Pedro is a magician. He's got teams ranked 9-10 with lower Exp% than my team sitting in 30th.

This table presented without comment.
.

Owner	Teams	Wins	Losses	Actual Win%	Expected Win%	Diff
-----------------------	-----------	-----------	-----------	-----------	-----------	-----------
schwarze	8	540	532	0.504	0.515	-0.012
pedrocerrano	5	349	321	0.521	0.499	0.022
footballmm11	4	277	259	0.517	0.511	0.006
redcped	4	269	267	0.502	0.522	-0.020
barracuda3	4	255	281	0.476	0.459	0.017
kstober	3	180	222	0.448	0.463	-0.015
steveizzy	2	136	132	0.507	0.504	0.004
ybjsports	2	129	139	0.481	0.474	0.007
toysboys	2	127	141	0.474	0.474	0.000
thejuice6	2	120	148	0.448	0.430	0.018

https://youtu.be/puwoUKhZQbg?si=5MhJ-52oC6xddR64

I have 3 teams hovering around the cut line and I can just see them now....finishing 25th, 26th, and 27th!

I may have something to say about that...
.

24	Jimmies, Willies, Eddies, and an Arky	1	footballmm11	23	67-67	0.529	0.545
--------	-----------------------------------------------------	---------	---------------	----------	---------	----------	---------
25	Into the Cryptic Mist	1	pedrocerrano	24	67-67	0.506	0.486
26	Christy Mathewson & Associates	1	schwarze	5	66-68	0.507	0.500
27	Honus Wagner & Associates	1	schwarze	21	66-68	0.500	0.515
28	Vote for Pedro	2	footballmm11	1	66-68	0.476	0.500

Thru 139 games, here are the teams on the bubble...
.

Rank	Team Name	League	Owner	DraftPick	Record	Exp Win%
--------	-----------------------------------------------------	---------	---------------	----------	---------	----------
22	Dazed and Confused	1	pedrocerrano	8	70-69	0.525
23	That Guy in the Geico Commercials	2	redcped	5	70-69	0.498
24	Hypnotized	1	pedrocerrano	19	70-69	0.463
--------	-----------------------------------------------------	---------	---------------	----------	---------	----------
25	Christy Mathewson & Associates	1	schwarze	5	69-70	0.517
26	Big Hurts and a Dinelson	2	footballmm11	21	69-70	0.507
27	Into the Cryptic Mist	1	pedrocerrano	24	69-70	0.503
28	Honus Wagner & Associates	1	schwarze	21	68-71	0.503
29	Vote for Pedro	2	footballmm11	1	68-71	0.474

Assuming that each team's Exp% is their "true" chance of winning each game, I calculated the chance that they reach .500 or better. We don't know exactly whether that will be the advancement line, but it should be close.

- Currently 17 teams at 94% or better
- 13 teams between 24% and 89% ... essentially that is the bubble, with 7 spots available
- 5 long shots below 10%
- Any team with 66 wins or less appear to be realistically out of it

Rk	Lg#	Team	Owner	W-L	PCT	Exp.%	Chance .500
-----	-----	-----	-----	-----	-----	-----	-----
1	1	Ash Burning on the Sisler	emanes10	91-53	0.632	0.625	100%
2	1	Babe Adams & Associates	schwarze	86-58	0.597	0.625	100%
3	1	Big Ed Walsh & The Smokey Spuds	ronthegenius	84-60	0.583	0.578	100%
4	1	Seven Edds and The Babe	footballmm11	84-60	0.583	0.556	100%
5	2	Sheff & Nomah	Dougsdawgs13	82-62	0.569	0.565	100%
6	1	Tiny, Heinie Get Kiki in the Boudreau	redcped	80-64	0.556	0.591	100%
7	2	Paint It Black	pedrocerrano	80-64	0.556	0.520	100%
8	2	Range Factor	Bill_James47	79-65	0.549	0.589	100%
9	2	Vida Blue & Associates	schwarze	77-67	0.535	0.582	100%
10	1	Walter Johnson & Associates	schwarze	77-67	0.535	0.506	100%
11	2	Purple Haze	pedrocerrano	77-67	0.535	0.491	100%
12	2	Sudden Death	ybjsports	76-68	0.528	0.503	99%
13	2	Stocked with Trout	SteveIzzy	75-69	0.521	0.544	98%
14	1	Jimmies, Willies, Eddies, and an Arky	footballmm11	75-69	0.521	0.539	98%
15	2	The RAMS	richiebrown6	75-69	0.521	0.531	97%
16	1	Whirlpools & Eddies (Cicotte & Collins)	njbigwig	74-70	0.514	0.560	96%
17	2	Our one and only hope	BeAllEndAll	74-70	0.514	0.542	94%
18	2	Chico's Bail Bonds	barracuda3	74-70	0.514	0.504	89%
19	2	Swing and a Miss	DarthDurron	74-70	0.514	0.479	84%
20	1	Dazed and Confused	pedrocerrano	73-71	0.507	0.524	82%
21	1	Red Rocks	ejstockman	73-71	0.507	0.517	80%
22	2	Thome's Homies	toysboys	73-71	0.507	0.516	80%
23	1	Honus Wagner & Associates	schwarze	72-72	0.500	0.516	65%
24	1	Into the Cryptic Mist	pedrocerrano	72-72	0.500	0.511	63%
-----	-----	-----	-----	-----	-----	-----	-----
25	2	Sutton in the Seventies	barracuda3	72-72	0.500	0.458	45%
26	2	That Guy in the Geico Commercials	redcped	71-73	0.493	0.488	37%
27	2	Vote for Pedro	footballmm11	71-73	0.493	0.474	32%
28	1	Hypnotized	pedrocerrano	71-73	0.493	0.458	28%
29	1	Christy Mathewson & Associates	schwarze	70-74	0.486	0.508	26%
30	2	Big Hurts and a Dinelson	footballmm11	70-74	0.486	0.500	24%
31	1	The Ches-bros	barracuda3	69-75	0.479	0.447	5%
32	2	Some Dingers, Mostly Whiffs	redcped	68-76	0.472	0.518	7%
33	2	Jacob deGrom & Associates	schwarze	68-76	0.472	0.452	2%
34	2	This Team Is All Right!	thejuice6	68-76	0.472	0.448	2%
35	2	Bob Gibson & Associates	schwarze	67-77	0.465	0.502	2%
36	1	Five Babes and Four Noodles	redcped	66-78	0.458	0.461	0%
37	1	Five Robin Roberts Means Goodbye	SteveIzzy	66-78	0.458	0.454	0%
38	2	5 Alberts and Todd	kstober	65-79	0.451	0.504	0%
39	1	Stan the Man , Tris and Mr. Howell	kstober	65-79	0.451	0.464	0%
40	1	The Wrong Lombardi	ybjsports	65-79	0.451	0.454	0%
41	2	Ron Guidry & Associates	schwarze	64-80	0.444	0.442	0%
42	2	Diamond Juice	calhoop	64-80	0.444	0.436	0%
43	1	Pistol Pete and the deadball dreamers	glowguy	64-80	0.444	0.429	0%
44	1	This Team Is (Fill In The Blank)	thejuice6	64-80	0.444	0.426	0%
45	2	Errors and Mistakes	Chisock	64-80	0.444	0.419	0%
46	1	Lou, Charlie and Ducky	kstober	63-81	0.438	0.423	0%
47	1	Alexander's Ragtime Band	barracuda3	62-82	0.431	0.425	0%
48	1	Karma Camillians	toysboys	62-82	0.431	0.424	0%

"Exp Adv" is expected # of teams to advance, based on the "Chance .500" column above. As always, will be a lot of schwarzes and pedros in our divisions again next round.

Owner	Teams	Top 24	Exp Adv	W%	Exp%
-----	-----	-----	-----	-----	-----
schwarze	8	4	3.9	0.504	0.517
pedrocerrano	5	4	3.7	0.518	0.501
footballmm11	4	2	2.5	0.521	0.517
redcped	4	1	1.4	0.495	0.515
barracuda3	4	1	1.4	0.481	0.459
emanes10	1	1	1.0	0.632	0.625
ronthegenius	1	1	1.0	0.583	0.578
Dougsdawgs13	1	1	1.0	0.569	0.565
Bill_James47	1	1	1.0	0.549	0.589
ybjsports	2	1	1.0	0.490	0.479
SteveIzzy	2	1	1.0	0.490	0.499
richiebrown6	1	1	1.0	0.521	0.531
njbigwig	1	1	1.0	0.514	0.560
BeAllEndAll	1	1	0.9	0.514	0.542
DarthDurron	1	1	0.8	0.514	0.479
ejstockman	1	1	0.8	0.507	0.517
toysboys	2	1	0.8	0.469	0.470
thejuice6	2	0	0.0	0.458	0.437
kstober	3	0	0.0	0.447	0.464
calhoop	1	0	0.0	0.444	0.436
glowguy	1	0	0.0	0.444	0.429
Chisock	1	0	0.0	0.444	0.419

It’s really fun how all my teams are folding at the finish.

If we went by Exp. %, the cutoff would be .499 or higher would currently advance. These are the 5 teams that are at .499+ Exp% but not currently advancing. Sorry schwarze.

Rk	Team	W-L	PCT	1-Run G	Exp.%	Owner
-----	-----	-----	-----	-----	-----	-----
28	Big Hurts and a Dinelson	73-77	0.487	14-12	0.503	footballmm11
29	Christy Mathewson & Associates	73-77	0.487	21-26	0.499	schwarze
33	Some Dingers, Mostly Whiffs	71-79	0.473	14-23	0.519	redcped
35	Bob Gibson & Associates	70-80	0.467	13-17	0.509	schwarze
40	5 Alberts and Todd	67-83	0.447	13-22	0.499	kstober

Rank	Team Name	League	Owner	DraftPick	Record	Exp Win%
--------	-----------------------------------------------------	---------	---------------	----------	---------	----------
1	Ash Burning on the Sisler	1	emanes10	10	97-54	0.636
2	Babe Adams & Associates	1	schwarze	20	91-60	0.626
3	Big Ed Walsh & The Smokey Spuds	1	ronthegenius	1	90-61	0.586
4	Seven Edds and The Babe	1	footballmm11	9	89-62	0.559
5	Sheff & Nomah	2	Dougsdawgs13	7	88-63	0.574
6	Paint It Black	2	pedrocerrano	2	84-67	0.533
7	Range Factor	2	Bill_James47	10	82-69	0.586
8	Tiny, Heinie Get Kiki in the Boudreau	1	redcped	16	82-69	0.583
9	Vida Blue & Associates	2	schwarze	22	81-70	0.598
10	Stocked with Trout	2	SteveIzzy	23	80-71	0.550
11	Sudden Death	2	ybjsports	8	80-71	0.498
12	Swing and a Miss	2	DarthDurron	19	80-71	0.492
13	Our one and only hope	2	BeAllEndAll	6	79-72	0.551
14	Jimmies, Willies, Eddies, and an Arky	1	footballmm11	23	79-72	0.540
15	Walter Johnson & Associates	1	schwarze	2	79-72	0.495
16	The RAMS	2	richiebrown6	20	78-73	0.523
17	Red Rocks	1	ejstockman	17	78-73	0.522
18	Purple Haze	2	pedrocerrano	14	78-73	0.474
19	Thome's Homies	2	toysboys	9	77-74	0.513
20	Dazed and Confused	1	pedrocerrano	8	76-75	0.518
21	Honus Wagner & Associates	1	schwarze	21	76-75	0.510
22	Whirlpools & Eddies (Cicotte & Collins)	1	njbigwig	12	75-76	0.549
23	Chico's Bail Bonds	2	barracuda3	4	75-76	0.481
24	Sutton in the Seventies	2	barracuda3	15	75-76	0.459
--------	-----------------------------------------------------	---------	---------------	----------	---------	----------
25	Big Hurts and a Dinelson	2	footballmm11	21	74-77	0.506
26	Into the Cryptic Mist	1	pedrocerrano	24	74-77	0.502
27	Christy Mathewson & Associates	1	schwarze	5	74-77	0.500
28	That Guy in the Geico Commercials	2	redcped	5	74-77	0.487
29	Hypnotized	1	pedrocerrano	19	74-77	0.465
30	This Team Is All Right!	2	thejuice6	24	74-77	0.460
31	The Ches-bros	1	barracuda3	14	74-77	0.453
32	Vote for Pedro	2	footballmm11	1	73-78	0.466
33	Some Dingers, Mostly Whiffs	2	redcped	16	71-80	0.519
34	Bob Gibson & Associates	2	schwarze	3	71-80	0.510
35	Jacob deGrom & Associates	2	schwarze	17	71-80	0.437
36	Five Babes and Four Noodles	1	redcped	7	69-82	0.468
37	Ron Guidry & Associates	2	schwarze	11	69-82	0.448
38	Stan the Man , Tris and Mr. Howell	1	kstober	22	68-83	0.467
39	The Wrong Lombardi	1	ybjsports	13	68-83	0.448
40	Five Robin Roberts Means Goodbye	1	SteveIzzy	4	68-83	0.446
41	This Team Is (Fill In The Blank)	1	thejuice6	15	68-83	0.434
42	5 Alberts and Todd	2	kstober	18	67-84	0.497
43	Alexander's Ragtime Band	1	barracuda3	3	66-85	0.435
44	Pistol Pete and the deadball dreamers	1	glowguy	18	66-85	0.426
45	Lou, Charlie and Ducky	1	kstober	11	66-85	0.424
46	Errors and Mistakes	2	Chisock	13	66-85	0.415
47	Diamond Juice	2	calhoop	12	65-86	0.429
48	Karma Camillians	1	toysboys	6	65-86	0.421

Eight teams at 77-78, with 4 above the cut line and 4 below it. Expand that to the 12 bubble teams (6 above and 6 below) and 11 of the 12 belong to four owners.

- schwarze has the last team in and the last team out.
- I have the 2nd-to-last team in and the 2nd-to-last team out.
- pedrocerrano has 4 of the 12 teams surrounding the cut line, with 2 in and 2 out.
- barracuda3 has 3 teams in the bubble group, with 1 in and 2 out.

njbigwig has the other team sandwiched in there at 77-78.

My "bubble" teams played themselves right out of this fun, too. They'd have to win out to advance now, alas.

Posted by redcped on 12/18/2023 3:08:00 PM (view original):
My "bubble" teams played themselves right out of this fun, too. They'd have to win out to advance now, alas.

Yep, your team "Some Dingers, Mostly Whiffs" is the unluckiest team that will probably not advance. Their Exp Win% of .521 is ranked 16th among the 48 teams. The 15-24 record in 1-run games is tied for the third worst.

I'm still trying to figure out how barracuda's "Chico's Bail Bonds" is 78-77 with a .485 Exp Win% despite being 12-22 in 1-run games. To have a negative run differential and be unlucky in close games usually doesn't equate to a team over .500.

The correlation between 2+ run game win% and 1-run game win% is still negative. A team with a .600 win% in 2+ run games, has an expected win% in 1-run games of .487 (based on the regression formula). Basically, in aggregate, the bad teams are getting lucky and the good teams are getting unlucky.