If your predictions are right, all 5 of my teams are going to advance. So now it’s on me not to blow it.

I've heard that posting your writeups increase your teams' chances of advancing.

Posted by schwarze on 8/16/2023 12:07:00 PM (view original):
I've heard that posting your writeups increase your teams' chances of advancing.

Might not have time to do more than a quick one tonight.

I went strictly off of my numbers for my projected playoff (and advancing teams). In some cases, I don't even believe some of the numbers. For most of the division winner projections, the best team was far and away the best team. In only a few instances do I think the division races will be close.

The wildcard race and the "others advancing" teams are very tightly packed and I could see me being wrong on quite a number of these predictions. Heck, I don't even believe some of my teams listed as "others advancing" are that good.

It will be fun to see how it all plays out.

Waiting for opening day in a tournament like this is like waiting for Christmas morning as a kid... The anticipation of opening the exact gift you wanted is equivalent to that opening set of games and going 9-4. Of course, when my 13 teams start off the season 5-8, it will feel like opening a pack of socks.

Here is my selection process and predictions. We are fairly deep into the tournament at this point and I generally had middle-of-the-pack picks. Each round is tougher than the last. So realistically, I can expect .500 ball in this round. And after assessing my teams, my best teams are in league 4 (where I forgot there was a DH until I had to pick a FA). So I'm really not expecting much. I'd consider it an accomplishment if I can get 5 out of 9 teams into the next round.

League 1

1905-1906 Chicago Cubs
Pick # 11
All teams were flawed as I felt there was a drop-off and a plateau of available teams that were relatively equal. You could pick great pitching and bad hitting or good hitting but bad pitching. I really did look at every team. I strongly considered the 1919-1920 White Sox (which were picked by ejstockman at #12), but then that'd just open the door for someone else to take the 19-20 Indians and Babe Ruth with them. I went with the 05-06 Cubs because even they had the strongest total pitching staff and a couple good hitters in Chance and Steinfeldt. Also, the 05-06 Giants were good (taken by schwarze at #15) but the 05-06 Pirates and White Sox were weaker choices and I thought there was a decent chance they would be not picked, which turned out to be the case. Free agents are Tully Sparks and Cy Seymour which is a big drop off from schwarze's Cy Young and Nap Lajoie. This is a case where team that picked after me is better because they had better free-agents. While I have a great pitching staff that will keep me in games, my hitting should be near the bottom in runs scored.

Prediction - 82 wins

1912-1913 Philadelphia Athletics
Pick # 16
Well if I went for pitching on my first pick, i'll go for hitting on my 2nd pick. This one also came with 1912 Walter Johnson since the 12-13 Giants were selected by kstober at #8. Frank Baker and Eddie Collins in their primes make this a good offensive team. But they're pretty good defensively for a Round 1 team as well. The pitching is interesting in that there is no true ace, but a lot of guys in the 120 ERC+ area all the way through 1400 innings. So while that's not good, some of the other teams may have better quality at the top but the bullpen may consist of 100 ERC+ guys who will get in significant innings. But really, this wouldn't be doable without the free agents, which I also took 1912 Tris Speaker. Hitting and defense will keep me in games, but when Johnson is not pitching, it will be rough.

Prediction - 81 wins

Posted by schwarze on 8/16/2023 12:31:00 PM (view original):
I went strictly off of my numbers for my projected playoff (and advancing teams). In some cases, I don't even believe some of the numbers. For most of the division winner projections, the best team was far and away the best team. In only a few instances do I think the division races will be close.

The wildcard race and the "others advancing" teams are very tightly packed and I could see me being wrong on quite a number of these predictions. Heck, I don't even believe some of my teams listed as "others advancing" are that good.

It will be fun to see how it all plays out.

Waiting for opening day in a tournament like this is like waiting for Christmas morning as a kid... The anticipation of opening the exact gift you wanted is equivalent to that opening set of games and going 9-4. Of course, when my 13 teams start off the season 5-8, it will feel like opening a pack of socks.

Both schwarze and my system agree on 34 of the 48 teams to advance, but plenty of areas with different opinions. League 4 we agreed on 11 out of 12! But only 7-8 in each of the other leagues. Agree with schwarze that most teams are very tightly packed so should be a fun round to see play out.

PREDICTIONS SUMMARY

owner	div	lg#	pick#	fran	syr	fballmm11	schwarze
pedrocerrano	1:NLE	1	1	PIT	1901	DIV W	DIV W
schwarze	4:ALE	1	2	PIT	1902	ADVANCE	DIV W
footballmm11	6:ALW	1	3	OAK	1910	DIV W	DIV W
redcped	3:NLW	1	4	OAK	1909	DIV W	DIV W
richiebrown6	5:ALC	1	5	BOS	1914	ADVANCE
pedrocerrano	5:ALC	1	6	SFG	1904		DIV W
footballmm11	2:NLC	1	7	CHC	1909	DIV W	DIV W
kstober	2:NLC	1	8	SFG	1912	ADVANCE
barracuda3	2:NLC	1	9	PIT	1908
ybjsports	6:ALW	1	10	CHC	1908		WC
toysboys	3:NLW	1	11	CHC	1905
ejstockman	2:NLC	1	12	CHW	1919	ADVANCE
beallendall	4:ALE	1	13	CHC	1906
redcped	5:ALC	1	14	CLE	1919	DIV W	ADVANCE
schwarze	1:NLE	1	15	SFG	1905		ADVANCE
toysboys	4:ALE	1	16	OAK	1912	DIV W	ADVANCE
barracuda3	4:ALE	1	17	SFG	1903
footballmm11	5:ALC	1	18	SFG	1910
schwarze	6:ALW	1	19	OAK	1913
emanes10	3:NLW	1	20	OAK	1911
ronthegenius	3:NLW	1	21	PHI	1915
calhoop	1:NLE	1	22	SFG	1908		ADVANCE
thejuice6	6:ALW	1	23	SFG	1911	ADVANCE
joerat1	1:NLE	1	24	CHC	1911	ADVANCE	WC
schwarze	1:NLE	2	1	NYY	1926	DIV W	DIV W
steveizzy	4:ALE	2	2	NYY	1942		ADVANCE
pedrocerrano	6:ALW	2	3	NYY	1927	DIV W	DIV W
footballmm11	3:NLW	2	4	NYY	1921	DIV W	DIV W
redcped	5:ALC	2	5	STL	1942	DIV W	DIV W
barracuda3	2:NLC	2	6	STL	1943		DIV W
toysboys	4:ALE	2	7	NYY	1937	ADVANCE	ADVANCE
footballmm11	4:ALE	2	8	NYY	1936	DIV W	DIV W
pedrocerrano	3:NLW	2	9	OAK	1928
kstober	2:NLC	2	10	NYY	1938	DIV W	WC
nocomm999	5:ALC	2	11	OAK	1929
schwarze	6:ALW	2	12	STL	1944
toysboys	3:NLW	2	13	NYY	1935	ADVANCE
barracuda3	5:ALC	2	14	NYY	1931	ADVANCE
3dayrotation	2:NLC	2	15	MIN	1924	ADVANCE
njbigwig	4:ALE	2	16	CIN	1939
schwarze	3:NLW	2	17	SFG	1927		ADVANCE
toysboys	1:NLE	2	18	STL	1941
thejuice6	2:NLC	2	19	NYY	1941		ADVANCE
schwarze	5:ALC	2	20	LAD	1941		WC
calhoop	1:NLE	2	21	OAK	1930
glowguy	6:ALW	2	22	CHC	1928
beallendall	6:ALW	2	23	OAK	1931	ADVANCE
dougsdawgs13	1:NLE	2	24	SFG	1923	ADVANCE
kstober	6:ALW	3	1	BAL	1969	DIV W	DIV W
emanes10	1:NLE	3	2	STL	1967		ADVANCE
barracuda3	2:NLC	3	3	NYY	1961	ADVANCE	DIV W
pedrocerrano	4:ALE	3	4	CLE	1953	DIV W	DIV W
footballmm11	5:ALC	3	5	BOS	1948	DIV W
spinaldog	3:NLW	3	6	CIN	1973
schwarze	3:NLW	3	7	NYY	1960	ADVANCE	DIV W
redcped	5:ALC	3	8	OAK	1971	ADVANCE	DIV W
toysboys	1:NLE	3	9	NYY	1957	DIV W
barracuda3	5:ALC	3	10	MIN	1969		ADVANCE
pedrocerrano	1:NLE	3	11	LAD	1952		DIV W
footballmm11	3:NLW	3	12	ATL	1957	DIV W	ADVANCE
toysboys	4:ALE	3	13	LAD	1955	ADVANCE
schwarze	6:ALW	3	14	CIN	1972		ADVANCE
steveizzy	1:NLE	3	15	LAD	1973
glowguy	2:NLC	3	16	CIN	1961
nordawg	4:ALE	3	17	NYY	1955	ADVANCE	WC
thejuice6	4:ALE	3	18	NYY	1962
schwarze	2:NLC	3	19	LAD	1953	ADVANCE	WC
ybjsports	6:ALW	3	20	NYY	1947
84champs	6:ALW	3	21	BAL	1970
ronthegenius	3:NLW	3	22	CLE	1952	ADVANCE
urband	2:NLC	3	23	NYY	1956	DIV W
darthdurron	5:ALC	3	24	NYY	1963
footballmm11	1:NLE	4	1	LAD	2020	DIV W	DIV W
footballmm11	4:ALE	4	2	LAD	2021	DIV W	DIV W
ybjsports	6:ALW	4	3	CIN	1975		ADVANCE
kstober	3:NLW	4	4	HOU	2018	DIV W	DIV W
pedrocerrano	5:ALC	4	5	LAD	2019	DIV W	DIV W
barracuda3	2:NLC	4	6	ATL	1996	ADVANCE	ADVANCE
redcped	2:NLC	4	7	ATL	1997	DIV W	DIV W
beallendall	6:ALW	4	8	CHC	2015	DIV W	WC
schwarze	3:NLW	4	9	STL	2004	ADVANCE	WC
barracuda3	6:ALW	4	10	HOU	2017	ADVANCE
chisock	4:ALE	4	11	PHI	2010
toysboys	5:ALC	4	12	ATL	1998	ADVANCE	ADVANCE
nocomm999	2:NLC	4	13	ATL	1995
footballmm11	6:ALW	4	14	ATL	2003	ADVANCE	DIV W
schwarze	2:NLC	4	15	ATL	2002	ADVANCE	ADVANCE
toysboys	1:NLE	4	16	NYY	2003
ronthegenius	3:NLW	4	17	NYY	1997
taxman2008	5:ALC	4	18	NYM	1985
glowguy	5:ALC	4	19	CLE	1995
schwarze	4:ALE	4	20	SFG	2002
thejuice6	4:ALE	4	21	HOU	1998
pedrocerrano	3:NLW	4	22	ATL	1993
barracuda3	1:NLE	4	23	OAK	2001
bill_james47	1:NLE	4	24	OAK	1989

League 2

1937-1938 New York Yankees
Pick #7

I don't want to be a risk-taker and not know who my FA are, so this team seemed like a solid choice. I have four sluggers in Dimaggio, Gehrig, Dickey and FA Medwick. Everyone else is average. On the pitching side, Gomez and Ruffing are good-not-great and FA Jim Turner will be my ace. Bottom of the rotation is not so great with Chandler and Hadley battling it out. Bullpen is another area of concern with Ivy Andrews leading with his 1.39 whip. Murphy and Pearson have 1.44-1.45 whips and will see significant playing time.

Prediction - 83 wins

1937-1938 New York Yankees
Pick # 13

This is one of the last teams available that had no FA competition. Free agents are 1935 Arky Vaughn and 1936 Carl Hubbell. Hitting on this team is very good with Dimaggio, Gehrig and Bill Dickey. Pitching is otherwise average with Gomez and Ruffing but tends to get a weak beyond that. So my #4 starter has a 1.46 whip and my setup has a 1.24 whip, but the rest of the pen is 1.38-1.51 whips. What I don't like about this team is that it's very similar to my other team which makes it less fun for me. It's also a weaker version of that team. I really don't see this as anything but an average team.

Prediction - 80 wins

1941-1942 St Louis Cardinals
Pick # 18

At this point I didn't want to take another Yankees squad. I didn't care if they were a better choice. Yes I want to win, but I also want to have fun so I didn't even consider any of the other ones that were available. This is a low pick anyways, so I may as well have fun with it. I figured this squad was different enough. They had good hitting, good defense and good pitching. But other than Mort Cooper, they aren't great at anything. Add on that they were in a pack of three teams fighting for a FA and none of the teams were chosen at this point, made this a dubious choice. The other 41-42 teams were good too and I had opened pandora's box. The other 41-42 teams were selected by thejuice6 at #19 and schwarze with #20. Schwarze will have a stronger team than mine because of Ted Williams My free agents are on the weaker side with 41 Thornton Lee and 41 Cecil Travis.

Prediction - 78 wins

League 3

1957-1958 New York Yankees
Pick # 9

I screwed up. I compared this team to the others. And yes, this team does have the best hitting and pitching combination that I could find out there. Mantle in his prime, Berra, McDougald, Ford, Turley and a solid bullpen. There is a lot of like on this team. Here's the screw-up, I really didn't pay much attention to the FA as I should have. And it would have been easy as this is a grouping of 2 and the 57-58 Braves are a solid team who were selected at # 12 and promptly took Williams and Sullivan. There is big drop-off after that. So my FA are Nellie Fox and and Billy Pierce....yuk. Pierce actually has the highest ERA on my pitching staff (2.01, 2.54, 2.71 & 3.26). Nellie Fox has an OPS of 115+.

Prediction - 80 wins

1955-1956 Brooklyn Dodgers
Pick # 13

I've always liked this team in other juice leagues. They have a great lineup 1-8. Even 1-9 if you have the 55 version of Newcombe (which I do in Round 4 and are currently in the World Series). I did seriously consider rostering the 55 Newcombe over the 56 version since there is no DH, but ultimately decided to go for the pitching over hitting. Newcome and Maglie are solid 1-2, but it gets very weak after that. FA Score will help make it a solid 1-3 and the rest of my bullpen is OK. SS Ernie Banks is not a great choice as a FA, but he's the best I could do. I think this is actually a better team that my other Rd 3 team.

Prediction - 82 wins

Thanks for posting.

League 4

1998-1999 Atlanta Braves
Pick # 12

I am most optimstic about this team compared to my others. I was very happy they lasted this long. Maddux and Millwood are 200 ERC+ and Glavine and Smoltz are also very good. Throw in FA Clemens and that is a 1-5 rotation that can beat anyone. Offensively, Chipper, Galarraga and catching platoon Lopez/Perez will smash the ball. I had forgotten about the DH in this league, so when 98 McGwire was available to me, that was the icing on the cake. The downsides are holes in the OF, 2B, SS and the bullpen. Also the ambiguity of FA choices probably are the reason why they dropped to #12.

Prediction - 86 wins

2003-2004 New York Yankees
Pick # 16

I can't expect much with a low-mid pick but sometimes there is an advantage as there was with my pick. I had been looking at the 03-04 group between the Yankees and Braves. Both were not compelling picks because the only reason to take one of these teams was to take 04 Bonds as your FA. And if you weren't sure you were getting him, there were better choices. FootballMM11 took the 03-04 Braves at #14 and schwarze passed on them with the 02-03 Braves at #15 so this made my pick very easy. The Yankees hitters are all good but not-great 110-120 OPS+ guys. There are no standouts but also no holes either. Mussina is a solid ace, but the SP is very thin after that with aging veterans Clemens, Pettite and Kevin Brown. FA Randy Johnson helps out a lot here. Bullpen features standouts Tom Gordon and Mariano Rivera with the rest being below average.

Prediction - 84 wins

Posted by schwarze on 8/16/2023 6:25:00 PM (view original):
Thanks for posting.

I was told my teams would do better if I did.

League #1 differences (between me and footballmm11)

We have 4 differences of teams advancing. Three of the differences are very close and could go either way. But one is way off.

Details.

I have these two NL teams...
1905-06 Giants (schwarze) +0.1 (std better than league avg)
1908-09 Giants (calhoop) +0.1

... barely ahead of these two teams, which you have advancing.
1914-15 Red Sox (richiebrown6) -0.1
1912-13 Giants (kstober) -0.2

My numbers are so close, I could see any of these 4 teams advancing.

Also, you have thejuice6 advancing and my numbers show that his team (+0.1) is actually equivalent to the two NL teams I have as "others advancing", but he was just a hair below the sixth ranked team in the AL. So he could easily be the 7th AL team to advance (vs 5 NL teams).

The one team we are way off on is pedrocerrano's 1904-05 Giants team. I have him as clearly the best team in the AL Central (at +0.7), ahead of redcped's 1919-20 Indians (+0.2). You don't even have him advancing.

Posted by schwarze on 8/16/2023 7:58:00 PM (view original):
League #1 differences (between me and footballmm11)

We have 4 differences of teams advancing. Three of the differences are very close and could go either way. But one is way off.

Details.

I have these two NL teams...
1905-06 Giants (schwarze) +0.1 (std better than league avg)
1908-09 Giants (calhoop) +0.1

... barely ahead of these two teams, which you have advancing.
1914-15 Red Sox (richiebrown6) -0.1
1912-13 Giants (kstober) -0.2

My numbers are so close, I could see any of these 4 teams advancing.

Also, you have thejuice6 advancing and my numbers show that his team (+0.1) is actually equivalent to the two NL teams I have as "others advancing", but he was just a hair below the sixth ranked team in the AL. So he could easily be the 7th AL team to advance (vs 5 NL teams).

The one team we are way off on is pedrocerrano's 1904-05 Giants team. I have him as clearly the best team in the AL Central (at +0.7), ahead of redcped's 1919-20 Indians (+0.2). You don't even have him advancing.

I do have pedro's 04-05 Giants as the 7th-best team in the AL, just barely behind the juice6, so they are very close. But I have both 19-20 Indians and 14-15 Red Sox moderately ahead in the division.

The biggest gap the other way is calhoop's 08-09 Giants. You have them advancing, but I have them 12th in the NL, mostly because I have their offense 2nd-worst in League 1 (behind 08-09 Cubs). Otherwise, I have all of your advancing teams in my top 7 in the NL (with your 05-06 Giants just a hair behind the 19-20 White Sox).

League #2 Differences

We have five of the six divisions with the same winner. We have 2 other teams both advancing. But we are off on 5 other advancers.

The division winner we don't agree on is in the NL Central. You have kstober's 1938-39 Yankees team winning, but I have their score (+0.4) good enough for a wildcard spot, but significantly behind barracuda3's 1943-44 Cardinals team (+1.2). I have that team as the 4th best team in League 2 while you don't have them advancing. One of us will have egg on our face on this one.

The other teams I have advancing (that you don't include)...
41-42 Dodgers (schwarze) +0.5
41-42 Yankees (thejuice6) +0.3
42-43 Yankees (steveizzy) +0.2
27-28 Giants (schwarze) -0.2

The five teams you have advancing that I don't include...

31-32 Athletics (beallendall) -0.4
35-36 Yankees (toysboys) -0.4
31-32 Yankees (barracuda3) -0.8
23-24 Giants (dougsdawgs) -1.1
24-25 Senators (3dayrotation) -1.3

I can concede the first two on your list could outperform some of the teams on my list. But I'm not really that close on last three on your list. We shall see in about 55 days.

Posted by footballmm11 on 8/16/2023 8:10:00 PM (view original):

Posted by schwarze on 8/16/2023 7:58:00 PM (view original):
League #1 differences (between me and footballmm11)

We have 4 differences of teams advancing. Three of the differences are very close and could go either way. But one is way off.

Details.

I have these two NL teams...
1905-06 Giants (schwarze) +0.1 (std better than league avg)
1908-09 Giants (calhoop) +0.1

... barely ahead of these two teams, which you have advancing.
1914-15 Red Sox (richiebrown6) -0.1
1912-13 Giants (kstober) -0.2

My numbers are so close, I could see any of these 4 teams advancing.

Also, you have thejuice6 advancing and my numbers show that his team (+0.1) is actually equivalent to the two NL teams I have as "others advancing", but he was just a hair below the sixth ranked team in the AL. So he could easily be the 7th AL team to advance (vs 5 NL teams).

The one team we are way off on is pedrocerrano's 1904-05 Giants team. I have him as clearly the best team in the AL Central (at +0.7), ahead of redcped's 1919-20 Indians (+0.2). You don't even have him advancing.

I do have pedro's 04-05 Giants as the 7th-best team in the AL, just barely behind the juice6, so they are very close. But I have both 19-20 Indians and 14-15 Red Sox moderately ahead in the division.

The biggest gap the other way is calhoop's 08-09 Giants. You have them advancing, but I have them 12th in the NL, mostly because I have their offense 2nd-worst in League 1 (behind 08-09 Cubs). Otherwise, I have all of your advancing teams in my top 7 in the NL (with your 05-06 Giants just a hair behind the 19-20 White Sox).

That's interesting. My numbers show calhoop's team to be a slightly above average offensively, especially considering the normalization of the 1908-09 players.

My usage-weighted batting totals shows calhoop's team with the following numbers.
.314 avg#, .394 obp#, .425 slg#, .819 ops#, 125 ops+
League average
.310 avg#, .381 obp#, .449 slg#, .830 ops#, 122 ops+

Better than league average in AVG#, OBP# and OPS+, worse than average in SLG# and OPS#

How you weight these measures may vary, but I have them far from the 2nd worst offense in the league.

But these differences is what makes these drafts fun.