Savage XIV Rosters/Commentary Topic

Posted by ashamael on 3/4/2024 3:16:00 AM (view original):
Take your time, dh! I will work on my teams all week. I worked on them a couple of hours this weekend, but I'll buckle down in the evenings at work when I have more time. I'm encouraged with the start:

Best team:
106.3% usg, 55.6% efg, 60.5% ts, 65.3% ast, 428 3pm, 12.2% tov, 72 defense, 15.8% stocks, 38% orb, 101% drb, 139% crb, 18.48 fp48

Five team average:
103.7% usg, 54.5% efg, 59.8% ts, 65.1% ast, 429 3pm, 13.0% tov, 70.3 defense, 16.8% stocks, 37.8% orb, 97.8% drb, 135.6% crb, 19.33 pf48

Worst team already has higher $/min values across the board (both adjusted for and not adjusted for usg% & minute bloat) than my best team last season and doesn't have the holes defensively that that one did, and the best squad right now has the highest of those same numbers I've ever had. I take those numbers with a grain of salt, but it's still encouraging to see. I probably won't get much better 5TA numbers than these, but you can bet your *** I'm going to make as many builds as I can to squeeze every possible ounce of value out of every minute.

Current prediction of finish:
Are those percentages, like, an average of all minutes across teams? Like, does "103.7% usg" under the five-team average mean that your teams will average having that much usage on the floor, when looking across all lineups? That, to me, would suggest a number of lineups under that level that are probably paying the team usage penalty in a decent number of them. But I may be misunderstanding, because candidly I have no idea how to compile these sorts of team averages you guys do. I just sort of eyeball it.
3/4/2024 12:03 PM
I'm not smart enough to have built formulas that account for efg% or to% based on usage AND minutes.
3/4/2024 1:00 PM
Posted by dontburnearl on 3/4/2024 1:00:00 PM (view original):
I'm not smart enough to have built formulas that account for efg% or to% based on usage AND minutes.
It’s a long formula but it isn’t to difficult to do in excel imo
3/4/2024 1:57 PM
Also I’m going to apologize I was busier than I expected today. I won’t be able to finish reviews until Thursday probably.
3/4/2024 1:58 PM
Posted by tarheel1991 on 3/4/2024 12:03:00 PM (view original):
Posted by ashamael on 3/4/2024 3:16:00 AM (view original):
Take your time, dh! I will work on my teams all week. I worked on them a couple of hours this weekend, but I'll buckle down in the evenings at work when I have more time. I'm encouraged with the start:

Best team:
106.3% usg, 55.6% efg, 60.5% ts, 65.3% ast, 428 3pm, 12.2% tov, 72 defense, 15.8% stocks, 38% orb, 101% drb, 139% crb, 18.48 fp48

Five team average:
103.7% usg, 54.5% efg, 59.8% ts, 65.1% ast, 429 3pm, 13.0% tov, 70.3 defense, 16.8% stocks, 37.8% orb, 97.8% drb, 135.6% crb, 19.33 pf48

Worst team already has higher $/min values across the board (both adjusted for and not adjusted for usg% & minute bloat) than my best team last season and doesn't have the holes defensively that that one did, and the best squad right now has the highest of those same numbers I've ever had. I take those numbers with a grain of salt, but it's still encouraging to see. I probably won't get much better 5TA numbers than these, but you can bet your *** I'm going to make as many builds as I can to squeeze every possible ounce of value out of every minute.

Current prediction of finish:
Are those percentages, like, an average of all minutes across teams? Like, does "103.7% usg" under the five-team average mean that your teams will average having that much usage on the floor, when looking across all lineups? That, to me, would suggest a number of lineups under that level that are probably paying the team usage penalty in a decent number of them. But I may be misunderstanding, because candidly I have no idea how to compile these sorts of team averages you guys do. I just sort of eyeball it.
Team usage will never drop below the ten point threshold, as there is at least two tier three and one tier five players on the court for all five teams at all times. Well. It shouldn’t, but the sub logic is still broken after all these years so a foul out and/or clear the bench scenario, but they can and will happen anyway.

Individual penalty, yes, going to flirt with that but I’ve found that even stacking 110+ this is largely unavoidable at all times because the sim will sim. You’ll have Harden shoot 12 times and have Ben Wallace shoot 18 times and you’re like “wtf?!” Of course, you’ll have a game where Harden shoots 48 tunes so you get burnt there a second time. Does that mean I should have aimed for more? Possibly. I still like a three pronged attack in general but wanted to make use of mailman’s excellent ts%.

in answer to your first question, each team’s stats are weighted by expected minutes and usage. For the five team average it is simply that: the average of all five teams’ weights. I made a template in Google docs that I’ve been using (and tweaking haha) back in early savage days where I copy/paste seasons in and it does the math for me. So I end up with like 50+ tabs every Savage season where I’ve manually tried a ridiculous number of combinations looking for the best overall value and stat distribution while meeting minimum thresholds for usage and a few other things. None of it’s automated except the math, and even then I do have to change the expected minutes column a bit when I don’t have a nice, even ten man rotation.

That’s where this thing gets fun to me. Just trying all different combinations and setting the numbers change.
3/4/2024 2:28 PM
Posted by dh555 on 3/3/2024 6:24:00 PM (view original):
5. robusk

1. Michael Jordan

I think MJ has settled nicely into the consensus #5 player in Savage. I'll concede Giannis as #4 even though I'm kinda scared to use him in this league - I'd much rather start with MJ. It's a nice safe warm feeling knowing you have a 37-40 mpg #1 scorer for all 5 teams who gives you elite defense at the 1-2. 3s are really the only flaw you have to worry about. I had a tough time deciding between 92-93 and 95-96 as the 5th season when I used him last season so I'll be curious to see which one you went with. I know you can win from any draft slot but it's extra terrifying to see you starting with MJ.

2. Shawn Marion

Marion is such a great late 2nd to pair with MJ. It's a long wait until the 3/4 turn and it really helps to have a flexible player like Marion who plays heavy mins in 4/5(07-08?) seasons. He's not a great 3pt shooter but the extra splash of 3s he gives you at the 3 or 4 is important when MJ is your 2. His 02-03 season could also play the 2 to pair with 88-89 MJ in a scary looking backcourt. I know you kinda pushed back on this earlier, but when I think of robusk teams, low tov% is what comes to mind. Marion definitely fits this bill and combined with MJ gives you an incredible start with tov%.

3. Dikembe Mutombo

Oh shiiiiit. Dikembe drops to this spot again? It was an easy pick for me last season and I imagine it was pretty easy for you as well. Sure, he can only play the 5 and loses some D when covering the 4. He doesn't have elite creb% or efg% for most of his seasons either. Tov% maybe a lil higher then you'd like. But you can't ignore the 100 D with insane blk% combined with that many mins still available in the late 3rd. Bill Walton went with the next pick. Marcus Camby went earlier. These guys don't come close to the amount of high quality mins Mutombo provides. Scary to see you get a player like that knowing how well you do at drafting and fitting in those lower min middle round studs.

4. Chauncey Billups

This seems awfully familiar. WTF robusk? Just straight up copying my team from last year at this point. I expect better from you. I don't ever remember you using him before. I have some success with him last year and all of a sudden he's on your radar? - doesn't add up. I mean, I'm sure there were other options out there that perfectly compliment MJ in the backcourt. You're telling me you couldn't find any other guys who shoots a ton of 3s at 40% while giving you the right amount of usg%, ast%, and D to compliment the first 3 picks? You just happen to pick the one that I used? I bet you didn't even know about his sneaky good FTAs. Pathetic.

5. Chris Andersen

I'm glad you decided to stop copying me and got back to drafting your kind of players. It's the middle rounds now so that means low minute, high efg% role players for robusk. I used to be like, "How is he going find enough quality mins taking a guy like Rob Williams in the 5th?" But a few Savage title seasons later and I'm wondering when those guys will start going in the 4th. You have kinda changed the draft board in that respect. Birdman is a great fit since he can play the 3 and 4 and allows you to possibly move Marion to the 4 in some lineups. I'm kinda surprised you didn't go with Michael Porter here though.

6. Ivica Zubac

Another robusky type pick. He brings that high efg% paint scoring and more importantly for this team, high oreb%. Mutombo covers his biggest weakness, defense, at the 4/5 but he really drops to concerning D levels when switched to the 3. Small concerns tho. I'm starting to get a sinking feeling the robusk 3-peat is inevitable.

7. Hot Rod Williams

Some hope! Everyone snatches up all the other usual robusk picks and I'm guessing you had to shift gears and take Hot Rod earlier than you would have liked to. I remember when you could get him in the 10th or later. Thanks ash. You have to pay more for defense these days(Terry Tyler wasn't even available) so it makes sense to grab it while you can here. He has two really nice seasons and some others that can be used if necessary that won't hurt you too bad.

8. Kevin Johnson

I think you definitely needed some usg% + ast% behind Billups so getting KJ here was big. You can start his great 96-97 season which allows the worst Billups season to shift to a backup role(or not used at all depending on the team). Lack of 3s is concerning but I'm not sure there was a better option available that did shoot 3s. Maybe 3s will be the thing that can derail the 3-peat? You gonna give us a chance robusk?

9. Troy Murphy

I guess that's a no. Ughhh kind of a perfect fit. You can throw his two usable seasons on the teams that need 3s the most. Troy also provides elite dreb% for any teams that might need that as well. The defense is horrendous but you have good defenders around him at the 3-5. The low oreb% can be matched with Hot Rod/Birdman and their high def/oreb seasons at the 3. This isn't good.

10. Vince Carter

Really? Vince is just gonna be sitting there as the perfect MJ backup in the 10th? Even has the super low tov% to match. That's it, I'm calling it. You are the favorite to win it all in Savage XIV.

11. Mo Bamba

Here's Troy Murphy lite(with better defense) added to the mix. Awesome.

12. Ryan Anderson

Sure. Why not. Might as well add the OG 3pt/reb% guy at the 3 too. He was my 12th round target too. You suck.


Another stellar draft for the Savage GOAT. Plenty of usable mins. Flexible seasons. No major weaknesses. Not sure you're elite at anything(maybe tov%?) so there's that I guess. Looking forward to seeing how you put the teams together.

Prediction: Top 5 finish. Favorite to win it all



Nice write up, you like the team a lot more than I do. Top 5 seems high, maybe 5-10. Back half of the draft wasn't my best work and some rushed picks, several guys I have never used in Savage, some I have never used in any league (Billups, K Johnson, Murphy, Mutombo) so not sure I will make the best use of them.
3/4/2024 8:30 PM (edited)
chewy3344

1) LeBron James - chewy is elite and I am interested to see which five seasons he uses. Looking at his roster it appears that LeBron will play point guard. I'm also interested in seeing how chewy builds around LeBron. Most people, given the first pick, will take LeBron, even though LeBron teams average only 42 wins and have won only 2 titles. Maybe chewy can improve on this.

2) Andre Drummond - rebounds, rebounds and more rebounds. I wonder if LeBron teams don't do well because of a rebound deficiency. I would have probably taken Bam Adebayo here because he shoots better, passes better and plays better defense. Jimmy Butler would have been fun here to team with LeBron in the backcourt, but Drummond is most likely the best pick. I just don't like him because he can't shoot free throws and because he punched Kyle Korver in the face back in 2015. This makes me wonder how often I draft a player because I like him, not because he is the best player or the best fit. Oh God, I'm starting to sound like Midge. Andre Drummond teams average 40 wins and have 0 titles.

3) Alonzo Mourning - I like this pick. Some excellent defense and an inside scoring punch. Without looking at all of the seasons Mourning seems to be a good fit next to ******* Drummond. Mourning teams have averaged 38 wins, but he has won 3 titles. I would assume that his 55% shooting season was responsible for the three titles. Maybe chewy is trying to have five teams go 41-41.

4) Robert Parish - Another good big. I would think that Robert Parish would start on some teams instead of Mourning. It looks like a pretty solid three big rotation. Parish teams average 41 wins and he has 3 titles. I stand by my theory that chewy is going for five 41-41 teams.

5) Brandon Clarke - A really good "other". He only has three or four seasons and he doesn't play much, but when he does play he plays very well. He averages 43 wins and has won 4 titles, which is pretty good. After looking at the hall of fame numbers, most players hover around the 41 win mark. Now that I know that am I going to keep talking about it? Probably.

6) John Henson - A PF who will play SF for chewy. He is usually 100% at SF, he usually plays good defense. So far it looks like he will have good rebounding, but I'm beginning to wonder about his assist levels. Henson teams average 39 wins and have won one title.

7) Tobias Harris - Some shooting and rebounding at SG. The usage% doesn't line up well with Clarke, but I'm sure chewy will figure it out. Harris teams average 43 wins and he has won two titles. I would not be surprised to see him add another title this season.

8) Kermit Washington - I'm starting to see a pattern here. Chewy likes drafting big, strong men who hit other men in the face. Rudy never looked the same after the doctors rebuilt his face. Kermit is just more John Henson, which isn't a bad thing. Crap, Sukow nailed it. Kermit's team have averaged 43 wins and he has 7 titles. Nice work, One Punch Man.

9) De'Anthony Melton - nice backup guard, I would think he would play well with Ja Morant or LaMelo Ball. Good defense, some threes, some assists, as far as I know he hasn't punched anyone in the face. The season I like to use hit 100 3-pointers. kinoa would take that season and Melton would make 225 3-pointers. Let's see how chewy does with it. Melton tens average 43 wins an he has 2 titles.

10) Marvin Williams - One thing I learned this draft was that I can't take Marvin Williams in the 11th round when chewy already took him in the 10th round. He has only one season that I would want to use, but that one season has 152 3 pointers at 40% and a turnover percentage of 7.1. Terry Tyler keeps walking around my team's locker room asking where Marvin Williams is. His teams average 43 wins and he has won four titles. Excellent!

11) Ja Morant - Here we go again. Ja Morant punched a guy in the face! It was a 17 year old kid, does that count? (Judge says yes!) What we have here is a failure to communicate a backup point guard for LeBron with lots of usage. I sincerely hope that Morant can stay healthy in the future and make some better life decisions and get his career back on track. He is so fun to watch play basketball. Ja Morant teams average 35 wins and he has won one title.

12) LaMelo Ball - Another high usage backup point guard for LeBron. I assume chewy will take the best five seasons from his last two picks and the other five seasons will be getting coffee, carrying luggage, etc. He has a 44 win average and one title.

Batman - LeBron James. Period.

Robin - I would go with Alonzo Mourning here, great defense and some scoring punch.

Alfred - Andre Drummond gets the nod here, doing all the dirty work like getting rebounds and punching people in the face.

What I like - He has LeBron James and a whole lot of rebounding. That is a good thing.

What I am concerned about - Is there enough assist%? I know the current trend is barely enough assist% to get by and super low turnover%, but if you're at 45% on assists, you're just giving back the 2% bump you got from playing up tempo. Also, are there enough threats from deep to keep people away from a -2 defense?

Random Midge thought - I would like to see a team with Andre Drummond, Kermit Washington, Rudy Tomjanovich and Kyle Korver.
3/4/2024 6:43 PM (edited)
“Oh God, I'm starting to sound like Midge.“

Love it.
3/4/2024 9:57 PM
Putting together the rosters is a pain in the ***, but I wouldn't trade it for anything. Some more thoughts on my roster now that I'm mostly done assembling the teams.
  • I've got KD 100% at SG and Horford nearly 100% at SF which made it a lot easier to shore up rebounding. I had to get creative with a few teams but usage didn't really end up being an issue either, 4 of my 5 teams are at above 107.5 wUSG and no problems with getting to 10 points
  • Once again, Calderon was a terrible pick - thanks for the eval jcred, you were definitely right on that one. I'm both playing him more than I'd like (~75 minutes currently, could cut with some more Brandon) and also not getting what I want out of him - defense, steals, or rebounds, pick two. Still, the passing is kind of fun and I'm fine on turnovers.
  • I don't hugely regret Horford. I needed SF minutes and it let me lean into the combo forward build which might be my saving grace *if* I can manage to use the switchability to minimize the downside of my worst defenders. I could have made a better pick in the spot but I'd call it about average, not bad.
  • The defense is dirty though; the only silver linings there are blocks and fouls. I'm really worried about it. Guards should be OK, but ... well I don't want to get too into it, I'm sure some managers will take better advantage than others.
  • It's more midrange than I usually go for but I've got 3s out the wazoo along with a host of high PNT, high EFG bigs, so I still think we'll be pretty tough to guard.

Plus: TS%, 3s, towels
Solid, within thresholds: boards, passing, usage, blocks
Minus: steals, defense, FTAs

The defense is so bad that the floor on this season is lower than normal imo, but I'm definitely still targeting a top 5 finish. The optimistic take is that I'll get back on offense what I'm giving away on defense, but I worry that won't be the case, and that I won't win the possession battle by as much as I did last season either - I'm comfortable with my TO% but still looking at ~2 more TOPG than last Savage.

Manu/Calderon x3/T Brandon x2.5
KD (Manu x4, Mirotic x1)
Horford/Ed Davis x3/David Lee x2/Mirotic x3
J Allen/T Bryant/others not playing SF
Whiteside/McGee
3/5/2024 12:00 AM
Why do you like Korver so much Midge? I think he has a pretty punchable face.....
3/5/2024 11:06 AM
Posted by jcred5 on 3/5/2024 11:06:00 AM (view original):
Why do you like Korver so much Midge? I think he has a pretty punchable face.....
3/5/2024 1:35 PM
Wow I never realized how much Kyle Korver looked like Kevin Malone until now
3/5/2024 1:58 PM
I think I'm done. These are my starting lineups. eFG/TO% weighted by usage. The bench usually has a little more usage than the SLs thanks to Yao spelling Tyson, so I'm not worried about possession penalties.
USG eFG DEF CRB% AST% TO% ORB% DRB%
103.5 60.98 77 135.6 72.5 15.09 40.6 95
99.1 61.99 75 134.9 64.8 13.89 39.3 95.6
100.8 57.8 72 142.8 56.8 13.8 41.2 101.6
104.2 56.37 78 136.4 69.1 15.2 45.5 90.9
107.2 56.38 77 124.7 65.5 14.4 40.6 84.1
3/5/2024 3:31 PM
Before i get as frightened as I feel, what % of total minutes are your starters playing?!
3/5/2024 4:09 PM
Well those weighted efg% numbers seem pretty insane - I hope there aren't many teams with those kind of numbers, lol. But I guess that's the Curry effect. I would be surprised if any of my teams are over 57% or so when weighted by usage, even with the best Jokic seasons.

edited to add: well I missed that those were only the starting lineups, and not the whole team's weighted average, which at least makes me feel a little better.
3/5/2024 5:11 PM (edited)
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