Twist & Clones Tournament - Writeup Topic

If pre-1901 seasons had been allowed, Hughie Jennings would have found his way onto some rosters because as Tigers manager he kept playing himself once or twice a year up until he was 49 in 1918.
10/25/2024 7:17 PM
Posted by schwarze on 10/25/2024 6:56:00 PM (view original):
I had to look this up, but Nick Altrock played 1 game for the 1933 Senators. He was 56 years old at the time. kstober is using his 1904 and 1905 seasons. He is also using 1945 Ray Prim, who was a 26-year old rookie for the 1933 Senators.
That is a great find! I probably would have missed that because Altrock was a pitcher and I never would have known to scroll down BBR to find that one at bat in 1933.
10/25/2024 8:04 PM
Thanks guys. The Altock/Prim find was a good one but I balanced it out when picking the 2011 Cardinals for the Carpenter, Wainwright, Pujols combination only to find out that Waiwright did not play for the Cards in 2011.
10/25/2024 9:04 PM
Posted by kstober on 10/25/2024 9:04:00 PM (view original):
Thanks guys. The Altock/Prim find was a good one but I balanced it out when picking the 2011 Cardinals for the Carpenter, Wainwright, Pujols combination only to find out that Waiwright did not play for the Cards in 2011.
ya. that one shocked me when you took it... i had been annoyed when looking at the teams that he had missed the whole season.
10/25/2024 11:03 PM
Anybody else want to share?
10/27/2024 2:20 PM
Posted by schwarze on 10/27/2024 2:20:00 PM (view original):
Anybody else want to share?
Right now i am regretting not using 1916 ruth for my Yankee team.
10/27/2024 3:28 PM

1963 Dodgers Franchise:

I Filtered Pitchers 1950-69 using > 150 IP and $/IP > 32000 and Sorted by Year to Find

Starters
Pitcher Role % G W-L SV IP/162 ERA OAV WHIP K/9 BB/9 Salary
Sandy Koufax '65 (L) 100 43 26-8 2 336.0 2.04 .179 0.86 10.25 1.91 16.14M
Don Drysdale '64 (R) 100 40 18-16 0 322.0 2.18 .207 0.97 6.64 1.91 12.05M
Sandy Koufax '63 (L) 100 40 25-5 0 311.0 1.88 .189 0.87 8.86 1.68 14.41M
Don Drysdale '65 (R) 100 44 23-12 1 309.0 2.77 .232 1.09 6.14 1.93 10.21M

Also have 1961 and 1964 Catcher Johnny Roseboro with PH 43 and 57 CS Pct

Do not know how it will stack up Total Salary wise but like this Team in actual

Ballpark: Dodger Stadium (HR LF/RF:-1/-1 1B:2 2B:-4 3B:-3)

After Chiefs Game will Finish Setting LineUp and Settings
Starters
Name (Bats) Pos Order % PA/162 AB/162 HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG Salary
Jim Gilliam '56 (S) 2B* 1 100 738 625 6 43 21 .300 .399 .396 7.15M
Willie Davis '69 (L) LF* 2 100 540 498 11 59 24 .311 .356 .456 4.82M
Wally Moon '61 (L) DH* 3 100 591 488 17 88 7 .328 .434 .505 4.88M
Tommy Davis '62 (R) CF* 4 100 699 653 27 153 18 .346 .374 .535 5.98M
Frank Howard '70 (R) 1B^ 5 100 706 566 44 126 1 .283 .416 .546 6.08M
Lee Walls '58 (R) RF* 6 100 606 540 24 72 4 .304 .370 .493 4.59M
Johnny Roseboro '61 (L) C * 7 100 486 414 18 59 6 .251 .346 .459 4.25M
Ken McMullen '69 (R) 3B* 8 100 642 562 19 87 4 .272 .349 .425 5.97M
Maury Wills '62 (S) SS* 9 100 746 683 6 48 104 .299 .347 .373 5.93M
10/27/2024 3:59 PM (edited)
I don't have much to share due to embarrassment. lol. I made my first pick on page 16 (late to the party) by taking one of the Pedro years left before it closed down. Yanks, Dodgers and Giants closed. The next pick I research better, but most were already gone. Every time I found a hidden gem it was already picked. The White Sox with Walsh and Cicotte, Fournier, Chase and Roush to fill out the team. Similar teams around this year so it's going to be rough. I did make some mistakes by first taking the 2024 Braves then switching to a wrong year 1916 while I was on the road and didn't realize it...
I Believe this is the first time I tried this tournament and I wish I could have started from the beginning, but this should be good experience and I may get lucky with one of my 11 teams.
10/27/2024 6:20 PM
Picks 1 and 2:
DET2013
CHC2004

With the 24-hour rule, I had to get my clock started while doing research on the fly. As is usually the case in these leagues, you learn on the fly during the draft. So at this point, I wasn't even thinking about divisional alignment or how similar adjacent teams would be or AL/NL league quality. All those became more apparent and more of a factor as the draft went on.

Anyway, I whipped up some quick heuristics to find some options. I'm the opposite of contrarian23 (the contrarian to contrarian?) and prefer more modern teams. I usually like to fill up all 13 pitching spots, or at least 12 of them, and then make the offense work with the leftover 12-13 spots. This requires a lot of relievers and I did in fact end up with many teams with only 2-3 true starting pitchers.

2013 DET stuck out with some of the 2010s Tigers mainstays led by Miguel Cabrera but I also ended up with clones of Victor Martinez and Torii Hunter. Most importantly, the pitching is elite as you get a strong bullpen of Benoits and Dotels and Smylys but also 4 starters between Verlander and Scherzer. I have this group as the #1 pitching team in the franchise. Of course, had I looked a little harder, I'd have seen that 2014, 2011 and 2012 are all right there with them. In fact, that's my division in the AL West. 2014 likely also has better hitting thanks to the presence of Ian Kinsler. Would guess this era gets most of the AL advancement spots but making the playoffs will prove difficult.

2004 CHC was, in hindsight, a much better pick. Yes, Maddux was back for his second stint in Chicago and he's joined by decent but not great pitching. But the offense is significantly better than surrouding years as it's the only one in which Sosa and Moises Alou (last years with Chicago) and Derrek Lee and Nomar (first years) overlapped. In fact, this got me thinking so I looked up how each season compares in my valuation system compared to surrounding seasons. This Cubs team grades out as one of the best combinations at overall quality AND quality above adjacent teams. Unfortunately, my 2013 DET grades out at the very bottom (as does my 2001 ATL pick coming up next). Anyway, it's a pretty good offense with clones of Sosa, Lee, Alou, and Nomar plus an Aramir Ramirez sprinkled in. Pitching is pretty good with two Madduxes and a solid bullpen.

Picks 3 and 4:
ATL2001
PIT1991

As I mentioned, 2001 ATL is a great team but they're smack dab in the middle of the Braves great run and all the teams from 1995 to 2003 were picked. My division ended up being 98 through 01 so it's gonna be a gauntlet. Now, I do think 2001 is the best of that era (and the best of all the Braves teams) because you're the only team with Caminiti and Gilkey, plus one of only 3 with Marcus Giles (2B is notoriously a weak spot for the Braves). The bullpen also gets the Steves (Karsay and Reed) making it the best 'pen of the group. With Caminiti in the fold, I'll be playing Chipper out of position at 1B (Brogna does give a good partial here as well) as well as at DH. Two Andruw Joneses in the OF. Lopez/Perez dynamite duo at catcher. The pitching is elite with two Madduxes, two Smoltzes (one in relief), a Millwood and a bunch of good relievers. Competition will be stiff, but I think this team has enough separators to win the division.

Another tough era, though not as long, but my 1991 PIT pick is right in between 1990 and 1992 and we all ended up in the same division. 1990 is probably the best of the group thanks to Moises Alou and Jerry Reuss, but barracuda3 took them 2nd overall among Pirates. 1992 went right ahead of me (7th) and my choice was 8th. Still, I have these as the 3 best Pirates years so hopefully can eke out a wild card spot and advance with 90+ wins for a good pick next round. Plus, this team will be fun--two Bondses, two Bonillas, two Van Slykes, two Jay Bells. Bonillas defense at 1B/3B is weak and catcher (LaValliere + Slaught) isn't great, but that's a fun offense. Drabek and Rick Reed will try to win enough games with a smattering of solid relief arms (amazingly, no clones among them with 7 unique relievers).

Picks 5 and 6:
LAD2022
CIN1978

In retrospect...whoops! Holy crap the 2021 Dodgers are stacked AND get Albert Pujols, Max Scherzer, and Trevor Bauer in their lone years in Dodger blue. 2022 does counter with Freddie Freeman and Craig Kimbrel at least, plus Trea Turner is on board which he's not for our other division-mates 2020 and 2024. This era is so stacked that I had 2017-19 as 3 of the top 10 seasons and they didn't even get taken. This is another team where a playoff spot may be a tall task but advancement should be doable. My lineup is Betts x2, Freeman x2, Turner x4 (Trea and Justin) plus a Bellnger and Muncy for lefty power. I went with Muncy's bat over another Bellinger glove, meaning I'll play one of my Freddie Freemans in RF. Pitching will be awesome compared to normal teams but average in the Dodgers AL. I went with 2016 Kershaw's 149 IP as two Buehler clones and two Gonsolins gave me enough innings. A pair of Kimbrels along with Treinen, Phillips and Chris Martin form a formidable bullpen. I probably can't beat out jfranco77's 2021 for the division title but maybe we have enough for a wild card run.

1978 CIN isn't in as much of a predicament but 1977 is likely slightly better thanks to some more pitching with Gary Nolan, Woodie Fryman, and Joe Horner (they rightly went #1). Still, I have 1978 as the 2nd-best CIN team so maybe a wild card berth could happen. The one advantage I do have over 1977 is Ken Henderson in CF, though it's a small one with plenty of other options there. The lineup is awesome with two Roses, two Fosters, two Benches and of course two Morgans. I also rostered some great partial seasons with Champ Summers, two Griffey Sr. seasons, and a Rick Auerbach. My pitching staff is nearly all clones with two each of Seaver, Soto, Sarmiento, and Bair. I added a Dale Murray and Tom Hume. Reds teams are always fun.

Picks 7 and 8:
PHI2019
STL2007

I like my 2019 PHI pick. 2020 did go just ahead of them but we luckily ended up in different divisions. The offense is mostly a wash as all the studs are the same and there's not much difference between Neil Walker and Cesar Hernandez at 2B. 2020 does get Zack Wheeler but my 2019 gets much more in the way of relievers--David Robertson, Pat Neshek, Drew Smyly, Seranthony Dominguez, etc. The separator for these teams is Arrieta (2018 to 2020), who joins Nola to lead the staff. I also get McCutchen (2019 to 2021) to pair with Harper in the OF. The rest of the lineup is a bit of a hodgepodge but Segura, Realmuto and some decent partial seasons should be enough with the top half of the lineup and elite pitching.

2007 STL lingered around probably because 2005 is so dominant in this era of the Cardinals. Mostly that is Larry Walker adding to the Pujols/Edmonds/Rolen/Molina core. 2004 also has Walker but no Wainwright. 2007 does have a little bit more pitching thanks to adding Percival, Pineiro, and Springer to the bullpen. The offense can't match up to losing Walker but Ludwick, Rolen, and Chris Duncan all have some pop to fill in at DH/RF. Unfortunately, we did land in the 2005 division so again, winning the division will prove difficult. I clearly should have looked at division alignment much sooner!

Picks 9 and 10:
MIN2005
OAK1987

2005 MIN was the 3rd pick in its mini-era, right behind 2007 and 2006, though I have 2005 slightly ahead of the others. Most importantly, I avoided the other two in my division. 2005's biggest advantage is Bret Boone, who will actually play 2B and 3B for me (2006 and 07 have Luis Castillo and either Cirillo or Phil Nevin). 2005 also gets Francisco Liriano. But mostly this is the Mauer/Morneau/Hunter era of Twins baseball, offensively. And of course Johan Santana and Joe Nathan on the pitching staff. I added two Michael Cuddyers and a Jason Bartlett to my clones of Mauer/Morneau/Hunter/Boone. And the pitching staff is Santana clones, Liriano, a strong pen and some innings eaters (Joe Mays and Kyle Lohse). My division spans all the way back to schwarze's 1970 with two 80s teams (1987 and 1988) in the middle, so it should be interesting how it plays out. At least we all avoid the Walter Johnson years.

For the first time, I'm looking at the era of a team and what league/division they're likely to end up in. I'm purposefully putting off the White Sox to make sure I'm out of the NL and don't have to face the deadball era juggernauts. The A's, similarly, have their best teams around 1910 (1908-12) and 1930 (1927-31). Luckily, I got far enough away to avoid them--9 teams were picked from 1931 and earlier but none others from before 1970 meaning 3 of the early 70s teams got pushed to the NL. 1987 OAK ended up with two surrounding teams (1985 and 89) as well as 1976, but is more balanced than all 3 with better pitching than 1989 and better hitting than 1985 and 1976. The bash brothers are both cloned as is adopted bash brother Reggie Jackson. A pair of Tony Phillips plus a Ron Cey and Walt Weiss man the infield with Tettleton at catcher. Canseco is on all 3 of the 85/87/89 teams but McGwire is only on the latter two and Jackson is only on 87 (to be fair, 89 gets Rickey). The pitching staff gets Rijo, Eckersley, Ontiveros, Lamp, and Howell. This feels like the sweet spot between 1985 (Sutton but no McGwire or Rickey) and 1989 (Rickey but no Rijo or Reggie). Hopefully that plays out in our division.

Picks 11 and 12:
NYY2021
SFG1998

I was the 22nd pick among Yankees teams. As I went to look at them, I was excited because 1933 showed up very highly, but that was because I was counting Ruth separately as a hitter and pitcher, and I guess you can't have 4 Ruths. I still considered them but ended up wanting to avoid the Ruth/Gehrig years (schwarze took 1933 right after me). 2021 NYY ended up in a division with 2016, 2006 and 2005. Those earlier two teams will be tough to beat with a ton of big-name firepower on both sides of the ball. Still, 2021 is no slouch and our pitching should be able to compete with Kluber and Cole leading the rotation and Chapman x2, Green x2, and Britton x2 in the pen. The offense seems good with two Judges, two Rizzos, two LeMaheius, Giancarlo Stanton and two Gary Sanchezes behind the plate. The weakest spot is SS where Gleyber Torres can't hold a candle to Jeter/A-Rod, of course. The other issue is this is a HR-hitting team but with a HR-prone staff (Cole in particular). I played it down the middle and went with Seals Stadium which is +0 to LF and -1 to RF for home runs (Rizzo is my only lefty). We'll see. Feel okay about the chances here given it was one of the last picks for the Yanks.

Again the 3rd-to-last pick but I have 1998 as the 2nd-best Giants season--what gives? Well, 2002 is #1 and I'm likely in their division (and I did end up there). Obviously both have Bonds as well as Kent and Aurilia in the infield. 1998 has Ellis Burks, while 2002 has Kenny Lofton. On the pitching side, 98 has Hershiser vs Schmidty for 2002. 2002 does have Nathan in the bullpen to join Robb Nen (who is available for both years). barracuda3 posted in the league chat that he had 1998 close to his pick of 2002, I agree. I ended up rostering 2004 JT Snow to platoon at 1B with my Jeff Kent clone. Darry Hamilton and Bill Mueller join as well but this is mostly a Bonds/Kent/Burks/Aurilia offense. Hershiser anchors the pitching staff and I went mostly without a true 3rd starter (Russ Ortiz will spot start) meaning Danny Darwin clones of 163 and 122 IP are my next-longest pitchers. The rest of the staff is relievers (Nen x2, Poole x2, Steve Reed x2, Jose Mesa). Optimistic about this group, although may not beat out 2002 for the division title.

Picks 13 and 14:
BOS1942
BAL1966

Now it's getting tough to find any good options and so mostly looking for a division/league I can advance out of or just a fun team. Boston has all the Pedro years in the late 90s/early 00s plus the Ruth deadball years. I decided to go in the middle of those to the Ted Williams era, although the years right in front of my 1942 selection are all likely as good or better, especially 1941. Unfortunately, I'm in the division with 1941. The offenses for 1941 and 42 are almost identical, but 1941 has Lefty Grove and Nels Potter and 1942 doesn't really get to counter with anything (Bill Butland anyone?). But while this team may not advance, we still have two Teddy Ballgames, two Foxxes (four if you count Pete Fox!), two Cronins, two Doerrs, and two Dimaggios (Dom, alas, not Joe). I stuck them in Fenway and this should be fun.

For Baltimore, I had looked at some of the Ripken years, but the teams just didn't fit great and once schwarze took 1995 and jfranco77 took 1998, I didn't really want to fish in that pond. Instead, I went for a weaker era with 1966 and I actually ended up as the last team in the NL with the weaker St. Louis Browns teams. We'll see if those deadball pitchers hold my offense down but it's not like they have the best of pitching. By ERC#, I have 1966 as by far the best in the NL. I have just two starters--one each of Jim Palmer and Dave McNally--but then 5 pairs of clones in the bullpen--Stu Miller, Eddie Fisher, Dick Hall, Eddie Watt, and Moe Drabowsky. All have tons of innings for relievers with 5 of them over 100 innings and all of them over 65. The offense has tons of pop with two Frank Robinsons, a Brooks, two Boog Powells, two Davey Johnsons, and Mike Epstein. Catcher is weak and Luis Aparicio is all-glove no-hit at SS but the top 7 in the order should mash. For a late pick feel good about this one, though ending up with the deadballers gives some uncertainty.

Picks 15 and 16:
CLE1950
CHW2022

I had the last pick in the Cleveland draft and there wasn't much left. I got to pick my league and division, though, and went to the NL with 1950, avoiding the dominant 90s Indians hitters. My division is the year before me (1949) plus two years just outside of the dead ball era (1921 and 22). We're probably the worst of the bunch thanks to the poor pitching--Bob Feller and Bob Lemon bring 4 seasons for 300+ IP and I cloned Early Wynn and Mike Garcia as well but there's not much quality to go with the volume. Our roster should be almost identical to 1949 but they will have Minnie Minoso and/or Ken Keltner. Boudreau at SS/C is always awesome. Two Larry Dobys in the outfield and two Al Rosens and two Mickey Vernons to handle 1B/3B/DH. Bobby Avila and Joe Grodon will fight it out for 2B at-bats. The weak spot is our last OF spot, with Dale Mitchell and Thurman Tucker the best candidates. Not much hope of advancement here unless we luck out and win the division.

I absolutely wanted to avoid the NL and specifically the teams from the 1910s in White Sox history. This was the last pick but I ended up in the weaker league and probably the weakest division. This is not the easiest build, but the pitching staff pieces together into a decent enough group with Cueto and Keuchel providing bulk and a slew of modern relievers headed by Liam Hendriks clones in the bullpen. The offense is a little weird--I ended up rostering 3 catchers with two Grandals who will fill in at DH/1B some. Jose Abreu is the best hitter with AJ Pollock and Luis Robert providing nice OF seasons. The infield is the weak spot--Elvis Andrus, Yoan Moncada, and Josh Harrison are not great starters and I have SS Tim Anderson backing up all 3 positions meaning playing out of position some at 2B and 3B. My valuations say my team should compete for a division title but this doesn't feel like a good team. Maybe all the White Sox teams just suck.

Picks 17 and 18:
ATL1966
MIN1928

When schwarze opened it up to second teams, I didn't have any in mind but figured I'd take a look. One team in particular caught my eye and that was 1966 ATL. They were on the fringe of the AL/NL and I already had 2001 in the AL but I made the provisional pick. It's one of the weaker eras for the Braves, avoiding the 90s/00s dynasty as well as the random Ruth year and a couple deadball teams that twist well. The offense is really really good, which was the draw. Two Hank Aarons, two Eddie Mathews, two Joe Torres...that's a good start. Denis Menke isn't a great fielder but he has two good seasons and one is better at 2B and the other is better at SS and he can hit. I even cloned Rico Carty who has a couple short PA seasons with good pop. I really like how the offense came together. And the pitching isn't too bad--two Phil Niekros and a Pat Jarvis give 750 innings in the rotation. Jarvis also has a nice relief season joining a couple Ron Reeds and Ted Abernathys in the pen. For a bonus pick, this one has a chance.

My other bonus pick is purely for fun. 1928 Senators have all the hitting of the other 20s teams but no Walter Johnson. While I almost lucked out and completely avoided the Big Unit in my division, I ended up with 1927 johning me which is the best team, by far, for this franchise. Garland Braxton can only do so much so I won't even mention the rest of the pitching staff. But the offense is going to be so much fun. My first 6 hitters are two Sislers, two Goslins, and two Cronins. One of the Sams (West or Rice) will fill in an outfield spot. I may even play some guys out of position at 2B/3B just to get all the best bats in the lineup, including a good Joe Judge year. Absolutely zero chance to advance, but I get to manage a team with guys named Muddy, Goose, and Ossie Bluege. That's a win.
10/28/2024 2:32 PM
Great writeup, thanks for sharing.

As I start researching teams for round 2, I realize that once I made a selection in the early rounds of the team selection process, I stopped researching that franchise. For example, after I took the 1916 NY Giants in round 2, I never really looked at any of the Bonds-era or Mays-era Giants. A lot of this research is brand new, and I am enjoying it. (I can take my time on each franchise, since we have nearly 2 months before round 2 begins).
10/28/2024 3:26 PM
I wasn't planning on playing anywhere near all the teams, but I do love a good twist league, especially one with a unique, uhhh, twist. :) I was mostly just focused on teams that were interesting for some reason.

2021 Dodgers

Interesting players: Pujols, Bauer, Scherzer

This is an obvious one - the pairing of Mookie and Albert is too tough to resist. Especially since Albert can play 3B too - though it was a tough call if it was worth downgrading his bat to get his 01 season at 3B versus using him at DH. Trea Turner has a good 2B season and Corey Seager can play SS. I've also got Trea's 20 season holding down DH, figuring I can use all the speed and AVG against all the Kershaws and Koufaxes. The only real risk on this team is Cody Bellinger and whether he can come close to replicating his MVP season, at least against righties, because this is a very righty heavy team on offense.

The rotation starts with 2 Kershaws (15 and 13) and Bauer, and then Scherzer '17 rounds things out. As all the modern Dodgers owners found out, there are just too many good pitchers to fit them all onto the roster, but I made room for the twin Gonsolins, 2 Kenleys, Treinen's monster season, and 1 each of Victor Gonzalez and Evan Phillips. I've also got Scherzer '17 as a long reliever, and he'll probably get some spot starts along the way.

2006 Yankees


Interesting player: Randy Johnson

So many Yankees teams, but once I decided on playing this league and couldn't find a Ruth/Gehrig team to my liking, I decided to stay out of that league. This team will probably have issues with the amazing '05 team, but I'm hoping they can hold their own. I've got Sheffield and his .464 OBP# hitting leadoff, then 2 Giambis, 2 A-Rods, Bernie 98, Bobby Abreu, Cano and Posada - it looks like a crazy good lineup on paper. I've got 99 Bernie on the bench, though he may play vs LH over Abreu or take over for Sheff if that experiment doesn't work out. Jeter is here, just on the bench as a PH/PR, along with Melky Cabrera who may get some time in pitchers' parks if I can keep up with the matchups and remember to check in advance.

Pitching is built around 2 Randy Johnsons (01 and 95) - and yes I know 01 always underperforms - and two Mussina's. Can Mussina really hang in this league? Probably not but hopefully my depth and defense makes up some of the difference. I've got 2 Riveras and 2 Dotels in the bullpen, and the rest is surprisingly shaky. Should be lots of 7-6 games here.

1911 Pirates

Interesting player: Claude Hendrix

Mostly a normal Pirates deadball twist team here. Honus 01 is rated D/A+ at 2B, of course he's also at SS, Tommy Leach is C/A at 3B and Dots Miller is somehow B+/A+ at 1B, so in addition to really good pitching they also have a strong defense. The OF/DH mix has 2 generations mixed together in Fred Clarke and Max Carey, plus Chief Wilson who should hit at least 1/3 of his real life triples here. Not a very good offense, but I hope it's enough.

Pitching should be good even compared to other deadball Bucs teams, with Hendrix 14 and Adams 19 leading the rotation along with Camnitz '09. The bullpen has Adams' 139ip and Elmer Steele's 125ip doing the heavy lifting, and a bunch of other guys eating innings. I've got Phillippe '05 as a long reliever who can also jump into the rotation if needed.

2019 Guardians

Interesting players: Hanley Ramirez, Carlos Gonzalez, Yasiel Puig

The modern Guardians can usually pitch, but hitting is a lot shakier. This is a very mix and match team with Jose Ramirez doing both 2B and 3B, Lindor '24 at SS and then Lindor '16 playing out of position in CF. CarGo '10 mans LF, and CarGo '13 platoons with Puig '13 in RF. Then Hanley '13 is platooning at DH with Puig '14, and Hanley '09 is playing out of position at 1B. What else can you do when you have too many shortstops and no corner bats? :) Carlos Santana plays catcher and Leonys Martin is on the bench so at least we have one OF with good defensive ratings. With 5 switch hitters and a L/R platoon, this is a lineup Terry Francona would love.

Pitching is a combination of all the recent Guardians' peak years. Bieber '20, Bauer '20 and Kluber '17 is a great big three. Plesac '20 and his 149 IP / 1.70 ERC# is a great #4 and either Bauer '18 or Kluber '18 will make some starts since the top 4 is a little short on innings. Brad Hand is closing and setup B, and Clevinger is setting up along with a pair of Clippard seasons. I hope this is a strong pitching staff and a decent enough offense to make things work.

1998 Orioles

Interesting players: Eric Davis, Doug Drabek, Juan Guzman, Jimmy Key

Man, I am not 100% sure what I saw in this team. On paper, they're great - Eric Davis with 2 great years, Brady Anderson, a pair of Palmieros at 1B/DH, Robby Alomar and Ripken up the middle and Hoiles behind the plate. Even with a platoon of Ripken '99 and BJ Surhoff (?) at 3B, the lineup has almost 350 home runs and pretty good defense. They can even run a lot, for when they see some non-Hoiles teams. But they are also strong candidates to get normalized to death.

The rotation will probably be a rolling audition all season. Guzman (181ip/2.33erc#) and Key (261ip/2.33erc#) are the ostensible aces, and then I've got a pair of Mussinas (95 with 250ip/2.37 and 01 with 229ip/2.46) and a pair of Drabeks (94 with 232ip/2.41 and 90 with 232ip/2.47) who will take up the rest of the starts once I figure out which of them is doing well. At least there's some good arms in the bullpen with a pair of Benitezes, a pair of Arthur Rhodes, and Norm Charlton closing things out. If all the other teams I'm facing are similarly blah, then maybe this team can be solid.
10/29/2024 9:39 AM
Posted by schwarze on 12/2/2024 10:48:00 AM (view original):
Part 1: Prep work.

To prepare for this tournament, I built at least one team for each of the 16 franchises. For some franchises, I built two teams. I certainly can't claim that I found the best year for each franchise, but at least it would provide me something to compare to as I started to build other rosters.

Knowing that I am going to enter a team in each league changes how I think about my selection process. I want to try and get as many teams possible to advance to the next round. For the early picks, I am hoping to find a team that can win 95+ games and have a shot at an early pick in the next round. For the later rounds, I am more focused on division alignment and finding a team that could maybe win 84-85 games and steal a weak division.

I am typing this from memory, but here are 20 original rosters that I built (in no particular order). I think there are a couple of others that I am not remembering. Not surprisingly, many of these teams got taken in round 1 (i.e., the first 24 hours of the draft). Including the two teams I took, that's 11 teams taken in round 1. A total of 74 teams were selected before my first 24 hour-wait time elapsed.

1916 Giants - taken 5th by me in round 2
2005 Yankees - taken pick 4 by firesalt in round 1
2008 Dodgers - taken pick 1 by calhoop in round 1
2006 Dodgers - taken pick 6 by Jtpsops in round 1
1927 Athletics - taken pick 1 by pedrocerrano in round 1
1933 Cardinals - taken pick 8 by barracuda3 in round 2 (I meant to take them in round 2, but typed in the wrong year)
1910 Indians - taken pick 1 by calhoop in round 1
1901 Pirates - taken pick 14 by me in round 4
1915 Red Sox - taken pick 1 by me in round 1
2002 Red Sox - taken pick 5 by ff09 in round 1
1907 Cubs - taken pick 6 by calhoop in round 2
1916 White Sox - taken pick 1 by pedrocerrano in round 1
1917 Braves - taken pick 1 by me in round 1
1996 Braves - taken pick 3 by barracuda3 in round 2
2011 Tigers - taken pick 6 by me in round 2
1916 Phillies - taken pick 2 by emanes10 in round 1
1909 Browns - taken pick 17 by thejuice6 in round 6 (Hmmm, maybe I overvalued this team?)
1995 Orioles - taken pick 4 by me in round 3
1977 Reds - taken pick 1 by redcped in round 1
1927 Senators -taken pick 1 by ronthegenius in round 1
Just doing a mid-season update. Here are the current records of these 20 teams, thru 106 games... (my teams highlighted in blue)
.
1916 Giants, 64-42, current #2 seed in N.L., but an unlucky 11-17 in 1-run games
2005 Yankees, 64-42, current #1 seed in A.L.
2008 Dodgers, 59-47, second in AL Central behind 2006 Dodgers
2006 Dodgers, 64-42, current #1 seed in A.L.
1927 Athletics,66-40, current #1 seed in N.L.
1933 Cardinals,60-46, current #2 seed in N.L.
1910 Indians, 62-44, current #2 seed in N.L.
1901 Pirates, 63-43, current #2 seed in N.L.
1915 Red Sox, 65-41, current #2 seed in N.L.
2002 Red Sox, 53-53, but an unlucky 7-17 in 1-run games
1907 Cubs, 61-45, but in 4th place in a ridiculously tough N.L. East
1916 White Sox, 65-41, current #1 seed in N.L. (tied with 1919)
1917 Braves, 70-36, current #1 seed in N.L.
1996 Braves, 58-47, currently leading A.L. East
2011 Tigers, 58-48, two games out of 1st in A.L. West, one game ahead in wildcard race
1916 Phillies, 59-47, four games out of 1st in N.L. East, four games ahead in wildcard race
1909 Browns, 42-64, clearly, I missed badly on this team
1995 Orioles, 63-43, current #2 seed in A.L.
1977 Reds, 56-50, 2nd place in A.L. East, but 4 games out of wildcard race
1927 Senators, 64-42, current #2 seed in N.L.
12/2/2024 11:36 AM (edited)
Posted by schwarze on 10/20/2024 6:18:00 PM (view original):
Part 2 - Round 1

While I was writing up the ad for this tournament in the classifieds, I was watching Sunday Night Football, and trying to figure out which two teams I should select first. I knew a bunch of the teams on my list would get taken before I got to pick again. Maybe I should have gone with the best teams from a weak franchise. Ironically, I ended up taking teams from franchises that I actually built *two* teams for.

Team #1
1917 Boston Braves
One of the easiest ways of finding an obscure team that is perfect for this theme is to use baseball-reference to view a list of a franchises pitchers. When I see Ed Walsh pitched for the 1917 Braves, I then check out the full roster. With Art Nehf and Ed Reulbach joining Ed Walsh, this will be the best pitching staff in the NL. The offense doesn't have any studs (no hitter over $7.5M), but the infield (Johnny Evers, Red Smith, Sherry Magee) is decent, so at least the offense is balanced. I anticipate a bunch of Mathews and/or Aaron teams in the NL Central and NL West, so my pitching should mute their HRs. Also, I avoid all the Maddux teams in the AL. This team could be a 95-win team.

Team #2
1915 Boston Red Sox
In retrospect, maybe I should have taken the 1910 Cleveland Naps with my other first round pick. calhoop wisely grabbed this team very quickly. The Red Sox franchise has a lot of decent teams to choose from. I guess the two main reasons I took this team - I avoid all the Pedro Martinez teams, and there won't be that much pitching in the N.L. side of this league. Oh, and I get to roster Babe Ruth x 2 and Tris Speaker x 2. This is a rare team with great pitching (D.Leonard, J.Wood, C.Mays, R.Foster, R.Collins, E.Shore) and great hitting (except at SS). I do think this team can win 95+ games. I bet calhoop's 1910 Indians team wins 100+.

One could argue for choosing some of the other really strong teams here, such as the 1910 Naps or the 1927 Senators, but I really can't complain with the results of these two early selections.

Team #1
Thru 106 games, the 1917 Braves' 70-36 record is tied for third best in entire tournament. The N.L. is very weak... the #2 seed ('58 Braves) only has 59 wins... the #3 seed ('66 Braves) is only 53-53. This team is slightly below average in runs scored (14th), but their pitching is dominating with an ERA (3.18) over half a run better than the second best team (2001 Braves, 3.73). Here are the N.L.'s leading ERAs for qualified pitchers...
1st - '10 Walsh 2.46
2nd - '08 Walsh 2.82
3rd - '05 Reulbach 3.36
4th - '43 M.Cooper 3.99
5th - '53 Spahn 4.13.
Needless to say, both Ed Walshes are ranked 1-2 in the Cy Young race.

The World Series (if I am lucky enough to get there) will be a different matter as my teams are playing below .500 vs. the Maddux teams.


Team #2
After a slow start where my two Babe Ruths were my team's two worst hitters for like the first 8-10 games, my 1915 Red Sox have not disappointed. Their 65-41 record is good for the #2 seed in the N.L. (behind calhoop's dominating 1908 Red Sox, 72-34). My '23 Ruth (.362/.492/.638) is 1st in MVP, while '23 Speaker (.373/.438/.565) is 5th. My '21 Ruth (.308/.424/.581) doesn't crack the top 5. The other three top 5 MVP candidates are 3dayrotation's '23 Ruth and '20 Ruth and footballmm11's '41 Ted Williams. Tough competition.

Anyway, the offense isn't why this team is winning, although they are ranked 6th overall. The pitching is ranked 1st, led by '12 Joe Wood (17-9, 3.85, 3rd in Cy Young) and '18 Carl Mays (16-10, 4.17, 5th in Cy Young). '14 Dutch Leonard (6-7, 18/19 saves, 3.65) has been my team's main closer. The key has been the team's #1 ranked defense, specifically their range (73 + plays vs 13 - plays). Most of that is Ruth, Ruth, Speaker, Speaker (61 + plays, 0 - plays combined).

The path to the World Series must go through the 1908 Red Sox though, where I am only 4-5 so far.
Although the team is a bit lucky in 1-run games (13-8), their actual win% (.613) is still lower than their expected win% (.650)
12/2/2024 11:35 AM
Posted by schwarze on 10/20/2024 6:53:00 PM (view original):
Part 3 - Round 2 (The Typo)

The wait between round 1 and round 2 was very hard as team after team that I had on my list got taken. As soon as one of my hopeful teams would get taken, I would empty that team in the draft center and start building a new team. Sometimes, a new team I just built would then get taken. Anyway, as I was watching Monday Night Football waiting for my turn, I had my choices narrowed down to three teams, 1933 Cardinals, 1916 Giants & 2011 Tigers. Although the Cardinals franchise has a lot of quality seasons to choose from, I was for sure taking 1933 because it has a bunch of guys I really like including Frankie Frisch, Ripper Collins, Rogers Hornsby and Dazzy Vance. I went to sleep shortly after posting. I woke up and learned that I had typed in the wrong year for the Cardinals. I only realized it when I saw 1933 taken by barracuda3 and thought "Wait - that's my team". I had 1933 typed into the "Notes section" at the bottom of the Team Center (I type in the year and team for all my teams b/c I have 20 unused teams in the Draft Center and it helps me keep track). For some unknown reason, I typed in 1934 everywhere else. I felt sick to my stomach.

Team #3
1916 New York Giants
Although the Tigers franchise have fewer really strong teams, I went with this Giants team because of the combination of Christy Mathewson, Ferdie Schupp, Edd Roush and Benny Kauff. The team also has very strong defense, with A+ range at 2B (Roush), at SS (Herzog) and at CF (Kauff). Besides Mathewson and Schupp, the pitching staff also has Jeff Tesreau, Slim Sallee and Fred Anderson. Another team with great pitching and very strong hitting. I don't regret taking this team over the 2011 Tigers (assuming I got 1933 Cardinals and the 2011 Tigers went before my next turn). I would be disappointed if this team didn't win at least 90 games.

Team #4
2011 Detroit Tigers
Of course, since I didn't get the 1933 Cardinals, it was a no-brainer to select my other choice. Five Tigers teams were already taken, including 2013 and 2014. I like the 2011 roster better. Yes - they are weak at 2B, but I plan on playing my second Carlos Guillen there. The offense is amazing with Miguel Cabrera at 1B/3B, Guillen at 2B/SS, Victor Martinez at C/DH (also Alex Avila at C), Magglio Ordonez at LF/RF with Austin Jackson playing CF. But what makes this team a good selection is the very strong pitching staff with Verlander and Scherzer representing 80% of my starting rotation. And I have three RPs with sub 0.85 whips. Ironically, barracuda3 said that he strong considered 2011 Tigers at his turn (to go along with the 1933 Cardinals pick). This team will likely be in the AL West along with 2013 and 2014 so they will beat each other up. The wildcard team should come from this division. Another 90-win team. Of course, I would expect my early picks to do well.
Team #3
My 1916 Giants (64-42) have been very good, but their record actually should be better. They are 11-17 in 1-run games and their exp win% (.652) is significantly higher than their actual win% (.604). They are ranked 5th in runs scored and 2nd in ERA. Also ranked first in defensive range (104+ plays vs 8- plays). All of this despite the fact that my 1908 Christy Mathewson is the worst in the league. Here are the '08 Mathewson's ERAs: 3.31, 3.42, 4.35 and 4.60. I've been using '09 Mathewson (13-6, 7/11 in saves, 3.31) as a long-reliever / closer. '16 Ferdie Schupp (6-5, 12/15 in saves, 2.93) is my other main reliever.

The offense is led by '14 Benny Kauff (.369/.417/.549, 2nd in MVP race). '12 Heinie Zimmerman (.337/.374/.496) leads the team with 92 RBIs. '23 Edd Roush has been great as well (.369/.412/.547) while his twin brother '16 Edd Roush has somehow already made 37 + plays at 2B, but that's been offset by the 37 errors.

Currently, my Giants are in a tie for the N.L. East division lead with glowguy's 1906 team. His team only has a .526 exp win% but is 17-9 in 1-run games. pedrocerrano's 1920 Giants is the #1 seed (66-40) and their .674 exp win% is top 10 in the entire tournament. This will be a tough league to go far in the playoffs.


Team #4
It is a bit disheartening seeing that beautiful 1933 Cardinals team (60-46, 1st in scoring) crushing it, although I ended up with a decent '62 Cardinals team (58-48). Anyway, my 2011 Tigers team has been frustrating. Their 58-48 record is good enough for a wild card, but they've been very unlucky (12-17 in 1-run games). As I anticipated, their great bullpen is getting smashed like all modern bullpens do for me... Ignoring the tandem starting pitchers, this team's bullpen is 17-for-31 in saves. Somehow, we're still 7th overall in ERA.

What I did not anticipate was this offense (playing it's home games at Hilltop) being below the league average in scoring. A team with two Miguel Cabreras, two Victor Martinez, two Magglio Ordonezes and two Carlos Guillens starting. How is this possible? After a closer look at the numbers, it appears that luck has not been on our side in terms of sequencing. We are better than league average in AVG, better than league average in OBP and better than league average in SLG. We are ranked 9th in OPS but only 13th in scoring. I must leave a ton of guys on base.

All of this (1-run games & sequencing) would indicate that there could be some positive regression coming. Of course, my sub 0.85 whip RPs will probably blow the leads anyway. Sadly, I am only 8-13 in my division vs similar rosters (2012, 2013, 2014) and I am only one game up in the wildcard (2014). I could see this team missing the playoffs or winning the division (2 games behind 2013).
12/2/2024 12:17 PM (edited)
Posted by schwarze on 10/22/2024 11:47:00 AM (view original):
Round 3

The only teams left from my original batch are the 1901 Pirates, 1909 Browns and 1995 Orioles. I had since built a new batch of teams so every team in my Draft Center is occupied with potential teams that I may end up playing. For some franchises, I had only built one team, and am now realizing that maybe I should have considered scarcity for my early picks. So this round, I made an effort to go with franchises that didn't have a lot of good options.

Team #5
1970 Minnesota Twins
I had only built the 1927 Senators team, so as I started digging into the Twins franchise, I quickly realized that I needed to grab a decent team now or get stuck with garbage at the end. I wanted to stay out of the NL to avoid all the good Walter Johnson teams. Doing a search of the Twins historical pitching, I discovered Luis Tiant pitched one season (1970) with this franchise. What an interesting career Tiant had. After going 21-9, 1.60 ERA for the Indians in 1968, he went 9-20, 3.71 with a league high 37 HRs & 129 walks allowed in 1969. What happened in one year? He then played the one season with the Twins (7-3, 3.40), struggled the following year in Boston (1-7 in 10 starts), but starting in 1972, he had eight straight pretty strong years, seven with the Red Sox (134-74 record). Anyway, getting clones of Tiant, Blyleven, Kaat, plus decent RP seasons of Tom Hall, Ron Perranoski and Stan Williams, this pitching staff should be one of the best in the A.L. I like the pitching, but I really love the offense... Rod Carew was my favorite player when I was a kid. Tony Oliva had a short career but was really good in those few seasons. Thankfully, this tournament allows a DH, so I can start Killebrew there (and maybe some at 3B), although the multi-faceted Cesar Tover may start there with his A+ range. We'll ignore mentioning catcher and shortstop. Prediction 88 wins.

Team #6
2015 Baltimore Orioles
So why did I select this team when I still had the 1909 Browns also available? Well, after looking at the roster again, I know why I selected this team, this early. This is Kevin Brown's only season with the Orioles, so pairing him with Mussina gives me a pitching advantage over similar era Orioles teams. The bullpen is deep with Doug Jones, Arthur Rhodes, Joe Borowski, Jesse Orosco plus short-inning starters Sid Fernandez and Ben McDonald. But more importantly, the offense has no weaknesses. Chris Hoiles, Rafael Palmeiro, Bobby Bonilla, Cal Ripken Jr., Brady Anderson, Andy Van Slyke... I'm not even sure how I can start all of these guys. The weakest player is Bret Barbarie at 2B (.310/.356/.406 C/A-) but his clone is a great utility guy (.353/.435/.515). I expect this team to win 90 games.
Team #5
My 1970 Twins are sitting at 68-40, which is the #1 seed in the A.L. As expected, the offense is very good, ranking 3rd in the league in scoring. '77 Carew (.355/.406/.459) is the leader in the MVP race. Both Tony Olivas are over .300 and '61 Killebrew is 3rd in the league with 24 HRs. I had to bench '69 Killebrew due to his poor hitting (.216/.349/.351).

The pitching is led by Cy Young favorite, Luis Tiant (17-4, 2.98). Overall, the team's pitching is ranked only 15th in the league, but that's a bit misleading. My home park is Hilltop. When looking at just away stats, we have the 2nd best ERA in the A.L. (the non-Walter Johnson side of the league). Tom Hall (3-1, 14/18 saves, 3.05) has been solid. The rest of the bullpen... no so much.

The second best team in the A.L. is 3dayrotation's 2006 team (58-50). If I can get through the A.L., it will be a tough go vs the N.L. My team is below .500 vs N.L. teams) and there are at least five N.L. teams with 60+ wins.


Team #6
My 1995 Orioles team (65-43) has been lucky this year. They are ranked only 12th in scoring and 6th in ERA. But they are 16-7 in 1-run games and their expected win% (.551) is 51 points lower than their actual win% (.602). '96 Kevin Brown (14-7. 2.62) is the star of the team. He is ranked 2nd in the Cy Young race. The other three SPs have not been great. My two Mike Mussinas have combined to allow 64 HRs in 314 IPs (1.83 hr/9). Both Mussinas and '98 K.Brown all have ERAs over 5.00. The bullpen has blown 12 saves (in 38 chances) but most of the relievers have ERAs under 4.00, so I can't really complain too much about them.

How bad is the offense in the A.L.? My mediocre '96 Brady Anderson (.270/.352/.532) is ranked 3rd in MVP race. My best hitter has been '91 Cal Ripken Jr. (.319/.365/.531). I did expect a bit more from my two Andy Van Slykes (.254 & .251) and two Bobby Bonillas (.258 & .270). Somehow, my '93 Chris Hoiles (.229/.341/.382) is by far and away the worst Hoiles (the other two are at .316/.388/.546 and 305/.398/.516). I guess there is some room for improvement with my offense.

The #1 seed in the A.L. has a similar roster, chewy3344's 1997 Orioles (69-39). I don't see how they are better than my '95 Orioles team. I have Kevin Brown x 2. They have Jimmy Key x 2. Advantage 1995. They are using Alomar at 2B/3B with Baines/E.Davis at OF and Surhoff at DH. I have Bonilla at 3B/DH with VanSlyke of OFx2 and Barberie at 2B. We both have Ripken, Palmeiro, B.Anderson and Hoiles. I've already mentioned how poorly Van Slyke, Bonilla and Hoiles are playing for me. I do expect to catch them.
12/2/2024 10:09 PM
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