ODL 86 Over/Unders Topic

copernicus
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Posted by savoybg on 11/4/2022 6:23:00 PM (view original):
As for defense, I've had a bunch of games where a player on the other team has gone like 17 for 28 while being guarded by a 100 defender.
depending on how finely calibrated they are statistical modeling systems will often output extreme random outcomes - our little simmy is not exactly finely calibrated so anecdotes such as this abound
11/4/2022 8:25 PM (edited)
savoybg
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Posted by copernicus on 11/4/2022 8:17:00 PM (view original):
Posted by Midge on 11/4/2022 5:04:00 PM (view original):
When copernicus said that a 50 defense is net neutral I think what he was saying was that a player with a 50 defensive rating will not affect the shooting ability of whoever is shooting the ball. Anyone above 50 starts knocking points off of the shooting percentage and anyone below 50 is going to make their opponent a better shooter. Any team in this league who averages a 50 defensive rating is going to be a team with bad defense. Teams in the ODL play better defense than your typical real life team.
that is what I was trying to say - well stated
Yet we get games all the time in these leagues with scores like 155-145. How good can the defense be with scores like that?

You rarely see games like we saw a lot in the mid-90s, like 87-79 or 91-80. It may have had more to do with game pace than defense, and most teams in the sim play an uptempo offense. Or it may just be that in the sim we rarely give any appreciable minutes to guys who shoot below 45%.

I assume there have been draft leagues here where only one season has been used, like for instance drafting 24 teams from the 27 real life teams in the 1992-93 NBA season. In that case almost all the lesser players would have to be picked, and many would have to be in rotations on teams, as they were in real life.

In the sim there's too much of great offensive players being guarded by great defensive players. So it becomes 56% shooters being maybe held to 53% by great defenders, but leagues are still high scoring.

When you have these kind of all star leagues in baseball sims it ends up being all about home runs, as the great pitching and fielding can keep down the batting averages, but they can't stop the home runs. So great pitchers will face mainly big home run hitters all the time, ending up in players hitting like .230, but with 38 or 44 home runs, and top pitchers allowing 38 or 45 or more home runs in a 250 inning season.

Unless the pool of players is severely limited by the league theme there are never enough lesser quality players in the leagues.



11/4/2022 8:44 PM
steelers821
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Posted by chewy3344 on 11/4/2022 8:04:00 PM (view original):
We should have included a tiebreaker on the over/unders for how many posts savoy will make this season. Wow, you make leagues very interesting with the commentary and debates but I have not done this much reading since college.
Finally someone who puts my pointless ramblings to shame.
11/4/2022 9:15 PM
robusk
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Posted by chewy3344 on 11/4/2022 8:04:00 PM (view original):
We should have included a tiebreaker on the over/unders for how many posts savoy will make this season. Wow, you make leagues very interesting with the commentary and debates but I have not done this much reading since college.
11/4/2022 9:30 PM
robusk
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Posted by copernicus on 11/4/2022 8:15:00 PM (view original):
Posted by robusk on 11/4/2022 6:54:00 PM (view original):
I’ve probably pushed my leftist agenda more than anyone, but I think the hate America thing was a joke guys. Keep it moving. We might summon Amerk for crying out loud.
this

it was clearly a joke aimed at berk's rich-getting-richer critique of the division draft system

yes, capitalism is imperfect and needs some socialist trimmings (some of which we already do enjoy) to offset its more exploitative tendencies. And anyone who has ever worked for a large corporation knows that profits over people and short-term earnings over long-term vision is the mammon of the corporate class (which includes me so calm the f down).

sigh - what a world, what a world
Hitting your stride here bud.
11/4/2022 9:31 PM
robusk
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Wait until savoybg uncovers the Bob Cousy posts.
11/4/2022 9:33 PM
copernicus
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only a matter of time...
11/4/2022 10:00 PM
savoybg
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Posted by robusk on 11/4/2022 9:33:00 PM (view original):
Wait until savoybg uncovers the Bob Cousy posts.
My rating system has real life Cousy as overrated, and he's certainly not real good in this sim, unless he is only playing against players from his own era.

https://www.whatifsports.com/forums/Posts.aspx?topicID=534820
11/4/2022 10:17 PM
robusk
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Posted by savoybg on 11/4/2022 10:17:00 PM (view original):
Posted by robusk on 11/4/2022 9:33:00 PM (view original):
Wait until savoybg uncovers the Bob Cousy posts.
My rating system has real life Cousy as overrated, and he's certainly not real good in this sim, unless he is only playing against players from his own era.

https://www.whatifsports.com/forums/Posts.aspx?topicID=534820
Thanks for sharing left wing all3.

Can't remember if copernicus was the other side of the table on this one or not, but I recall making the case that Cousy would struggle to make a high end varsity HS team in 2022. He literally stared at the floor when he dribbled, could only dribble with one hand, had poor agility, played super stiff and upright, couldn't shoot... I am not one of these "all the old players suck" kind of guys. Lots of them are good. I think Nate Thurmond is like a top 150 all time player! Kareem is arguably better than Jordan. Jerry West is significantly better than Kobe. I just think Cousy is pure butt and people pretending he isn't butt are drunk on nostalgia.
11/4/2022 11:06 PM
riftonapple
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My sincerest apologies for not getting around to doing standard evals. I would have loved to have done them in a nice, organized manner like others have done such a great job of in the past but it’s just a hassle not having a laptop. (My personal laptop broke, my high school junior was using his for homework, and my work laptop blocks this site). I will make some comments and observations if only so I can look back at the end of the season to learn for myself a few things. The comments to follow are based solely on the players drafted and not on the full teams you all have built and I do get confused some with the draft day trades that go on but here goes…….
11/4/2022 11:14 PM
chewy3344
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A tool that helps me cope with work blocking the WIS site issue is to view rosters on your phone and type in a google doc using the keyboard on your work laptop. Then open the google doc on your phone and copy and paste that into a post using your phone.
11/4/2022 11:20 PM
riftonapple
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Of course I’ll start with myself….I don’t think I could have done a better job with my 1st 5 picks. I mean I could have taken A.D. again and tried to replicate the magic from last year but I wanted to have a different team and Kareem is excellent. I am not enthusiastic about my 6th and 7th round picks and I did not have any epiphanies while building out my squad like last season. I’d put my starting 5 Kareem, Walton, M. Porter, THad Young, and G Payton up against anyone’s but I predict barely squeaking into the playoffs as a 5-6 seed.
11/4/2022 11:22 PM
robusk
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Posted by riftonapple on 11/4/2022 11:14:00 PM (view original):
My sincerest apologies for not getting around to doing standard evals. I would have loved to have done them in a nice, organized manner like others have done such a great job of in the past but it’s just a hassle not having a laptop. (My personal laptop broke, my high school junior was using his for homework, and my work laptop blocks this site). I will make some comments and observations if only so I can look back at the end of the season to learn for myself a few things. The comments to follow are based solely on the players drafted and not on the full teams you all have built and I do get confused some with the draft day trades that go on but here goes…….
I also have a cloud based VPN I host that bypasses any of that BS (basically just a lightweight pihole), as well as blocking any tracking or ads. I could give you the Wireguard config for it.
11/4/2022 11:25 PM (edited)
robusk
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Posted by riftonapple on 11/4/2022 11:22:00 PM (view original):
Of course I’ll start with myself….I don’t think I could have done a better job with my 1st 5 picks. I mean I could have taken A.D. again and tried to replicate the magic from last year but I wanted to have a different team and Kareem is excellent. I am not enthusiastic about my 6th and 7th round picks and I did not have any epiphanies while building out my squad like last season. I’d put my starting 5 Kareem, Walton, M. Porter, THad Young, and G Payton up against anyone’s but I predict barely squeaking into the playoffs as a 5-6 seed.
I like the starting five but it seems real expensive. How do you feel about the bench?
11/4/2022 11:24 PM
riftonapple
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I really like Raggedclaws’ squad. Gobert is a monster, Kidd assists, D, and rbs at PG. Montrezl is a fav of mine with his high efg and U. Favors and T. Harris are solid and I think Oladipo is underrated and could potentially do for u what Pippen did for me last year. Just looking at this draft, I would say this team is a contender for the Chip.
11/4/2022 11:28 PM
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