I now have 10 Seasons worth of data from Allen 94/95, Tark 128/129, Smith 96/97, Iba 95/96, Phelan 108/109.

Total

Likely Going	86.3%
On the fence	44.7%
Likely Staying	14.0%
Staying	3.8%
Not on board	2.8%*

*not on board means that 2.8% of all players that actually go EE weren't on the big board at all.

I'll continue to do other worlds I'm in (Phelan and Iba are soon). But if others want to share data from their worlds, please do so.

On the two players who left that were Likely Staying in Tark.

1 guy went to S16 and didn't have any postseason awards (not even all conference)
2nd guy went to 2nd round and was Honorable Mention AA.

The two that didn't leave but were listed as Likely Going

1st was #22 on big board on a team that won the Nat Championship and was Honorable Mention AA.
2nd guy was #4 and on a team that had 6 seniors so he couldn't go.

Very surprised how many stay when "on the fence". I am 0-5.

Something that might skew the data a bit are whether a team has hit the cap already (ex. 5 SRs and losing 1 EE will prevent all others that might be on the big board to stay regardless of their board status).

Also are EEs independent events (does the likely hood of an EE reduce the probability of additional ones occurring) and does that apply to also previous seasons (having multiple EEs occur the previous season reduce the probability of having ones in the current season).

I think they are independent events except for the cap on graduating seniors plus EEs.

Posted by buddhagamer on 8/14/2017 2:38:00 PM (view original):
Something that might skew the data a bit are whether a team has hit the cap already (ex. 5 SRs and losing 1 EE will prevent all others that might be on the big board to stay regardless of their board status).

Also are EEs independent events (does the likely hood of an EE reduce the probability of additional ones occurring) and does that apply to also previous seasons (having multiple EEs occur the previous season reduce the probability of having ones in the current season).

Yeah great point about the cap. I already did see the one example with Duke. I'm going to go through and see how often it really happens and that'll give us an idea of how much the data is being skewed. My hope is that once you collect enough data that it's a low enough occurrence that the data is still pretty reliable.

I would also keep track of what year they were, Freshman, Soph, Junior
Id be willing to bet the younger they are the more likely they are to stay

Posted by crzyballplay on 8/14/2017 5:58:00 PM (view original):
I would also keep track of what year they were, Freshman, Soph, Junior
Id be willing to bet the younger they are the more likely they are to stay

I thought that was already factored in when determining the status (likely leaving, staying, etc).

benis is right

Posted by Benis on 8/14/2017 1:36:00 PM (view original):
On the two players who left that were Likely Staying in Tark.

1 guy went to S16 and didn't have any postseason awards (not even all conference)
2nd guy went to 2nd round and was Honorable Mention AA.

S16, no awards, soph, wasn't even a starter for 80% of the season...hope he's enjoying the d-league while he learns how to shoot. godspeed, lil PG.

Posted by Benis on 8/14/2017 6:05:00 PM (view original):

Posted by crzyballplay on 8/14/2017 5:58:00 PM (view original):
I would also keep track of what year they were, Freshman, Soph, Junior
Id be willing to bet the younger they are the more likely they are to stay

I thought that was already factored in when determining the status (likely leaving, staying, etc).

Only a direct correlation with freshmen, who are usually (always, I think) listed as staying. Sophs can be likely going, on the fence, or likely staying.

Posted by bathtubhippo on 8/14/2017 8:48:00 PM (view original):

Posted by Benis on 8/14/2017 1:36:00 PM (view original):
On the two players who left that were Likely Staying in Tark.

1 guy went to S16 and didn't have any postseason awards (not even all conference)
2nd guy went to 2nd round and was Honorable Mention AA.

S16, no awards, soph, wasn't even a starter for 80% of the season...hope he's enjoying the d-league while he learns how to shoot. godspeed, lil PG.

To be fair he has a kid to support and is 2 months behind on utilities. As a multi-hundred dollar industry, I think WIS should start paying it's players

The cap is not real any more unless it's all seniors. It used to be that you could only lose 6 total, includingwalkons and ee's. Now it's 6 total plus walkons.
Jusst so you know, I lost five ee's plus multiple seniors twice in 3.0, complained and an excuse was made...
land this year I lose 2 seniors, one walkon, and 4 ee's for a total of 7. Which leaves me with five on the roster, which is crap. I thought it was a six person cap.