Thru 92 games, I have 4 teams right on the edge in terms of advancing to round 5... Generally speaking. a .500 record should be good enough to advance. Gee - I wonder what these four teams all have in common.

My Teams	W-L	Winning%	ExpW%	Difference	Rank
Yankees 19-1937-45-78-02-17	45-47	0.489	0.561	-0.072	94
Athletics 14-30-47-81-94-03	45-47	0.489	0.521	-0.032	97
Braves 18-28-48-74-96-10	45-47	0.489	0.507	-0.018	99
Dodgers 20-30-49-70-85-11	44-48	0.478	0.521	-0.043	105

I just ran a pitcher analysis through 102 games, for league 1. Using their real life Games and Games Started, I split the pitchers into three groups...

SP are define as having started at ;east 75% of their games (Group 1)
RP are define as having relieved at least 75% of their games (Group 3)
SP/RP are all pitchers that start between 25% and 75% of their games (Group 2)

Applying the same number of SIM innings pitched to their real life stats, I can easily do a comparison between their Actual ERA and Sim ERA. Same thing with whip.

It should be no surprise to anybody that the Group 3 (RPs) perform the worst in the sim. Here is a chart that summarize these results...
.

		Actual	Actual	Sim	Sim		Sim/Actual
Group	IP	ERA	WHIP	ERA	WHIP		ERA	WHIP
1 (SP)	14619	2.37	1.06	4.46	1.44		188%	136%
2 (S/R)	2887	2.44	1.10	4.63	1.51		190%	138%
3 (RP)	4346	2.39	1.04	4.84	1.49		203%	143%

If I take a subset of just the best pitchers (defined as pitchers with a real life ERA < 2.50), the results look the same...
.

		Actual	Actual	Sim	Sim		Sim/Actual
Group	IP	ERA	WHIP	ERA	WHIP		ERA	WHIP
1 (SP)	9273	2.08	1.03	4.19	1.40		202%	136%
2 (S/R)	1664	2.05	1.03	4.32	1.43		211%	138%
3 (RP)	2716	1.92	1.00	4.27	1.40		222%	140%

And just for fun, I ran this same chart for my Yankees pitchers....
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		Actual	Actual	Sim	Sim		Sim/Actual
Group	IP	ERA	WHIP	ERA	WHIP		ERA	WHIP
1	667	2.24	1.08	3.67	1.29		163%	120%
2	49	3.40	1.06	4.07	1.11		120%	105%
3	188	2.38	1.00	5.51	1.52		231%	152%

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Group 1: '19 Mays, '37 Gomez, '78 Guidry, '17 Severino
Group 2: '02 Lilly
Group 3: '78 Eastwick, '78 Gossage, ''02 Rivera, '17 Green, '17 Robertson, '17 Warren

since ronthegenius' "21/31/48/76/85/11 s Putrid Pinstripers" team is 18-9 in 1-run games, I decided to see what his summary looked like. Clearly, he's not winning close games due to the bullpen.
.

		Actual	Actual	Sim	Sim		Sim/Actual
Group	IP	ERA	WHIP	ERA	WHIP		ERA	WHIP
1	351	3.14	1.22	4.38	1.51		139%	124%
2	353	3.00	1.28	5.79	1.73		193%	135%
3	213	2.02	0.99	4.48	1.53		221%	154%

After another bullpen implosion (from my A's team), I decided to calculate the same numbers for League #2.

Here is the chart for League 2 (thru 106 games).
.

		Actual	Actual	Sim	Sim		Sim/Actual
Group	IP	ERA	WHIP	ERA	WHIP		ERA	WHIP
1	15641	2.35	1.04	4.01	1.37		170%	132%
2	3106	2.41	1.10	4.32	1.48		179%	135%
3	3976	2.27	1.00	4.33	1.41		190%	141%

It's not as extreme as League 1, but it's basically the same pattern. Type 3 (relief pitchers) perform worse than type 1 (starting pitchers), relative to the real life stats.

And, yes - my A's team Type 3 pitchers (i.e., RPs) are worse than the league average, especially ERA.
.

		Actual	Actual	Sim	Sim		Sim/Actual
Group	IP	ERA	WHIP	ERA	WHIP		ERA	WHIP
1	505	2.75	1.12	4.06	1.39		148%	124%
2	349	2.39	1.11	4.03	1.49		169%	134%
3	83	2.52	1.06	6.40	1.53		253%	144%

Posted by schwarze on 7/19/2023 8:26:00 PM (view original):
since ronthegenius' "21/31/48/76/85/11 s Putrid Pinstripers" team is 18-9 in 1-run games, I decided to see what his summary looked like. Clearly, he's not winning close games due to the bullpen.
.

		Actual	Actual	Sim	Sim		Sim/Actual
Group	IP	ERA	WHIP	ERA	WHIP		ERA	WHIP
1	351	3.14	1.22	4.38	1.51		139%	124%
2	353	3.00	1.28	5.79	1.73		193%	135%
3	213	2.02	0.99	4.48	1.53		221%	154%

Any close games that group has won have been from getting out to a double digit lead and then hanging on for dear life in the 8th and 9th to squeak out the one run victory.

Just a few days ago, I had 14 of 15 teams at .500 or better (all qualifying for round 5) plus all 15 teams had an expected winning% of .500 or better. Even my unlucky Indians team had climbed to just 5 games below .500. Things were looking up.

Since then, I've had a bunch of sessions of 7-8, 6-9 and 5-10. Now I have 5 teams 3+ games below .500 (all out of round 5).

A's: 55-58, .528 Exp Win% (4-7 in last 11 games, 5 total runs scored last 5 games)
Cardinals: 55-58, .560 Exp Win% (2-8 in last 10 games)
Indians: 52-61, .488 Exp Win% (2-6 in last 6 games, now 13-26 in 1-run games)
Braves 55-58, .501 Exp Win% (2-8 in last 10 games, current L6)
Reds 54-59, .532 Exp Win% (3-11 in last 14 games)

Other teams in slump (but still over .500)
Twins (4-9, last 13)
Cubs (4-7, last 11)
White Sox (2-5, last 7)

Just a brutal run.

Some interesting perspective. In tonight's game at Dodger Stadium, the Jays led 7-3 in the top of the 9th. The Dodgers rallied to tie in the 9th and won in the 10th.

Why is this significant? Well, it was the first time the Dodgers had a comeback win in a game they trailed by 4+ in the 9th since 2006. Seems like it happens daily in the sim, but here's a team that has been pretty darn good the past 17 years and hadn't done it once.

It's insane that 9 of my 15 teams are this close to .500 and a 3-game winning or losing streak is the difference of advancing to round 5. It's even more insane that all 9 are on the unlucky side of the equation. Three of these teams (Yankees, Reds, Cardinals) have the second best ExpWin% in their respective leagues (NL/AL).
.

My Teams	W-L Record	Winning%	ExpWin%	Difference	Rank
Yankees 19-37-45-78-02-17	62-59	0.512	0.580	-0.068	63
Red Sox 08-41-58-64-81-18	62-59	0.512	0.568	-0.056	64
Dodgers 20-30-49-70-85-11	62-59	0.512	0.547	-0.035	65
Reds 20-24-44-76-91-14	62-59	0.512	0.541	-0.029	66
Twins 19-31-45-70-86-06	62-59	0.512	0.514	-0.002	71
Cardinals 22-42-57-72-87-06	61-60	0.504	0.577	-0.073	82
White Sox 19-27-58-64-01-14	61-60	0.504	0.522	-0.018	84
Braves 18-28-48-74-96-10	61-60	0.504	0.512	-0.008	86
Athletics 14-30-47-81-94-03	59-62	0.488	0.524	-0.036	104

It's funny how quickly regression can kick in after a nice positive run. The past few weeks, *most* of my teams have been playing well, and for a brief second, I was actually overachieving in 1-run game winning%. I was feeling confident... thinking to myself, "This is how my teams are supposed to be playing". Then BAM! A nice humbling 0-8 0-11 in 1-run games these last 2 3 sessions (14-8 21-13 in 2+ run games).

Consider me humbled.

Just got handed my first 3-12 session of this round. That was fun.

You really can't make this up. We're on a 2-18 run in 1-run games over the past 7 sessions. With the potential #1 overall pick, possible playoffs, or advancement into round 5, the following events have occurred...

'05 Giants fighting for the #1 overall pick, 2-4 last six games
'21 Giants with 5-game division lead with 5 games to play, 0-4 last 4 games (Opponent wins 4 in a row, now up 1 game with 1 to play)
Yankees with 1 game wildcard lead, 0-3 last 3 games (now 1 game out of wildcard)
Athletics only 1 game out of division lead, 1-8 over last 9 games (eliminated from playoffs)
Dodgers only 1 game out of division lead, 3-6 over last 9 games (eliminated from playoffs)
Tigers was #1 ranked overall team, but then lost 2 in a row to team with .399 Exp Win%.
Cubs needed to close out the season with just 2 wins in final 8 games to advance to round 5, but is on a 1-6 run.
White Sox was right in the middle of the division race and wildcard, until they went on an 0-5 run, before winning their last 2 (meaningless) games.
Red Sox had the best Exp Win% in the A.L. and was right in the playoff race until their recent 3-7 run. Now eliminated from playoffs.

Just a brutal run.

Oh and just to stick it in a little further, two opening WISC playoff 1-run losses. Need more vaseline.

All my teams lost Game 162, a mauch finale. That left me with my #19 overall team missing the playoffs by a game and another team missing by 2. So only 3 playoff teams. But I'll advance 5 out of 6, and 4 of them won 90-93 games. Nothing to complain about really.