cupcakes					216	1.32	3.53	_____	305	1.50	4.45
1969-2002 Twins					283	1.66	5.42	_____	235	1.69	5.71

What? Look at that difference between the SAME PITCHERS. I mean, there is some difference in utilization percentage between the two teams, but the common player with the biggest difference, Doug Corbett (53 IP for me, 23 IP for him) is actually one of my best pitchers (1.19 / 4.08). TCC's defense is a little bit better than mine, but that and the slight ballpark difference in no way comes close to explaining that discrepancy for the same pitchers.

I don't know if this will even out as the season progresses, but that would be my only chance to contend for the division title.

And here are the same stats between my team and footballmm11's, both of which are playing in Fenway Park:

						Common Players						Differing Players
					PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	_____	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
1969-2002 Twins					1425	.297	.349	.425	.774		673	.257	.320	.412	.732
1970-03 Minnesota Twins [Carew]					1385	.311	.364	.440	.805		779	.261	.345	.426	.771
					Common Players				Differing Players
					IP	WHIP	ERA	_____	IP	WHIP	ERA
1969-2002 Twins					383	1.57	5.32		135	1.97	6.20
1970-03 Minnesota Twins [Carew]					374	1.65	5.49		144	1.66	6.24

Similar and differing players are performing more closely here, suggesting what you would glean from the expected winning percentage difference, which is that the difference in records between the two teams has been driven by luck.

PM games went 2-11.

PM2 games went 3-10.

Can't hold a lead. Have great RP's just getting the snot knocked out of them game after game.

My 1991-2004 Dodgers in League 18 have lost 16 straight. Might be my worst slide in any league save the crazy themes where you have to play a roster someone builds for you to be awful. We started 20-16, too.

Posted by barracuda3 on 11/29/2022 1:09:00 PM (view original):
Strange happenings in League 13 AL West...

Three of the four teams in that division are Twins teams from similar seasons. Current standings:

West	W-L	PCT	GB	Division	1-Run G	Extra Inn	RS	RA	Exp.%	Owner
1967-1992 Twin City Cupcakes	41-17	0.707	-	11-4	9-4	4-1	360	261	0.653	bigsteve12
1969-2002 Twins	30-28	0.517	11	9-6	7-5	0-3	316	348	0.452	barracuda3
1968-87 San Francisco Giants	25-33	0.431	16	6-9	3-7	0-4	274	313	0.436	DarthDurron
1970-03 Minnesota Twins [Carew]	22-36	0.379	19	4-11	4-10	2-2	338	361	0.467	footballmm11

Looking first at the 11 game difference in the standings between my team and bigsteve12's, I'd assume that the two teams would have some of the same players, which on average should perform similarly for each team, meaning that the difference should be explained by the players who differ. To quote one of the most annoying sports commentators in history, not so fast my friend.

Offense:

						Common Players						Differing Players
					PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS		PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
1967-1992 Twin City Cupcakes					937	.306	.379	.489	.868	_____	1170	.276	.334	.376	.710
1969-2002 Twins					928	.289	.345	.444	.789	_____	1170	.281	.335	.403	.738

The EXACT same players (the same players from the same seasons) are performing significantly differently, while the different players are performing almost identically. For the record, my team is playing its home games at Fenway (1.09) and his are in the Metrodome (1.07).

Pitching:

					Common Players				Differing Players
					IP	WHIP	ERA		IP	WHIP	ERA
1967-1992 Twin City Cupcakes					216	1.32	3.53	_____	305	1.50	4.45
1969-2002 Twins					283	1.66	5.42	_____	235	1.69	5.71

What? Look at that difference between the SAME PITCHERS. I mean, there is some difference in utilization percentage between the two teams, but the common player with the biggest difference, Doug Corbett (53 IP for me, 23 IP for him) is actually one of my best pitchers (1.19 / 4.08). TCC's defense is a little bit better than mine, but that and the slight ballpark difference in no way comes close to explaining that discrepancy for the same pitchers.

I don't know if this will even out as the season progresses, but that would be my only chance to contend for the division title.

...and my Twins team gets summarily swept by bigsteve12. Sometimes all the analysis in the world can't overcome "it's just not our season."

Posted by oldtimer59 on 11/29/2022 9:13:00 PM (view original):
PM games went 2-11.

PM2 games went 3-10.

Can't hold a lead. Have great RP's just getting the snot knocked out of them game after game.

I wouldn't have any experience with this.

Four of my top nine teams are in the A.L. while six of my worst eight teams are in the N.L.
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Division	Team Name	Leag	Pick#	W-L
ALC	1964-83 Chicago White Sox (Horlen)	12	19	45-19
NLE	1981-01 Houston Astros (Bagwell)	16	1	45-19
ALW	1922-39 Cincinnati Reds (Luque)	6	24	43-21
NLE	1953-94 Cleveland Indians (Rosen)	10	3	42-22
ALW	1903-15 Boston Americans (Speaker)	3	22	41-23
NLW	2002-14 Los Angeles Dodgers (Kershaw)	21	9	40-24
NLE	1997-13 Los Angeles Dodgers (Kershaw)	20	4	40-24
NLE	1978-94 Kansas City Royals (Brett)	15	1	40-24
ALE	2007-19 Cleveland Indians (Kluber)	22	13	40-24
...
NLE	1985-02 St. Louis Cardinals (Tudor)	17	2	32-32
NLC	1939-46 New York Yankees (Chandler)	8	5	32-32
NLE	1956-62 New York Yankees (Mantle)	11	3	32-32
ALE	1936-51 New York Giants (Ott)	8	15	32-32
NLE	1894-99 Baltimore Orioles (Jennings)	1	1	32-32
ALE	1981-00 St. Louis Cardinals (Lankford)	16	16	31-33
NLC	1942-47 St. Louis Cardinals (Musial)	9	5	30-34
NLE	2013-18 Los Angeles Dodgers (Kershaw)	22	3	27-37

My divisional play is still performing worse than non-divisional games...
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	Win	Loss	Win%
Overall	1138	846	0.574
League (Non Div)	491	346	0.587
Divisional	362	289	0.556
Interleague	285	211	0.575

This makes sense since 22 of my 31 teams are in the "East" division, which in theory should be the toughest among the league's three divisions.
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Division	Teams	Win%
NLE	18	0.575
NLC	3	0.521
NLW	1	0.625
ALE	4	0.547
ALC	2	0.610
ALW	3	0.615
Overall Total -->		0.574

What an absolute bloodbath in today pm games. A brutal 9-22 record, including 1-8 in 1-run games! Blown 8th+ inning leads of...

3-0 (allowed 4 runs in 8th)
5-3 (1 in 8th, 2 in 9th)
10-7 (3 in 9th, then also allow 2 in bottom of 12th inning after taking 1-run lead)
7-5 (4 in 8th off closer '95 Maddux)
8-4 (5 in 9th, all with 2 outs, last 3 off '03 Gagne)

My one 1-run win: I was up 6-2 and gave up 1 run in 7th and 2 runs in 8th. I hate this game.

Time for a schwarze-lite review of my teams through 72 games. I joined a little late and have 10 teams, all AL. My goal with any of these was just to find a squad I thought could win a division, since I knew it was unlikely I'd find a superteam hidden among the remaining options at that point. Let's see who's been exceptional, and who's been dreadful on each team.

League 2: 1903-08 Pirates (Wagner)
41-31, 2 game lead, but on an L7
Hero: CF Roy Thomas (.300/.381/.406 with 15 plus plays). Pretty good for a RL .256/.348/.345 guy
Goat: SP Vic Willis (10-7, 5.68 ERA, 1.75 WHIP, .322 OAV). Never mind the record, he's been bad. RL stats: 2.07 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, .213 OAV

League 5: 1916-21 Giants (Schupp)
41-31, tied for division with schwarze's 17-22 Giants
Hero: RP Fred Toney, 7-0, 6 saves, 1.06 ERA in 51 innings, .217 OAV, 0.98 WHIP. Unlike most of the pitching staff, he's actually been better than RL.
Goat: 1B George Kelly (.256/.304/.372). His 18 plus plays and .999 FLD are saving some runs, but he's 8th on the team in OPS and he's my cleanup hitter. So that's not ideal.

League 8: 1940-52 Indians (Boudreau)
40-32, 2 game lead
Hero: OF Minnie Minoso (.337/.403/.566) is exceeding his RL .922 OPS and leading the team in most categories.
Goat (tie): 3B Al Rosen (.202/.293/.340) and 1B Hal Trosky (.219/.289/.371) are killing rallies right and left.

League 9: 1939-44 Cardinals (Cooper)
43-29, 3 game lead
Hero: 1B Johnny Mize (.334/.405/.581) isn't far off his RL 1.070 OPS and is way outhitting Musial.
Goat: DH Joe Medwick (.290/.335/.371). It's hard to be too down on a .290 hitter, but this team is hitting .314 and only Marty Marion has a lower OPS in the lineup. Maybe he really hates not playing the field? (Honorable mention: P Ted Wilks, 6.68 ERA, 1.71 WHIP. ERA was over 10 after his first 10 starts. This guy always disappoints me, and someday I'll learn not to bother drafting him.)

League 12: 1963-81 Cardinals (Gibson)
34-38, tied for 3rd, 6 games back
Hero: CF Curt Flood (.370/.412/.479, 8 plus plays) is supposed to be platooning with Bake McBride but he's starting to play more against RHP, too. (Honorable mention: Both Keith Hernandez and Tom Herr are errorless!)
Goat: 1B Orlando Cepeda (.213/.275/.351) is being outhit by '81 Tommy Herr, which really takes some effort to achieve. (Honorable mention: '81 Andy Rincon has made two spot starts and given up 14 runs in 9.1 innings)

League 14: 1973-78 Dodgers (Smith)
40-32, 5 game lead
Hero: 3B Ron Cey (.295/.382/.519, 10 plus plays) has been the best hitter not named Reggie Smith for me, though Dusty Baker is doing a fine job, too.
Goat: CF Jim Wynn (.194/.309/.366) does have 15 HR and walks a lot, but I'm starting to wonder why I still have him leading off. He's got the same OPS as Lopes, who at least can steal. (Honorable mention: '78 Bob Welch (7.89 ERA, 2.01 WHIP, .366 OAV) was supposed to be a relief whiz, but he's throwing like a mopup)

League 15: 1976-85 Royals (Brett)
32-40, 4th place, 6 back
Hero: CF Willie Wilson (.331/.348/.437, 32/37 SB/CS, 13 plus plays) is doing all the things you want Willie Wilson to do hitting ahead of two Bretts.
Goat: DH Hal McRae (.235/.299/.400) is not doing those things hitting behind Wilson and two Bretts, unfortunately. Neither are Amos Otis (.218/.294/.440) or Al Cowens (.253/.284/.347), and that largely explains our record. But we're not out of it either.

League 16: 1979-2008 Brewers (Molitor)
35-37, 4th place, 4 back
Hero: 1B Cecil Cooper (.344/.376/.513) and RF Sixto Lezcano (.313/.386/.521) have been hitting pretty close to RL numbers.
Goat: SS Robin Yount (.225/.277/.374), who has been dropped to 7th and might soon be hitting 9th. He's actually getting worse, slugging under .200 in his last 10 games. If he's even an average player, we could be leading the division. (Honorable mention: My Molitors are having twin poor seasons with .708 and .700 OPS, and it's a testament to Yount's awfulness that he's not leading the Goat category.) (Honorable mention II: My top 3 starters have ERAs of 6.75, 6.43, and 7.52, and last I checked those aren't ideal.)
Oddball stat shoutout: Gorman Thomas has 10 HR and 14 RBI, and that's really hard to do.

League 18: 1991-2004 Dodgers (Gagne)
27-45, 4th place, 11 back (featured an 18-game losing streak, so we're actually over .500 if you throw that out!
Hero: SP Kevin Brown (5-8, 4.38 ERA, 1.18 WHIP) has been the only decent guy in the rotation. I've only managed to get Gagne 5 save opportunities all season. Five!
Goat: 2B Eric Young (.162/.233/.228) didn't have to do a ton offensively, but he has to do a lot more than that.

League 22: 2008-22 Cubs (Bryant)
35-37, tied for 1st (this division is just strangely terrible)
Hero: 2015 Jake Arrieta (8-4, 2.35 ERA, 1.03 WHIP) has done what you would hope he would do. He's 2 runs better than the rest of the rotation.
Goat: The 2017 Kris Bryant (.228/.311/.339) has been awful, and so has Anthony Rizzo (.211/.270/.399)

Outlook: Other than those lost-cause Dodgers, I think all the other teams should advance (assuming the Royals pick it up a bit). Not sure I have any WS-winning squads here, but at the moment at least I'd have 6 teams in the playoffs with a shot. Those 39-44 Cards are probably the best equipped for a good run.