Interesting theory about rd 1...here's who my low % picks netted and where it got me for rd 2:
Cubs: 2014 Jake Arrieta, pick 1.14 - 153 IP, 1.95ERC#, 1.03 Whip#, 0.29 HR/9 (I'd say he'll be pretty useful - netted me pick 2 in rd2)
Dodgers: 1905 Jimmy Sheckard, pick 1.11 - 601 PA, .296 AVG#, .387 OBP#, .811 OPS#, C+/B+ defense (no star for sure, but not a complete bum -- pick 1 in rd 2)
Reds: 1937 Lee Grissom, pick 1.14 - 236 IP, 3.00 ERC#, 1.26 Whip#, 0.28 HR/9 (maybe he fills some LongA IP, but this was to pick early for sure - pick 1 in rd 2)
Red Sox: 1932 Dale Alexander, pick 1.12 - 478 PA, .359 AVG#, .444 OBP#, .946 OPS#, B/A defense (won't play 162, but when he plays it should be good - pick 1 rd 2)
Giants: 1901 Christy Mathewson, pick 1.16 -- no numbers needed; all the best years were gone, meaning I needed to get in front of them in rd 2 and this accomplished that and provided serviceable deadball innings (pick 1 rd 2)
Phillies: 1930 Chuck Klein, 1.04 - 1.076 OPS#, I think that's enough (pick 2 in rd 2)
A's: 1916 Amos Strunk, 1.11 - 672 PA, .324 Avg#, .397 OBP#, .849 OPS#, B/B- (not a star, but a starter..pick 1 rd 2)
Twins/Sens: 1909 Walter Johnson, 1.13 - there were already 10 Walter's selected, plus 77 Carew...the only team I knew I wanted in rd 2 of any draft was in this draft, I wanted 1928...I didn't get them w/pick 1 of rd 2 because ff09 took them at 1.14 so taking the Walter on the worst team didn't work, per se (pick 1 rd 2)
Indians: 1985 Brett Butler, 1.14 - My current 5x5 team is 68-50 (.631 exp%) leading in runs scored -- I knew I wanted to piece as much of that team together again as possible. '85 certainly helped get us near the top, but also provided something my current edition doesn't have, an + defender in CF (,998/2.90)
What does this reveal...well that sure, not getting to pick too early in many of the rd 1s, I thought getting a usable player and picking near the top of rd 2 would be crucial to overcoming the head start others would have with a superior rd 1 player. I did pick in 10th or worst 3 times...I started those with 1972 Pat Dobson (Orioles pick 10 rd 2 -- ironically, he wasn't my choice when I made the selection but subsequent roster needs pushed in him for the original choice of Jim Palmer), 2011 Justin Verlander (Tigers, pick 13 rd 2), 1995 Greg Maddux (Braves, pick 14 rd 2).
We'll see in the coming months if it worked out as the right strategy or not.