TEAM COMMENTS
League 4, Pick 1 (#3 overall)
2020-21 Dodgers
FA: 2020 Juan Soto + 2020 Shane Bieber
My phase 4 teams, especially my top teams, faltered a bit down the stretch but I was able to hang on to two Top 8 picks. I had the recent Dodger seasons as the best options both overall and relative to league. Funny enough, the teams on the exact other end of the timeline graded out well too, both 1901-02 and 02-03 PIT. Turns out both of those were the top 2 picks. Had one of those teams been there (especiall 01-02 PIT), I may have taken them due to the dropoff in Lg1, but with them gone, I comfortably took the best of the trio of Dodgers options with 2020-21.
There are two teams in this year-group, but the Rays literally do not have enough pitching to be a viable option. Not that it matters too much as there are multiple similar options for both FA hitters and pitchers. The main draw for this team is the pitching. Heck, I had to leave over 150 innings of *sub-2.00 ERC#* on the cutting room floor, but was able to squeeze in plenty of other ridiculous pitching, plus add Shane Bieber. The weak spot in this pitching staff is Julio Urias and his 2.46 ERC#. Every other pitcher rostered is at 2.11 or better. This rated out as the best pitching option of any team in any of the 4 leagues.
The hitting isn't too bad either. Since I used all 13 pitching spots, that left 12 hitters. Trea Turner, Seager, and Betts are elite options but there's plenty of depth here. 2020 Chris Taylor is probably the worst player but he's got 578 PA and can play multiple positions. I almost added Freddie Freeman, which would have been fitting given he joined the Dodgers shortly hereafter, but instead went with Juan Soto and his ridiculous 1.169 OPS#.
FREE AGENTS:
The Dodgers have lots of multi-position versatility in this timeframe so there's not a need thats too pressing, especially with the DH spot. Freddie Freeman was an intriguing option but Soto's 2020 is so good that even with just 529 PA, he was the best choice. Fun fact: Soto's 529 PA were the lowest for any selected free agent hitter (next lowest: 1995 Mike Piazza, 535 PA). On the pitching side, there are a few similar options but Bieber has the most innings at 209. I did look at deGrom and Devin Williams here, but this team needed the extra innings that Bieber provides.
OUTLOOK: 100 wins
This team is probably not as good as it's projection, just because the projection is just so so high. But they should be really good.
League 4, Pick 2 (#6 overall)
2021-22 Dodgers
FA: 2022 Aaron Judge + 2021 Jacob deGrom
A couple of League 2 Yankees teams went 4th and 5th. Am I missing something on these Dodgers teams? Schwarze did note that he had the 2020-21 version as the best in League 4 but just doesn't like modern teams. Anyway, I'm faced with the next-best Dodgers version (I have 2021-22 over 2019-20 by a bit) or my top option elsewhere, the 1927-28 Yankees. Schwarze had already taken the 1926-27 Yankees, who I had rated highly, but I actually had 27-28 as the top option in Lg2. The worry was that there are 4 available 1927-28 teams and just one Hornsby, who this team really needs. Now, interestingly, the 2nd-best 27-28 option, the Giants, has a Hornsby themselves already so can't clone him. That leaves two other 27-28 options (STL and PHA) both of whom I have below the projected cut line. That said, the risk of someone taking them is too great, especially with such a great option available elsewhere. The final straw for me was the tournament structure. My next 3 picks will be 3rd, 4th, and 5th-round picks. I might get the next pick in League 2 and get the Yankees anyway. However, I likely will pick no higher than 7th in League 4 given I've already picked there. So this is my only chance to double up on the Dodgers. (Alas, pedrocerrano takes the 27-28 Yankees with the final Top 8 pick.)
Anyway, back to these Dodgers. There are a lot of similarities to the 20-21 version but the pitching and hitting are both a touch worse. However, the free agents, especially 2022 Judge are better. While the pitching is a bit worse, it's still the 2nd-best of any team and there is enough of it that I can afford the 92 IP deGrom season with a 0.77 ERC#. On the hitting side, now I get to add Freeman's 2022 year, though I get a worse Bellinger. With Judge though, there will be plenty of offense.
FREE AGENTS:
As I mentioned, Judge and deGrom were the choices. Funny that with the other Dodgers, I considered Freeman as a FA and now with this version you get him on your team! Another fun fact: deGrom's 92 innings are the fewest of any selected FA pitcher (next lowest: 1961 Dick Donovan, 170 IP). I couldn't afford to roster him with the 20-21 version, but this version of the Dodgers has a few more pitchers with high innings totals so I could accommodate deGrom this time.
OUTLOOK: 95 wins
Not quite as good as their 20-21 counterparts and the AL is a bit tougher than the NL, but still have high hopes here.
League 1, Pick 3
1910-11 Athletics
FA: 1911 Ty Cobb + 1910 Ed Walsh
With the PIT teams gone, the rest of the League 1 options are tough to decipher. Except for a good 1914 BOS team, all the teams at the top have multiple options competing for FAs. That's especially important in the early years where you might get a huge 400-inning Walter Johnson or $20m Cobb. Without the ability to lock in a top set of FAs, I instead just went for the best team and that was the 10-11 A's. Excluding FAs, I had them as the 2nd-best team in League 1 after the 02-03 Pirates (however, given better FA options, I had 01-02 Pirates at the top overall). There are lots of A's teams in this era (every year-group from 1909-10 to 1913-14 is available). This one rated the best because while they all have good offenses, this is the last combo that has 550 innings from Bender and Coombs atop the rotation.
The later A's teams are slightly better hitting but much worse pitching so the main competition here was the 1909-10 A's. The pitching is almost identical, the hitting is a bit worse, but there is the possibility for better FAs. 1909-10 has 3 options, and the Cubs will surely get picked, but the Giants are a question. That's important because there's a dropoff after the top 2 hitters and pitchers in 1909-10 free agents. Even with the 2nd pick of free agents it was close and so the uncertainty pushed me to go safer with the 1910-11 version.
FREE AGENTS:
With one of my other Lg1 picks, I went with another 1910-11 team, the Giants, while the third team (Cubs) went undrafted. I decided to stack my better team (this one) and give them the 1911 Ty Cobb and 1910 Ed Walsh. The weakest spot on the A's is 1B but with 3 other strong OFs, we'll just play one of them at 1B to accommodate Cobb in the OF. Walsh is one of the best FA pitchers in this entire round, at least among those not named Walter Johnson.
OUTLOOK: 92 wins
This team ended up #1 in my ratings at the end, thanks to the gift of 1911 Cobb (from myself). However, this is a tough division and I'm always hesitant about my early-century teams as it's not my specialty.
League 2, Pick 4
NYY 1921-22
FA: 1922 Rogers Hornsby + 1921 Red Faber
As I mentioned earlier, pedrocerrano took the 27-28 Yankees that I were hoping would make it here. But I did end up with the 4th pick in this league, which is the first pick up after the Top 8 as 3 teams were picked here. The 1921-22 Yankees stood out at the top. They have a huge Ruth season and unlike 27-28, you're guaranteed a Hornsby to fill the void at 2B perfectly. There is one other 1921-22 option (the Giants), but even if they get picked there are TWO Hornsby FA options. 1922 is certainly better but 1921 Hornsby is a fine consolation prize. The rest of the offense after that is not vintage Yankees, but they're solid enough.
The pitching is...well, the best thing about the pitching is the hitting. The Yankees had some great-hitting pitchers in the early 20s as 3 or 4 of their starting pitchers can hit pretty well. They'll need it as Carl Mays' 2.79 ERC# is the only one under 3.00. And the free agent pitchers are not great...but a couple of them can hit!
FREE AGENTS:
Had the 21-22 Giants been picked, I still could have gone with 21 Hornsby but getting the even better 22 version was a nice gift. He fits perfectly at 2B into the weakest spot in the Yankees lineup. The pitching options weren't as strong, but Red Faber's 2.42 ERC# and 348 innings made him the pretty easy choice.
OUTLOOK: 90 wins
I'm in a tough division with two others I project as top 10 in Lg2. Still, unlike some other Yankees teams, I think this one has a enough pitching to let the hitting do it's job.
League 1, Pick 7
1909-10 Cubs
FA: 1910 Nap Lajoie + 1910 Ed Walsh
Of course redcped took the 09-10 A's right after me, but that opened up the 09-10 Cubs as a great option, since even if the Giants get picked, you still get a top FA hitter and pitcher. I had the Cubs just a hair behind the A's--better pitching and worse hitting for the Cubbies--but the Cubs get to lock in 1910 Lajoie or 1910 Cobb as a hitter and get almost 400 amazing innings from either 1910 Ed Walsh or 1910 Walter Johnson. I had to sweat out a couple picks, but the Cubs made it through and I snatched them up. Interestingly, with the better free agents locked in, I have these Cubs rated slightly ahead of my earlier pick, the 1910-11 A's.
As for the team itself, the pitching is...wow. Mordecai Brown, Orval Overall, and either Walsh or Johnson will pitch over 1000 innings. The bullpen will be a bit worse than them but not much with multiple options in the 2.50 ERC# range. The offense won't be as good but Tinker to Evers to...well, probably not Chance...and company will be solid. Solly Hofman and either Lajoie or Cobb will lead the charge and the defense should be pretty good.
FREE AGENTS:
1909-10 has a top two options on both the hitting side and pitching side, so with the 2nd out of 3 possible picks, this was pretty safe. But it got a little better when the 09-10 Giants weren't picked. I went with Lajoie over Cobb as he can play 1B and 2B. The Cubs don't have much at 1B (not Frank Chance's best years) and while Joe Tinker is solid he has fewer than 600 PA and no great backup, so Lajoie can slide over when needed. I went with Walsh over Johnson as Walsh's pitching quality is better, though Johnson is a better hitter.
OUTLOOK: 87 wins
I think the pitching is going to be really good, but the offense will be a question mark.
League 3, Pick 5
1948-49 Red Sox
FA: 1948 Stan Musial + 1948 Harry Brecheen
My latest "first" pick in a league was in League 3. My top two options were scooped up right before me as barracuda3 took 1961-62 Yankees and pedrocerrano took 1953-54 Indians. No options stood out clearly from the pack. There were two 1957 options (Yankees and Braves), but whoever goes first there has a bit of a dropoff in free agents. The 53-54 Dodgers were interesting but they diminish greatly in value if the 53-54 Yankees are picked as you lose out on Mays and Spahn as FAs. The 48-49 Red Sox were similar in value but less reliant on the FA quality and I'm more confident that the 48-49 Yankees won't get picked (giving me first choice on FAs) than that the 53-54 Yankees won't.
This Red Sox team has poor pitching. Mel Parnell gives a nice 311 innings atop the rotation and will be joined by either 1948 or 1949 Bob Lemon's 300ish innings, but the rest of the staff will just be trying to eat innings. The offense is where this team shines, led by Ted Williams and (hopefully) Stan Musial. But there are 4 other very good Sox hitters here in Dom Dimaggio plus the infield of Stephens, Doerr, and Pesky. League 3 is the weakest league, but I don't love this team. Will be interesting to see how they fare in what should be a pretty balanced playing field I think.
FREE AGENTS:
As expected, the other 48-49 option was not selected. Musial was an easy choice, slotting in to the Red Sox's weakest spot in the outfield. I wrote earlier that I'd take one of the Bob Lemon seasons but after much consternation and internal debate, I instead chose Harry Brecheen. Lemon has about 50-60 more innings and is a very good hitter, but Brecheen's 2.01 ERC# is far superior, plus he doesn't walk guys or give up HRs which should play well. That does mean another 50 innings from what is not a great Sox staff, but hoping the tradeoff is worth it.
OUTLOOK: 85 wins
Certainly the least confident I am among my high picks. The opposite of my 09-10 Cubbies, this team will score but no idea if we can prevent any runs.
League 2, Pick 8
NYY 1936-37
FA: 1937 Charlie Gehringer + 1937 Jim Turner
League 2 is just what good-hitting, bad-pitching Yankees team you want and that was especially true after a couple of 1940s Cardinals teams were picked back-to-back at picks 5 and 6. Toysboys picked the 37-38 Yankees right head of me and this team is quite similar. I actually like this 36-37 team slightly better. Gehringer fits well as a free agent, replacing Lazzeri at 2B who was the weakest starter. He'll join Dimaggio and Gehrig atop the lineup for a potent top 3.
Again, the pitching is pretty poor. Lefty Gomez is very good and Ruffing is solid, but the rest of the staff is pretty mediocre. Whichever FA pitcher gets added will certainly help but will probably be the 3rd starter. There is one other 36-37 option, the Giants, but I don't expect them to get picked. Doesn't matter much here, though, given the free agent options don't fall off much.
FREE AGENTS:
These Yankees don't necessarily need a 2B, but Lazzeri is the weakest spot. If there was a stud OF, I would have taken them, but Gehringer was every bit as good as Joe Medwick and Hank Greenberg. The question became which Gehringer to take as both 36 and 37 are good years for him. I went with 1937 for the quality--fewer PA, but better OBP and better fielding. Turner isn't the most exciting free agent pitcher, but with 274 innings at 2.44 ERC# he will be just fine. I could have gotten a little more quality with someon like 1937 Monty Stratton, but the extra 100 innings from Turner were more needed with the poor back-end of this staff.
OUTLOOK: 88 wins
This team feels very solid. It will be interesting as I'm in the same division as two similar-era teams with 37-38 and 42-43 Yankees teams.
League 3, Pick 12
1957-58 Braves
FA: 1957 Ted Williams + 1957 Frank Sullivan
I didn't have a particular team in mind leading up to this pick. Once toysboys took 1957-58 Yankees at pick 9, that made the 57-58 Braves more attractive as you lock in Ted Williams. I also looked at the 1953-54 Dodgers and the 1956-57 Yankees. Both had big free agent uncertainty. For the 56-57 Yankees, again Ted Williams as the hitting prize but also Herb Score as the clear top pitcher, but you have to sweat out the Braves as the other option and they look likely to get picked. For the 53-54 Dodgers, there are 3 teams in the year-group with CLE already picked, so you're waiting on the 53-54 Yanks. Again a clear top choice at both hitter (Mays) and pitcher (Spahn).
I decided to pass on the uncertainty since the Braves were very close in quality and had the certainty of getting Williams, although the pitching free agents leave a lot to be desired. I really like this team. You get some stars with Henry Aaron, Eddie Mathews, Schoendiest, and Spahn. But you also get some really good part-timers--1957 Bob Hazle is always fun, but also Wes Covington and Bill Bruton give some nice half-seasons. The pitching staff gets some love too with 3 very good relievers with ERC# under 2.50. Should be a fun team to manage.
POST-DRAFT UPDATE: As it turns out, the 56-57 Braves did NOT get picked. I ended up with the 56-57 Yankees rated as the #2 overall team in this league. Congrats to urband who nabbed them with the 2nd-TO-LAST pick of the draft. The 53-54 Yankees ALSO did not get picked, so schwarze got my #4-rated team in League 3 with the 19th pick. Nice work, fellas!
FREE AGENTS:
Teddy Ballgame was an easy choice. My main pitching options were Sullivan, Hoyt Wilhelm, or Jim Bunning. Bunning had more innings but he's got a big HR problem and a worse ERC#, and he only gives you 38 more innings than Sullivan. Wilhlem has a better ERC# at 2.16 vs 2.48 for Sullivan but over 100 fewer innings. Had the Braves had a better staff, I may have opted for Wilhelm, but those extra 100 innings would have gone to some mediocre pitchers. Plus, the Braves have the 3 good relievers I mentioned earlier.
OUTLOOK: 84 wins
I want to like this team but I think it's just because they're (a) not the Yankees, (b) they're balanced, and (c) they fit well together. But the division is touch with both schwarze's 60-61 Yankees and ronthegenius's 52-53 Indians rating similarly. Will hope to just advance this team.
League 1, Pick 18
1910-11 Giants
FA: 1910 Ty Cobb + 1910 Walter Johnson
This pick basically came down to back-to-back Giants teams, either 10-11 or 11-12. And both involved guessing what would happen with the final 6 picks. The 1911-12 year group is super interesting--by my calculations, there is the biggest gap between picking first in the FA draft and last. First pick gets about $40m in free agents (!) between 1911 Cobb and 1912 Walter Johnson. The third-best FAs--let's just go by salary, so 1911 Joe Jackson ($11m) and 1911 Joe Wood ($11m)--are about half that value. The problem is, until somebody else goes first, you can't control it. I felt once somebody did go, then all 3 teams would go. Unless, you're picking 23rd or 24th, there's not much you can do. So that was my worry with the 1911-12 Giants and it turns out I was right--the three 11-12 teams went 20th, 23rd, and 24th.
I had the 11-12 Giants better when ignoring free agents but I decided to play it safer with the 1910-11 version and was still hoping that the 3rd team, the Cubs, would not get taken. In this case, I also had the first 10-11 team, the A's. The free agent discrepancy isn't quite as big, mostly because 1912 Johnson is out of the picture, but it's still large with essentially the same hitters involved and then 1910 Ed Walsh and 1910 Walter Johnson as a clear top two before a drop off to 1910 Russ Ford. By virtue of having the A's locked in, I had the benefit of the option to punt a free agent to my A's if I wanted to, as well.
FREE AGENTS:
As touched on in my 1910-11 A's write-up, I took a hit on this team to improve the A's. That mostly meant taking the lesser Cobb, though he's still very helpful to this squad. I also considered 1911 Joe Jackson and 1910 Nap Lajoie but I preferred Cobb's A-range to man CF. 1910 isn't the best season of Walter Johnson's career, but almost 400 innings with a sub-2.00 ERC# plus strong hitting will be very welcome.
OUTLOOK: 74 wins
My worst team, although some of that is my doing. They also ended up in a brutal division, where I project all 3 other teams better than mine. Will need some luck to get this team through.
League 4, Pick 14
2003-04 Braves
FA: 2003 Barry Bonds + 2004 Johan Santana
I'll admit, the smart pick is to take the team that schwarze took immediately after this, the 2002-03 Braves. The two teams are very similar, of course, with the 02-03 version giving you better pitching, mostly thanks to a good Kevin Millwood season in 2002. The 03-04 version does have JD Drew and a little better offense, but not enough to offset the pitching. No, the reason I went with 03-04 was just to take a shot that nobody took the 03-04 Yankees and I could somehow add 04 Bonds and 04 Randy Johnson, making this team a juggernaut. I knew it was a longshot, but what the heck. Well, that was shortlived as one pick after schwarze took the team I should have taken, toysboys immediately snatched up the 03-04 Yankees.
Still, this team will be fun. The offense should be among the best in the league. Excluding free agents, I rate this offense the best in the league, but schwarze's 2004-05 Cardinals get to add 2004 Bonds to the 2nd-best non-FA offense, so they'll be hard to beat. Sheffield, Drew, and Javy Lopez have monster years, as does Marcus Giles at 2B and I opted for the better-hitting, terrible-fielding 2003 Chipper Jones to be the DH.
FREE AGENTS:
This team is set everywhere but 1B and the 03-04 free agents are loaded with 1B, led by a pair of Pujols and a pair of Helton seasons. Funny enough, I had an error in my spreadsheet that was omitting 2003 Bonds from showing up as a FA option, but ultimately I couldn't pass him up, despite the fact that he (or one of Drew or Sheffield) will have to play out-of-position at 1B.
I also struggled with which FA pitcher to take. I really wanted to take 2003 Gagne, but Johan Santana is very good and going with Gagne meant 150 or so fewer innings that likely had to go to Paul Byrd. We'll take 83 worse innings for 150 WAY better innings, despite how fun it would be to have Gagne and Smoltz at the back of the pen.
OUTLOOK: 81 wins
This team will rake. And it will be fun. But we may lose lots of 10-7 or 12-9 games. Also both 2015-16 Cubs and 2017-18 Astros are really strong teams in my division. Feels like a bubble team that just misses advancement.