Posted by basketcall on 2/24/2012 8:45:00 PM (view original):
A couple of you are missing the point. The next best value is already there, and always will be.
There is not already another flat tire, and hopefully when you wipe there's not still more there...
I have actually calculated the value* of every pitcher in the sim and can tell you Joss is pretty uniquly valuable.
* value = expected salary based on performance (or expected performance) less actual salary.
Joss is only ~600th in value/IP at ~$5200. (He costs ~$37,400/ IP. He should cost ~$42,500). However, among pitchers with over 150 IP and an expected era under 3.00, he is pretty unique and the best value. The next best value pitcher is '14 Leonard who is worth ~$3,200/IP more than his salary. Only two others: '17 Cicotte and '19 Alexander have half the value of '08 Joss on a $/IP basis.
In terms of absolute value (expected salary less actual salary), '08 Joss rules them all with ~$1.8M in value. '09 Morgan is close at about $1.7M in value, but he isn't a number one starter like Joss. '07 Joss is the only other pitcher to top $1.5M. When you look at pitchers that you'd expect to have less than a 3.00 era, Joss looks even better. '08 Walsh, '18 Teney and '08 Mathewson are the only others to top $1M at $1.1, $1.1 and $1.0 respectively. Only five others even have half Joss' total value: '17 Cicotte ($980K), '10 Walsh ($950K), '15 Alexander ($940K), '08 Steele ($920K), '19 Nehf ($900K). '14 Hendrix ($780) just misses the cut.
You are right, people would move down the line-- I think '08 Matheson would become the next major cookie pitcher-- but the next best pitcher wouldn't be nearly the value Joss is. The next best value probably wouldn't influence the sim like Joss.
2/25/2012 4:30 PM (edited)