Thursday, September 29, 2005
8:00 PM - 9:00 PM EST
The LIVE portion of this chat will begin on
Thursday, September 29, 2005 at 8:00 PM EST.
What's up everybody? SimLeague Baseball is going to see a large update on Monday. New player salaries, revamped pitching fatigue system, new records, etc. I'm ready for all your pre-update questions, so let 'er rip...Let's see if the Red Sox can battle back before the end of the chat.
Will you still be using a version of the log 5 formula to determine match-ups between eras? (dontrellew - All-Star - 7:57 PM)
The log-5 formula will continue to be the heart and soul of the individual batter-pitcher matchup. It hasn't been touched in the update.
tz... is one of your goals to keep the plate appearances for batters and the innings pitched for pitchers from going over those which the players actually experienced? (thecolonel - Prospect - 7:59 PM)
For the most part. We allow for a 10% cushion to account for being in better lineups, different parks, etc. We definitely don't want a 250IP starter to be able to reach 400IP out of the pen. And we don't want Kevin Maas to be able to hit 70HR in 600 AB.
why cant you designate how your pinch hitters will be selected? (dodger97 - Pro - 8:01 PM)
We're always trying to add things to SimLeague Baseball, but we want to stay away from making the game too difficult and overwhelming for new users. This is why it hasn't been done yet. However, it will be part of Hardball Dynasty and will probably make it's way over to SimLeague Baseball sometime after that.
Tom, I think a lot of people are wondering this. How did you come up with the catcher arm ratings? What real life stats were used when coming up with them? (ozomatli - Hall of Famer - 8:04 PM)
We use actual SBA and CS numbers for players when available. Based on the several decades of info we have for catchers, we were able to derive some incredibly accurate formulas. These formulas are then used for seasons in which the data isn't available.
How are you going to determine Caught stealing for baserunners and catcher arm ratings without the actual statistics? (dontrellew - All-Star - 8:06 PM)
This is similar to the previous question. We run analyses on the data we actually do have and derive the best formula using the actual data with additional data we know we have for all players throughout history. We then use this formula on the players/seasons where the real data isn't available.
is it just my misperceprion that aaa rookie pitchers fare better than aaa rookie hitters? (thecolonel - Prospect - 8:08 PM)
It's probably a misperception. The prospects we use come from a specific salary range, and we make sure the range is comparable for both hitters and pitchers. I'll double-check this, though, and make sure the balance is still in place.
Will you normalize the SB/CS formula for era? (bkoron - Prospect - 8:10 PM)
It's not in the plans. If it's something you feel strongly about, start a forum thread and build some support. If it's something that would improve the game, we'll consider adding it.
Waht is the capitol of Asyria? (sbob85 - Hall of Famer - 8:11 PM)
i think very few runners stole 40 bases or were successful 70% of the time before 1920 ... will your sim allow a lot of ancient players to reach those figures? (thecolonel - Prospect - 8:12 PM)
It should be proportional to the number of players that actually did it. Catcher arms and adjusted CS% numbers should definitely reduce the number of SBs currently being earned in SimLeague play.
why isn't montgomery ward in the sim? (thecolonel - Prospect - 8:17 PM)
He goes by John Ward. Not sure why.
What effect will the update have on the strategy of using 5 120-or-so-IP relievers and having them all throw 10 pitches a game? If they can be in 70% of their team's games before fatigue sets in, that means 112 appearances each, right? ~BK (bkoron - Prospect - 8:17 PM)
That's partially correct. If the pitcher keeps his pitch count low and his projected pitch count isn't near the actual pitch count, he won't show signs of game usage fatigue until he exceeds 70% of his team games. However, if his pitch counts are higher (but still under the actual pitch count), he will fatigue because the formula is based on two components (game usage and pitch counts).
what do you expect to be the maximum number of appearances a pitcher will reach in the new season? (thecolonel - Prospect - 8:19 PM)
162, if a user wants to pitch him regardless of fatigue. He'll put up horrible numbers once he starts fatiguing heavily, but he'll still be able to pitch every game. For those who want to keep him at 100% each time he pitches, 112 games should be the limit.
it seems unrealistic to me to have pitchers that i KNOW could pitch 120-130 pitches in a game and then come back after 3 or 4 days rest and do it again, yet it appears to be impossible in the sim (thecolonel - Prospect - 8:22 PM)
It is possible, as long as his actual numbers for the entire season indicate he can do so. Don't expect a guy like Curt Schilling to be able to do it in the Sim, though, just because he did it in the playoffs last year.
i apologize that this is a comment instead of a question, but i just DO NOT LIKE pitchers being able to pitch 112 games with good stats ... it's VERY unrealistic... (thecolonel - Prospect - 8:23 PM)
It's unrealistic for the modern player, but not for deadballers. This is our attempt to introduce more realism into the game without destroying the "whatif" managerial tactics.
If I am considering using 8 position players and now 3 of their salaries have gone up, 2 have stayed the same, and 3 have gone down, how do I determine which ones are good buys and which ones aren't? (TonyK - Prospect - 8:27 PM)
The new salaries incorporate normalization effects and fielding ability. As a result, the players should perform more inline with how they are priced. I'm sure you guys/girls will still find players that consistenly perform better than others, which will always be part of the fun of building a winning team.
MLB record: 106 games per season, including deadballers. Sorry, I realize that's not a question. (bkoron - Prospect - 8:28 PM)
how early in a season do rookies' ratings change, and, once they move in one direction, will they keep going or do they sometimes rebound? does time in the majors affect their ratings more than does time in the minors? (thecolonel - Prospect - 8:30 PM)
Prospect ratings don't actually change during the season. But you don't really know what you have until you play them either. Our dynasty baseball game will be all about player development, though.
AAA is a big part of the game. Have you thought of tinkering with it further? Maybe you could include a 'potential' rating. With x amount of time on the minor squad perhaps the AAA player could improve on his intial rating. (zito - Hall of Famer - 8:32 PM)
We plan on keeping the prospect design simple in SimLeague Baseball for at least the near future. Once our dynasty game is firmly entrenched, we will probably bring some of the features over to the SimLeagues, especially in terms of prospects.
So are you coming to poker night? (kyleboon - Hall of Famer - 8:32 PM)
Doubtful, much like the Reds chances in 2006.
For the fatigue system in regards to resting pitchers: Right now if someone throws way over their suggested PC, they'll be in the red for days and miss several games before even being in the blue. Will the new fatigue system also effect the resting arms? (Thunderclese - Hall of Famer - 8:33 PM)
Yes, it'll work the same way. As a pitcher rests, his fatigue will decrease. The level of his initial fatigue will be based on how far over his limits he went.
Something completely off the updates..however, with user profiles and ratings, is it possible to seperate theme league records to open league records? To see who are the more well rounded users are? (Thunderclese - Hall of Famer - 8:34 PM)
This will be part of the update. We greatly expanded the records and broken them down into Open and Theme Leagues. Everything will start from scratch except the main User records.
What is the air-speed velocity of an unladen swallow? (tinmanpb - Hall of Famer - 8:35 PM)
Faster than Sean Casey but slower than Willy Taveras.
Not to beat a dead horse but, for the more mathematically inclined WIS owners, could you be persuaded to share with us the formula you use for catcher arm ratings when the basic SBA/CS data is not available? (lx88aod - Newbie - 8:40 PM)
We use 3 equations, one for each era of baseball (deadball, 1921-1946, and modern). I'll post the equations here tomorrow.
And after Mike Marshall, there's 2. Kent Tekulve 94 1979 3. Mike Marshall 92 1973 4. Kent Tekulve 91 1978 5. Wayne Granger 90 1969 Mike Marshall 90 1979 Kent Tekulve 90 1987 These are the only guys to ever make 90 appearances in a season. Yet in WIS, 112 appearances with a well-managed pitch count will still be no problem. See why the Colonel thinks it's silly? Silly silly silly? (Lotta Monty Python fans on this site) (bkoron - Prospect - 8:43 PM)
We initially went with 55%, but it didn't take long for the users in our test leagues to convince us to raise the limit. Since we know users can't be on our site prior to every single game, we have to provide some flexibility/leeway in how relievers are used. So, we settled on 70% which is an improvement over 100%.
Will the update effect how a user moves up and/or down in the owner ratings? (Thunderclese - Hall of Famer - 8:43 PM)
hi trent.any plans on changing the status of players.levels for hof as an example.we have babe ruths and phil rizzuto's (carlnault - Hall of Famer - 8:45 PM)
I don't believe so. Since the levels are across all sports, we couldn't really use a sport-specific reference. Introducing individual sport levels isn't out of the question, though.
pardon the newbie q, but does a player's stamina increase if he sits on the bench and doesn't play? if he pinch hits and watches 3 strikes? (thecolonel - Prospect - 8:46 PM)
If a player doesn't appear in a game, his fatigue will decrease/stamina rise. When a player has an plate appearance, he fatigues at the same rate whether it's a 12 pitch at-bat or a 3-pitch, Rob Deer strikeout.
Is it done or in the making the ability to do a search in the draft center for a player by errors? (Thunderclese - Hall of Famer - 8:47 PM)
We could add it, but we never thought anybody would search by it since players play multiple positions and this would just be a total across all positions.
How much difference in catcher price is a good arm worth? How about a bad arm? (bkoron - Prospect - 8:48 PM)
The difference between the same player with the best arm and the worst arm would be ~13%.
i speak for alot of players when i say thanks for keeping fresh a quality site.i have internet specificialy for wis. (carlnault - Hall of Famer - 8:50 PM)
Thanks. Since we keep receiving great feedback via customer support, the forums, league forums, sitemail, etc., the ideas for improvements and additions never stops. Fielding stats and lefty/righty splits are probably next on the list according to user requests.
55% was better. You were right the first time. The users just didn't want to give up one of their toys. BTW for those who care, there are CS for AL 1914-15, 1920 on NL 1915, 1920-25, 1951 on Curious as to why WIS will use deadball, 1921-46 and modern, as opposed to say before 1919 and after 1919. Why 1921-46? (bkoron - Prospect - 8:56 PM)
From analyzing the data, there was enough of a shift between periods to merit unique formulas. It resulted in better numbers across the board. A college professor that teaches Probability and Statistics helped us out with this one (darn Redhawks).
The most durable of all the deadball pitchers, 1885 John Clarkson, did indeed pitch about 64% of his team's games, and if you give him 110% that would be right about 70%. BUT, Clarkson certainly was NOT at 100% in all 64% of the team games he started. So if you give him 70% at 100% before you start fatiguing him, you are definitely allowing him to pitch more effectively in the Sim than he did in his RL season in 1885. A 55% fatigue threshhold is probably much more realistic than 70%. (lx88aod - Newbie - 9:00 PM)
If he was less than 100% in some outings then he must have been better than 100% in his other outings. Since we use a player's totals for the season, this is incorporated. And since pitch counts matter, too, he won't be able to pitch more than he did in real life.
Is there a platoon differential in WIS? How much of one? Is it universal? Given the amount of data collection in the last 30 years and the fact that it's a single-season game, you could get pretty damn specific for recent seasons. Before then, you could go with Retrosheet back to the '60s, but before then, there's nothing. (bkoron - Prospect - 9:01 PM)
We currently use constants for the 4 scenarios for all players thoughout history. When we begin saving/displaying split stats, we'll probably make the move to use actual numbers for the seasons that are available.
Time's up and the Red Sox are still trailing. Thanks for your participation. We hope you enjoy the update. Remember, I'll be doing another dev chat in two weeks to handle any post-update questions.