The best teams typically win blowouts and lose close games. Here are the top 30 teams, as ranked by Expected Winning%. There's some 1-run game bad luck for a few teams, depressing their overall ranking. The overall rank is shown in the first column.
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Rank	Team Name	League	Owner	Pick#	Record	Exp Win%	1-Run
--------	-----------------------------------------------------	---------	-------------------	----------	------------	------------	---------
1	1964-83 Chicago White Sox (Horlen)	12	schwarze	19	45-17	0.694	10-4
4	1981-01 Houston Astros (Bagwell)	16	schwarze	1	43-19	0.688	6-3
6	2004-15 Los Angeles Dodgers	21	beallendall	7	42-20	0.687	10-7
3	1967-1992 Twin City Cupcakes	13	bigsteve12	24	44-18	0.663	9-4
19	1903-15 Boston Americans (Speaker)	3	schwarze	22	39-23	0.663	8-7
5	1971 - 1996 Cardinals	14	thejuice6	1	43-19	0.662	16-4
20	1887 - 1899 Browns/Perfectos (O'Neill)	1	pedrocerrano	7	39-23	0.661	6-6
84	'90 - '22 Brown Cardinal Perfectos	1	ejstockman	20	36-26	0.657	4-5
21	1984 - 2010 Padres (Gwynn)	17	pedrocerrano	10	39-23	0.656	9-5
30	15-37 CHW	4	ybjsports	3	38-24	0.650	5-7
14	.L08 1937-69 cubs	8	3dayrotation	13	40-22	0.645	8-5
2	1981-12 Double Raines Expos/Nats	16	ronthegenius	2	45-17	0.644	13-4
7	1953-94 Cleveland Indians (Rosen)	10	schwarze	3	42-20	0.643	11-4
31	.L07 1929-69 phil/kc/oak a's	7	3dayrotation	11	38-24	0.637	11-9
32	1906-1918 Napping Naps with an extra Nap	3	d_rock97	10	38-24	0.635	8-6
9	1931 - 1971 Athletics	7	thejuice6	1	41-21	0.634	11-9
51	1967-85 St. Louis Cardinals (Gibson)	13	schwarze	2	37-25	0.632	7-9
52	1942-1949 New York Yankees	9	glowguy	6	37-25	0.631	8-11
10	1989-2001 Giants	18	barracuda3	17	41-21	0.630	11-6
11	1922-39 Cincinnati Reds (Luque)	6	schwarze	24	41-21	0.629	7-7
22	2002-14 Los Angeles Dodgers (Kershaw)	21	schwarze	9	39-23	0.629	11-6
23	1922-1964 St. Louis Browns/Baltimore Ori	6	ribbentrop	11	39-23	0.627	7-8
85	1924 - 1929 Pirates (P Waner)	6	pedrocerrano	18	36-26	0.626	7-14
86	San Francisco Giants (2000-2009)	20	darny10	2	36-26	0.626	3-3
12	2009-17 Red Sox	22	nocomm999	23	41-21	0.625	8-6
53	1930-70 Philadelphia Athletics (Grove)	7	schwarze	7	37-25	0.625	6-11
15	1939 - 1949 Boston Red Sox	8	kstober	7	40-22	0.623	4-3
54	2003-2017 Chicago Cubs	21	darthdurron	21	37-25	0.623	8-6
145	Dodgers 2015-2020	22	calhoop	2	34-28	0.622	3-12
110	J14: 69-94 Expos	14	chisock	5	35-27	0.620	11-11

This chart is similar to the above chart, except I am only including teams outside the top 360 in overall rank. In other words, these are the top 15 teams that currently don't qualify for round 2. The right-most column is the main reason why.
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Rank	Team Name	League	Owner	Pick#	Record	Exp Win%	1-Run
--------	-----------------------------------------------------	---------	-------------------	----------	------------	------------	---------
362	1980-99 Astros	16	nocomm999	4	28-34	0.565	1-8
420	1976-85 Kansas City Royals (Brett)	15	redcped	13	26-36	0.519	5-18
365	1901-1912 Boston Americans|RedSox	2	steveizzy	16	28-34	0.516	7-11
364	NYY 33-38	7	farleyfustle	17	28-34	0.516	3-12
363	2005 - 2022 Phillies	22	thejuice6	1	28-34	0.516	3-12
448	J06: 27-33 Giants	6	chisock	4	25-37	0.509	5-14
421	44-66 Buccaneers	9	jpeterso	22	26-36	0.504	3-9
422	2003 - 2014 San Francisco Giants	21	cstrohmier	12	26-36	0.500	4-6
366	1955-1962 Brooklyn- Los Angeles Dodgers	11	glowguy	17	28-34	0.497	1-7
367	1994-2022 Reds	19	barracuda3	21	28-34	0.495	4-6
473	Six championship (2016) Cubs & a movie	21	hoopsrus	14	24-38	0.490	3-9
423	J03: 08-61 Browns/O's	3	chisock	9	26-36	0.490	5-8
398	1973–1997 San Francisco Giants	15	ribbentrop	7	27-35	0.489	3-10
368	'70 -'79 New York Yankees	13	urband	4	28-34	0.488	6-13
424	1952-1958 New York Yankees	10	glowguy	4	26-36	0.486	3-6

Meanwhile, these 15 teams are the "worst" qualifying teams. More specifically, these are the teams in the top 360 with the lowest Expected Winning%
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Rank	Team Name	League	Owner	Pick#	Record	Exp Win%	1-Run
--------	-----------------------------------------------------	---------	-------------------	----------	------------	------------	---------
333	Hubbell Telescope Spots 1924-1930 Giants	6	d_rock97	22	30-32	0.375	8-5
332	1913-1926 Washington Senators	4	cstrohmier	12	30-32	0.401	6-3
278	1981-2011 Texas Rangers (Ryan)	16	reddtrain	13	31-31	0.410	10-7
331	1980-88 Los Angeles Dodgers [Guerrero]	16	footballmm11	22	30-32	0.410	13-4
330	.L09 1942-51 red sox	9	3dayrotation	9	30-32	0.417	7-7
359	1982-01 St. Louis Cardinals	17	beallendall	5	29-33	0.432	10-5
360	1950-1955 Brooklyn Dodgers	10	84champs	16	29-33	0.432	10-6
277	93-02 San Francisco Giants	19	jtpsops	18	31-31	0.433	9-6
329	1914-1953 Boston/Milwaukee	4	ribbentrop	11	30-32	0.435	6-2
327	1903-1908 Chicago Cubs	2	glowguy	2	30-32	0.438	7-7
328	St Louis Cardinals 2001-2011	21	dougsdawgs13	24	30-32	0.438	7-5
276	1896-1906 CHI COLTS/ORPHANS/CUBS	2	oldtimer59	24	31-31	0.440	9-8
326	Philadelphia Freedom (1899-1913)	2	crazyamos	21	30-32	0.440	7-4
358	1934-42 NY GIANTS	8	oldtimer59	24	29-33	0.440	10-6
275	1969-2002 Twins	13	barracuda3	21	31-31	0.441	7-5

Imagine nocomm999's frustration in League 16. His team has a +47 run differential and is not in the Top 360 while leaguemates reddtrain has a -64 run differential and footballmm11 is at -54. To be fair, nocomm999 is in the NL while the other two teams are in the AL. In fact, footballmm11's 30-32 record is good enough to lead the AL West. Nocomm999 is in the NL East, with two of the top 4 overall teams.

Posted by schwarze on 11/30/2022 2:27:00 PM (view original):
Imagine nocomm999's frustration in League 16. His team has a +47 run differential and is not in the Top 360 while leaguemates reddtrain has a -64 run differential and footballmm11 is at -54. To be fair, nocomm999 is in the NL while the other two teams are in the AL. In fact, footballmm11's 30-32 record is good enough to lead the AL West. Nocomm999 is in the NL East, with two of the top 4 overall teams.

I definitely can imagine.

FYI - the first chart on this page punctuates something that should be fairly obvious.

If you have a really good team (wins many games by blowout) AND you are lucky in close games (has strong 1-run game W-L record), your team will be ranked in the top 10. Pretty much every team that is highly ranked in both categories are top 10 teams. It's always nice to be good and be lucky.
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Rank	Team Name	League	Owner	Pick#	Record	Exp Win%	1-Run
--------	-----------------------------------------------------	---------	-------------------	----------	------------	------------	---------
1	1964-83 Chicago White Sox (Horlen)	12	schwarze	19	45-17	0.694	10-4
2	1981-12 Double Raines Expos/Nats	16	ronthegenius	2	45-17	0.644	13-4
3	1967-1992 Twin City Cupcakes	13	bigsteve12	24	44-18	0.663	9-4
4	1981-01 Houston Astros (Bagwell)	16	schwarze	1	43-19	0.688	6-3
5	1971 - 1996 Cardinals	14	thejuice6	1	43-19	0.662	16-4
6	2004-15 Los Angeles Dodgers	21	beallendall	7	42-20	0.687	10-7
7	1953-94 Cleveland Indians (Rosen)	10	schwarze	3	42-20	0.643	11-4
8	1994-2017 Expos/Nats at Olympic	19	spinaldog	9	42-20	0.608	11-6
9	1931 - 1971 Athletics	7	thejuice6	1	41-21	0.634	11-9
10	1989-2001 Giants	18	barracuda3	17	41-21	0.630	11-6

Man, congrats to BIGSTEVE12 - I guarantee you if I had that Twins team, they'd be 18-44 now instead of 44-18. Great job!

We just had another 2 interleague games. So, at the 66-game mark of the season, there have been 18 interleague games per team.

NL vs AL: 2474-2278 .521
AL vs NL: 2278-2474 .479

Correlation coefficient is +0.09. The difference between NL and AL is 1.8 wins (per 162). The difference between pick #1 (or #13) and pick #12 (or #24) is 3.8 wins (per 162). So at the extremes, pick #1 is is expected to win 83.8 wins and pick #24 is expected to win 78.2 wins. All things considered, this is a pretty small difference. Nice job juice on the concept.

Posted by schwarze on 12/1/2022 6:40:00 PM (view original):
We just had another 2 interleague games. So, at the 66-game mark of the season, there have been 18 interleague games per team.

NL vs AL: 2474-2278 .521
AL vs NL: 2278-2474 .479

Correlation coefficient is +0.09. The difference between NL and AL is 1.8 wins (per 162). The difference between pick #1 (or #13) and pick #12 (or #24) is 3.8 wins (per 162). So at the extremes, pick #1 is is expected to win 83.8 wins and pick #24 is expected to win 78.2 wins. All things considered, this is a pretty small difference. Nice job juice on the concept.

There are a lot of at-large teams that move on to Round 2 here, but nonetheless I think we should expect to see a significant weighting of NL teams making the cut. I mean, a few wins could very easily drop a team out of an advancing position. All of my teams are in the AL, so I expect a couple to just miss because of this.

Crazy idea...take an equal amount of AL/NL at large teams to compensate for the difference? Calm down schwarze, just spit-balling..

Thru 67 games, the NL has 5 more teams advancing than average.
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Pick#	Wins	Losses	Rd 2	Win%	Division
-----------	-----------	-----------	-----------	-----------	-----------
1	837	637	21	0.568	0.514
2	768	706	19	0.521
3	728	746	15	0.494
4	697	777	12	0.473
5	772	702	19	0.524	0.497
6	701	773	12	0.476
7	765	709	17	0.519
8	692	782	10	0.469
9	743	731	16	0.504	0.506
10	714	760	12	0.484
11	786	688	18	0.533
12	739	735	14	0.501
13	760	714	17	0.516	0.503
14	733	741	17	0.497
15	748	726	14	0.507
16	723	751	14	0.491
17	729	745	16	0.495	0.490
18	714	760	15	0.484
19	737	737	13	0.500
20	711	763	15	0.482
21	744	730	17	0.505	0.490
22	711	763	11	0.482
23	719	755	13	0.488
24	717	757	13	0.486
1 thru 12	8942	8746	185	0.506
13 thru 24	8746	8942	175	0.494

Posted by SteveIzzy on 12/1/2022 8:12:00 PM (view original):
Crazy idea...take an equal amount of AL/NL at large teams to compensate for the difference? Calm down schwarze, just spit-balling..

I dont think we can change the selection process after the league has started. :)

My Billy C(l)ubs team was one that was listed as worst team who is lucky due to a 16-5 1 run game record. I dont think that surprises me if you look at the way the team is built. We are 2nd in Hrs and above average in Avg and OPS but are bottom 3rd in Total Runs scored? WHY? Our OBP average is terrible, lots of solo HRs. Which brings me to my next point. As expected the pitching overall is below average and giving up a lot of runs. However, the strength is the BP with Sutter, Lee Smith, Lancaster, McElroy, Perry, etc. so with that setup, its easy to see that we Win the close ones likely due to a late HR. Once we have the lead or tie, we are more likely to Win. As I write this, I expect we are good in extras innings also for that reason and upon reviewing are 5-2. So our Exp Pct is not good but we will Win the ties most likely due to a late HR. Better get our tails in gear.

I will post a standings update thru 80 or 81 games. Through 77 games, I will note that there are 21 teams that have 49-51 wins. Only one team has more than 51 wins. So essentially, 21 teams are within 2 games of 2nd place, overall.

Also, there are 34 teams that have a record of 36-41. 25 of these teams would advance to round 2. That's a 162-game pace of 75.7 wins. 77 wins should get in (without a tie-breaker). 75 wins will probably miss out. So the benchmark is 76-86 to have a shot at advancing.

Thru 79 games, there are six teams with 52 or more wins. Five of these teams are in the American League, including two picked at #24 in their respective leagues...
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Team Name	League	Pick#	Record
-----------------------------------------------------	---------	----------	------------
1981-01 Houston Astros (Bagwell)	16	1	56-23
1967-1992 Twin City Cupcakes	13	24	53-26
1964-83 Chicago White Sox (Horlen)	12	19	52-27
1922-39 Cincinnati Reds (Luque)	6	24	52-27
2014-19 Los Angeles Dodgers [Kershaw]	22	15	52-27
2009-17 Red Sox	22	23	52-27