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d_rock97
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Posted by d_rock97 on 12/8/2022 4:54:00 PM (view original):
Posted by savoybg on 12/8/2022 4:45:00 PM (view original):
I don't care about "impressive," I care about actual value. Wilbur Wood's ERA in 1971 was 1.91. That's not exactly quantity with no quality. How many pitchers from 1920 on ever had an ERA under 2.00 and an ERA+ of 189 with over 330 innings?
In a run suppressed era, a 189 ERA+, which isn’t relatively close to all time status. You’re basing this off accumulation stats, which is different from best. It’s like saying Pete Rose is the greatest hitter for having the most hits.
I guess a more fair comparison would be Hugh Duffy batting .440 in 1894, when league average was .309
12/8/2022 5:06 PM
savoybg
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Posted by d_rock97 on 12/8/2022 4:54:00 PM (view original):
Posted by savoybg on 12/8/2022 4:45:00 PM (view original):
I don't care about "impressive," I care about actual value. Wilbur Wood's ERA in 1971 was 1.91. That's not exactly quantity with no quality. How many pitchers from 1920 on ever had an ERA under 2.00 and an ERA+ of 189 with over 330 innings?
In a run suppressed era, a 189 ERA+, which isn’t relatively close to all time status. You’re basing this off accumulation stats, which is different from best. It’s like saying Pete Rose is the greatest hitter for having the most hits.
No it's not. Most hits has nothing to do with how high his level of play was. The proper comp would be like saying that the best hitter was Babe Ruth because he has the most adjusted batting runs.

Pedro gives you 31 starts at 7 innings per start, or 27 starts at 8 innings per start.

1913 Johnson prevented a lot more runs in his 346 innings than Pedro prevented in his 217 innings.

If we deduct 1999 Pedro's stats from 1913 Walter's stats we get:

7 starts
10 relief appearances
13-3 W-L record
2 saves
132.2 innings
72 hits
1 walk
0 HR
negative 5 earned runs

A re you telling us that if Pedro was bale to pitch the above 132.2 innings IN ADDITION to what he actually did in 1999 that it would not have been a much better season for him?

Pedro's ERA+ for the 1999 season was 243, Walter's ERA+ for the 1913 season was 259.

I don't buy the FIP thing. I don't buy that all balls in play are just about luck and the quality of the fielders. I umpired for 26 years. When a guy blasts a ball into the gap for a double or a triple, it's not luck or bad fielding. In the days when there were very few home runs hit it wasn't all luck that made Cy Young better than almost every other pitcher. It was inducing weak contact.

FIP wants us to believe that if the fences were all 600 feet away and there were no more over the fence home runs that all balls in play were not the pitcher's responsibility.
12/8/2022 5:30 PM (edited)
savoybg
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Posted by d_rock97 on 12/8/2022 4:54:00 PM (view original):
Posted by savoybg on 12/8/2022 4:45:00 PM (view original):
I don't care about "impressive," I care about actual value. Wilbur Wood's ERA in 1971 was 1.91. That's not exactly quantity with no quality. How many pitchers from 1920 on ever had an ERA under 2.00 and an ERA+ of 189 with over 330 innings?
In a run suppressed era, a 189 ERA+, which isn’t relatively close to all time status. You’re basing this off accumulation stats, which is different from best. It’s like saying Pete Rose is the greatest hitter for having the most hits.
The lower scoring the era is, the lower the possibilities for a high ERA+. If you allow 20 runs in 200 innings in like 1968, it won't be near as low as allowing 20 runs all year in 200 innings in 2000. There's a diminishing return on great pitching in a real low scoring run environment.

Meanwhile an extra 132 innings from the best pitcher in his league is worth more than a bit better run prevention.

2013 Johnson pitched 62% more innings than 1999 Pedro.

What you're saying is like saying that a player with an OPS of 1.200 in 400 plate appearances is better than a player with a 1.100 OPS in 640 plate appearances. It's preposterous.
12/8/2022 5:30 PM
savoybg
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And don't forget that Pedro's regular season was 8 games longer than WJ's regular season. In 8 more games Johnson would average another 18 innings pitched.
12/8/2022 5:33 PM
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savoybg
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Guys, what is Exp.%
12/8/2022 11:44 PM
savoybg
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First game results are in. Harry Agganis's walkoff single bottom 9 gives us a 3-2 win.

https://www.whatifsports.com/slb/Boxscore.aspx?gid=40430559&pid=1&pbp=0&tf=10

Agganis was pinch hitting for Bill Harris, who I just got off the Waiver Wire.
Lad 2 2 1
Bloomfield Rebels 2 3 0
9
9
Bloomfield Rebels
C.Kimbrel enters the game to pitch.
T.Turner misplays a routine grounder and L.Boudreau reaches on the error.
DP Y.Berra hits into a 6-4 fielder's choice.
DP T.Leach hits a line drive double to LCF.
D.Schofield enters the game as a pinch-hitter for T.Helms.
IIOS D.Schofield grounds out to 3B.
H.Agganis enters the game as a pinch-hitter for B.Harris.
H.Agganis grounds it thru the hole to LCF for a single. Y.Berra scores.


My pitchers who you guys claimed were gonna get hammered, we gave up just 2 hits in the game. We did walk 6 though. Lux had an RBI double and Freeman had a single. They scored the tying run in the top of the 9th on 2 walks, a HBP, and a SF. McDowell blew the save, but Harris came in and got out of first and third one out with no more damage.

My starter Roy Mitchell gave up just one run in 7 full innings.

We scored 2 in the 7th with the key hit a double by Boudreau.

Three stars like an NHL game.

1. Mitchell
2. Agganis
3. Harris


12/9/2022 1:46 AM
savoybg
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Next game matchup is 21 Kershaw (3.55 ERA) for them against 1913 Russ Ford (2.66 ERA) for us.

By the way, Scherzer started and went 4 hitless innings for them but left after just 39 pitches.
12/9/2022 1:51 AM
chargingryno
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It’s a 162 game season. Don’t get too excited or discouraged over the first 40 games
12/9/2022 9:24 AM
chargingryno
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Small sample sizes happen in the sim just as they do in real life. In 2000, Jose Lima had 10 starts where he allowed 0 home runs, including 3 games in a row. Didn’t mean he didn’t get shelled the rest of the year.
12/9/2022 9:59 AM
savoybg
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Posted by chargingryno on 12/9/2022 9:24:00 AM (view original):
It’s a 162 game season. Don’t get too excited or discouraged over the first 40 games
Just crowing while I can.
12/9/2022 11:19 AM
d_rock97
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Posted by savoybg on 12/8/2022 5:30:00 PM (view original):
Posted by d_rock97 on 12/8/2022 4:54:00 PM (view original):
Posted by savoybg on 12/8/2022 4:45:00 PM (view original):
I don't care about "impressive," I care about actual value. Wilbur Wood's ERA in 1971 was 1.91. That's not exactly quantity with no quality. How many pitchers from 1920 on ever had an ERA under 2.00 and an ERA+ of 189 with over 330 innings?
In a run suppressed era, a 189 ERA+, which isn’t relatively close to all time status. You’re basing this off accumulation stats, which is different from best. It’s like saying Pete Rose is the greatest hitter for having the most hits.
The lower scoring the era is, the lower the possibilities for a high ERA+. If you allow 20 runs in 200 innings in like 1968, it won't be near as low as allowing 20 runs all year in 200 innings in 2000. There's a diminishing return on great pitching in a real low scoring run environment.

Meanwhile an extra 132 innings from the best pitcher in his league is worth more than a bit better run prevention.

2013 Johnson pitched 62% more innings than 1999 Pedro.

What you're saying is like saying that a player with an OPS of 1.200 in 400 plate appearances is better than a player with a 1.100 OPS in 640 plate appearances. It's preposterous.
Yes because it’s easier to prevent runs in that era, so everybody is doing it.

And a 1.200 OPS in 400 plate appearances is absolutely better than the 1.100 OPS in 640. Why would you willingly choose the lesser player?

Fact: 2000 Pedro had the lowest WHIP of all time.
Fact: 2000 Pedro had the best ERA+ of all time.

And he did that clean in the second biggest cheating era of all time
12/9/2022 12:22 PM
savoybg
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Posted by d_rock97 on 12/9/2022 12:22:00 PM (view original):
Posted by savoybg on 12/8/2022 5:30:00 PM (view original):
Posted by d_rock97 on 12/8/2022 4:54:00 PM (view original):
Posted by savoybg on 12/8/2022 4:45:00 PM (view original):
I don't care about "impressive," I care about actual value. Wilbur Wood's ERA in 1971 was 1.91. That's not exactly quantity with no quality. How many pitchers from 1920 on ever had an ERA under 2.00 and an ERA+ of 189 with over 330 innings?
In a run suppressed era, a 189 ERA+, which isn’t relatively close to all time status. You’re basing this off accumulation stats, which is different from best. It’s like saying Pete Rose is the greatest hitter for having the most hits.
The lower scoring the era is, the lower the possibilities for a high ERA+. If you allow 20 runs in 200 innings in like 1968, it won't be near as low as allowing 20 runs all year in 200 innings in 2000. There's a diminishing return on great pitching in a real low scoring run environment.

Meanwhile an extra 132 innings from the best pitcher in his league is worth more than a bit better run prevention.

2013 Johnson pitched 62% more innings than 1999 Pedro.

What you're saying is like saying that a player with an OPS of 1.200 in 400 plate appearances is better than a player with a 1.100 OPS in 640 plate appearances. It's preposterous.
Yes because it’s easier to prevent runs in that era, so everybody is doing it.

And a 1.200 OPS in 400 plate appearances is absolutely better than the 1.100 OPS in 640. Why would you willingly choose the lesser player?

Fact: 2000 Pedro had the lowest WHIP of all time.
Fact: 2000 Pedro had the best ERA+ of all time.

And he did that clean in the second biggest cheating era of all time
So you would rather get an OPS of 1.200 for 400 PA than have 1.100 OPS for 640 PA.

What do you think that the OPS of the guy you get to take up those extra 240 PA will be?

Do you think your team will be helped more by 640 PA at 1.100, or by 400 PA at 1.200 plus 240 PA at .775? Fielding and everything else being equal?





12/9/2022 1:26 PM
savoybg
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Pedro had the lowest WHIP of all time in a different season than when he had the great FIP.

Which season do you prefer, 1999 or 2000.?

You haven't even brought up the best point you can make yet. Pedro did not get to face pitchers like Walter did in 1913.

I'll still take the extra 150 innings (prorated from 154 game season to 162 games) at the best ERA+ in his league. You can have your 7 inning guy for 21 starts, I'll take my 8-9 inning guy for 42 starts.
12/9/2022 1:30 PM
savoybg
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Okay we are 1-1 now. We were down 7-6 after 8 and they put up 6 runs in the top of the 9th.

https://www.whatifsports.com/slb/Boxscore.aspx?gid=40432850&pid=1&pbp=0&tf=10

WE HAMMERED Kershaw, but did nothing against their pen.
12/9/2022 1:33 PM
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