I lost a recruiting battle today when I was favored at 74%.

Wondering what the biggest "upset" we've seen is? Anybody seen an 80% loser? Is that even possible? Do we know where moderate to high changes at?

I know I posted this in the other thread - not trying to spam, but think it's worth sharing. The 21% DIII school won.

Team	Coach	Division	Prestige	Int Level	Scholarship Offer?	Odds
UConn	treyomo	DI	A-	Very High	Yes	39%
West Virginia	dabomb163783	DI	C+	Very High	Yes	40%
Union	snewell12	DIII	A+	High	Yes	21%

What surprised me most - at the 5pm cycle, I was very high, no one else above moderate, and I added 3 HVs after that cycle. Somehow Union, with only one additional cycle of APs, was able to gain enough to move to high despite my additional HVs. So, a A- DI program's 15 HVs, 1 CV, and 500 APs is barely better than a DIII A+ program's 20 HV, 1 CV, promises (I assume), and some amount more of APs - but it couldn't have been too many more, because he signed three other DII level recruits in the late cycle as well, so he couldn't have been dumping all APs into that one player the entire time.

Posted by treyomo on 2/17/2017 1:25:00 PM (view original):
I know I posted this in the other thread - not trying to spam, but think it's worth sharing. The 21% DIII school won.

Team	Coach	Division	Prestige	Int Level	Scholarship Offer?	Odds
UConn	treyomo	DI	A-	Very High	Yes	39%
West Virginia	dabomb163783	DI	C+	Very High	Yes	40%
Union	snewell12	DIII	A+	High	Yes	21%

What surprised me most - at the 5pm cycle, I was very high, no one else above moderate, and I added 3 HVs after that cycle. Somehow Union, with only one additional cycle of APs, was able to gain enough to move to high despite my additional HVs. So, a A- DI program's 15 HVs, 1 CV, and 500 APs is barely better than a DIII A+ program's 20 HV, 1 CV, promises (I assume), and some amount more of APs - but it couldn't have been too many more, because he signed three other DII level recruits in the late cycle as well, so he couldn't have been dumping all APs into that one player the entire time.

That is an utterly preposterous result.

Wasn't there a D-2 or D-3 school not too long ago that knocked off 3 D-1 A or A+ prestige teams? I would have to say that would be the biggest upset I've seen.

Posted by jpmills3 on 2/17/2017 1:33:00 PM (view original):

Posted by treyomo on 2/17/2017 1:25:00 PM (view original):
I know I posted this in the other thread - not trying to spam, but think it's worth sharing. The 21% DIII school won.

Team	Coach	Division	Prestige	Int Level	Scholarship Offer?	Odds
UConn	treyomo	DI	A-	Very High	Yes	39%
West Virginia	dabomb163783	DI	C+	Very High	Yes	40%
Union	snewell12	DIII	A+	High	Yes	21%

What surprised me most - at the 5pm cycle, I was very high, no one else above moderate, and I added 3 HVs after that cycle. Somehow Union, with only one additional cycle of APs, was able to gain enough to move to high despite my additional HVs. So, a A- DI program's 15 HVs, 1 CV, and 500 APs is barely better than a DIII A+ program's 20 HV, 1 CV, promises (I assume), and some amount more of APs - but it couldn't have been too many more, because he signed three other DII level recruits in the late cycle as well, so he couldn't have been dumping all APs into that one player the entire time.

That is an utterly preposterous result.

No, it's not. (1) Promises are big. (2) No mention of preferences, which are also big. (3) A 21% chance of winning is still a chance of winning.

Posted by CoachSpud on 2/17/2017 2:20:00 PM (view original):

Posted by jpmills3 on 2/17/2017 1:33:00 PM (view original):

Posted by treyomo on 2/17/2017 1:25:00 PM (view original):
I know I posted this in the other thread - not trying to spam, but think it's worth sharing. The 21% DIII school won.

Team	Coach	Division	Prestige	Int Level	Scholarship Offer?	Odds
UConn	treyomo	DI	A-	Very High	Yes	39%
West Virginia	dabomb163783	DI	C+	Very High	Yes	40%
Union	snewell12	DIII	A+	High	Yes	21%

What surprised me most - at the 5pm cycle, I was very high, no one else above moderate, and I added 3 HVs after that cycle. Somehow Union, with only one additional cycle of APs, was able to gain enough to move to high despite my additional HVs. So, a A- DI program's 15 HVs, 1 CV, and 500 APs is barely better than a DIII A+ program's 20 HV, 1 CV, promises (I assume), and some amount more of APs - but it couldn't have been too many more, because he signed three other DII level recruits in the late cycle as well, so he couldn't have been dumping all APs into that one player the entire time.

That is an utterly preposterous result.

No, it's not. (1) Promises are big. (2) No mention of preferences, which are also big. (3) A 21% chance of winning is still a chance of winning.

I don't think it's preposterous, but gives great insight on the weights given to various actions. Per snewell's post in the other results thread:

- He had 1200 more APs
- He had four fewer home visits
- Both had a CV
- He promised 15 mins + start, no promises for me
- He had two very good preferences zero bad, I had one very good preference and 2 bad


What I read from this:
- values of APs between DI and DIII are not as different as I thought;
- HVs don't carry as much weight as I thought
- Promises and preferences don't consider division as part of weighting

Once he got to high, the math (regardless of division says he had a 1 in 5 chance, and he hit that. Still, to me the most surprising part is the status improvement in the last cycle. I know I was the only VH or H prior to the cycle he signed - those last cycle visits and APs he performed were enough to outweight the three HVs and 80 APs I applied in the cycle he signed.

I bear no ill will to snewell - he made a calculated risk play and hit the jackpot, and I wasn't aggressive enough in closing the deal. I'm just surprised that the DI vs DIII doesn't carry more weight.

Posted by jpmills3 on 2/17/2017 1:33:00 PM (view original):

Posted by treyomo on 2/17/2017 1:25:00 PM (view original):
I know I posted this in the other thread - not trying to spam, but think it's worth sharing. The 21% DIII school won.

Team	Coach	Division	Prestige	Int Level	Scholarship Offer?	Odds
UConn	treyomo	DI	A-	Very High	Yes	39%
West Virginia	dabomb163783	DI	C+	Very High	Yes	40%
Union	snewell12	DIII	A+	High	Yes	21%

What surprised me most - at the 5pm cycle, I was very high, no one else above moderate, and I added 3 HVs after that cycle. Somehow Union, with only one additional cycle of APs, was able to gain enough to move to high despite my additional HVs. So, a A- DI program's 15 HVs, 1 CV, and 500 APs is barely better than a DIII A+ program's 20 HV, 1 CV, promises (I assume), and some amount more of APs - but it couldn't have been too many more, because he signed three other DII level recruits in the late cycle as well, so he couldn't have been dumping all APs into that one player the entire time.

That is an utterly preposterous result.

+1. This is insane. It's one thing when a DIII team wins when the DI team half-***** it. 15HVs, a CV, and 500 APs is not half-assing it.

Posted by johnsensing on 2/17/2017 6:09:00 PM (view original):

Posted by jpmills3 on 2/17/2017 1:33:00 PM (view original):

Posted by treyomo on 2/17/2017 1:25:00 PM (view original):
I know I posted this in the other thread - not trying to spam, but think it's worth sharing. The 21% DIII school won.

Team	Coach	Division	Prestige	Int Level	Scholarship Offer?	Odds
UConn	treyomo	DI	A-	Very High	Yes	39%
West Virginia	dabomb163783	DI	C+	Very High	Yes	40%
Union	snewell12	DIII	A+	High	Yes	21%

What surprised me most - at the 5pm cycle, I was very high, no one else above moderate, and I added 3 HVs after that cycle. Somehow Union, with only one additional cycle of APs, was able to gain enough to move to high despite my additional HVs. So, a A- DI program's 15 HVs, 1 CV, and 500 APs is barely better than a DIII A+ program's 20 HV, 1 CV, promises (I assume), and some amount more of APs - but it couldn't have been too many more, because he signed three other DII level recruits in the late cycle as well, so he couldn't have been dumping all APs into that one player the entire time.

That is an utterly preposterous result.

+1. This is insane. It's one thing when a DIII team wins when the DI team half-***** it. 15HVs, a CV, and 500 APs is not half-assing it.

+2

Posted by Benis on 2/17/2017 6:20:00 PM (view original):

Posted by johnsensing on 2/17/2017 6:09:00 PM (view original):

Posted by jpmills3 on 2/17/2017 1:33:00 PM (view original):

Posted by treyomo on 2/17/2017 1:25:00 PM (view original):
I know I posted this in the other thread - not trying to spam, but think it's worth sharing. The 21% DIII school won.

Team	Coach	Division	Prestige	Int Level	Scholarship Offer?	Odds
UConn	treyomo	DI	A-	Very High	Yes	39%
West Virginia	dabomb163783	DI	C+	Very High	Yes	40%
Union	snewell12	DIII	A+	High	Yes	21%

What surprised me most - at the 5pm cycle, I was very high, no one else above moderate, and I added 3 HVs after that cycle. Somehow Union, with only one additional cycle of APs, was able to gain enough to move to high despite my additional HVs. So, a A- DI program's 15 HVs, 1 CV, and 500 APs is barely better than a DIII A+ program's 20 HV, 1 CV, promises (I assume), and some amount more of APs - but it couldn't have been too many more, because he signed three other DII level recruits in the late cycle as well, so he couldn't have been dumping all APs into that one player the entire time.

That is an utterly preposterous result.

+1. This is insane. It's one thing when a DIII team wins when the DI team half-***** it. 15HVs, a CV, and 500 APs is not half-assing it.

+2

+3

Posted by treyomo on 2/17/2017 1:25:00 PM (view original):
I know I posted this in the other thread - not trying to spam, but think it's worth sharing. The 21% DIII school won.

Team	Coach	Division	Prestige	Int Level	Scholarship Offer?	Odds
UConn	treyomo	DI	A-	Very High	Yes	39%
West Virginia	dabomb163783	DI	C+	Very High	Yes	40%
Union	snewell12	DIII	A+	High	Yes	21%

What surprised me most - at the 5pm cycle, I was very high, no one else above moderate, and I added 3 HVs after that cycle. Somehow Union, with only one additional cycle of APs, was able to gain enough to move to high despite my additional HVs. So, a A- DI program's 15 HVs, 1 CV, and 500 APs is barely better than a DIII A+ program's 20 HV, 1 CV, promises (I assume), and some amount more of APs - but it couldn't have been too many more, because he signed three other DII level recruits in the late cycle as well, so he couldn't have been dumping all APs into that one player the entire time.

You see this is something that don't add up. Snafu pushed me to moderate while I had built a lot of ap, 20 hvs, 1cv and start + minutes. It was A+ to B-. I felt it was allright because of prestige difference. But how can a d3 hang with a A-team while I cannot even do it at PSU sometimes.

Posted by treyomo on 2/17/2017 2:42:00 PM (view original):

Posted by CoachSpud on 2/17/2017 2:20:00 PM (view original):

Posted by jpmills3 on 2/17/2017 1:33:00 PM (view original):

Posted by treyomo on 2/17/2017 1:25:00 PM (view original):
I know I posted this in the other thread - not trying to spam, but think it's worth sharing. The 21% DIII school won.

Team	Coach	Division	Prestige	Int Level	Scholarship Offer?	Odds
UConn	treyomo	DI	A-	Very High	Yes	39%
West Virginia	dabomb163783	DI	C+	Very High	Yes	40%
Union	snewell12	DIII	A+	High	Yes	21%

What surprised me most - at the 5pm cycle, I was very high, no one else above moderate, and I added 3 HVs after that cycle. Somehow Union, with only one additional cycle of APs, was able to gain enough to move to high despite my additional HVs. So, a A- DI program's 15 HVs, 1 CV, and 500 APs is barely better than a DIII A+ program's 20 HV, 1 CV, promises (I assume), and some amount more of APs - but it couldn't have been too many more, because he signed three other DII level recruits in the late cycle as well, so he couldn't have been dumping all APs into that one player the entire time.

That is an utterly preposterous result.

No, it's not. (1) Promises are big. (2) No mention of preferences, which are also big. (3) A 21% chance of winning is still a chance of winning.

I don't think it's preposterous, but gives great insight on the weights given to various actions. Per snewell's post in the other results thread:

- He had 1200 more APs
- He had four fewer home visits
- Both had a CV
- He promised 15 mins + start, no promises for me
- He had two very good preferences zero bad, I had one very good preference and 2 bad


What I read from this:
- values of APs between DI and DIII are not as different as I thought;
- HVs don't carry as much weight as I thought
- Promises and preferences don't consider division as part of weighting

Once he got to high, the math (regardless of division says he had a 1 in 5 chance, and he hit that. Still, to me the most surprising part is the status improvement in the last cycle. I know I was the only VH or H prior to the cycle he signed - those last cycle visits and APs he performed were enough to outweight the three HVs and 80 APs I applied in the cycle he signed.

I bear no ill will to snewell - he made a calculated risk play and hit the jackpot, and I wasn't aggressive enough in closing the deal. I'm just surprised that the DI vs DIII doesn't carry more weight.

Prestige jump from D3 to D1 has to 3 for 1 on any action...

Posted by zorzii on 2/17/2017 7:50:00 PM (view original):

Posted by treyomo on 2/17/2017 1:25:00 PM (view original):
I know I posted this in the other thread - not trying to spam, but think it's worth sharing. The 21% DIII school won.

Team	Coach	Division	Prestige	Int Level	Scholarship Offer?	Odds
UConn	treyomo	DI	A-	Very High	Yes	39%
West Virginia	dabomb163783	DI	C+	Very High	Yes	40%
Union	snewell12	DIII	A+	High	Yes	21%

What surprised me most - at the 5pm cycle, I was very high, no one else above moderate, and I added 3 HVs after that cycle. Somehow Union, with only one additional cycle of APs, was able to gain enough to move to high despite my additional HVs. So, a A- DI program's 15 HVs, 1 CV, and 500 APs is barely better than a DIII A+ program's 20 HV, 1 CV, promises (I assume), and some amount more of APs - but it couldn't have been too many more, because he signed three other DII level recruits in the late cycle as well, so he couldn't have been dumping all APs into that one player the entire time.

You see this is something that don't add up. Snafu pushed me to moderate while I had built a lot of ap, 20 hvs, 1cv and start + minutes. It was A+ to B-. I felt it was allright because of prestige difference. But how can a d3 hang with a A-team while I cannot even do it at PSU sometimes.

Zorzii-
FWIW, I had been building AP on him for a while, but did not have the resources to go all in until my EE left. At the end of period 1, I had CV, 6 HV, PS, 25min. After my EE declared, the first cycle of period 2 I upped to an additional 20 AP, and did 14 more HV. With the prestige gap I honestly thought I might push you to low but I didn't know how many AP you had into him. I think I was around 600-700 in the end but I cant remember for sure.

I had 44 ap a cycle on him throughout. How many cycles did we have? I was prolly over 1k. But I think it's the prefs that did the trick.

Posted by zorzii on 2/17/2017 8:42:00 PM (view original):
I had 44 ap a cycle on him throughout. How many cycles did we have? I was prolly over 1k. But I think it's the prefs that did the trick.

My preferences were fairly strong (one of the reasons I targeted him as a late, after EE pickup). If I recall I had at least one more VG than you could have, and a good for def.

Preferences aside, if we were both all in, before AP, I would have had about 50-60% more effort credit on account of prestige alone.

If we want to play lottery/ coin flip basketball, this makes perfect sense.
If we want to reward everyone and give participation trophies at the end, this is a good result. And we should probably have Kum-by-a singalongs afterwards.
If we want to play a game that tries to build DYNASTIES, this makes Zero sense at all. It is moronic.
If we want this to mirror real life, this also makes zero sense at all.