Use this thread to post your draft strategies and other draft related thoughts.

I guess I will start.

Researching for round 2 was easier than round 1, because we have win-loss data for round 1 as a starting point. I look at the teams that had success in round 1 and checked the adjacent years to see if the rosters were similar. Using this as a guide, I built between 5 and 10 rosters for each franchise. Note that I also had some rosters built for round 1 that didn't get used, so I have those as well.

Of course, the goal is to build a roster capable of making the playoffs and advancing to round 3, but with the very early selections, the goal is to find a team capable of winning 95-100 games which would secure an early pick in the next round. As a result, I focused on the franchises that didn't have a lot of seasons that I felt particularly good about. I wasn't going to use an early pick on the Yankees or Dodgers because I felt there are a lot of good choices.

After learning that I had picks 1 and 3, I came up with three teams I really liked. Since two of these teams were from the same franchise, it was an easy choice for the #1 pick.

Pick #1
1912 Chicago Cubs
In round 1, every year between 1906 and 1913 was selected, except 1912. These seven teams averaged 93.2 wins in round 1. The roster has the usual cast of characters with M.Brown, Reulbach and Toney leading the pitching staff, and Chance, Evers, Sheckard, F.Schulte and C.Williams leading the offense. The catching is a bit weaker with no Johnny Kling, so I am using a Frank Chance season as a platoon catcher. It feels like this team would have won at least 90 games had it played in round 1. Since the 1906-1911 & 1913 seasons are not playing this round, 95-100 wins should be achievable. We predict 98-64.
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Pick #3
1911 Boston Braves
I mentioned that I had three teams that I liked. Besides the 1912 Cubs, I also really liked the 1993 Braves (the only version available with both Chipper and Maddux) and the 1911 Boston Braves. Had pedrocerrano not taken 1993, I'm not sure which year I would have taken. I'm glad he made the decision easy for me. Excluding the Maddux seasons, the Braves franchise have not had many winning seasons. Sure, there are some years with Spahn, Mathews and/or Aaron, and I expect a few of those teams to get selected. What's the best way to neutralize those teams (and the modern 2010+ teams)? Draft some deadball pitching. My 1917 team had Ed Walsh and he crushed it. This 1911 team has Cy Young, Lefty Tyler and Big Jeff Pfeffer. I just like saying Big Jeff Pfeffer. Yes, Cy Young is a downgrade from Ed Walsh, but this team's offense should be better than my 1917 team. Mike Donlin, Bill Sweeney, Fred Tenney & Harry Steinfeldt are the key cogs. Sadly, Jack "Chief" Meyers is not on the roster. Still can't believe I left him off my 1917 team. There are only 3 deadball teams. In fact, 1970 Braves in are in the NL East. I expect my low-HR pitchers to do quite well and I would be shocked if this team didn't approach 100 wins.

Top 16 Draft
Pick #13
1907 New York Giants
I considered other franchises but felt that the seasons I wanted (from those franchises) might last based on the round 1 results. I had a feeling that there would be a number of seasons with Willie Mays or Barry Bonds clones so I definitely wanted a deadball season here. It was between 1905 and 1907. The two rosters are similar with the main difference between Mike Donlin or Cy Seymour as the team's best hitter. I went with 1907 b/c Seymour is a better defensive outfielder. Of course, Mathewson provides 700 innings of awesome pitching. Joe McGinnity adds another 600 innings. Red Ames, Hooks Wiltse and Dummy Taylor will fill out the pen. Dan McGann, Sammy Strang, Roger Bresnahan, Art Devin and John McGraw (376 PA) all provide some nice on base percentages. Bill Dahlen is my weakest hitter but provides A+ range at SS. I am shocked 1905 didn't get selected (although 1904 did). There was only one Mays season (1961) and two Bonds seasons (2001, 2006) selected, so my read was off. Eight of the twelve teams are from 1904-1929. I will temper my excitement with this team and project 86 wins.

I advanced 4 of my 7 teams from R1, which wasn't so great and reflected some sketchy research. So of course I once again found myself without time to research thoroughly. Knowing I had a few days away with my kids ahead, I just had to hope the drafts either moved slowly or that I could land on teams I liked quickly enough not to gum up the works. For most of these, I only built 2 or 3 rosters based largely on seeing how adjacent seasons to successful R1 teams looked.

League 8, Pick 1: 2004 Twins
I had one spot in the Top 16, choosing 7th, so that was where the most pressure lay. I built about 10 teams across several leagues in hopes of landing on a couple that looked like they'd be a good bit better than other franchise options. Two of my top choices went in the first few picks (1912 Cubs and 1914 Pirates), and I didn't want to pick the 3rd team in the Braves league. I liked a couple Dodgers and Yankees options but also knew there were plenty of good choices among those teams.

I landed on these Twins mostly because it's the only Johan Santana-Joe Mauer season left and figures to match up pretty well with likely division opponents. The rotation falls off a lot with Lohse and Radke behind the two Santanas, but the bullpen is deep with two Joe Nathans and two Grant Balfours leading the way. With Mauer covering C and DH, I was able to fill out a pretty good defensive lineup with a lot of speed. No 30-homer players on the team, but we hit a lot of doubles.

Based on where I picked them, I have to predict a division title from this group. Hopefully I made at least one good choice.

League 1, Pick 9: 1922 Yankees
I might have erred in limiting my focus to Ruth-era teams, but half the league did the same so I probably wasn't too far off. I liked the 1927 and 1929 teams pretty well, too. With 1929, you get Gehrig and Dickey but lesser pitching. And with 1927, you just get Gehrig but at least Bob Shawkey. With 1922, you don't get Gehrig or Dickey, but you get two very helpful Carl Mays seasons, Frank Baker, Wally Schang, and a pretty decent Gehrig impersonator in the form of Lefty O'Doul (thanks to 6 IP for the Yanks that year). I am curious to see if anyone decides they have enough offense to use a Ruth pitching season, but I felt that I'd rather have his bat. That could be a mistake. We'll see.

League 7, Pick 10: 1974 Orioles
An awful lot of teams went with strong-hitting Browns seasons, but I didn't think I could live with the pitching. Instead I went with a season pretty close to my 1970 O's squad that got to the WS in R1. I had a really tough time deciding between 74 and 75, with the biggest difference being Dave McNally in the rotation in 74 and Ken Singleton joining the lineup in 75. I found out the day after picking that McNally had given up the most HR of any starter in R1 at 76 (maybe this only included a handful of the leagues, but it's still dang high). I might have gone with 75 if I'd realized that, but I was trying to do research quickly on Christmas and didn't ponder it too deeply.

The bullpen is deep, the defense is stalwart, the offense has a lot of punch. I think there's a lot to like here, but I'll definitely be kicking myself when I finish behind schwarze's 75 team and all because Singleton takes McNally deep repeatedly.

League 2, Pick 18: 2023 Dodgers
I had a 12th pick in another league that I hadn't researched, and I wound up swapping just to get a Dodgers team because this is supposed to be fun after all. In R1 I had been really excited to play the 2024 Dodgers with Ohtani, a pair of Mookies, a pair of Freddies, and a pair of Kershaws, plus Lamet in the rotation. We battled for 3rd place all season, and no one hit except Ohtani in a league full of Pedro, Maddux and Kershaw. Well, there's nothing like learning nothing from your mistakes so here I am again to face more Kershaws, some Greinkes, some Koufaxes, some Vances ... with a lineup that's not as good. But it's pretty darn close with J.D. Martinez nicely replacing Ohtani, I think, and I have to think the offenses will do a bit better overall despite the remaining good arms. Plus, the bullpen is absurdly good and I get a couple Tony Gonsolin seasons to add to the mix.

I gave some thought to the 64 Dodgers, with Koufax, Drysdale and Singer to anchor the pitching staff, plus Jim Brewer clones in the pen. You get a good bit of speed with Wills and Gilliam and some clout from Frank Howard. I was surprised no one took them, speaking to how deep the Dodgers options were. Heck, for all I know no one else wanted this 2023 team either and I'm just doubling down on a previous mistake.

Believe it or not, that McNally total wasn't even close to the most HR allowed in all of round 1. My 66 Marichal gave up 114...

Posted by contrarian23 on 12/29/2024 6:39:00 AM (view original):
Believe it or not, that McNally total wasn't even close to the most HR allowed in all of round 1. My 66 Marichal gave up 114...

I realized later that farleyfustle had shared that stat as the highest in any of the leagues he's in, which clearly didn't include that one. I didn't even look in my other leagues. 114 ... is wow, a whole lot.

Regular Draft

So you may have noticed that all three of my "Top 16" picks are deadball teams (1912 Cubs, 1911 Braves, 1905 Giants). This will be a trend for me in round 2. I was so annoyed at how the modern RPs with sub-0.90 whips sucked for my round 1 teams, that I made an effort to avoid selecting modern teams in round 2. Give me a mediocre deadball SP with a whip of 1.07 and erc# of 2.67 who can pitch 3 innings and give up 2 runs over a modern RP with a whip of 0.89 and an erc# of 1.87 who gives up 2 hits in 0.1 innings and is removed due to pitch count, and both base runners end up scoring when the next RP comes in and gives up 2 more hits. It turns out that 12 of my 16 teams are playing in the East division. 3 of 16 are playing in the Central and only 1 team is playing in the West and that season is 1962!

Anyway, I will post my remaining selections in order of their league's draft position. Here was my pick number chart.

schwarze League 1, Pick 2 --> 1905 Giants
schwarze League 1, Pick 14
schwarze League 2, Pick 8
schwarze League 2, Pick 19
schwarze League 3, Pick 11
schwarze League 3, Pick 22
schwarze League 4, Pick 7
schwarze League 4, Pick 21
schwarze League 5, Pick 1 --> 1912 Cubs
schwarze League 5, Pick 11
schwarze League 6, Pick 2 --> 1911 Braves
schwarze League 6, Pick 13
schwarze League 7, Pick 2
schwarze League 7, Pick 18
schwarze League 8, Pick 5
schwarze League 8, Pick 21

If drafting was perfectly efficient, the top 12 picks in each league should advance to round 3, so I should have 9 teams advance. Of course, 8 is the maximum.

League 7, Pick #2
1912 Philadelphia Phillies
I didn't see any Browns/Orioles team that was head and shoulders better than the others so I was going to select a Phillies season. The top pick was 2012 Phillies (calhoop) which was a very solid choice. This was one of the six Phillies rosters that I built. In round 1, I used the 1913 Phillies and they went a respectable 84-78, finishing third in the division behind 1916 (94 wins) and 1915 (90 wins). The other two round 1 deadball Phillies teams also finished over .500 (1917 w/86 wins and 1911 w/82 wins). All those deadball teams are not playing in round 2. In fact, the NL East division includes 1908, 1910 and 1966! There are nine post-1960 Phillies teams that will find it difficult to hit HRs against Pete Alexander, Earl Moore and Eppa Rixey. With basically the same roster as my 1913 team, I think this team can win 92 games and if things break right, maybe even approach 100 wins.

League 8, Pick #5
1921 Washington Senators
Here are the top four picks in league 8:
1 - 2004 Twins (redcped)
2 - 1912 Senators (calhoop)
3 - 1919 Reds (glowguy)
4 - 1930 Senators (pedrocerrano).

When my turn came up, I decided I could wait on the Reds franchise since there were a number of Reds seasons that I liked. Of the six rosters I built for the Senators/Twins franchise, 2004, 1921, 1929 and 1971 were my top choices. 1971 is similar to my 100-win 1970 team, with one key exception... 1971 is missing Luis Tiant. So it was between 1921 and 1929. The '29 offense was slightly better with Joe Cronin & Buddy Myer replacing Donnie Bush & Bucky Harris. 1929 has the sneaky dead pitcher Nick Altrock (who was born in 1876) and got one at bat (got a hit!) in October 6, 1929 at the age of 53. Garland Braxton is also on the '29 team. But I preferred getting two stud Walter Johnsons with 1921.

In round 1, I used the 1922 Senators (very similar roster). They went 80-82 in round 1 (won a very weak NL East) and that included a 16-30 record in 1-run games, plus they had to deal with those really strong 1925, 1926, 1927 teams that combined to win 298 games. Also, I incorrectly rostered 1918 Walter Johnson instead of 1913 Walter Johnson. I wanted the extra innings. '18 Johnson went 20-28, w/4.09 ERA in 427 innings. The very worst 1913 Johnson had a 3.52 ERA in 355 innings. Most '13 Johnsons had ERAs in the low 3's. So given the easier competition, the chance that my 1-run game luck won't be as bad and the fact that I upgraded my Johnson, this team should win close to 90 games.

League 4, Pick #7
1902 Pittsburgh Pirates
Here are the top six picks in league 7:
1 - 1914 Pirates (pedrocerrano)
2 - 1909 Pirates (ronthegenius)
3 - 1989 Pirates (footballmm11)
4 - 1911 Athletics (contrarian23)
5 - 1911 Athletics (Bill_James47)
6 - 1914 Athletics (njbigwig)

Just like in round 1, I was going to wait on the A's. I built seven Pirates rosters, but I did not include 1914 or 1909, which worries me a little (what did I miss)? I did build 1916 and 1908 though. My round 1 Pirates team (1901) finished with 89 wins and that included going 9-18 in their last 27 games. The 1903 Pirates won 90 games in round 1. The main roster difference is that 1902 doesn't have Rube Waddell, but it turns out that he was my worst pitcher anyway. I'll simply use Tannehill and Phillippe more often. '04 Jack Chesbro won the Cy Young in round 1, and I don't expect him to be worse than he was vs the tougher round 1 competition. Also, in round 1, my two Honus Wagners were below average (when compared to the other Wagners), despite playing home games in Palace of the Fans. That should regress to the positive. If 1901 won 89 games and 1903 won 90 games, it feels like my 1902 team is a no-brainer to win at least 90 games with essentially the same roster vs weaker competition.

League 2, Pick #8
1910 Boston Red Sox
Here are the top seven picks in league 8:
1 - 1959 Dodgers (3dayrotation)
2 - 2017 Dodgers (barracuda3)
3 - 1907 Americans (pedrocerrano)
4 - 1919 Red Sox (Jtpsops)
5 - 1971 Red Sox (kstober)
6 - 2018 Dodgers (footballmm11)
7 - 1916 Robins (glowguy)

Normally, I might jump at a team like 2015 Dodgers here, but as I mentioned earlier, I am avoiding modern teams. I realize that there aren't many usable Dodgers teams from the deadball era, but I have eleven Dodgers rosters built and don't have a strong preference for any of them (I'm hoping maybe to get 1962 with my later pick, since I had success with 1961 in round 1).

Anyway, the Red Sox seasons that I was considering here were 1910 or one of the Ruth-based Red Sox teams (1916-18). I had a lot of success with 1915 Red Sox in round 1, but that team had great pitching and more importantly, had both Babe Ruth and Tris Speaker. The 1916-18 Red Sox teams have Ruth but no other good hitters. Of course, you could argue that the 1910 Red Sox have Tris Speaker and no other good hitters and there is some truth to that. I really love the 1910 pitching though, with Ed Cicotte, Frank Smith and Joe Wood. Even lefties Ray Collins and Ed Karger may have some value vs any lefty-dominant teams. The Babe Ruths should crush some of the modern teams although I would expect a high intentional-walk rate (at least for the 2nd Ruth in the batting order). But my deadball pitching should keep Ruth from going off too much, where as my Speaker should do pretty well against the Ruth teams' deadball pitching. In retrospect, this may have been the wrong choice, and I'll surely finish no better than 2nd in the division (to pedrocerrano's 1907 team). We'll be on the conservative side and predict 85 wins.

League 5, Pick #11
1962 Chicago White Sox
Here are the White Sox seasons selected before my turn in league 5 (I already have my Cubs team):
1920 White Sox (pedrocerrano)
1912 White Sox (contrarian23)
1905 White Sox (kstober)
2021 White Sox (emanes10)
1995 White Sox (footballmm11)

Ugh. I hate this pick. I used 1963 White Sox in round 1 and that team won 90 games. I built rosters for 1962, 1965, 1966, 1968 and they all have the same thing in common. Great pitching, bad hitting. I strongly considered 1914 here (Ed Walsh, Ed Cicotte, Reb Russell) and I probably should have taken them. The reason I didn't take them is because I didn't want to be in the same division as 1920 and 1912. Also, 1914 doesn't have much hitting either. I wanted to trade down, but got no interest. It was about 3 pm on Christmas day and I didn't want to delay the draft any longer, so I *settled* on 1962 because they had the best hitting of the 1960's teams. They also have the worst pitching (no Wilhelm, no Locker, no McMahon, no Cisco). Hell, they don't even have the great defense some of those other teams have (no Hansen A+ at SS, no Ward A+ at 3B). Sigh..

The best hitters on this team are Joe Cunningham, Floyd Robinson, Nellie Fox and Charlie Maxwell. Since they are all lefties, we will be playing in Robison Field. Lefties Gary Peters, Juan Pizarro and Herb Score are happy about that. The only saving grace is that we ended up in the weaker AL West (along with 1974, 1995 and 2021). This team will be lucky to win 81 games and is more likely to win 75. I should have taken 1914.

League 3, Pick #11
1907 Cleveland Naps
Here are the teams selected before my turn in league 3:
1 - 2004 Cardinals (footballmm11)
2 - 1919 Indians (crazyamos)
3 - 1942 Cardinals (toysboys)
4 - 1913 Naps (pedrocerrano)
5 - 2006 Cardinals (chewy3344)
6 - 1934 Cardinals (calhoop)
7 - 1950 Cardinals (gworear)
8 - 1998 Cleveland Indians (footballmm11)
9 - 1921 Cardinals (kstober)
10 - 1904 Naps (contrarian23)

I never considered taking a Cardinals team here. I had 1913, 1904 or 1907 as the Indians teams I was hoping to get, and since two of those teams are off the board and I didn't want to get stuck with a 1940's or 1950's Indians team, this pick was a no-brainer. I posted this pick just 11 minutes after 1904 was posted - no second guessing here. Lajoie, Flick, Bradley lead the offense while Addie Joss, Bill Bernhard and Earl Moore will do most of the pitching. Tough division with 1904, 1906 and 1908, but at least we avoid pedrocerrano's 1913 team. Poor emanes10 - his 1948 team is stuck in the Central with 1913, 1914 & 1919. Prediction: 88 wins.

League 6, Pick #13
1909 Detroit Tigers
Here are the Tigers seasons selected before my turn in league 6 (I already have my Braves team):
1946 Tigers (Jtpsops)
1961 Tigers (SteveIzzy)
2007 Tigers (barracuda3)
1988 Tigers (Bill_James47)
2015 Tigers (kstober)
1919 Tigers (chewy3344)

I only built five Tigers rosters although one roster has two other adjacent years that are similar so I really have seven years to choose from. Two of these seasons were selected before my turn (1919 and 2007). My choice was pretty locked in all along. 1909, 1910 and 1911 (all with similar rosters) are the only available deadball teams that I built so I decided on 1909. I've used the 1909 Tigers in other juice tournaments and they've done quite well for me. I have the three Eds pitching (Summers, Willett, Killian) along with Bill Donovan and George Mullin. None are great deadball pitchers, but they won't allow HRs. The offense has Ty Cobb, Sam Crawford, Jim Delahanty and Donnie Donie Bush (I just realized I've been spelling his name wrong). I know, I know... it's not that great of an offense. The defense is strong though and we'll be facing some pretty bad pitching from the 1920's and 1930's Tigers teams. I think we have a shot in the division though. Ironically, nobody took 1910 or 1911 so maybe my 1909 choice wasn't that good. Prediction: 85 wins.

Here is where am I at so far... ten teams down, six to go. I am due up for a Yankees pick in League 1, but there are multiple years I would be happy with and don't want to pick a Yankees team yet plus I badly wanted to move up in the A's draft (in League 4). I noticed that emanes10 is due up in League 4. I also notice that he has a later pick in League 1 - in fact, our pick differences are the exact same number of spots... so I offer him a trade. He moves from 19 to 14 in league 1 and I move from 21 to 16 in league 4. He accepts.

schwarze League 1, Pick 2 --> 1905 Giants
schwarze League 1, Pick 14 --> traded down to pick 19
schwarze League 2, Pick 8 --> 1910 Red Sox
schwarze League 2, Pick 19
schwarze League 3, Pick 11 --> 1907 Naps
schwarze League 3, Pick 22
schwarze League 4, Pick 7 --> 1902 Pirates
schwarze League 4, Pick 21 --> traded up to pick 16
schwarze League 5, Pick 1 --> 1912 Cubs
schwarze League 5, Pick 11 --> 1962 White Sox
schwarze League 6, Pick 2 --> 1911 Braves
schwarze League 6, Pick 13 --> 1909 Tigers
schwarze League 7, Pick 2 --> 1912 Phillies
schwarze League 7, Pick 18
schwarze League 8, Pick 5 --> 1921 Senators
schwarze League 8, Pick 21

League 4, Pick #16
1913 Philadelphia Athletics
Here are the Athletics seasons selected before my turn in league 4 (I already had my Pirates team):
1911 Philadelphia Athletics (contrarian23)
1910 Philadelphia Athletics (Bill_James47)
1914 Philadelphia Athletics (njbigwig)
1926 Philadelphia Athletics (mllama54)
1988 Oakland Athletics (calhoop)
1971 Oakland Athletics (farleyfustle)
1973 Oakland Athletics (pedrocerrano)
1986 Oakland Athletics (ff09)
1969 Oakland Athletics (footballmm11)

Here is why I made the trade. There was a huge run on A's teams. Nine of the top fifteen picks were A's. I was really hoping to get 1971 or 1973 (I almost took 1971 at the end of the A's draft in round 1). I had built nine A's teams and seven were taken already. There was only one deadball team left available that was on my original list and I wanted it, even though I knew I'd get stuck in the same division as the top three A's teams selected (1910, 1911, 1914). Ironically, no A's teams were taken between pick 16 and pick 22, so there was a pretty good chance I'd get 1913 had I not made the trade. But that's ok, I didn't lose out on any of the Yankees teams I wanted. 1913 has basically the same roster as 1914, which went third among A's teams. This is going to be similar to the Pirates and Cubs leagues from round 1, where all four NL East teams could be over .500. So it comes down to luck in 1-run games. I don't usually do well in 1-run games, so I will predict fourth place in the division, with 83 wins.