As fun as these writeups are to read, I can recall very few times when anyone has revisited them after the season to discuss what worked and what didn't. So what follows are my exact writeups from P1, along with a brief summary of what actually happened:
70M: Not-So-Phabulous-Phillies
Everyone knows that at this cap level you have to compromise on something. My decision early on is that I would be willing to sacrifice on range. I love me some A+ range (as you will see in some of the other themes) but it's just too expensive at this cap. The other thing I decided to sacrifice was hitter PAs; I'm very willing to play guys at 90% or even lower fatigue at 70M.
Other design principles here:
-- I think every franchise can put together an acceptable bullpen at this cap, so I didn't really even look at my bullpen until I had the other pieces in place.
-- Power is a good strategy at 70M, and I expected that many teams would lean towards modern-era starters to take advantage of their PC boost (as detailed by just4me).
-- OBP is key; at 70M most pitchers will either give up HRs, walks, or OAV. High OBPs mean (a) more pitches for my opponent (b) better chances of HR driving in multiple runs/
With those concepts in mind, I looked at a few franchises, but quickly settled on the Phillies for a few reasons, starting with Gavvy Cravath and Tully Sparks, two players who generally do very well at this cap. I ended up with 5 starts with a .380+ OBP, and 2 others over .350.
Offense: .304/.372/.454
Pitching: 1309 IP, .219 OAV, 1.09 WHIP, 0.57 HR/9
Park: Connie Mack 0/-2/0/1/1; I though about Baker Bowl but decided the increased run scoring would only exacerbate the fatigue issues this team will face.
Prediction: 80 wins. Upside: 88
Actual: 83 wins, 4th place NLE, 12 games out, 11 games out of WC. This team was pretty bad in the first half (35-46), but won 13 of 15 after the break and ended the season on a 22-8 run to finish over .500.
What worked: Well, Cravath and Sparks, the two anchor players (and the reason I chose this franchise). Cravath was the league's Silver Slugger in CF: .272/.370/.479, 34 2B, 27 HR, 90 BB, 109 R, 86 RBI. Sparks won the Cy Young award: 17-12, 4 SHO, 2.41 ERA in 325 IP. Also, we certainly hit our share of homers, finishing 4th overall with 156. Six of the regulars hit well; in addition to Cravath: Chuck Klein, Buzz Arlett, Smoky Burgess, Don Hurst, and Cotton Tierney all were productive. Most of the pitching staff was pretty good, when I could keep them from being fatigued.
What didn't work: Despite my focus on OBP in drafting the team, we did not get on base particularly well. Our team OBP was only .324 compared to a league average of .326. Our 772 runs scored was barely above average. The big problem was having to rely on too many PAs from the bench, who were generally terrible. Then, Eppa Rixey, I was counting on him as my number 2 starter, and he was mediocre at best: 18-20, 4.93, and the league hit .307 against him. Pitching fatigue became a problem early on; I eventually solved it, but at the cost of burning way more mop up innings than I would have liked. My mopups combined to allow 128 runs in just 45 innings. Without them, we had an above-average pitching staff, but the mopups dropped us to 5th worst in the league in runs allowed. Our defense didn't help, the lack of range resulted in 120 minus plays.
80M: I Miss the Steroid Era
My primary strategies here were: (a) get at least some guys whose HRs will normalize well (b) modern pitchers with low BB/9 (c) A+ range wherever possible (d) a park that is negative for hits.
Four of my starters should normalize very well for HR: 1887 Billy O'Brien, 1914 Gavvy Cravath, 1945 Mel Ott, 1963 Willie McCovey (who has hit 60+ in multiple progressives). I have A+ range at all 4 infield positions. Every non mop-up pitcher as BB/9 less than 2.00, and most are well below that.
Offense: .282/.365/.491, 209 HR
Pitching: 1285 IP , .217 OAV, 0.98 WHIP, 0.85 HR/9, 1.39 BB/9
Park: Kingdome -2/1/-1/2/2
Prediction: 88 wins; Upside 95
Actual: 95 wins; 1st place ALW, won division by 6 games.
What worked: Pretty much everything. Our offense was above average. McCovey hit 70 HR and drove in 161. Ott hit 52 HR with a 1.017 OPS and won the silver slugger. O'Brien hit 61 HR. Our defense was very good; Odor and Longoria won the gold gloves at 2B and 3B respectively. The pitching staff was outstanding: we allowed the 2nd-fewest walks in the league, tied for the fewest runs allowed, outhomered our opponents by almost 100, and had the league's lowest ERA. Nola, Skubal, and Bieber finished 1st, 2nd, and 4th in the Cy Young race.
What didn't work: We didn't turn nearly as many plus plays as I would have hoped.
100M: 1916 White Sox
This was one of the first teams I looked at, and I liked them so much that other than looking at a few others, I didn't do much tinkering. I knew I wanted a late-teens team so that I could take advantage of deadball-pitching and twist some guys into the offense-rich 1920s. I also knew I wanted to find a way to roster 1908 Ed Walsh, who IMO is the absolute best value pitcher in all of SLB at 100M. Eddie Collins and Jack Fournier offered lots of flexibility with multiple excellent twist options. I was able to roster an A+ arm catcher, and B or better fielding at every position except for 1st base, which should help minimize the primary weakness of teams from this era: the errors. Plus, the 1916 ChiSox have a number of excellent pitchers in their base season (Benz, Russell, Cicotte, Faber).
My twists:
-1: 1915 Mellie Wolfgang
+2: 1918 Shano Collins
+3: 1919 John Cusack Buck Weaver
+4: 1920 Zeb Terry
-5: 1911 Eddie Collins
+6: 1922 Ray Schalk
+7: 1923 Jack Fournier
-8: 1908 Ed Walsh
The offense is not as strong as I would like (team OPS is lower than my 70M squad), but the pitching should be among the very best in the league.
Offense: .308/.364/.434 (and should normalize very well)
Pitching: 1394 IP, .202 OAV, 0.97 WHIP, 0.03 HR/9, 1.87 BB/9
Park: Comiskey1 1/0/1/-1/-2
Prediction: 85 wins; Upside: 95
Actual: 83 wins; tied for 2nd in the ALW, 4 games out; 5 games back of the WC. This league was insanely competitive. 15 of the 24 teams in the league won between 81 and 89 games. No one won more than 92. A few lucky breaks either way could have made the difference for almost any team.
What worked: Ed Walsh pitched 500 innings, won 30 games, had a 3.14 ERA, and won the Cy Young. Reb Russell was 20-12, 2.95, and finished 5th in the Cy Young. Eddie Collins had a .395 OBP and scored 104 runs. Jack Fournier was terrific: .304/.350/.465, 17 HR, 127 RBI.
What didn't work: The rest of the offense was terrible, and contrary to my assumption did not end up normalizing very well. Joe Jackson posted only .737 OPS and that was 3rd best on my team after Fournier and Collins. The bigger problem was the pitching staff. Despite great seasons from Walsh and Russell, we ended up below average in runs allowed. Like my 70M Phillies team, I had to use more mop up innings than I would have liked. But here the problem wasn't too few IP on the staff, per se, it was just a very imbalanced one. I only rostered 6 good pitchers, and Walsh was the only one with an IP/G over 6. I spent too much of the season juggling tandems to avoid fatigue. 116 runs allowed by my 2 mops in only 62 innings effectively killed this team's shot at a playoff berth.
110M: That's a Bingo (Homage to Christoph Waltz's incredible performance as Hans Landa in Inglorious Basterds)
Not much to say here, and this team I really wish I spent more time on. I started with 3 picks that I thought were obvious: Modern Dodgers (for the pitching); 80s-90s Cardinals (for switch hitters, speed, and defense), and the 1960s-70s Astros (more pitching). I picked the remaining 2 teams based on who best filled the holes in the lineup: 1940s-50s Phillies and 1920s-30s Tigers. 5 switch hitters in the starting lineup, 3 players over .450 OBP. But not enough power, and the defense isn't nearly as good as I would like. I'm very confident this team will not do well.
C: 1938 Rudy York
1B: 1994 Gregg Jefferies
2B: 1985 Tommy Herr
SS: 1986 Ozzie
3B: 1936 Billy Rogell (ugh)
LF: 1990 Willie McGee
CF: 1955 Richie Ashburn
RF: 1921 Ty Cobb
DH: 1925 Harry Heilmann
SPs: 1981 Don Sutton, 1963 Turk Farrell, 2016 Clayton Kershaw, 1946 Schoolboy Rowe, 2020 Tony Gonsoulin
Offense: .326/.408/.468
Pitching: 1400 IP .199 OAV, 0.93 WHIP, 0.41 HR/9, 1.64 BB/9
Park: Astrodome -1/0/1/-4/-4
Prediction: 75 wins; Upside: 85
Actual: 90 wins; 2nd in the NLW, 2 games back. Missed the WC by 1 game. This one hurt; not making the playoffs here probably cost me a spot in round 2.
What worked: A lot, given how much they overperformed by expectations. The defense was excellent in range, with 86 plus plays compared to 39 minus plays. We scored 907 runs and allowed 796 against a league average of .885. Ashburn hit .321/.410/.411 with 97 BB, 45 2B, 140 R, and 23 + plays, finishing 5th in the MVP. Heilmann hit .356/.409/.465 with 252 H, 122 RBI, 114 R. Jefferies hit .325/.380/.443 with 218 H, 44 2B, 145 RBI. Tommy Herr went 28 for 32 in steals and scored 104 runs. Our patchwork rotation of 4-6 starters was generally very effective. Sambito, Jansen, and Hill were excellent out of the pen. Ty Cobb racked up 28 plus plays in RF and won the GG.
What didn't work: Stop me if you've heard this before - too many mop up innings. 140 runs allowed in about 100 innings took this from a near-league-best pitching staff to a middle-of-the-pack one. Turk Farrell was very ineffective as a starter: 29 HR in only 210 innings, 1.52 WHIP, 5.36 ERA. Cobb has 200 hits and drove in 110 runs, but delivered only a .770 OPS (I was expecting at least 100 points higher). Rudy York slugged .376.
125M: Dopplegangers (because I expect we will see much more roster similarity in this league than in any other)
As others have said, I think the key here is to avoid spending $ on PA and IP that you aren't going to use, so I focused primarily on that. No real surprises here. I have 2019 Ketel Marte, whom I suspect will be on at least 50% of rosters), 1990 Willie McGee (whom I expect we will also see a lot of), and then a bunch of platoons. Pitching is a hodgepodge of guys in the 120-170 IP range.
C: 1954 Smoky Burgess and 1889 Jock Milligan
1B: 1902 Charlie Hickman
2B: 1926 Eddie Collins and 1899 Nap Lajoie
SS: 2013 Hanley Ramirez and 2020 Jose Iglesias (why I didn't get a L/R platoon here or a SH...I'm an idiot)
3B: 1896 Bill Joyce and 2020 Ke'Bryan Hayes
LF: 1944 Dick Wakefield and 1987 Rickey Henderson
CF: 2019 Marte
RF: 1990 McGee
PH extraordinaire: 1953 Ted Williams
Sneaky good-hitting pitcher: 2019 Zack Greinke (.271/.300/.583)
Offense: 5822 PA, .348/.418/.547
Pitching: 1586 IP, .208 OAV, 0.95 WHIP, 0.45 HR/9, 1.44 BB/9
Park: WIS
Prediction: 88 wins; Upside 95
Actual: 90 wins; 1st place NLC, won a tight division by 4 games. Another VERY competitive league (in the NL only); 9 of 12 teams won 81-90 games and our 90 wins was the best record in the NL.
What worked: Schoolboy Rowe! He went 25-1 in a tandem starting role and won the Cy Young award. Nathan Eovaldi shuttled between a tandem role and a LR role and went 10-1 with 8 saves and a 1.17 ERA. Tony Gonsolin was used similarly with similar results: 9-4, 12 saves, 2.77. Our offense scored 808 runs, 4th overall and just 21 behind the overall league leader. Our platoon arrangements generally worked very well. Dick Wakefield (.330/.399/.526), Eddie Collins (,399 OBP), Ketel Marte (26 HR, 113 RBI) were some of the highlights. And a real joy was being able to see 1953 Ted Williams PH and make a few key starts in big games. Ted hit .397/.469/.976 for a 1.445 OPS, with 22 HR (!) and 55 RBI (!!) in only 145 PA. Overall, we "wasted" very few PA and IP, which was one of the goals in the roster build, and seems to have paid off.
What didn't work: Charlie Hickman, Nap Lajoie, Willie McGee, and Jose Iglesias all posted OPS below .700. Iglesias also made 16 minus plays while playing only about half of the defensive innings at SS. John Denny, Ray Prim, Slim Sallee, and Zack Greinke all pitched below expectations and turned a very good staff into a league-average one.
140M: X Gonna Give It To Ya
I didn't even bother building a round 2 team other than to general pick guys whom I knew had usable seasons at that cap. A few guys I knew I wanted right off the bat: Walsh, Maddux, Kershaw for pitchers. Ewing, Frisch, Reilly, Cobb, Speaker for hitters. Built everything else around that. Filled in relief pitchers last, as usual. I have A+ range at 2B, 3B, CF, but would have liked more. No idea how this team will do, which usually means "not well."
1963 Aaron DH
1913 Baker 3B
1910 Cobb RF
1897 G. Davis SS
1890 Ewing C
1927 Frisch 2B
2022 Phil Gosselin SCRUB
2015 R. Hill RP
2022 Iglesias RP
2017 Jansen RP
2015 Kershaw SP
1911 Lapp C
1994 Maddux SP
2017 Neshek RP
1932 O'Doul LF
2018 O. Perez RP
1918 Quinn RP
1888 Reilly 1B
1917 Speaker CF
1963 Tiefenauer RP
2015 Uehara RP
2017 Verlander RP
1908 Walsh SP
1914 Yerkes MIF
1999 Zimmerman RP
Offense: .344/.408/.519 (am I concerned that this team's offense is worse than my 125M? Yes, yes I am, thank you for asking)
Pitching: 1470 IP; .189 OAV, 0.85 WHIP, 0.31 HR/9, 1.38 BB/9
Park: Dodger Stadium 2/-4/-3/-1/-1
Prediction: 80 wins; Upside 85
Actual: 83 wins, 3rd place ALC, 8 games back, 5 games out of the WC.
What worked: Run prevention. 693 runs allowed, 4th best in the league. 153 plus plays (2nd best) against only 11 minus plays. Ed Walsh made 80 starts, pitched over 500 innings, won 29 games, had a 3.57 ERA, and finished 3rd in the Cy Young. Maddux went 20-12, 3.96. The bullpen other than Verlander (1.62 WHIP) and Zimmerman (5.06 ERA) was excellent. Frankie Frisch, Tris Speaker, and Ty Cobb combined good offense with excellent defense (45, 32, and 23 plus plays, respectively) to finish 1st, 4th, and 5th in the MVP voting.
What didn't work: Run production. The offense overall was very mediocre. 787 runs scored was below average. Guys I was really counting on (Reilly, Aaron, Baker) couldn't even manage a .700 OPS, and both halves of my catching platoon (Ewing, Lapp) were below .600.