I've got a Junior who is "on the Fence" at #47, just wondering what my chances are he's staying.

I wouldn't bother trying to predict it. The system is random AF.

He’s “on the fence”. That means he can go either way, if the draft gets to him. At 47, it will get to him, probably end of first round, beginning of second. So it’s just a matter of whether he says yes or no. Odds are probably in the vicinity of 50-50, as “on the fence” would suggest.

So trying to figure all of this out, if you're "on the fence" is it automatically everyone having the same odds or does it depend on your draft board position? For instance, #25 on the fence would be higher than #45 and being on the fence, so #25 would be more likely to be drafted or do they both have the same odds of getting drafted?

Posted by thewizard17 on 9/26/2018 10:23:00 PM (view original):
So trying to figure all of this out, if you're "on the fence" is it automatically everyone having the same odds or does it depend on your draft board position? For instance, #25 on the fence would be higher than #45 and being on the fence, so #25 would be more likely to be drafted or do they both have the same odds of getting drafted?

My suspicion is that probability goes up within each class as you get higher. So an on the fence soph at 16 is a little more likely than an on the fence soph at 25. And an on the fence jr at 32 is more likely to go than at 100. But we’re probably talking a handful or two worth of percentage points within those categories. And I also suspect that as guys high up the board decide to stay, the guys below them get slightly more likely, because they move up the board.

a few notes

1. Some guys go EE who dont even make the Big Board
2. I'd say 50-50 is a good rough guess for your guy
3. Refine that guess by counting

- graduating guys ahead of him - they will get drafted
- likely going guys ahead of him - a very large percentage of them will go EE - I have not calculated but I think say 80 or 90 percent
- how many on the fence guys ahead of him on the Board - if they are ahead of him, maybe guess apx 60 percent will go EE
- likely staying ahead of him- small percentage will go

now, look at those numbers and think about how that matches up with the number of folks to be drafted

Right now there are 12 guys ahead of him who are either likely staying or on the fence. So in a worst case scenario, he would be setting at #35. Plus all of the likely going who don't, would raise him higher. I'll know soon enough I guess.

Posted by fd343ny on 9/27/2018 9:19:00 AM (view original):
a few notes

1. Some guys go EE who dont even make the Big Board
2. I'd say 50-50 is a good rough guess for your guy
3. Refine that guess by counting

- graduating guys ahead of him - they will get drafted
- likely going guys ahead of him - a very large percentage of them will go EE - I have not calculated but I think say 80 or 90 percent
- how many on the fence guys ahead of him on the Board - if they are ahead of him, maybe guess apx 60 percent will go EE
- likely staying ahead of him- small percentage will go

now, look at those numbers and think about how that matches up with the number of folks to be drafted

Here's the data I have

It appears that Inels are broken. Inel SRs are listed as On the Fence no matter their # on the big board. And they leave at a rate FAR less than other On the Fence players. Out of 26 such players I've tracked, only TWO of them went EE. And some of them were top ten on the big board including the #1 guy one time. broken.

Jr ineligibles are also “on the fence” far down the board, far past where regular sophomores are “likely staying”. So it works both ways. Is it “broken?” I don’t know, I didn’t design it. You’d have to ask seble if there is a reason why ineligibles are treated differently for draft status.